Montreal Offseason UFA signings /trade predictions

[The Gr8 Dane]

Can we not sign Stamkos? Thanks

 

[salbutera]

That's the point...the cap gymnastics they have to do every offseason and beginning of this season makes this idea that they have a lot of cap flexibility a mirage.

They do, but they don't.

At the conclusion of next season, they'll start to really have more flexibility and at the conclusion of that following season (2025-26), that's when things truly open up because they no longer have to do cap gymnastics with Carey Price's 10.5M cap hit

Price’s contract will be dealt somewhere post July 1st, 2025 bonus payout and prior to officially setting the opening day roster for 25-26 season - and open up the $10.5M cap without need for cap gymnastics

Would be shocking if it didn’t happen

 

[417]

Price’s contract will be dealt somewhere post July 1st, 2025 bonus payout and prior to start of 25-26 season. Would be shocking if it didn’t happen

Maybe...you're probably right, but now that the NHL's contract graveyard is officially closed for business.

That possibility is less likely

 

[salbutera]

Maybe...you're probably right, but now that the NHL's contract graveyard is officially closed for business.

That possibility is less likely

I don’t think so, I’m sure a bottom dweller will be more than happy to take on $10.5M cap w $2M in actual salary in exchange for a pick / prospect

 

[Captain Mountain]

Including Petry + Allen retainmanent have $7M free. Cap gymnastics allowing Price on LTIR at roster set gets $17M

Understand that LTIR room isn't cap space. Montreal already has a one million cap penalty going into next season because they can't absorb bonus overages. And with all the ELCs on the roster, Montreal has the potential for a lot more bonus overages.

Montreal has flexibility, but that's not the same as no problems. And its important to balance the flexibility without shooting themselves in the foot.

 

[Benstheman]

I would give prime Stamkos 12m any day of the week

Not me. i mean he was pretty good but he was not McKinnon/McDavid good.

 

[salbutera]

Not me. i mean he was pretty good but he was not McKinnon/McDavid good.

People are getting too caught up w $12M number, that number might be anywhere from $9M -$12M based on what market will bear + 20% topper Mtl will undoubtedly need to offer for luring & taking into account low term (2-year deal)

For reference, Matthews new deal is $13.25M w less than $800K in base salary and remainder paid out in bonu$

McDavid will get over $15M AAV on his next deal, get used to the fact inflation is on its way with cap topping $100M within 2-3 seasons

The payout for an 80pts player will be $10M+ going fwd, which is why teams have been scrambling trying to ink their young players to 8-year deals trying to get it done before serious inflation kicks in

 

[Benstheman]

People are getting too caught up w $12M number, that number might be anywhere from $9M -$12M based on what market will bear + 20% topper Mtl will undoubtedly need to offer for luring & taking into account low term (2-year deal)

For reference, Matthews new deal is $13.25M w less than $800K in base salary and remainder paid out in bonu$

McDavid will get over $15M AAV on his next deal, get used to the fact inflation is on its way with cap topping $100M within 2-3 seasons

The payout for an 80pts player will be $10M+ going fwd, which is why teams have been scrambling trying to ink their young players to 8-year deals trying to get it done before serious inflation kicks in

I'd be really glad we can add him for 2-3 years and pay for what he is worth. I don't think it would bother at all if he signs for more than Suzuki or Caufield. They would just be ecstatics to get help on the top 6 and a good leader.

But at this point in his career, he will just choose the destination and get paid for what he is worth. He won't sign here just for the extra money. i don't see it.

 

[Sorinth]

I do love Stamkos... But giving him 12m for a 34 years old player is beyond absurd....We will need to sign Slaf and Ghule very soon. Good luck convincing Slaf to take less than Cole or Suzuki by giving a 12m to Stamkos. We saw what happen to Toronto with Tavares.

I also don't see why would Stamkos sign with us? MSL? It will be his last chance to win the Stanley cup. He is going to a playoff team. I also don't see him producing 80+ with out a good team or good player like Kucherov.

Nothing's stopping us from signing Slafkovsky right now before signing Stamkos. Not too mention all you have to do is tell Slaf when he's won the Richard twice, the Messier once, and of course the cup three times then he too can get double digits in salary. Honestly it could easily help get a discount because you're tangibly showing the players that you will use whatever discount they can give you to get a winner. We can sign all our soon to be RFAs to long term deals and still have the cap space for spending 12m on a star. Whether it's a good idea to put all that cap space into Stamkos or instead getting two players at 6m is of course not as clear cut.

And your out to lunch if you seriously think that if Toronto hadn't signed Tavares that Matthews would have taken a discount. Like come on, he was always going to try to maximize his money.

 

[therocket9]

I don't see them going the offersheet route.

It's not their style nor would it be prudent. Imagine we give away a top 10 pick next year.

You don't offer sheet in the top brackets you offer sheet Dorofeyev or Kakko at 4 million per compensation 2025 second round pick but you need good pro scouting otherwise you wind up with KK at 4.8 million who is a bust.

 

[HuGort]

Already posted, Habs have zero cap hurdles for next 4-years.

With Edmundson + Pearson off the books have $17M free for next season .

Savard + Armia + Dvorak + Evans off the books after 24-25 = $13M for Slaf + Guhle.
Also get $4.3M add with Petry + Allen retainment coming off

After 25-26, Matheson’s $4.875M comes off the books

After 26-27 Gallagher + Anderson = $11M off the books

All this doesn’t even take into account cap rising to $100M within 2-seasons, expedited by ramp up in revenues for VGK, Fla, Canes, Sea, and Utah coming in

As for why Stamkos would come? That’s the big question, HuGo haven’t been shy in proclaiming they are trying to change how top end players get over their hesitation of playing in Mtl, they took last years Redenbacher fiasco particularly hard “this type of thing doesn’t help what we’re trying to do here to get top end players interested in playing here” as they stated to Arpon Basu

MSL is their drawing card combine w offensive style being implemented by the Gen Z hockey whisperer.

In Stamkos case it hedges on TBay lowballing him + relationship factor w MSL & Vinny IMO

Don't we have to be cap compliance by start of first game. Then put Price on LTIR. We did this season

 

[salbutera]

I'd be really glad we can add him for 2-3 years and pay for what he is worth. I don't think it would bother at all if he signs for more than Suzuki or Caufield. They would just be ecstatics to get help on the top 6 and a good leader.

But at this point in his career, he will just choose the destination and get paid for what he is worth. He won't sign here just for the extra money. i don't see it.

IMO two important factors will need to align - Stamkos’ ego will need to be bruised by TBay (with a low ball offer) AND $ from Habs has to be one he can’t refuse, only then will there even be a slight probability of inking him leveraging MSL & Vinny

 

[salbutera]

Don't we have to be cap compliance by start of first game. Then put Price on LTIR. We did this season

Yes, Habs will sit at $7M, and it very well might involve moving Dvorak’s contract before mid-Aug opening roster freeze

 

[Benstheman]

IMO two important factors will need to align - Stamkos’ ego will need to be bruised by TBay (as MSLs was) AND $ from Habs has to be one he can’t refuse, only then will there even be a slight probability of inking him leveraging MSL & Vinny

If he thinks Habs are a playoffs team with him on the roster, as soon as next season and he sees an opportunity to win a cup before he retires, maybe. But again, i would reealy be surprised.

And at first, i thought he was 36 yo, so a 2 years contract would make sense even for him. But at 34, i'm pretty sure he will lokk for a 3-4 years.

 

[Tyson]

If he thinks Habs are a playoffs team with him on the roster, as soon as next season and he sees an opportunity to win a cup before he retires, maybe. But again, i would reealy be surprised.

And at first, i thought he was 36 yo, so a 2 years contract would make sense even for him. But at 34, i'm pretty sure he will lokk for a 3-4 years.

Living in Tampa his whole adult life I seriously doubt he leaves. He will take a homestead discount.
Tampa is such a nice region to live in.

 

[salbutera]

TBay has $6.686M cap space. Even if Stamkos agrees to a lower number than his present $8.5-million, he would need to take $6-million or less to fit under the cap with the rest of the roster remaining the same - Brisebois needs to shed at least $3-$4-million to make something work.

No way Stamkos will take less than what he previously earned, after the season he’s had including playoffs, and no way NHLPA will allow that

 

[The Great Weal]

let me reiterate Arpon Basu

“Expect Habs to be agressive finding scoring & adding physicality this summer”

I don't see how we can add much, we already have too many forwards. Sure there could be some injuries and trades, but realistically we aren't getting positive value for Gallagher/Anderson/Dvorak/Armia at their full cap hits without adding something. RHP will probably get waived, and it would be a giant slap Roy's face if we don't play him.

 

[salbutera]

I don't see how we can add much, we already have too many forwards. Sure there could be some injuries and trades, but realistically we aren't getting positive value for Gallagher/Anderson/Dvorak/Armia at their full cap hits without adding something. RHP will probably get waived, and it would be a giant slap Roy's face if we don't play him.

Slaf - Suzuki - CC
Newhook - Dach - ??
Roy - Dvorak - Gallagher
xx - Evans - Armia

There’s a top-6 opening to complement offense, and 4th line opening to add physicality & PK

Ylonen, Pezzetta & RHP are likely all gonzo

 

[The Great Weal]

Slaf - Suzuki - CC
Newhook - Dach - ??
Roy - Dvorak - Gallagher
xx - Evans - Armia

There’s a top-6 opening to complement offense, and 4th line opening to add physicality & PK

You forgot about Anderson. I’m not a fan of him but if they want to add physicality I doubt they would be eager to trade Anderson, especially since we would have to retain half his contract. I’m pretty convinced that the 4th liner will be William Carrier but we really don’t have the room to do anything else.

 

[schwang26]

I’m not aware of any contender that can take on $12M AAV, and there’s the MSL relationship factor

Since when does any high priced, ppg player come to Montreal? Kovalev? It doesn’t happen and it’s not going to happen. These guys play for winning teams, generally in warmer environments with less tax and less pressure. Not to mention they want another crack at a cup. They are not coming here. Decades of history should teach you that.

 

[Miller Time]

Since when does any high priced, ppg player come to Montreal? Kovalev? It doesn’t happen and it’s not going to happen. These guys play for winning teams, generally in warmer environments with less tax and less pressure. Not to mention they want another crack at a cup. They are not coming here. Decades of history should teach you that.

Kovalev was acquired by trade.

Cammalleri was a ppg UFA when we signed him.

 

[salbutera]

You forgot about Anderson. I’m not a fan of him but if they want to add physicality I doubt they would be eager to trade Anderson, especially since we would have to retain half his contract. I’m pretty convinced that the 4th liner will be William Carrier but we really don’t have the room to do anything else.

Ahh yes thanks -

Slaf - Suzuki - CC
Newhook - Dach - ??
Roy - Dvorak - Anderson
Gallagher - Evans - Armia

 

[salbutera]

Since when does any high priced, ppg player come to Montreal? Kovalev? It doesn’t happen and it’s not going to happen. These guys play for winning teams, generally in warmer environments with less tax and less pressure. Not to mention they want another crack at a cup. They are not coming here. Decades of history should teach you that.

You’re right Hossa (multiple times), Sundin, Tavares, Stamkos amongst other top end all said no.

But as Hughes stated publicly & admitted openly to Arpon Basu after l’affaire Redenbacher last summer one of the culture aspects HuGo want to change is to make Mtl a destination top end players will want to come to.

Make no doubt it will take Sun, moon & stars aligning to bait that first one to come to Mtl - the it’ll take a positive experience by that player to get the word out there, that’s it worked out well.

But there is potential for sun, moon & star alignment this summer…Big market / destination US teams are ALL maxed out to cap this summer except Chi - if there ever was a chance to lure a big fish Stamkos might be it this summer

People bring up Draisaitl etc but by 2025 summer many more US teams will free up $, and if there’s real market competition it’s almost a zero probability Habs land the big fish

Gorton from end of season presser:

When Gorton was general manager of the New York Rangers, Artemi Panarin was handed to him on a silver platter as an unrestricted free agent, and it was the city of New York that served as that draw at the time. Whether it’s your city, your history, your weather, your taxation rates, your fan base, every team needs some sort of attraction for talent to choose you over the 31 other teams in the league.

“The style of play that we play, I think it’s encouraging for our team,” Gorton said. “They like playing an offensive, thinking game, and I think it’s going to help us as we move forward as we develop players and acquire players.

“I think Montreal is going to be a place where players are going to want to play, I think we’re hearing that more. I think Marty’s a big part of that, we’re not naïve to think it’s us.”

 

[Runner77]

The thing is Stamkos is 36 years old…

Turned 34 on Feb. 7th.

 

[Kosseca]

Problem with signing any UFA is that the interesting one are likely do decline in term of offensive contribution by the time the team will want to push and compete. So you need to sign the one that can accept to play a secondary role in 2 or 3 yrs and that wont kill your cap by playing on the 3rd or 4th line.