Confirmed with Link: (NAS/MTL) Shea Weber for P.K. Subban

[triggrman]

https://www.nhl.com/news/top-14-defensemen-excel-at-both-ends-of-the-ice/c-729524

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/and-no...semen-rankings-for-2015-16-203303273-nhl.html

From the yahoo sports link, "Shea Weber, Nashville: The template for what you want in a No. 1 defenseman."

They ranked Subban 2 spots ahead of Weber.

I like the trade, think Subban will be very good here. But, to listen to most of the comments here, he is the best defenseman ever.

I think it's going to take a long time to find the chemistry as you have a crunching defender in Weber vs. a more finesse type guy.

Subban might be on the rise as he's younger and plays a different style, but I think Josi is going to decline a bit without Weber at his side.

when I read that nhl.com article I was like wow, then I noticed it was from the 2014/2015 season. Even the yahoo article was prior to this past season.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

I know some of you feel the end of an era but know that you just got one of the most exciting players in the league. If some of you like to go to the games, you know you will get a good show.

Subban is famous for his flash, but that isn't actually what makes him great. The great overlooked secret about Subban is the incredible degree to which he activates the offense of his forwards by putting them in a position to succeed.

The last 3 seasons, Montreal basically had him chained to the blueline in the offensive zone in comparison to the freedom the other great offensive defenseman in the league have and he still had a massive positive effect due to how much offensive opportunity his teammates got from his puck carrying and playmaking from the back-end. The flash of Subban ultimately conceals a lot of his substance.

Subban's a bit like a baseball power hitter who is famous for his home runs but whose actual value is in how often he draws a walk. You remember the one big spectacular move, but his real value is the 20 high skill plays with the puck he makes game in and game out.

 

[jwhouk]

Subban's a bit like a baseball power hitter who is famous for his home runs but whose actual value is in how often he draws a walk. You remember the one big spectacular move, but his real value is the 20 high skill plays with the puck he makes game in and game out.

So we have the hockey version of Giancarlos Stanton?

 

[bdub24]

Thanks for posting this here! I enjoyed it.

 

[jwhouk]

P. K. Freakin'. SUBBAN.

I'm still stunned. And excited.

Baby, I'm ready to go.

 

[FFWRX]

P. K. Freakin'. SUBBAN.

I'm still stunned. And excited.

Baby, I'm ready to go.

And now that song is stuck in my head.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Hello Predatorians, I have an analytics question for anyone here who can answer it. The habs board is currently almost literally on fire debating the Weber Subban thread. On one hand are posters who are stoked about getting Weber, citing mostly authoritarian arguments for why the trade was good e.g. we don't know all the facts, I trust the experts to make the right call, hockey canada etc. etc. On the other hand is a mostly analytical argument that Weber is not really the same player he once was, revolving mostly around the hero chart comparison between the two players.

However, there is one persistent question: the Gaustad exemption. The argument goes like this. Gaustad sucked balls, and Weber had to play with him a lot, so that mostly explains why Shea's overall possession stats haven't been so hot recently. It makes sense as a narrative, but is this really the whole story? The only data that I've seen has been for the 2014-15 season, and not this latest season. How much did Shea play with Gaustad last season, and what was the effect on his possession numbers?

In your opinion, is Shea the same player he was in 2011?

 

[NSH615]

Hello Predatorians, I have an analytics question for anyone here who can answer it. The habs board is currently almost literally on fire debating the Weber Subban thread. On one hand are posters who are stoked about getting Weber, citing mostly authoritarian arguments for why the trade was good e.g. we don't know all the facts, I trust the experts to make the right call, hockey canada etc. etc. On the other hand is a mostly analytical argument that Weber is not really the same player he once was, revolving mostly around the hero chart comparison between the two players.

However, there is one persistent question: the Gaustad exemption. The argument goes like this. Gaustad sucked balls, and Weber had to play with him a lot, so that mostly explains why Shea's overall possession stats haven't been so hot recently. It makes sense as a narrative, but is this really the whole story? The only data that I've seen has been for the 2014-15 season, and not this latest season. How much did Shea play with Gaustad last season, and what was the effect on his possession numbers?

In your opinion, is Shea the same player he was in 2011?

I can't 100% answer your question but.....If the team was leading within the last 2-4 minutes, typically you saw Gaustad out there at least 2 minutes of the last 3 or 4 and you also would see Weber out there. During these most critical draws, Gaustad (from the eye test) seemed to lose alot more than he should. You also have to take into account that Nystrom was typically also out there during this time.

 

[nomorekids]

Hello Predatorians, I have an analytics question for anyone here who can answer it. The habs board is currently almost literally on fire debating the Weber Subban thread. On one hand are posters who are stoked about getting Weber, citing mostly authoritarian arguments for why the trade was good e.g. we don't know all the facts, I trust the experts to make the right call, hockey canada etc. etc. On the other hand is a mostly analytical argument that Weber is not really the same player he once was, revolving mostly around the hero chart comparison between the two players.

However, there is one persistent question: the Gaustad exemption. The argument goes like this. Gaustad sucked balls, and Weber had to play with him a lot, so that mostly explains why Shea's overall possession stats haven't been so hot recently. It makes sense as a narrative, but is this really the whole story? The only data that I've seen has been for the 2014-15 season, and not this latest season. How much did Shea play with Gaustad last season, and what was the effect on his possession numbers?

In your opinion, is Shea the same player he was in 2011?

It's going to be difficult to pin Weber's issues on Paul Gaustad. Gaustad played 11-14 minutes on most nights, and 60 percent of his draws. Weber played 25 or 26 minutes, and yes, he was typically deployed with Gaustad in d-zone situations. You have to look at the incidents after the draws to see where Weber's weak point is. Gaustad would win the puck back, and collectively the MO was to get the puck to Josi to break out. Often times, opposing teams knew what and why we did that, and so they took that away and forced Weber to play the puck, which lead to turnovers and negative Corsi events. If you search back I explained all of this in a little more detail, but the gist is: Weber is really good defending the rush. He is not good at maintaining possession and REALLY not good at breaking out. He's a weak puckhandler and an iffy passer. You really need someone to do the heavy lifting and forwards that are good at supporting the puck in the defensive end. If you keep the puck off his stick in the d zone and use him to his strengths, you will love him.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I can't 100% answer your question but.....If the team was leading within the last 2-4 minutes, typically you saw Gaustad out there at least 2 minutes of the last 3 or 4 and you also would see Weber out there. During these most critical draws, Gaustad (from the eye test) seemed to lose alot more than he should. You also have to take into account that Nystrom was typically also out there during this time.

So there does seem to be some truth to it, but you really can't blame all of it on Gaustad, seems like.

It's going to be difficult to pin Weber's issues on Paul Gaustad. Gaustad played 11-14 minutes on most nights, and 60 percent of his draws. Weber played 25 or 26 minutes, and yes, he was typically deployed with Gaustad in d-zone situations. You have to look at the incidents after the draws to see where Weber's weak point is. Gaustad would win the puck back, and collectively the MO was to get the puck to Josi to break out. Often times, opposing teams knew what and why we did that, and so they took that away and forced Weber to play the puck, which lead to turnovers and negative Corsi events. If you search back I explained all of this in a little more detail, but the gist is: Weber is really good defending the rush. He is not good at maintaining possession and REALLY not good at breaking out. He's a weak puckhandler and an iffy passer. You really need someone to do the heavy lifting and forwards that are good at supporting the puck in the defensive end. If you keep the puck off his stick in the d zone and use him to his strengths, you will love him.

Well...****.

That's not good news. We have essentially two options to play him with, in my eyes. Beaulieu and Markov. At this point, every season Markov plays could conceivably be his last, so I'm not exactly excited about the idea of him being Weber's personal first-pass chaperone. Beaulieu is a good skater....

Thanks for your reply. Any idea when you made that post so I can narrow my search function? I'd be interested in reading it, and perhaps using it to kick the hornets nest back on the habs board again.

Also, amazing username and signature combo. It is weird and gross.

edit: Also, the lack of support from habs forwards is perhaps the most maddening tendency that I've ever seen the habs have, and goes a long way to explain Subban's giveaway numbers. Seriously, they just sit there at the blueline, waiting.

 

[nomorekids]

I can't 100% answer your question but.....If the team was leading within the last 2-4 minutes, typically you saw Gaustad out there at least 2 minutes of the last 3 or 4 and you also would see Weber out there. During these most critical draws, Gaustad (from the eye test) seemed to lose alot more than he should. You also have to take into account that Nystrom was typically also out there during this time.

That doesn't explain it though, you would need a huge amount of events to so utterly skew the numbers. You can also break it down by period and see that the third is fairly close to the second and first. The only place you see a significant spike in his numbers is when the team is down...but that's typical.

 

[nomorekids]

So there does seem to be some truth to it, but you really can't blame all of it on Gaustad, seems like.



Well...****.

That's not good news. We have essentially two options to play him with, in my eyes. Beaulieu and Markov. At this point, every season Markov plays could conceivably be his last, so I'm not exactly excited about the idea of him being Weber's personal first-pass chaperone. Beaulieu is a good skater....

Thanks for your reply. Any idea when you made that post so I can narrow my search function? I'd be interested in reading it, and perhaps using it to kick the hornets nest back on the habs board again.

Also, amazing username and signature combo. It is weird and gross.

edit: Also, the lack of support from habs forwards is perhaps the most maddening tendency that I've ever seen the habs have, and goes a long way to explain Subban's giveaway numbers. Seriously, they just sit there at the blueline, waiting.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=120443551&postcount=575

 

[NotProkofievian]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=120443551&postcount=575

Thanks breh.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Good grief, all this analytics nonsense is enough to drive somebody nuts. Here are some facts(non-analytic) about Weber. He is excellent with the stick, poking away pucks, etc. He'll destroy anyone who comes near him. Players avoid his side of the ice. He can and does clear the front of the net. His job with the Preds on breakouts was to get the puck to Josi in a good position to skate out; he did that very well. All in all he is extremely good defensively, always playing against the opponents very best players. He kills penalties as the number 1 pairing. He is 1st pairing on the power play. And he'll throw in about 20 goals and 50 points. And his stats over his career bear all that out. He is a leader of the 1st caliber. Take it from me, Montreal got one of the premier defensive man in the league. Is he going to slow down? I don't know we'll see. But, for heavens sake, let's let him play and see.

Okay. I don't think anyone would argue against what you've said here. My concern is that we just don't have the supporting cast to take advantage of the qualities you've described in Weber.

We're basically just hoping that Beaulieu becomes Roman Josi. Or Sergachev, but he just turned 18 a few weeks ago, and plays RD besides.

 

[PredsV82]

The question "is he the same layer he as in 2011?" is ridiculous of course.
For good or ill he's 5 years older with five more years of wear and tear on his body but also with 5 more years of experience and quite possibly an understanding that his time as an elite player is limited which may either drive him even harder to win now or make him more cautious with himself.

Analytics are a tool, but like any tool, depend largely on the user of the tool. Anyone who would take advanced stats and make a declaration regarding whether he is "good" or "bad" without actually watching what happens on the ice when he's out there isn't very smart. Personally, I cannot imagine a scenario in which some fan says "well dammit Weber is out there, we are screwed"

I'm excited to see hat Subban can do for us, but I would undo this trade in a heartbeat right now because I prefer the known to the unknown

 

[Canadienna]

IMO the fact that Subban's advanced numbers are good is proof of the eye test. Watching him play you can see how dangerous he is.

Enjoy Preds Fans! I think watching him play will soothe any hesitation, I'll definitely be tuning in to a few Nashville games this year to watch.

 

[Mass]

Okay. I don't think anyone would argue against what you've said here. My concern is that we just don't have the supporting cast to take advantage of the qualities you've described in Weber.

We're basically just hoping that Beaulieu becomes Roman Josi. Or Sergachev, but he just turned 18 a few weeks ago, and plays RD besides.

You don't want anyone to become Josi. He's the worst defensive player in the league. To be real, Josi made Weber's advanced stats bad. They're more than numbers. They're facts.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Very few players can turn a team around alone, even Weber. And Josi is also a premier player. But Price will be back to add to what is a darn good Montreal team. I would look for them to be in the playoffs and then who knows? Price will love Weber. Montreal's biggest problem doesn't play, he coaches.

That's true, but I was sure he was going to get the axe last year. No idea how he avoided it.

 

[PredsV82]

You don't want anyone to become Josi. He's the worst defensive player in the league. To be real, Josi made Weber's advanced stats bad. They're more than numbers. They're facts.

you forgot the sarcasm smilie....

 

[ottawa]

Hope you guys are following the media in Montréal. A lot of good stuff coming out of the Habs locker room like Markov saying he was shocked about the trade and saying Subban was definitely not a distraction, and they lost a good teammate and person. Galchenyuk said he was also shocked and lost one of his best friends.

Subban is also hosting a Gala, he invited Weber as the special guest of the night. Also offered to show him around Montreal.

 

[ottawa]

Very few players can turn a team around alone, even Weber. And Josi is also a premier player. But Price will be back to add to what is a darn good Montreal team. I would look for them to be in the playoffs and then who knows? Price will love Weber. Montreal's biggest problem doesn't play, he coaches.

Guess who Price trains with in the off-season

 

[Adz]

Hope you guys are following the media in Montréal. A lot of good stuff coming out of the Habs locker room like Markov saying he was shocked about the trade and saying Subban was definitely not a distraction, and they lost a good teammate and person. Galchenyuk said he was also shocked and lost one of his best friends.

Subban is also hosting a Gala, he invited Weber as the special guest of the night. Also offered to show him around Montreal.

That's very nice of him. Somewhat reminiscent of the Jones-Johansen trade where they each offered up their apartment to the other for the short term. One didn't work out but it was still a nice gesture.

Haven't been following the media in Montreal much but I will once the season gets underway. I did see part of the SN interview with Subban.

 

[TMLife*]

I really hope PK continues playing his game and thrives in Nashville.

This was a great deal for the Preds, let Subban fly free and dominate the best he can.

 

[Samuel Culper III]

PK is going to light it up in Nashville. He's been great thus far and Therrien did nothing but hold him back and hamper him. Playing in Lavvy's system, with the talent NSH has put together, Subban is going to be lights out. I've already purchased tickets for Preds games in Dallas this year and am considering taking a trip to NSH with the wife to catch a game or two and enjoy the city. PK is far and away my favorite player around the league.

 

[NSH615]

PK is going to light it up in Nashville. He's been great thus far and Therrien did nothing but hold him back and hamper him. Playing in Lavvy's system, with the talent NSH has put together, Subban is going to be lights out. I've already purchased tickets for Preds games in Dallas this year and am considering taking a trip to NSH with the wife to catch a game or two and enjoy the city. PK is far and away my favorite player around the league.

If you are looking for more bang for your buck, we have 3 weekends of back to backs on Sat & Sun where both games are at home.

Dec 3 & 4 - Devils & Flyers
Feb 11 & 12 - Panthers & Stars
Feb 25 & 26 - Capitals & Oilers