Multiple 50/50 winners

[Zippity]

True North Youth Foundation - 50/50 Raffle Winners

One person has won 4 times and a few others twice.

Click to read more...

 

[castle]

I'm not sure how the sales of tickets are distributed, but this does not seem possible. Either the reporting of winners is flawed, or... yeah, the authorities might want to get involved here.

 

[sipowicz]

Let me guess TNSE connected or Conneted to Birchwood?

buy a new truck and get the 50/50 prize!

 

[JetsFan815]

I have never paid attention to 50/50... not even sure how it works but this looks sketch as hell.

@ICdave please investigate this.

 

[Zippity]

Right now better chances winning 50/50 than jets making the playoffs

 

[Jets 31]

And once again someone or some people figure out a way to scam people , sad.

 

[AlphaLackey]

This, in and of itself, should not defy credulity at all, given the ability to buy as many tickets as you want. I don't know if you could imagine how many tickets some people would buy.

Having said that, it could ALSO be a security issue, and it costs nothing to credibly investigate. Well, other than what you pay your friendly neighborhood mathematician. So almost nothing

 

[Jetter76]

This is actually impossible. Not improbable but freakin impossible to happen. Let’s just say the odds are 1000-1
Winning 4 times??? Just keep multiplying by 1000 and see how insane this is. Also I’m sure the odds are much worse I’m just using 1000 to simplify and show the insanity.

 

[Jets 31]

Let me guess TNSE connected or Conneted to Birchwood?

buy a new truck and get the 50/50 prize!

That one dude buys alot of trucks .

 

[surixon]

Yeah the probability of someone winning multiple times let alone many people winning multiple times is so incredibly low.

I'd be looking at doing an audit on this as there are some potential red flags here.

 

[Romang67]

Could it be groups of people buying a bunch of tickets but just putting one name on the official purchase?

 

[jetsmooseice]

Maybe some people are just big spenders? I remember working at a place where one of the owners won a 50-50 charity fundraiser. But he generously bought a shit-ton of tickets to prime the pot. I remember how sheepish he looked when he accepted the prize of $1,000 or whatever which was trivial to him but obviously a big deal to the rest of the staff

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I think Paul Friesen should be tipped off about this so he can do some serious muckraking. Hey, True North...

 

[SLAYER]

This is actually impossible. Not improbable but freakin impossible to happen. Let’s just say the odds are 1000-1
Winning 4 times??? Just keep multiplying by 1000 and see how insane this is. Also I’m sure the odds are much worse I’m just using 1000 to simplify and show the insanity.

 

[cbcwpg]

Extreme Enginerding: The Economics of 50/50 Draws (mikerobe007.ca)

50/50 draws are maybe justified in the sense that the money primarily goes to charities, but as an investment (or even just a source of gambling for fun) they're really probably one of the worst things you can do.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Could it be groups of people buying a bunch of tickets but just putting one name on the official purchase?

No different than 1 person buying the same number of tickets.

Seems improbable, especially the guy who won 4 times. How many of them were the small pots, meaning not many ticket buyers? I didn't look at that in detail. If he bought a lot of tickets on those pots, it isn't so improbable anymore. He could have lost money with the win.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

This is actually impossible. Not improbable but freakin impossible to happen. Let’s just say the odds are 1000-1
Winning 4 times??? Just keep multiplying by 1000 and see how insane this is. Also I’m sure the odds are much worse I’m just using 1000 to simplify and show the insanity.

Assuming odds of 1000:1, it means 999 times you wouldn't win.

So, the odds of winning, using that probability = 1 - (0.999 × 0.999 × 0.999 × 0.999) = approx. 0.4% chance.

But someone please correct my math, as statistics are not my strong suit

 

[kylbaz]

The guy won 3 of 12 in January. I don't think that is statistically possible. Well close to impossible

 

[SLAYER]

The guy won 3 of 12 in January. I don't think that is statistically possible.

It obviously is?

Do words not have meaning anymore?

Edit: Unless you're just f'n with us and I can't tell anymore

 

[Cypruss]

Assuming odds of 1000:1, it means 999 times you wouldn't win.

So, the odds of winning, using that probability = 1 - (0.999 × 0.999 × 0.999 × 0.999) = approx. 0.4% chance.

But someone please correct my math, as statistics are not my strong suit

Likely my math is wrong, but 1/1000 chance is equal to .1 chance right? Then .1 x .1 x .1 x .1 = 0.0001. So that would be written as 1 in 100,000 chance?

 

[Jetter76]

Likely my math is wrong, but 1/1000 chance is equal to .1 chance right? Then .1 x .1 x .1 x .1 = 0.0001. So that would be written as 1 in 100,000 chance?

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

I guess my question would be, if there is something sketchy going on, wouldn't the perpetrators ensure that the same name is never used more than once?

Like, I am not seasoned con artist or anything, but simple logic tells me never ever use the same name more than once.

 

[DRW204]

delete

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Likely my math is wrong, but 1/1000 chance is equal to .1 chance right? Then .1 x .1 x .1 x .1 = 0.0001. So that would be written as 1 in 100,000 chance?

I think I was using the formula for calculating the odds of winning one (or more) out of the four draws rather than winning all four. It's been way too long since I did any fancy statistical calculations.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Okay, so thinking upon it, I'm going to try to assign some probabilities and see what the odds may be.

Clicking on the link, I count 56 games listed. One person has won the 50/50 draw 4 times (presumably, as I didn't count that)

Just based upon the amounts won on Jets games I've been to, I'm guessing the odds of winning one 50/50 draw to be about 1 in 4,000.

So what are the odds one person has won 4 times out of 56 draws?

Here is where I probably make an ass of myself

The odds to not win a 50/50 draw: 3999 ÷ 4000 = 0.99975

The odds to win 4 out of 56 draws = 1 - (0.99975^(56-4)) = ~0.0129175, or about 1.3%.

So a bit unlikely, but not improbable.

*waits for stats gurus to point out his mistakes*

EDIT: DAMMIT, see my next post