Montreal Offseason UFA signings /trade predictions

[Andy]

No professional athlete ever leaves significant $ on the table…. Will not happen in this day & age.

Didn't Patrice Bergeron and Kucherov leave money on the table?

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Necas is my current RFA obsession. I like the cut of his jib. If we can pry him away from Carolina, and somehow land Demidov in the draft, we are all of the sudden extremely dangerous.

If not Necas, my second wishlist is Zegras. If we add Zegras, while somehow drafting Lindstrom, I am again a very happy man.

I would avoid the entire UFA crop this year as they are too old to fit with our core.

Yeah I like the idea of Necas myself. He’s a pretty good candidate for an offer sheet, actually. He’s worth the 1st, 2nd, 3rd range of 6.5-8.5m and I’m not sure Carolina matches anything north of 7m.

Outside of an offer sheet, Habs could also offer up the WPG 1st + CAL 1st . They could also opt to build something off a D man. There’s options there, for sure.

 

[rahad]

Yup 2-years / $12M AAV ($11M in bonus, $22M collected in 12-months - 1-day)

Avg 39G & missed 5GP total over last 3-full seasons + playoffs

The question is whether TBay will find a way to up their payout to $11M or will some team come out of left field and provide significant term (5-6 years), say Johnnie Utah

I do love Stamkos... But giving him 12m for a 34 years old player is beyond absurd....We will need to sign Slaf and Ghule very soon. Good luck convincing Slaf to take less than Cole or Suzuki by giving a 12m to Stamkos. We saw what happen to Toronto with Tavares.

I also don't see why would Stamkos sign with us? MSL? It will be his last chance to win the Stanley cup. He is going to a playoff team. I also don't see him producing 80+ with out a good team or good player like Kucherov.

 

[ottawa]

That lineup is soft and weak as f***.

Gallagher shouldn't be the extra forward when he was way better than Anderson who's there twice?

Well unfortunately our team sucks

 

[Saundies]

Stamkos is indeed a pipe dream, and one that I'm not sure I'm into. Great player and instantly becomes our best forward, but I can't see him wanting to come here in the latter part of his career and Tampa has won cups without him in the lineup (probably why they're looking to move on from him tbh). I looked as his games played over the last three years and it surprised me because I've always associated him with being a bandaid but even that's not enough.

Realistically, some posters may hate it too, I do think we trade for Zegras. Too much smoke for there not to be at least some fire happening there.

 

[Deebs]

Necas is my current RFA obsession. I like the cut of his jib. If we can pry him away from Carolina, and somehow land Demidov in the draft, we are all of the sudden extremely dangerous.

If not Necas, my second wishlist is Zegras. If we add Zegras, while somehow drafting Lindstrom, I am again a very happy man.

I would avoid the entire UFA crop this year as they are too old to fit with our core.

Necas would be a down a ways on my list. Raymond, Seider and Jarvis would be ahead of him if I were in an offer sheeting mood

 

[salbutera]

Didn't Patrice Bergeron and Kucherov leave money on the table?

Iirc - Kucherov took market, but no Fla state tax made take home equivalent or more than other potential locales

For Bergeron - he got screwed like Marchand they both signed long term deals before $alaires took off. Bergeron did the Lidstrom thing after his long term deal expired, 1-yr 35 & over bonus contract (like Krejci) with only base salary counting vs Bruins cap

 

[salbutera]

I do love Stamkos... But giving him 12m for a 34 years old player is beyond absurd....We will need to sign Slaf and Ghule very soon. Good luck convincing Slaf to take less than Cole or Suzuki by giving a 12m to Stamkos. We saw what happen to Toronto with Tavares.

I also don't see why would Stamkos sign with us? MSL? It will be his last chance to win the Stanley cup. He is going to a playoff team. I also don't see him producing 80+ with out a good team or good player like Kucherov.

Already posted, Habs have zero cap hurdles for next 4-years.

With Edmundson + Pearson off the books have $17M free for next season .

Savard + Armia + Dvorak + Evans off the books after 24-25 = $13M for Slaf + Guhle.
Also get $4.3M add with Petry + Allen retainment coming off

After 25-26, Matheson’s $4.875M comes off the books

After 26-27 Gallagher + Anderson = $11M off the books

All this doesn’t even take into account cap rising to $100M within 2-seasons, expedited by ramp up in revenues for VGK, Fla, Canes, Sea, and Utah coming in

As for why Stamkos would come? That’s the big question, HuGo haven’t been shy in proclaiming they are trying to change how top end players get over their hesitation of playing in Mtl, they took last years Redenbacher fiasco particularly hard “this type of thing doesn’t help what we’re trying to do here to get top end players interested in playing here” as they stated to Arpon Basu

MSL is their drawing card combine w offensive style being implemented by the Gen Z hockey whisperer.

In Stamkos case it hedges on TBay lowballing him + relationship factor w MSL & Vinny IMO

 

[417]

Didn't Patrice Bergeron and Kucherov leave money on the table?

Maybe in terms of cap hit to help their teams...but in actual dollars on the table?

We'd have to look at the details

 

[417]

Already posted, Habs have zero cap hurdles for next 4-years.

With Edmundson + Pearson off the books have $17M free for next season .

Savard + Armia + Dvorak + Evans off the books after 24-25 = $13M for Slaf + Guhle

After 25-26, Matheson’s $4.875M comes off the books

After 26-27 Gallagher + Anderson = $11M off the books

All this doesn’t even take into account cap rising to $100M within 2-seasons, expedited by ramp up in revenues for VGK, Fla, Canes, Sea, and Utah coming in

As for why Stamkos would come? That’s the big question, HuGo haven’t been shy in proclaiming they are trying to change how top end players get over their hesitation of playing in Mtl, they took last years Redenbacher fiasco particularly hard “this type of thing doesn’t help what we’re trying to do here to get top end players interested in playing here” as they stated to Arpon Basu

MSL is their drawing card along w offensive style being implemented. In Stamkos case it hedges on TBay lowballing him + relationship factor w MSL & Vinny

The Habs have over 12M tied up in Price & Allen next year...I understand that Price is LTIR and Allen is on the last year of his retained salary.

But it's still money tied up that they have to plan around.

 

[waitin425]

Necas would be a down a ways on my list. Raymond, Seider and Jarvis would be ahead of him if I were in an offer sheeting mood

Agreed. I would aim higher if we went the offer sheet route. In for a penny...... However, I wouldn't offer sheet anyone. Necas included. But, from what everyone seems to be saying, Carolina will have some off season decisions to make. I'd offer them an enticing package for Necas.

 

[salbutera]

The Habs have over 12M tied up in Price & Allen next year...I understand that Price is LTIR and Allen is on the last year of his retained salary.

But it's still money tied up that they have to plan around.

Including Petry + Allen retainmanent have $7M free. Cap gymnastics allowing Price on LTIR at roster set gets $17M

 

[Hins77]

Yeah I like the idea of Necas myself. He’s a pretty good candidate for an offer sheet, actually. He’s worth the 1st, 2nd, 3rd range of 6.5-8.5m and I’m not sure Carolina matches anything north of 7m.

Outside of an offer sheet, Habs could also offer up the WPG 1st + CAL 1st . They could also opt to build something off a D man. There’s options there, for sure.

They will…. Teraivanen, skje, pesce, martinook, guentzel are coming off the book. Necas is already paid 3 millions, then only the leaving of teravainen make space for resigning Necas…. Canes often let walk ufa at 28/29 years Old (hamilton, edmundson, faulk…they have an insane scouting group so they can do that

 

[Deebs]

Agreed. I would aim higher if we went the offer sheet route. In for a penny...... However, I wouldn't offer sheet anyone. Necas included. But, from what everyone seems to be saying, Carolina will have some off season decisions to make. I'd offer them an enticing package for Necas.

I wish the league would fully embrace the offersheet. I love it.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Unless Hughes knows someone like Draisaitl is coming to sign in 2025, I don't see the harm in adding Marchessault or Monahan or any top-6 veterans that want to play for us.

I think most tankers have their appetites filled and are ready to see us try and ice an actually competitive team. Our 2025 1st round pick ranking shouldn't be that important because the cupboards are well stocked and we have an extra 1st next year anyways.

 

[waitin425]

I wish the league would fully embrace the offersheet. I love it.

The Aho experiment and subsequently losing Kotka soured me a bit. Seems to be an unwritten rule amongst GM's to not do it. I do like the value of them though.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I don't see them going the offersheet route.

It's not their style nor would it be prudent. Imagine we give away a top 10 pick next year.

 

[rahad]

The Habs have over 12M tied up in Price & Allen next year...I understand that Price is LTIR and Allen is on the last year of his retained salary.

But it's still money tied up that they have to plan around.

I has hoping we could trade Price to Arizona..... Is going to be hard to trade his contract now.

 

[salbutera]

I has hoping we could trade Price to Arizona..... Is going to be hard to trade his contract now.

They were never going to trade that contract to Az or anyone else, until post July 1st 2025, the way the bonus payments are structured - there’s $7.5M in bonu$e$ due July 1st and again next July 1

Base salary is $2M, this & next years as it was for last year

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

Didn't Patrice Bergeron and Kucherov leave money on the table?

Tavares apparently turned down a higher contract (7 x $13M) from San Jose as well when signing with Toronto.

 

[BLONG7]

Didn't Patrice Bergeron and Kucherov leave money on the table?

And Stamkos himself, when the rumour was 11-12 M from the leafs............stayed in TB for 8.5M with almost no taxes
Players leave money on the table at times, but just not very often.

 

[salbutera]

Tavares apparently turned down a higher contract (7 x $13M) from San Jose as well when signing with Toronto.

It was less take home, Tavares as a US resident has a heavy bonus structured contract like Matthews.

SJS would’ve needed to offer $14M per to come close to matching Leafs offer

Unfortunately for Tavares, Revenue Canada has caught on he’s not spending 6-months + 1-day in US, hence, the present action by govt to get repaid back taxe$$$

And Stamkos himself, when the rumour was 11-12 M from the leafs............stayed in TB for 8.5M with almost no taxes
Players leave money on the table at times, but just not very often.

Stamkos also met with Habs in person (Molson & MB remote meeting w Leafs

 

[Vachon23]

but even if he was 27 years old and looking for a long term contract, he wouldn't get 12 M$.

I would give prime Stamkos 12m any day of the week

 

[salbutera]

The thing is Stamkos is 36 years old and will go to a destination of his choice. He will get good money but there won't be a bidding war for him. If he wants to play for Mtl for whatever reason, he will accept a salary that make sense for both parties.

Nobody will give him more than 8M$ per year, let alone 12 M$. I mean who actually makes 12 M$ per in the NHL? I like Stamkos and would love to have him with the Habs, but even if he was 27 years old and looking for a long term contract, he wouldn't get 12 M$.

I guess the 12M$ idea is probably to give him a contract that he can't refuse. But he would still refuse if he doesn't want to play here so its moot point.

That’s correct, whatever that number is… better put, what market is willing to pay + 20% topper, most importantly 90% of $ paid out in 12-months minus 1-day

BTW - Stamkos turned 34 in Feb, he’d turn 36 during last year of proposed deal

 

[417]

Including Petry + Allen retainmanent have $7M free. Cap gymnastics allowing Price on LTIR at roster set gets $17M

That's the point...the cap gymnastics they have to do every offseason and beginning of this season makes this idea that they have a lot of cap flexibility a mirage.

They do, but they don't.

At the conclusion of next season, they'll start to really have more flexibility and at the conclusion of that following season (2025-26), that's when things truly open up because they no longer have to do cap gymnastics with Carey Price's 10.5M cap hit

Then they'll have true autonomy over their salary cap.

I has hoping we could trade Price to Arizona..... Is going to be hard to trade his contract now.

2 more years left...maybe they'll be able to move it next offseason if they need too. But that burden (no offense to Price) is almost done.