Player Discussion: Morrissey's quiet redemption

[DRW204]

Anyhow last 6 games he has positive underlying metrics across the board:

53 CF% 51.65 XGF%. Seems like his game has already rebounded significantly and he's playing real strong hockey without DeMelo. Obviously he needs to keep this level of performance up.

Cool. I think I mentioned he's been playing better as of late...

also; id expect the ottawa game from last night boosted his numbers significantly as the Jets pretty much carried 70% of the shot and chance share..... what are his 6 games prior to last night?

 

[Channelcat]

Last 2 or 3 weeks he's looked great. Its so nice to see him playing with confidence again.

 

[surixon]

Cool. I think I mentioned he's been playing better as of late...

also; id expect the ottawa game from last night boosted his numbers significantly as the Jets pretty much carried 70% of the shot and chance share..... what are his 6 games prior to last night?

If you take out Ottawa it's 50 cf% and 48 XGF% that is still second best among dmen over that time frame.

To put it in perspective:

Poolman had a 41 xgf
Stanley a 39 xgf
Forbert a 38 xgf
Pionk a 37 xgf

If anything the Ottawa game salvaged the numbers of those dmen more then prop Morrissey up.

 

[Flair Hay]

Last 2 or 3 weeks he's looked great. Its so nice to see him playing with confidence again.

I thought he has looked a lot better, a lot fresher the last couple weeks.

He seemed to really step up in some of the Toronto games where we needed everyone to pitch in a lot more than normal.

Expansion draft stuff makes it tough to know if we will pony up to get him a top pair partner. But I suspect we will start seeing the best of him again if we do.

 

[Ducky10]

He’s been stronger than Pionk the last 5-6 games imo. Pionk has had his fair share of gaffes the last few games, which all players go through. Mistakes or lack thereof aren’t the reason I think Morrissey has played better lately anyway.

 

[DRW204]

If you take out Ottawa it's 50 cf% and 48 XGF% that is still second best among dmen over that time frame.

To put it in perspective:

Poolman had a 41 xgf
Stanley a 39 xgf
Forbert a 38 xgf
Pionk a 37 xgf

If anything the Ottawa game salvaged the numbers of those dmen more then prop Morrissey up.

not sure where you get your numbers from. but last 6 games prior to ottawa are below.

1 game results of 70% CF%/xGF% over a small sample can boost your numbers significantly.

i think he's been playing better of late individually though, but still not near his 2017-2018 level, or given his current cap hit.

 

[surixon]

not sure where you get your numbers from. but last 6 games prior to ottawa are below.

1 game results of 70% CF%/xGF% over a small sample can boost your numbers significantly.

View attachment 418465

i think he's been playing better of late individually though, but still not near his 2017-2018 level, or given his current cap hit.

I used the 5 prior to the Ottawa game as that was when he started playing better.

Anyhow we will just have to disagree on your last paragraph. I think he's been close to that level the last bit.

 

[DRW204]

I used the 5 prior to the Ottawa game as that was when he started playing better.

Anyhow we will just have to disagree on your last paragraph. I think he's been close to that level the last bit.

lol you cherry-pick so hard.

 

[surixon]

lol you cherry-pick so hard.

Call it what you will I'm not disagreeing that he's had some poor stretches. I'm just pointing out he's started playing better and that seemed to start with the Calgary series.
Also do you not think your doing the same thing with your sample including a game where the Jets posted a team 31 XGF% against Vancouver? I would imagine it has the exact opposite impact on our players numbers as the 70XGF game against the Sens. I'm more concerned with if he's able to maintain his recent stretch then I am to add games to the sample to drag his numbers down. If he keeps playing well his overall numbers will increase.

 

[DRW204]

Call it what you will I'm not disagreeing that he's had some poor stretches. I'm just pointing out he's started playing better and that seemed to start with the Calgary series.
Also do you not think your doing the same thing with your sample including a game where the Jets posted a team 31 XGF% against Vancouver? I would imagine it has the exact opposite impact on our players numbers as the 70XGF game against the Sens. I'm more concerned with if he's able to maintain his recent stretch then I am to add games to the sample to drag his numbers down. If he keeps playing well his overall numbers will increase.

you're the one that decided the arbitrary range of 6 games, and then change it to 5 when it doesn't fit your narrative.

 

[Whileee]

I'm really skeptical of using single game or small samples for shot metrics, especially expected goals. A single play or shift can greatly skew the xG figure for a game. I'm a bit more comfortable with Corsi metrics in smaller samples, because they are based on larger event samples, but they can also be very skewed within a game if a player is stuck defending for a long shift where another player has muffed a couple of zone clears.

Overall, Morrissey's play has looked a lot sharper to me recently. He's much more decisive in cutting down time and space and more inclined to move up the ice with and without the puck.

 

[surixon]

you're the one that decided the arbitrary range of 6 games, and then change it to 5 when it doesn't fit your narrative.

No my arbitrary range was his last 6 games. You elected to create another arbitrary range by removing the Ottawa game because it made everyone on the team look good and chose another arbitrary range that included a game that made everyone look bad.

But yes I'm choosing a range that makes him look good, I believe that was the whole point to show that his play has been much better the last two weeks. But hey let's do the last 8 games including that awful team performance at Vancouver, he's still second among dmen in XGF over that stretch on this team.

Maybe instead of spending our time on him when he's clearly turned a corner and has raised his game significantly the last three weeks we should be focusing on our top pairing that are going the opposite direction and have a less then 40 XGF% over that time.

 

[DRW204]

Maybe instead of spending our time on him when he's clearly turned a corner and has raised his game significantly the last three weeks we should be focusing on our top pairing that are going the opposite direction and have a less then 40 XGF% over that time.

then make a thread on it? last time i checked this is a morrissey thread. and i've said about 3x in this thread he has been playing better inidvidually imo, despite his stats still sub-par.

I'm really skeptical of using single game or small samples for shot metrics, especially expected goals. A single play or shift can greatly skew the xG figure for a game. I'm a bit more comfortable with Corsi metrics in smaller samples, because they are based on larger event samples, but they can also be very skewed within a game if a player is stuck defending for a long shift where another player has muffed a couple of zone clears.

Overall, Morrissey's play has looked a lot sharper to me recently. He's much more decisive in cutting down time and space and more inclined to move up the ice with and without the puck.

people making jumping conclusions after a game against ottawa, where 70% of the shot/chance share was controlled by the Jets. yes, every1's stats will be inflated, and in a sample of a handful games that'll skew on-ice measures heavily.

 

[Whileee]

Over the past 10 games, Morrissey is around 50% in adjusted 5v5 CF%. He's a bit below that on xGF% but I'm a bit skeptical of that metric over relatively short time frames, anyway.

At least Morrissey and Poolman haven't really been buried in shot pressure, and with the Jets' usual tendency to outperform their shot metrics in terms of goal differentials, getting close to 50% at 5v5 is a step forward. In Morrissey's case, I think he's been carrying Poolman somewhat over the past 10 games.

Maybe I'm a bit biased and using an "eye of faith" in watching Morrissey, but his play really does seem more assertive and effective to me over the recent stretch.

 

[surixon]

Over the past 10 games, Morrissey is around 50% in adjusted 5v5 CF%. He's a bit below that on xGF% but I'm a bit skeptical of that metric over relatively short time frames, anyway.

At least Morrissey and Poolman haven't really been buried in shot pressure, and with the Jets' usual tendency to outperform their shot metrics in terms of goal differentials, getting close to 50% at 5v5 is a step forward. In Morrissey's case, I think he's been carrying Poolman somewhat over the past 10 games.

Maybe I'm a bit biased and using an "eye of faith" in watching Morrissey, but his play really does seem more assertive and effective to me over the recent stretch.

I am clearly a bit biased on the player but to me he has been way more aggressive both ways and he is now actively battling physically whereas last year and at the beginning of this year he was shying away from contact. Got to wonder if more was going on with his shoulder then we thought and it only recently got to the point where he is confident it will hold up.

Anyhow hopefully he can keep this level up through the end of the year and through the playoffs.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

There are very few D men out there who can carry the play over the course of a season. They need a good partner and good support from the forwards

Morrissey/Trouba was a good partnership and both struggled to carry lesser partners. Both require a partner that is equal or superior to them. That isn't new and I imagine that at some point Morrissey is playing with partner with a skill level that will match him or surpass him in the future

 

[Gm0ney]

Morrissey's had the deck stacked against him this year. Beaulieu-Morrissey was a disaster - Josh already struggling, then you saddle him with a Stu-quality partner and put him on his off side? WTF were Maurice/Huddy trying to do here? Is this some 5-D chess move to tank Morrissey's value so much the team could leave him unprotected in the expansion draft?

Morrissey-Poolman is nearly as bad - but at least JMo is back playing on the left side. And while Poolman's not great, he's not in the Chaotic Evil section of the chart like Beaulieu.

 

[surixon]

There are very few D men out there who can carry the play over the course of a season. They need a good partner and good support from the forwards

Morrissey/Trouba was a good partnership and both struggled to carry lesser partners. Both require a partner that is equal or superior to them. That isn't new and I imagine that at some point Morrissey is playing with partner with a skill level that will match him or surpass him in the future

I have said before but how would Scheifele look if he had to lug around a Chris Thorburn or two on his wing. That is essentially what we have largely been asking Morrissey to do the last two years while playing pretty big minutes.

He has looked fine to good with competent partners the few times he's gotten them.

 

[surixon]

Morrissey's had the deck stacked against him this year. Beaulieu-Morrissey was a disaster - Josh already struggling, then you saddle him with a Stu-quality partner and put him on his off side? WTF were Maurice/Huddy trying to do here? Is this some 5-D chess move to tank Morrissey's value so much the team could leave him unprotected in the expansion draft?

Morrissey-Poolman is nearly as bad - but at least JMo is back playing on the left side. And while Poolman's not great, he's not in the Chaotic Evil section of the chart like Beaulieu.

I have no idea what Huddy and Maurice where thinking moving Beau up with him and putting him in a position he's not comfortable with. Talk about setting him up to fail and no surprise that it did.

 

[DRW204]

Morrissey's had the deck stacked against him this year. Beaulieu-Morrissey was a disaster - Josh already struggling, then you saddle him with a Stu-quality partner and put him on his off side? WTF were Maurice/Huddy trying to do here? Is this some 5-D chess move to tank Morrissey's value so much the team could leave him unprotected in the expansion draft?

Morrissey-Poolman is nearly as bad - but at least JMo is back playing on the left side. And while Poolman's not great, he's not in the Chaotic Evil section of the chart like Beaulieu.

well prior to the last year he's almost been exclusively been paired with trouba or buff. we all know what buff represented, and trouba was among the top young RDs in the NHL during 2016-2019 as a Jet. morrissey has never really had to carry a pairing like trouba had to with stuart, and clearly morrissey cannot.

 

[surixon]

well prior to the last year he's almost been exclusively been paired with trouba or buff. we all know what buff represented, and trouba was among the top young RDs in the NHL during 2016-2019 as a Jet. morrissey has never really had to carry a pairing like trouba had to with stuart, and clearly morrissey cannot.

Well he carried Myers one year when we had injuries, think it was 17-18. He clearly can't carry replacement level talent like Beau/Poolman unless this recent stretch is a sign of things to come.

 

[DRW204]

Well he carried Myers one year when we had injuries, think it was 17-18. He clearly can't carry replacement level talent like Beau/Poolman unless this recent stretch is a sign of things to come.

really wasn't a significant difference in myers' on-ice stats w/ or w/o morrissey that year. CF% and GF% were basically the same, xGF% he faired a bit better but would have to dive into the difference in linemates too.

 

[surixon]

really wasn't a significant difference in myers' on-ice stats w/ or w/o morrissey that year. CF% and GF% were basically the same, xGF% he faired a bit better but would have to dive into the difference in linemates too.

They had a 53 XGF% together and Myers was 47 XGF% without. That is a pretty significant difference don't you think? Myers FF and SF % where both under 50 without Morrissey and where 51 and 53 % respectively with Morrissey.

 

[DRW204]

They had a 53 XGF% together and Myers was 47 XGF% without. That is a pretty significant difference don't you think? Myers FF and SF % where both under 50 without Morrissey and where 51 and 53 % respectively with Morrissey.

this is from NSS

CF% is 52.44 vs 50.14 (net difference of 5 shot attempts over 60 mins, is that considered significant?)
GF% is 50% vs 50.7% (0.7% net difference in Goal share, hardly anything)

agreed with xGF

also have to consider who myers was playing with in his time away from Morrissey, pretty sure it was kulikov? makes sense why the offense drives up a bit.

idk if id constitute that as carrying. Trouba with stuart imo is carrying. or chiarot with buff.

 

[surixon]

this is from NSS

CF% is 52.44 vs 50.14 (net difference of 5 shot attempts over 60 mins, is that considered significant?)
GF% is 50% vs 50.7% (0.7% net difference in Goal share, hardly anything)

agreed with xGF

also have to consider who myers was playing with in his time away from Morrissey, pretty sure it was kulikov? makes sense why the offense drives up a bit.

idk if id constitute that as carrying.

View attachment 418494

Sure but that third pairing was being pretty sheltered so Myers moving up to play tougher competition should to some extent offset that.