I am still thinking it's coaching more than "luck". Teams get as much good luck as bad luck situationally, and I don't think it bunches up for season-long stretches.
You can say, "but but it's the same coach as last year!". Yet I think there's sort of a 2nd law of thermodynamics thing going on with hockey teams at times too, a new coach imposes his order at first, except gradually over time entropy wins out. The descent to the natural state of disorder just happens more quickly with bad/incompetent coaches, which is mostly what we're seeing here. It's not really luck.
And I definitely believe that coaching means more to team success than most of the player personnel does. I think it's why Trotz is the wrong choice as a GM, because for all that he might believe in how important the coach is, he is completely blind to how important the
right coach is. He thinks the coach fundamentally
can't be wrong, that inevitably if you get the right group of players who will listen and play the way the coach wants them to play, then that's how you fix poor performance. We know he has trouble with ratios and fractions right? He hasn't learned what 20:1 means yet either.