Post-Game Talk: MTL win 5-4 against Penguins

[Runner77]

Mercy buckets, we’ll take it. But there’s still a shit ton of games to go. We’ll enjoy what we have right now.

 

[JianYang]

When you say Montembeault will average out at some point - that doesn't make sense. Average out to what? It's not a dice game or the slots.

I don't have a crystal ball to tell you where is numbers will end up.

What I'm saying is that he has a 2.38 GAA and a 930 save percentage right now.

Feel free to disagree with me that those numbers are not sustainable, but thats where I stand.

 

[salbutera]

I agree with you. In fact, I made a similar post in the Roster & Standings thread. That this is a lot of fun because we're seeing the young guys lead the charge. But that as fun as this is, come the dog days of the season in December, January & February, the team could come back down to reality.

I used the Sabres as an example. The last few seasons, they got off to a hot start and were in a playoff position (even leading the standings), and we were all wondering if they had finally taken that next step with their young guys. However, around December/January, they would start to lose consistently and fall back down to the bottom of the standings.

So we've seen the example of a young, up and coming team get off to a good start and then things get more complicated. So this could be what will happen to the Habs. And that's fine.

Sabres were never in playoff position at US Thanksgiving or thereafter - the historical trend is quite astonishing.

80% of teams simply don’t move more than a couple of spots in the standings post Thanksgiving.

 

[salbutera]

I don't have a crystal ball to tell you where is numbers will end up.

What I'm saying is that he has a 2.38 GAA and a 930 save percentage right now.

Feel free to disagree with me that those numbers are not sustainable, but thats where I stand.

I agree Dikembe will flatline in .915 range, but Allen will surely rise from his current .905 to career average of .912 as well

 

[CHfan1]

Sabres were never in playoff position at US Thanksgiving or thereafter - the historical trend is quite astonishing. 80% of teams simply don’t move more than a couple of spots in the standings post Thanksgiving.

In the 2018-19 season the Sabres were 4th overall in the league at the US Thanksgiving mark with a 14-6-2 record. They ended up finishing 5th last. Also, the eventual Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues were 2nd last in the NHL that season at the US Thanksgiving mark.

As for the 80%, if anyone is wondering, see below article that references it:

 

[admiralcadillac]

I don't have a crystal ball to tell you where is numbers will end up.

What I'm saying is that he has a 2.38 GAA and a 930 save percentage right now.

Feel free to disagree with me that those numbers are not sustainable, but thats where I stand.

The concept of averaging out doesn’t leave any room for personal improvement.

In fact, your post assumes that improvement for any of these young players is limited.

 

[JianYang]

The concept of averaging out doesn’t leave any room for personal improvement.

In fact, your post assumes that improvement for any of these young players is limited.

I didnt say he can't improve. His save percentage right now is in Jose Theodore territory when he won the hart.

 

[LaP]

In the 2018-19 season the Sabres were 4th overall in the league at the US Thanksgiving mark with a 14-6-2 record. They ended up finishing 5th last. Also, the eventual Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues were 2nd last in the NHL that season at the US Thanksgiving mark.

As for the 80%, if anyone is wondering, see below article that references it:

80% is not as much as it might seem to be. Out of that 80% you probably have a good 25-30% of teams who are so good on paper that they were not going to miss anyway even before the season even starts. So basically as a bubble team you're chances to miss are still rather high.

Personally from my own experience watching the NHL end of December - early January is usually the period of the year where if you're in by 4+ or out by 4+ points you'll likely make or miss it.

 

[ottawa]

Saw my first habs win in like maybe 7 years? I think I saw them lose at least 5-6 times over that span.

We have a legitimate 1st line that's skilled and exciting. The crowd was electric anytime these 3 kids were on the ice, I haven't seen an arena sit at the edge of their seats like that since we had Kovalev. Looking forward to seeing these 3 grow.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

In the 2018-19 season the Sabres were 4th overall in the league at the US Thanksgiving mark with a 14-6-2 record. They ended up finishing 5th last. Also, the eventual Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues were 2nd last in the NHL that season at the US Thanksgiving mark.

As for the 80%, if anyone is wondering, see below article that references it:

Thank you for correcting Salbutera's incessant catapulting of BS. Sabres were +5 and tanked aftetwards. We're merely +2 at the 15 game mark.

He's using the thanksgiving marker to pretend to himself the Habs have a high chance of making the playoffs.

It's funny how he doesn't realize that 1-the "80%" is sample based 2-there's been higher flutuation in recent years 3-habs are at the low end of the spectrum which means they are the most probable to miss them.

Thanksgiving marker means nothing for teams vying for the WC spots, except that they are not behind the 8-ball yet.

 

[beowulf]

At what point do we start cheering for the playoffs? I mean still a lot of hockey to play but this is waaaayy better than the start I was expecting and suddenly getting some secondary scoring just makes them that much better.

Three way tie with both Florida teams and Detroit at 17 points in 15 games and only 2 behind second place Toronto with a game in hand.

Who would of thunk it.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

At what point do we start cheering for the playoffs? I mean still a lot of hockey to play but this is waaaayy better than the start I was expecting and suddenly getting some secondary scoring just makes them that much better.

Three way tie with both Florida teams and Detroit at 17 points in 15 games and only 2 behind second place Toronto with a game in hand.

Who would of thunk it.

I'd wait the end of the year at least. We're barely over ,500. A 3 game losing streak and we're under ,500. It's way too early.

MSL is even better than I thought though.

 

[beowulf]

I'd wait the end of the year at least. We're barely over ,500. A 3 game losing streak and we're under ,500. It's way too early.

MSL is even better than I thought though.

ohh I get that but the fact that we are basically tied for 3rd with the same record as 3 teams, 2 of which were supposed to be way ahead of us, almost a quarter into the season is impressive and surprising. Makes me more conflicted for wanting a top 3 pick and makes it harder not to cheer for wins!

 

[WeThreeKings]

At what point do we start cheering for the playoffs? I mean still a lot of hockey to play but this is waaaayy better than the start I was expecting and suddenly getting some secondary scoring just makes them that much better.

Three way tie with both Florida teams and Detroit at 17 points in 15 games and only 2 behind second place Toronto with a game in hand.

Who would of thunk it.

Whenever you want.. it's totally up to the individual.

I think it's pretty clear this is a hot start and this team will fall back once December hits and our butter soft schedule is over.

I'm going to continue to cheer for the tank because that is still the path to success for us. A first round exit during the 2023 draft would be a pretty bad thing.

 

[beowulf]

Whenever you want.. it's totally up to the individual.

I think it's pretty clear this is a hot start and this team will fall back once December hits and our butter soft schedule is over.

I'm going to continue to cheer for the tank because that is still the path to success for us. A first round exit during the 2023 draft would be a pretty bad thing.

Especially since looks like Florida will not fall back a lot and will end up at best middle of the pack but in the playoffs so that pick won't be very high.

 

[cphabs]

Surprisingly the Habs won 5 straight last February shortly after MSL took over.

Like a lunar eclipse

 

[cphabs]

They watch too much Joel Bouchard on TVA. The spin continues. What I don't get is how easily 3 historical franchise lows get ignored as if it had no bearing whatsoever on his legacy.

I know it’s early in the season, but have you gals and guys noticed what Sergachev is quietly doing in Tampa?

 

[The Real Timo]

Like a lunar eclipse

Followed soon after by a 10 game losing streak, if memory serves me right... no?

 

[cphabs]

Followed soon after by a 10 game losing streak, if memory serves me right... no?

Even if so? It’s going to be fun watching the kids develop!

 

[LaP]

Thank you for correcting Salbutera's incessant catapulting of BS. Sabres were +5 and tanked aftetwards. We're merely +2 at the 15 game mark.

He's using the thanksgiving marker to pretend to himself the Habs have a high chance of making the playoffs.

It's funny how he doesn't realize that 1-the "80%" is sample based 2-there's been higher flutuation in recent years 3-habs are at the low end of the spectrum which means they are the most probable to miss them.

Thanksgiving marker means nothing for teams vying for the WC spots, except that they are not behind the 8-ball yet.

The thanksgiving marker is BS. For one 80% is not a high chances to make it. 1 time out of 5 you'll miss., But that stat includes the team who were going to make it anyway. Teams like Carolina where nobody had any doubt they would make it even before day 1 of the pre-season. So basically among the teams who are bubbling and questionable your chance to miss are probably more in the neighborhood of 40 to 50% so the flip of a coin.

Another good example of why you should not care about thanksgiving (and there's many of them) is 2015-2016. By thanksgiving Montreal was 1st in the league with 36 points. They were 11 points over the 16th position. There was no reality where they gonna miss. It was impossible. They finished 22th and 11 points away from the 16th position.

I have enough experience watching the NHL to know better than thinking because we are 2-4 points in by thanksgiving that we will likely make it specially with such a young defense and questionable goalies. From my experience end of January is a far better barometer. At the end of January 2016 Montreal was 20th which was only 2 positions away from their final standings and very far from their 1st position by thanksgiving. There's way too much hockey to play yet and our November schedule is way too easy to assume anything at the end of it.

 

[LaP]

At what point do we start cheering for the playoffs? I mean still a lot of hockey to play but this is waaaayy better than the start I was expecting and suddenly getting some secondary scoring just makes them that much better.

Three way tie with both Florida teams and Detroit at 17 points in 15 games and only 2 behind second place Toronto with a game in hand.

Who would of thunk it.

Now? Why would you not cheer for your team? Specially when kids are responsible for the wins and not some Tartarian vets producing at a suspect pace. As long as you keep your expectation in line and don't act like it is a disappointment if the team falter in December and January because of a lack of experience and depth then what would be the problem with cheering for the kids now?

 

[Mudz]

Followed soon after by a 10 game losing streak, if memory serves me right... no?

You're a "the glass got stolen and the thief killed your dog" type of person right?

 

[LaP]

You're a "the glass got stolen and the thief killed your dog" type of person right?

As opposed to the glass is full even though it's only half filled and i clapped for 15 minutes when they saved the dog in Independence Day even though the movie sucked major ***?

 

[The Real Timo]

You're a "the glass got stolen and the thief killed your dog" type of person right?

I was just trying to point out there there is still hope

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Mercy buckets, we’ll take it. But there’s still a shit ton of games to go. We’ll enjoy what we have right now.

Yeah how cursed we've been for getting real talented forwards gives me a bit of pause too. I'm sold on Suzuki though. Dach I'll wait a bit but he can also still be better. Kid has massive potential and is still a cub.

We could just finally have a world class first line. I've been watching since 88-89 and have yet to see one which is INSANE. Hell even a proper star forward. Very sad. Could be worth the wait as we just seem to have a LOT of nice things finally. It's been too long. We're due.