Nashville Predators talk - The Offseason

[hido]

Obviously the “original Jeannot” was a much better player than Smith or Trenin, but I’m sure our management will be well aware of what all the factors are which have contributed to Jeannot’s precipitous decline. Absent such knowledge I would take a chance on Jeannot for something like a 4th round pick since we do have ample Cap room, because if he ever does bounce back even partially he can be an effective player. But I suspect there are health-related reasons why he won’t ever bounce back, unfortunately.

From reading the Lightning board, they would take a bag of used pucks for him. A 4th would be way too high.

 

[herzausstein]

From reading the Lightning board, they would take a bag of used pucks for him. A 4th would be way too high.

I think they're just hoping not to pay

 

[Kat Predator]

I took that to mean Tampa would give someone a 4th just to take TJ off their cap.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Just don't see the point on a roster that already has Sizzler, Big Sexy, Jankowski, and Smith. He makes like twice as much as the latter 3 do, as well, and if he's not shooting 20%, he's not any better.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Just don't see the point on a roster that already has Sizzler, Big Sexy, Jankowski, and Smith. He makes like twice as much as the latter 3 do, as well, and if he's not shooting 20%, he's not any better.

He’ll be a better hitter and fighter than those guys regardless. Ymmv if you think that matters or not. I also think that first year version even shooting 10% would be better in most other aspects of the game as well. But since that version of him apparently doesn’t exist anymore (and didn’t even in his next season with us), then it’s moot. He’s not the same player anymore, unfortunately.

 

[Kat Predator]

He’ll be a better hitter and fighter than those guys regardless. Ymmv if you think that matters or not. I also think that first year version even shooting 10% would be better in most other aspects of the game as well. But since that version of him apparently doesn’t exist anymore (and didn’t even in his next season with us), then it’s moot. He’s not the same player anymore, unfortunately.

Also importantly, we're not the same team anymore. Hinote especially talked about how they wanted a heavy physical game with league leading numbers in hits and fights. Jeannot was a guy that fit that strategy.

Brunette seems to be prioritizing speed, positioning, and quick decision making in all 3 zones. Smith is actually the superior player in those attributes to Jeannot. It was great to have Jeannot at his peak and great for us that he came out of nowhere and elevated himself to have "an entire draft" in perceived value. But at this point and now with his injuries, he's looking like a flash in the pan.

We're not going to be able to reassemble Trenin, Sissons, and Jeannot anyway. Sissons will have to move on and make some other players look more valuable.

 

[Scoresberg]

Isn't this quite obvious?

https://x.com/i/web/status/1797984446119022686

 

[herzausstein]

Isn't this quite obvious?

https://x.com/i/web/status/1797984446119022686

Sounds like they want to add some players to help them now and add a goalie. Not sure what all they're looking for outside of the goalie obviously but Saros for the 1st and one of Allen/Daws/Schmid as a baseline is a decent start. I'd love to also add either Bahl or Casey as well. We can send them a mixture of Tomasino/Fabbro/Glass to close whatever perceived gap there is. Maybe exchange holtz for tomasino etc.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

FWIW, excluding draft years of players that haven't really had enough time to develop yet, last 10 #10 overalls:
-Perfetti (3rd line winger+)
-Podkolzin (fringe NHLer)
-Bouchard (top pairing d-man)
-Tippett (2nd line winger+)
-Jost (fringe NHLer)
-Rantanen (1st line winger)
-Ritchie (3rd/4th line winger)
-Nicushkin (2nd line winger)
-Koekkoek (bust)
-Brodin (top/middle pairing d-man)

Trading Saros and only getting #10 back feels like not enough but also too much. With our drafting history (sorry Barry, I'm just pessimistic at this point) I would expect us to miss on the pick if that's what we got in return. I'd be very leery of having to add on to Saros to get that back.

 

[herzausstein]

FWIW, excluding draft years of players that haven't really had enough time to develop yet, last 10 #10 overalls:
-Perfetti (3rd line winger+)
-Podkolzin (fringe NHLer)
-Bouchard (top pairing d-man)
-Tippett (2nd line winger+)
-Jost (fringe NHLer)
-Rantanen (1st line winger)
-Ritchie (3rd/4th line winger)
-Nicushkin (2nd line winger)
-Koekkoek (bust)
-Brodin (top/middle pairing d-man)

Trading Saros and only getting #10 back feels like not enough but also too much. With our drafting history (sorry Barry, I'm just pessimistic at this point) I would expect us to miss on the pick if that's what we got in return. I'd be very leery of having to add on to Saros to get that back.

It all depends on who you draft.
Dobson - 12th overall 2018
Necas/N. Suzuki - 12th/13th overall 2017
McAvoy - 14th overall 2016
Barzal - 16th overall 2015
Larkin - 15th overall 2014

There's examples in pretty much every draft where a bust or lesser player picked at 10th overall had a better player picked close after. Koekkoek was followed by Filip Forsberg at 11th. Jost followed by McAvoy at 14th, Chychrun at 16th, Tage Thompson at 26th.

Comes down to is there a prospect that the scouts absolutely love at that pick that they think can turn into the player the roster really needs? Is there that 1C, 1RHD there?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't think it's only about looking at the history of #10 draft picks. Because the decision to trade Saros isn't going to come down to who we think we might get out of that pick (4 or 5 years from now or whatever it will take for them to develop). It's going to come down to evaluating Saros' performance, his contract expectations, and how competitive we need our team to be in the shorter term.

If the organization feels it needs to maximize its odds of maintaining a minimal level of competitiveness, and if Saros' contractual demands aren't crazy, then we'll keep him, we won't care that 1 in 10 past #10 picks turns out to be a star player. If we determine instead that we can take the risk of not being competitive (or even actively want to tank), or if Saros' contract demands are too extravagant, then we'll trade him... and then it's not going to be about the value of the #10 pick in isolation, it's going to be the value of that pick in relation to any other offers we might have on the table for Saros because we'll just take the best offer regardless.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I don't think it's only about looking at the history of #10 draft picks. Because the decision to trade Saros isn't going to come down to who we think we might get out of that pick (4 or 5 years from now or whatever it will take for them to develop). It's going to come down to evaluating Saros' performance, his contract expectations, and how competitive we need our team to be in the shorter term.

If the organization feels it needs to maximize its odds of maintaining a minimal level of competitiveness, and if Saros' contractual demands aren't crazy, then we'll keep him, we won't care that 1 in 10 past #10 picks turns out to be a star player. If we determine instead that we can take the risk of not being competitive (or even actively want to tank), or if Saros' contract demands are too extravagant, then we'll trade him... and then it's not going to be about the value of the #10 pick in isolation, it's going to be the value of that pick in relation to any other offers we might have on the table for Saros because we'll just take the best offer regardless.

Yeah trading Saros for a return that is primarily futures based (be that the #10 pick or someone else) seems like the least likely option for us. If the Saros contract talks go sideways and there isn't any better offer out there it could happen but I would think getting someone who improves our roster now (Marner, Necas, etc.) seems more likely given our other moves to this point.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Yeah trading Saros for a return that is primarily futures based (be that the #10 pick or someone else) seems like the least likely option for us. If the Saros contract talks go sideways and there isn't any better offer out there it could happen but I would think getting someone who improves our roster now (Marner, Necas, etc.) seems more likely given our other moves to this point.

I'd be much more interested in pursuing a Marner deal (I'm on the anti-Necas train though) for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is while he can be a bust here, we at least know his established quality and don't have to wait 4-5 years to find out he was a bust/bad pick/we can't develop anyone. We just always pop up anytime there's mention of New Jersey actually fixing their goalie issue.

 

[Gh24]

I don't think it's very productive to stare at a single draft position when assessing the trade value, but rather a range of positions as it's demonstrated above.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I read that as Jersey trying to drum up business from someone besides Barry...probably because he doesn't like what Barry is asking for in return for Saros.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Yeah trading Saros for a return that is primarily futures based (be that the #10 pick or someone else) seems like the least likely option for us. If the Saros contract talks go sideways and there isn't any better offer out there it could happen but I would think getting someone who improves our roster now (Marner, Necas, etc.) seems more likely given our other moves to this point.

I agree with this, at least if I was GM. I know the 10th would be our best pick, but we have 87 picks after that with a good prospect pool already in place. I'd rather keep Saros (and shop him elsewhere) and use our 2nds or 3rds and move up. After making the playoffs, I think we're in a good spot to add young, ready players now. The farm is looking good and we'll be adding many more to that stockpile over the next two drafts. We need ready players.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I read that as Jersey trying to drum up business from someone besides Barry...probably because he doesn't like what Barry is asking for in return for Saros.

Fitzgerald wants to keep all his shiny prospects and get his goalie solution for pennies on the dollar. No problem with Trotz not folding on Saros' value.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Fitzgerald wants to keep all his shiny prospects and get his goalie solution for pennies on the dollar. No problem with Trotz not folding on Saros' value.

And realistically, if all those other goalies like Ullmark, Markstrom, and Binnington are available from teams that are more motivated sellers than the Preds are, there's really no reason for Trotz to feel like he has to cut his asking price to compete with that market supply. He can't compete with a saturated market without hurting his team. He has no reason to do so. (That we know of).

The only reason he could cut his asking price if he decides that he simply can't afford Saros' next contract and wants to get "whatever he can" before Saros walks as a UFA. Which per his statement the other day sounds like he has no worries whatsoever about.

 

[herzausstein]

I imagine New Jersey is going to try and cheap out. Trotz is really asking for a whole lot for saros. All the other goalies supposedly available have their downfalls though and Saros is the only one without trade protection.

Markstrom has only had 1 really good season over the last 4 and is 34. Also have a full NMC

Ullmark has a 15 team no trade list and can pretty easily dictate if he goes anywhere or where to.

Binnington has an 18 team no trade list to go with the rest of the antics that go with him.

 

[BigFatCat999]

I wonder if a NJ trade looks like this:

#22 + Saros

#10 + Mercer + one of NJ's HUGE d-men + Schmid

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I imagine New Jersey is going to try and cheap out. Trotz is really asking for a whole lot for saros. All the other goalies supposedly available have their downfalls though and Saros is the only one without trade protection.

Markstrom has only had 1 really good season over the last 4 and is 34. Also have a full NMC

Ullmark has a 15 team no trade list and can pretty easily dictate if he goes anywhere or where to.

Binnington has an 18 team no trade list to go with the rest of the antics that go with him.

Fitz whined about people wanting legit value for their goaltenders at the deadline. He's assembled his little collection of prospects and players and doesn't want to part with any of them. He's going to take the lowball route and will likely end up with either a cheaper 2a tender or Jake Allen as his starter next season.

 

[Scoresberg]

Sounds like Barry is indeed going after Pesce this summer:

From Lebrun:

"UFA defenseman Brett Pesce is likely among Nashville’s targets come July 1, but of course there are other options."

 

[herzausstein]

Sounds like Barry is indeed going after Pesce this summer:

From Lebrun:

"UFA defenseman Brett Pesce is likely among Nashville’s targets come July 1, but of course there are other options."

I'd imagine Trotz is looking to upgrade our RHD. They didn't seem to trust Fabbro and there are better options out there to spend our capspace than Carrier.

I hope he will atleast enquire on
Pesce
Guentzel
Reinhart
Stephenson
Lindholm
Montour
Zadorov

See what they want and make moves if it makes sense.

 

[Scoresberg]

Also, the talk about Shestherkhin getting 10 mil in his next deal makes me believe there’s a snowball’s chance in hell Saros comes in below 8.

 

[Armourboy]

Also, the talk about Shestherkhin getting 10 mil in his next deal makes me believe there’s a snowball’s chance in hell Saros comes in below 8.

Then we move on. Saros is good, but he's not worth 8+ let alone 10 over multiple seasons.

Fitz whined about people wanting legit value for their goaltenders at the deadline. He's assembled his little collection of prospects and players and doesn't want to part with any of them. He's going to take the lowball route and will likely end up with either a cheaper 2a tender or Jake Allen as his starter next season.

Yep and I have a feeling it ends up getting him fired.