Multiple 50/50 winners

[White Out 902]

The idea that some people think this isn't (possible, for legal purposes)criminality is hilarious to me. You all remind me of the rube in casino that got fired for somebody winning the jackpot 3 times and not doing anything

 

[White Out 902]

Okay, so thinking upon it, I'm going to try to assign some probabilities and see what the odds may be.

Clicking on the link, I count 56 games listed. One person has won the 50/50 draw 4 times (presumably, as I didn't count that)

Just based upon the amounts won on Jets games I've been to, I'm guessing the odds of winning one 50/50 draw to be about 1 in 4,000.

So what are the odds one person has won 4 times out of 56 draws?

Here is where I probably make an ass of myself

The odds to not win a 50/50 draw: 3999 ÷ 4000 = 0.99975

The odds to win 4 out of 56 draws = 1 - (0.99975^(56-4)) = ~0.0129175, or about 1.3%.

So a bit unlikely, but not improbable.

*waits for stats gurus to point out his mistakes*

Do you think the odds of winning even one 5050 is 1.3 %?

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Okay, so thinking upon it, I'm going to try to assign some probabilities and see what the odds may be.

Clicking on the link, I count 56 games listed. One person has won the 50/50 draw 4 times (presumably, as I didn't count that)

Just based upon the amounts won on Jets games I've been to, I'm guessing the odds of winning one 50/50 draw to be about 1 in 4,000.

So what are the odds one person has won 4 times out of 56 draws?

Here is where I probably make an ass of myself

The odds to not win a 50/50 draw: 3999 ÷ 4000 = 0.99975

The odds to win 4 out of 56 draws = 1 - (0.99975^(56-4)) = ~0.0129175, or about 1.3%.

So a bit unlikely, but not improbable.

*waits for stats gurus to point out his mistakes*

Dammit, forgot to factor in the odds of winning 4 to that. Which is 0.00025^4 × 1.3% = ~5.08 × 10^-15%. Which is a very small number indeed. (5 out of 1,000,000,000,000,000 times)

*sigh* there's a reason I didn't do well in statistics way back when in school

 

[JetsFan815]

It obviously is?

Do words not have meaning anymore?

Edit: Unless you're just f'n with us and I can't tell anymore

He is implying that there is some funny business going on.

I guess my question would be, if there is something sketchy going on, wouldn't the perpetrators ensure that the same name is never used more than once?

Like, I am not seasoned con artist or anything, but simple logic tells me never ever use the same name more than once.

It is entirely possible that there is a perfectly reasonable and rational explanation for this and all this is explainable by some quirk of the contest. Hopefully TNSE will explain this anomaly and put the speculation to rest.

 

[White Out 902]

He is implying that there is some funny business going on.



It is entirely possible that there is a perfectly reasonable and rational explanation for this and all this is explainable by some quirk of the contest. Hopefully TNSE will explain this anomaly and put the speculation to rest.

Statistically speaking, this is a mathematical impossibility and there's obviously (possibly, for legal purposes) fraud taking place. The only thing that should be happening here is the RCMP should be involved immediately and a public statement that investigation underway

 

[snowkiddin]

If there are shenanigans going on, who was the fool that published this all? I’m no fraudster, but that doesn’t seem like a very good idea.

 

[Atoyot]

The last 2 that the 4 time winner won were pretty small compared to others, the first two also weren't that large. Could be a situation of "I just won $11,000, may as well put $2,000 into the next one and give some back to charity". $2,000 in a $5,000 pot would be a 1 in 5 chance of winning. Not saying that's what happened just trying to think of plausible explanations.

 

[JetsFan815]

Dammit, forgot to factor in the odds of winning 4 to that. Which is 0.00025^4 × 1.3% = ~5.08 × 10^-15%. Which is a very small number indeed. (5 out of 1,000,000,000,000,000 times)

*sigh* there's a reason I didn't do well in statistics way back when in school

For comparison according to the CDC, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are 1 in 500,000 or 5 out of 2,500,000.

My calculation is giving me similar numbers as you but off by a factor of 1000. I am getting (((1/4000) ^ 4) * 56) * 100

= 2.19 * 10^-11%

I haven't done any probability since university so I could be wrong.

Either way, it looks like these lottery results are orders of magnitude more unlikely than getting hit by lightning assuming the 1/4000 odds per game.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

For comparison according to the CDC, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are 1 in 500,000 or 5 out of 2,500,000.

My calculation is giving me similar numbers as you but off by a factor of 1000. I am getting (((1/4000) ^ 4) * 56) * 100

= 2.19 * 10^-11%

I haven't done any probability since university so I could be wrong.

Either way, it looks like these lottery results are orders of magnitude more unlikely than getting hit by lightning assuming the 1/4000 odds per game.

You're probably more accurate on your calculations than I, as I wasn't even good at stats back then, and factoring in my bad memory = not a good idea.

As to the odds per 50/50 draw, best educated guess. I honestly don't know the odds of each draw, so could be radically different than 1 in 4000.

 

[FonRiesen]

If there are shenanigans going on, who was the fool that published this all? I’m no fraudster, but that doesn’t seem like a very good idea.

I'm pretty sure that in order to run a lottery/raffle in Manitoba, you legally have to publish the winners.

Here we go: https://lgcamb.ca/download/1778

Under section 8 - you have to keep a list of winners according to the LGCA.

 

[Atoyot]

For comparison according to the CDC, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are 1 in 500,000 or 5 out of 2,500,000.

My calculation is giving me similar numbers as you but off by a factor of 1000. I am getting (((1/4000) ^ 4) * 56) * 100

= 2.19 * 10^-11%

I haven't done any probability since university so I could be wrong.

Either way, it looks like these lottery results are orders of magnitude more unlikely than getting hit by lightning assuming the 1/4000 odds per game.

Odds vary per pot and by how many tickets you buy. One that he won was $5,000, so if you bought 2 tickets you would have ~1/5000 chance to win that.

Here's another thought: seeing as he's been winning low pots, maybe he keeps an eye on the pots. The St Louis pot was less than $500. Say the time is closing to buy tickets and the pot's only $1,000, if he throws in $4,000 last minute then he has an 80% chance of winning that $1,000. Again, just thinking of scenarios.

EDIT: Before I get a bunch of responses please note that I'm already aware this is incorrect.

 

[FonRiesen]

Odds vary per pot and by how many tickets you buy. One that he won was $5,000, so if you bought 2 tickets you would have ~1/2500 chance to win that.

Here's another thought: seeing as he's been winning low pots, maybe he keeps an eye on the pots. The St Louis pot was less than $500. Say the time is closing to buy tickets and the pot's only $1,000, if he throws in $4,000 last minute then he has an 80% chance of winning that $1,000. Again, just thinking of scenarios.

But it's 50/50, so he'd be guaranteed to lose money in order to 'win'...

 

[JetsFan815]

Statistically speaking, this is a mathematical impossibility and there's obviously fraud taking place. The only thing that should be happening here is the RCMP should be involved immediately and a public statement that investigation underway

We are making lots of assumptions in calculating these odds which may not hold true in practice. And thus there might be a reasonable explanation that is not a crime being committed. But TNSE should give a statement clearing up any misunderstanding if there is a misunderstanding going on here.

 

[Jets 31]

I guess my question would be, if there is something sketchy going on, wouldn't the perpetrators ensure that the same name is never used more than once?

Like, I am not seasoned con artist or anything, but simple logic tells me never ever use the same name more than once.

Ya i was thinking that too but maybe they aren't that bright.

 

[Atoyot]

But it's 50/50, so he'd be losing money in order to 'win'...

Yep. My bad. Should have thought that through a bit more

More accurate would be adding $4,000 to a $1,000 pot would bring it up to $6,000 and he could only win $3,000. So that scenario definitely doesn't work but him buying larger amounts since he's already won is still plausible.

 

[Jets 31]

Some of these pots were really big, do they carry over if no one wins ?

 

[Cypruss]

Maybe they won some pots that only 250 fans were allowed in the building? Improves odds greatly

 

[Atoyot]

Maybe they won some pots that only 250 fans were allowed in the building? Improves odds greatly

I believe they've made it that you can buy them online even if you're not at the game. They even do it for away games.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Some of these pots were really big, do they carry over if no one wins ?

I assume you mean if no one makes a claim.

All unclaimed prizes revert to the TNYF: True North Youth Foundation - 50/50 Raffle

All Prizes not claimed on or before the Prize Claim Expiry Date (4:00 PM CT, ten business days from the Raffle date), will revert to the TNYF.

 

[snowkiddin]

I'm pretty sure that in order to run a lottery/raffle in Manitoba, you legally have to publish the winners.

Here we go: https://lgcamb.ca/download/1778

Under section 8 - you have to keep a list of winners according to the LGCA.

That makes sense, thanks for posting.

 

[Jets 31]

One guy won the early bird draw AND the main draw for the same game. I guess this could happen but it sure as shit never happens for me. I'm lucky to win 2 bucks on a scratch ticket.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

One guy won the early bird draw AND the main draw for the same game. I guess this could happen but it sure as shit never happens for me. I'm lucky to win 2 bucks on a scratch ticket.

Hey, I guess I'm luckier: I myself won Lotto Max twice - two prizes of $20 each time

 

[White Out 902]

Maybe they won some pots that only 250 fans were allowed in the building? Improves odds greatly

Let's test how shit my math is. Lets assume the odds for this guy winning every single 50 50 was just 1 in 250 each time. To win 4 times would still be 1 in almost 5 billion.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Let's test how shit my math is. Lets assume the odds for this guy winning every single 50 50 was just 1 in 250 each time. To win 4 times would still be 1 in almost 5 billion.

If he attended only 4 games, then that would be correct. It changes if he attended 56 games and won 4 times when all 56 games had only 250 people in attendance.

This is why statistics always gives me a headache

 

[Atoyot]

If he attended only 4 games, then that would be correct. It changes if he attended 56 games and won 4 times when all 56 games had only 250 people in attendance.

This is why statistics always gives me a headache

If he only attended 4 games and if everybody only bought a single ticket.