So Ernest won 7,065 , 5,000 , 11,625 and 11,855 . He did this all in less than 2 months time, this is sketch.
Multiple 50/50 winners
- Thread starter Zippity
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White Out 902
I'm usually right.
If he attended only 4 games, then that would be correct. It changes if he attended 56 games and won 4 times when all 56 games had only 250 people in attendance.
This is why statistics always gives me a headache
All I'm getting at is, at the very best, if you think that only 250 people were in on tickets (which is obviously not right) but I'll let that assumption slide cuz maybe this guy bought a shit tonne of tickets more than the average buyer.. his very best odds of winning 4 times in one season is in the billions. It only gets worse the more variables we add.
White Out 902
I'm usually right.
10 tickets is the minimum amount that you can buy at a time and anyone in Manitoba can buy 50/50 tickets. You do not have to be at the game.
Someone has to figure out those odds. That does seem very astronomical
This Ernest dude also won the Moose 50/50 and the Jets 50/50 the same night.
jetsmooseice
Up Yours Robison
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Me, to TNSE:
It seems implausible to me that Ernest is a criminal mastermind who could successfully hoodwink TNSE's 50/50 draw four times over, but he somehow wouldn't have the presence of mind to cover his tracks by having his brother in law and some buddies claim the other three prizes in exchange for a small fee. I mean, he certainly wasn't trying to hide from the public eye here, which you would expect a wrongdoer to do...
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Atoyot
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I wasn't aware there was a minimum and I was already aware that you don't have to be at the game, I was just responding to the hypothetical.
White Out 902
I'm usually right.
Who knows. I think it's a lot more likely to be an idiot criminal than a chance of something that's measured in the billions. I think it's a little naïve of you (no offense) to think all criminals are brilliant.
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jetsmooseice
Up Yours Robison
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I don't have a lot of experience with criminals so I guess I am a little naive
But seriously, what's being implied here isn't the same as shoplifting a chocolate bar from Petro-Canada. To rip off the TNYF 50/50 would take a fair bit of brainpower in terms of sheer technical know-how. So I would assume anyone pulling it off would be smarter than the average bear.
Ya i agree but if he is legit with his amazing luck i would be playing 6/49 and really win some money.
White Out 902
I'm usually right.
I don't have a lot of experience with criminals so I guess I am a little naive
But seriously, this isn't shoplifting a chocolate bar from Petro-Canada. To rip off the TNYF 50/50 would take a fair bit of brainpower in terms of sheer technical know-how. So I would assume anyone pulling it off would be smarter than the average bear.
Ya sorry my post comes off as dickish.
But in this case it's likely someone with access, if there was fraud (probably). I doubt there's anything super difficult or technical other than.. access.
jetsmooseice
Up Yours Robison
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Ya i agree but if he is legit with his amazing luck i would be playing 6/49 and really win some money.
Maybe he used up all his luck!
jetsmooseice
Up Yours Robison
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I suppose so. I would think that TNSE must have certainly noticed and, ahem, looked into matters the fourth time he showed up to claim his winnings.
I just wish I could win once, to recoup all the money I've spent on 50/50 over the years!!!!
Atoyot
Registered User
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K so here's my thinking:
Say Ernest wins the first one, after winning that first one he decides to throw in $1,000 into each subsequent draw just because. He won money, he's up, he wants to give more to charity, doesn't matter why. These are the subsequent 23 draws and his odds of winning them based on throwing in $1,000 to each, and the ones he won.
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]Suddenly it doesn't look so impossible. Maybe still implausible, but I don't have time to re-learn statistics enough right now to figure out the odds of winning those 3 within those 23.
EDIT: @GeorgeJETson are you able to figure out the odds of what I laid out there? I did a bit of an approximation and came up with ~11%. I can't remember how to do binomial distributions with varying odds. If that's even the way you would need to go here.
Say Ernest wins the first one, after winning that first one he decides to throw in $1,000 into each subsequent draw just because. He won money, he's up, he wants to give more to charity, doesn't matter why. These are the subsequent 23 draws and his odds of winning them based on throwing in $1,000 to each, and the ones he won.
| Winnings | Total bought | Odds | |
| $30,380.00 | $60,760.00 | 1.65% | |
| $37,570.00 | $75,140.00 | 1.33% | |
| $54,410.00 | $108,820.00 | 0.92% | |
| $32,960.00 | $65,920.00 | 1.52% | |
| $5,000.00 | $10,000.00 | 10.00% | |
| $10,775.00 | $21,550.00 | 4.64% | |
| $6,070.00 | $12,140.00 | 8.24% | |
| $1,980.00 | $3,960.00 | 25.25% | |
| $31,505.00 | $63,010.00 | 1.59% | |
| $75,125.00 | $150,250.00 | 0.67% | |
| $29,020.00 | $58,040.00 | 1.72% | |
| $11,625.00 | $23,250.00 | 4.30% | Won |
| $6,420.00 | $12,840.00 | 7.79% | |
| $6,710.00 | $13,420.00 | 7.45% | |
| $5,000.00 | $10,000.00 | 10.00% | Won |
| $16,190.00 | $32,380.00 | 3.09% | |
| $5,375.00 | $10,750.00 | 9.30% | |
| $5,885.00 | $11,770.00 | 8.50% | |
| $4,955.00 | $9,910.00 | 10.09% | |
| $5,080.00 | $10,160.00 | 9.84% | |
| $7,065.00 | $14,130.00 | 7.08% | Won |
| $38,220.00 | $76,440.00 | 1.31% | |
| $4,455.00 | $8,910.00 | 11.22% |
EDIT: @GeorgeJETson are you able to figure out the odds of what I laid out there? I did a bit of an approximation and came up with ~11%. I can't remember how to do binomial distributions with varying odds. If that's even the way you would need to go here.
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White Out 902
I'm usually right.
This is either a clerical error or (for legal purposes, probably) fraud. I can't see a middle ground. People aren't appreciating the odds here and that they're measured in the billions for this to happen. Not millions, Billions
Atoyot
Registered User
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Again, that depends on many different factors. You're making a lot of assumptions. If he's buying every draw odds go up. If he's buying more tickets odds go up. In the scenario I laid out it's very plausible.
I'm not saying it's not fishy and I'm not saying it's legit... all I'm saying is that it's clearly mathematically possible, however improbable. 1/250,000,000,000 is still possible.
Everyone saying this is "impossible" is clearly wrong
Everyone saying this is "impossible" is clearly wrong
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nobody imp0rtant
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I'm not saying it's not fishy and I'm not saying it's legit... all I'm saying is that it's clearly mathematically possible, however improbable. 1/250,000,000,000 is still possible.
Everyone saying this is "impossible" is clearly wrong
You're right. It's...
If Kyosama's chart is right, wouldn't he have a 3 in 10,000 chance of winning?
@nobody imp0rtant, I have a feeling you are smart in math.
Isn't it .1x.043x.0708?
I'm not sure about the chart because don't they give you deals the more tickets you buy?
That is also assuming he bought 1000 bucks worth of tickets as well.
@nobody imp0rtant, I have a feeling you are smart in math.
Isn't it .1x.043x.0708?
I'm not sure about the chart because don't they give you deals the more tickets you buy?
That is also assuming he bought 1000 bucks worth of tickets as well.
nobody imp0rtant
Registered pessimist
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