Multiple 50/50 winners

blues10

Registered User
Dec 10, 2010
7,301
3,324
Canada
I wasn't aware there was a minimum and I was already aware that you don't have to be at the game, I was just responding to the hypothetical.

Sorry, I posted while trying to cook supper. Poor multi-tasker.

The minimum 50/50 buy in is $10 for 3 tickets not 10 tickets.

This may help clarify things if someone was buying $1000 worth of tickets a game.

  • Ten dollars ($10.00) for three (3) tickets
  • Twenty dollars ($20.00) for ten (10) tickets
  • Fifty dollars ($50.00) for fifty (50) tickets
  • Eighty dollars ($80.00) for one hundred (100) tickets
True North Youth Foundation - 50/50 Raffle
 

Atoyot

Registered User
Jul 19, 2013
13,859
25,274
If Kyosama's chart is right, wouldn't he have a 3 in 10,000 chance of winning?
@nobody imp0rtant, I have a feeling you are smart in math.
Isn't it .1x.043x.0708?

I'm not sure about the chart because don't they give you deals the more tickets you buy?
That is also assuming he bought 1000 bucks worth of tickets as well.
He would if he only entered those 3 draws that he won, he entered 23 and lost 20 in this hypothetical, that affects the odds.

As for the deals with buying more, that would help his odds. Again, in this very hypothetical scenario.
 

JetsFan815

Replacement Level Poster
Jan 16, 2012
19,696
25,793
Sorry, I posted while trying to cook supper. Poor multi-tasker.

The minimum 50/50 buy in is $10 for 3 tickets not 10 tickets.

This may help clarify things if someone was buying $1000 worth of tickets a game.

  • Ten dollars ($10.00) for three (3) tickets
  • Twenty dollars ($20.00) for ten (10) tickets
  • Fifty dollars ($50.00) for fifty (50) tickets
  • Eighty dollars ($80.00) for one hundred (100) tickets
True North Youth Foundation - 50/50 Raffle

This clears things up a bit. There is a significant discount to bulk buying tickets with the ticket price dropping from $3.33 per ticket to 80 cents a ticket once you buy a pack of 100. Given that incentive... this 4 time winner fella is probably bulk buying a ton of tickets. I assume most people are not gonna bother trying to buy a 100 tickets and instead opt for the $10 for 3 tickets package allowing this guy to get better odds. Would be interesting to know if he has made a 'profit' with this scheme if that's indeed what he's doing.
 
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B33R LEAGUE

"Just another day at the office" -Byfuglien
May 19, 2021
3,313
10,432
Does this allegation warrant an external/impartial investigation of some sort?

Yes.

Are there such authorities?

Dont know.

What would the outcome (repercussions) be if it was determined that these allegations were true?

I would be pretty outraged as a fan.

I would like to follow up on this, but im certain it will not even be addressed by TNSE.

It certainly raises a lot of questions and eyebrows.
 
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buyinnow

Registered User
Mar 7, 2010
353
226
Does this allegation warrant an external/impartial investigation of some sort?

Yes.

Are there such authorities?

Dont know. - Of course there is.

What would the outcome (repercussions) be if it was determined that these allegations were true? -What allegations? and Fraud is a criminal offence.

I would be pretty outraged as a fan.

I would like to follow up on this, but im certain it will not even be addressed by TNSE. - No idea why you would suggest this.

It certainly raises a lot of questions and eyebrows.- So does your post.
 
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B33R LEAGUE

"Just another day at the office" -Byfuglien
May 19, 2021
3,313
10,432
So you dont think it warrants an investigation?

MLLC? WPS?

The Allegation of Fraud.

If my Company was being questioned about Fraud... Yeah, I think I would want to address it, my lawyers might suggest otherwise.

Anyhow. Appreciate you're response. I always welcome an alternative opinion.
 
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Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
14,974
14,585
Winnipeg
This is definitely weird.

Out of 59 draws and $1.1M in 50-50 prizes this season:

Ernest Burelle has won $35,545 on 4 draws out of the 23 between November 27 and February 1. A combined Moose-Jets pot, an early bird pot, and two other Jets pots.
Shawn Purpur won $21,270 on 2 draws out of a possible 6 in an 11 day stretch between January 13 and 23. Another combined Moose-Jets pot, and a regular Jets game pot.
Andrew Schultz won $15,775 on 2 draws at the same game on December 9. The early bird and the main prize.
Britney Erlendson won $39,545 on 2 draws out of 20 in just over a month between Oct 2 and Nov 9. A preseason pot and regular season pot.
Audrey Bird won $8,005 on 2 draws out of 9 in 17 days October 13 - 28. A regular season pot and an early bird.

12/59 (20%) draws won by 5 people. Only about 11% of the total prize money. Burelle has won almost 7% of draws alone.

We have no idea how many tickets these people are buying, but the multiple winners do seem to be winning smaller pots when there would be better odds. Except for Britney Erlendson who won a $37,195 pot, every other multiple winner's pot has been below the average of $19,000. Shawn Purpur won a %16,190 (22nd highest) pot and Burelle's won two just under $12,000.
 

Yukon Joe

Registered User
Aug 3, 2011
6,786
4,817
YWG -> YXY -> YEG
So you dont think it warrants an investigation?

MLLC? WPS?

The Allegation of Fraud.

If my Company was being questioned about Fraud... Yeah, I think I would want to address it, my lawyers might suggest otherwise.

Anyhow. Appreciate you're response. I always welcome an alternative opinion.

LGCA would be the ones responsible for investigating any offence.

You know it's worth an investigation, but it's also not impossible for people to buy just stupid amounts of tickets - and the more you spend, the more tickets per dollar spent you get.
 

nobody imp0rtant

Registered pessimist
May 23, 2018
10,945
18,291


@ICdave has now tweeted about it. I'd like to see a statement about it from the people who run it for sure.


I notice this was cleverly written to avoid any insinuation of wrongdoing. Hey, that Ernest Burelle is one lucky guy, eh? ;)

wink-wink-nudge-nudge.gif
 

AlphaLackey

Registered User
Mar 21, 2013
17,206
25,706
Winnipeg, MB
Extreme Enginerding: The Economics of 50/50 Draws (mikerobe007.ca)

50/50 draws are maybe justified in the sense that the money primarily goes to charities, but as an investment (or even just a source of gambling for fun) they're really probably one of the worst things you can do.

Any gambling enterprise where the entire brand is "how bad the odds are", you can avoid.

Fun fact: the mob used to run what were called "numbers rackets". They couldn't actually do lottery drawings, so they'd say like "the first digits in the stock prices on the 15th, 25th, and 35th listing in tomorrow's NY Times will be the three digit winner" and you would bet on that one-in-one-thousand chance would be.

Nowadays, we know that this doesn't actually give you a true random experience, but for anyone unsophisticated enough to gamble with the mob, it was close enough to a random number.

The mobsters prize? $700 for your $1 bet. With a 1-in-1k chance to get paid $700 for the $1 you paid, that's a return of 70 cents returned on the dollar.

Part of the justification that the feds gave for shutting them down? They were oppressively unfair to the players.

Now, fast forward to the year 2022, where 50/50 lotteries obviously don't return 70 cents on the dollar.

Number of USA state lotteries that return at least 70 cents on the dollar? Zero.

Even in Nevada, where they will literally have one waitress hold your jaw open, a second pour the whiskey down your gullet and a third acting as a spotter, as long as you can make your bet in 15 seconds? It's illegal to pay back less than 75 cents on the dollar.

Hopefully this frames what a colossal rip-off 50/50 lotteries are.

Instead of $10 in 50/50 tickets, ask yourself if you really support the charity? If so, and you really feel that sawbuck burning a hole in your pocket, then donate $5 to that charity, and spend the other $5 on a hot dog at the Dairi Wip or whatever. You'll thank me later.
 

AlphaLackey

Registered User
Mar 21, 2013
17,206
25,706
Winnipeg, MB
LGCA would be the ones responsible for investigating any offence.

You know it's worth an investigation, but it's also not impossible for people to buy just stupid amounts of tickets - and the more you spend, the more tickets per dollar spent you get.

You might buy 1 or 5 tickets. Degenerate whales are buying a thousand. Jim from the office who coordinates the 'lottery pool' might buy be buying ten thousand.
 
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Atoyot

Registered User
Jul 19, 2013
13,859
25,274
Let me be clear: there could also be cheating. But this would be an incredibly trivial thing for any mathematician to analyze in one work week.
Exactly. I've put a lot of effort into pointing out why this doesn't *automatically* prove there's fraud. That doesn't mean there isn't fraud. I'm just putting forth scenarios to show that it's possible - for the people who are saying it's "1 in a billion" (paraphrasing). It's definitely possible, but worth looking at and I hope they did. And now that it's being questioned I hope they have a valid explanation.
 

AlphaLackey

Registered User
Mar 21, 2013
17,206
25,706
Winnipeg, MB
It's Jim from The Office.

holy shit. I literally picked a milquetoast sounding name and paired it with a small-o-Office, and I hit on a well known character.

Such is the power of coincidence.

A reminder: the day after 9/11, the winning number in the New York State "Pick 3" lottery was 9-1-1. That probably sent a million sinners back to church.
 

AlphaLackey

Registered User
Mar 21, 2013
17,206
25,706
Winnipeg, MB
Exactly. I've put a lot of effort into pointing out why this doesn't *automatically* prove there's fraud. That doesn't mean there isn't fraud. I'm just putting forth scenarios to show that it's possible - for the people who are saying it's "1 in a billion" (paraphrasing). It's definitely possible, but worth looking at and I hope they did. And now that it's being questioned I hope they have a valid explanation.

And that's the beauty of my industry; I think of those people who are trying to prove accusations of personal and subtle biases and bigotries, based on small sample sizes. That's a very tough case to build. But something as simple as this? Where every case, every player has a precisely calculable P(Win), P(Loss), and a result? Like that's exactly the kind of math I use when talking about goalie save percent variance, or a team's xWin% versus standings points, or whatever.

And when results are due to cheating, they don't just skirt credulity, they blow it out of the tub. A big part of the reason why they were able to crush the cheaters at Full Tilt Poker was by showing that their win-rate wasn't just "merely" in 1-in-a-million territory, but a number so big that it was on par with winning the Powerball.. twice in a row. Might have been thrice even.
 
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FonRiesen

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
3,280
6,837
Vancouver Island
Any gambling enterprise where the entire brand is "how bad the odds are", you can avoid.

Fun fact: the mob used to run what were called "numbers rackets". They couldn't actually do lottery drawings, so they'd say like "the first digits in the stock prices on the 15th, 25th, and 35th listing in tomorrow's NY Times will be the three digit winner" and you would bet on that one-in-one-thousand chance would be.

Nowadays, we know that this doesn't actually give you a true random experience, but for anyone unsophisticated enough to gamble with the mob, it was close enough to a random number.

The mobsters prize? $700 for your $1 bet. With a 1-in-1k chance to get paid $700 for the $1 you paid, that's a return of 70 cents returned on the dollar.

Part of the justification that the feds gave for shutting them down? They were oppressively unfair to the players.

Now, fast forward to the year 2022, where 50/50 lotteries obviously don't return 70 cents on the dollar.

Number of USA state lotteries that return at least 70 cents on the dollar? Zero.

Even in Nevada, where they will literally have one waitress hold your jaw open, a second pour the whiskey down your gullet and a third acting as a spotter, as long as you can make your bet in 15 seconds? It's illegal to pay back less than 75 cents on the dollar.

Hopefully this frames what a colossal rip-off 50/50 lotteries are.

Instead of $10 in 50/50 tickets, ask yourself if you really support the charity? If so, and you really feel that sawbuck burning a hole in your pocket, then donate $5 to that charity, and spend the other $5 on a hot dog at the Dairi Wip or whatever. You'll thank me later.
I fully agree with your sentiment, but I know people that would say they like the adrenaline rush of the draw: "it's not about winning, it's about fun (and 'helping a good cause' is the excuse to justify playing a losing game)"

To quote U2:
Every breaking wave on the shore
Tells the next one there'll be one more
And every gambler knows that to lose
Is what you're really there for
 
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