Monahan: Trade or Extend (assuming a decent season)

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

Slow steady build, one piece at a time. Monahan is a good piece, provided his contract demands are reasonable, which I feel they could well be. ...

This is the key, and a justification for keeping him. The teams that walk away with the Cup tend to have tremendous depth. There is often a star forward, like Eichel or MacKinnon, but there is also tremendous depth, not to mention a mobile defense and decent (or better) goaltending. If we are trading Monahan, the team has to have a reasonably high certainty that the prospect and/or pick coming to the team is at a comparable level of talent, and right now, Monahan is playing like its top center, or even forward, while almost as effective scoring as, and more complete than, Caufield. While still having plenty of runway left. I'd be loathe to squander an important piece of that much-needed high-performing forward depth, on a lottery ticket whose upside could easily be lower.

 

[Frankenheimer]

Because you are betting he doesn't get injured further and that his skills don't decline in 3-4 years when we are actually competitive.

His timeline doesn't match up. It's a needless gamble for the Habs to make if they can get a strong deadline return and parlay those assets into someone who is better suited for our competitive window.

What is the timeline? 4 years from now? Suzuki will be 28. We need to break from this thinking. There is a limit to how much a "competitive window" can be planned. The team is playing well right now, growing before our eyes. You can't just reign that in for 4 more years and continue to trade for futures. We need to take each year between now and 4 years from now and look at it as an opportunity to both develop and compete.

Trading Monahan would send a terrible message and deflate the team, especially if we're vying for a spot in the playoffs. We already got a first for Monahan, it's already a winning trade, now let's make a mid-term commitment so the team continues developing and competing. Monahan's are not available in free agency. People keep saying we'll get one when needed, ok... the last Monahan was Saku Koivu, about 20 years ago. He is arguably the team's best and most complete forward at the moment. We're starving for offensive talent, and now we're going to trade a player who is not only excellent at both ends of the ice, but puts in a top effort every game, and controlling the flow of play by winning key draws, and playing like a leader and captain?

I don't understand how people think competitive windows can be engineered to this level of proximity and certainty after what we've seen in Seattle and Vegas the last few years.

 

[LaP]

What is the timeline? 4 years from now? Suzuki will be 28. We need to break from this thinking. There is a limit to how much a "competitive window" can be planned. The team is playing well right now, growing before our eyes. You can't just reign that in for 4 more years and continue to trade for futures. We need to take each year between now and 4 years from now and look at it as an opportunity to both develop and compete.

Trading Monahan would send a terrible message and deflate the team, especially if we're vying for a spot in the playoffs. We already got a first for Monahan, it's already a winning trade, now let's make a mid-term commitment so the team continues developing and competing. Monahan's are not available in free agency. People keep saying we'll get one when needed, ok... the last Monahan was Saku Koivu, about 20 years ago. He is arguably the team's best and most complete forward at the moment. We're starving for offensive talent, and now we're going to trade a player who is not only excellent at both ends of the ice, but puts in a top effort every game, and controlling the flow of play by winning key draws, and playing like a leader and captain?

I don't understand how people think competitive windows can be engineered to this level of proximity and certainty after what we've seen in Seattle and Vegas the last few years.

The problem is people see this as a on/off switch. Doesn't work this way. You don't win a cup on the first day of a window. It usually happen in the middle or it or toward the end. There's exception like the Pens but for most teams playoffs success will happen after a few years. We are likely 4 years away from seriously competing for a cup. We'll make playoffs before that. We might have a depth run before that. But the kids will need to get some playoffs experience before it happens.

KH should still plan ahead instead of now for a year or two. Planning now would be a mistake that would likely bite us in the *** 4 years from now. Also the window wont end with Suzuki. He's the oldest player of our rebuild. Most of the other guys are between 19 and 22 and have still 8 years minimum of competitive window. Seguin is 31 and Benn 34 and the Stars are a serious contender in my nook. If we win a cup there's a good chance Suzuki will be a vet when it will happen.

 

[Frankenheimer]

I don't recommend planning to start competing only when Suzuki is 27-28.



We should plan to be the best we can be, each and every year over a long-term basis, by investing in talent. If Monahan is good for 3 years, then try to sign him for three, then replace him internally or from the outside when he fades.

This is not only about Sean. It is about the plan to amass 11 strong players and to have a strong flow of new talent coming through every year.

Let's not go the loser route of sucking every year, then hoping for a magic switch to go on one year. Slow steady build, one piece at a time. Monahan is a good piece, provided his contract demands are reasonable, which I feel they could well be. Hughes should at least ask, if Sean is still healthy and producing through early February.

yes exactly.

 

[Max2]

You need a few good vets who can actually play the game like Monahan Any team looking for a guy like him at the deadline would be offering a very late first rounder and you would never find a guy like him that late in the draft.Can't comprise a team of young players and picks. I would extend for 3 years if he stays healthy.

 

[Frankenheimer]

The problem is people see this as a on/off switch. Doesn't work this way. You don't win a cup on the first day of a window. It usually happen in the middle or it or toward the end. There's exception like the Pens but for most teams playoffs success will happen after a few years. We are likely 4 years away from seriously competing for a cup. We'll make playoffs before that. We might have a depth run before that. But the kids will need to get some playoffs experience before it happens. KH should still play ahead instead of now. Planning now would be a mistake that would bit us in the *** 4 years from now.

You're presenting this as an on/off switch. A lot of these points are predicated on predictions and unknown facts that will determine the right course of action in due time. By February, we will know if Monahan has overcome or not his most recent injury struggles, and we will know if the team is already competing for playoffs.

Neither of us can predict how this year will evolve, but if Monahan and team continue playing like this, it would be a mistake to trade him. If he's hit with another injury bug, then he will be moved for what he can be moved for at that time. If we're out of the playoffs, and clearly at the bottom end of the league, then another reason to move him.

But if we move him while he's healthy, performing at this level, and with the team competing and developing, I mean you better have a very solid justification.

 

[WeThreeKings]

What is the timeline? 4 years from now? Suzuki will be 28. We need to break from this thinking. There is a limit to how much a "competitive window" can be planned. The team is playing well right now, growing before our eyes. You can't just reign that in for 4 more years and continue to trade for futures. We need to take each year between now and 4 years from now and look at it as an opportunity to both develop and compete.

Trading Monahan would send a terrible message and deflate the team, especially if we're vying for a spot in the playoffs. We already got a first for Monahan, it's already a winning trade, now let's make a mid-term commitment so the team continues developing and competing. Monahan's are not available in free agency. People keep saying we'll get one when needed, ok... the last Monahan was Saku Koivu, about 20 years ago. He is arguably the team's best and most complete forward at the moment. We're starving for offensive talent, and now we're going to trade a player who is not only excellent at both ends of the ice, but puts in a top effort every game, and controlling the flow of play by winning key draws, and playing like a leader and captain?

I don't understand how people think competitive windows can be engineered to this level of proximity and certainty after what we've seen in Seattle and Vegas the last few years.

• The timeline is what it is, we don't know exactly what it is.. but you have to separate Monahan now from future Monahan. He isn't young and his injury history very recently has been terrible. You can't safely commit term and money to this guy and since he isn't in the right window of age with the core, the decision is obvious. You don't break from this thinking because the opposite thinking is the last decade under Bergevin. The team is young, is buoyed by unsustainable goaltending and will fall back down. We are two drafts removed from 1st overall and one draft removed from 5th overall; do you honestly think this small sample size underscored by unsustainable numbers is going to hold up over 82 games and that we are realistically at a point where you declare the rebuild over? 5-10 years to be competitive out of a rebuild. Those are tried and true numbers. This is not about tanking the team to get a better draft pick, this is about turning a guy into a valuable asset you can use to acquire someone better suited to the window. What has Hughes done since he's been put in place to suggest he will over-rely on picking players vs. acquiring age appropriate players for the core?
• This is about realistically projecting Monahan and the chances of him sustaining this level of play into the future is just not viable. This is the same line of thinking that had people celebrating the Gallagher extension. Miles on a body turning to their 30s, those contracts RARELY age well.
• This team is realistic about who they are and where they are going. They don't have to get anything but the GM is building to make a sustainable Stanley Cup contender. Not fruitlessly go out in round 1. They are competitors but they are also smart individuals who know the reality of where they are. It's all pointless since they won't be competing for the play-offs. This is a hot start, it's not sustainable and it won't be sustained.

I know we want to short cut our way out of this.. but this team is far better served moving Monahan and looking at their opportunities to try to bring in an Elias Pettersson, William Nylander, Leon Draisatl, etc.

 

[LaP]

I don't recommend planning to start competing only when Suzuki is 27-28.



We should plan to be the best we can be, each and every year over a long-term basis, by investing in talent. If Monahan is good for 3 years, then try to sign him for three, then replace him internally or from the outside when he fades.

This is not only about Sean. It is about the plan to amass 11 strong players and to have a strong flow of new talent coming through every year.

Let's not go the loser route of sucking every year, then hoping for a magic switch to go on one year. Slow steady build, one piece at a time. Monahan is a good piece, provided his contract demands are reasonable, which I feel they could well be. Hughes should at least ask, if Sean is still healthy and producing through early February.

But do you recommend planning to start competing when Guhle is 21 and SLaf 19? I would not recommend it personally. We are 1-2 years away from being able to say we should plan to win now. KH should have already had a plan in mind when he was named and he should stick to this plan. Changing the plan cause Allen and Montembeault play over their head and Monahan return from the dead would be doing the same mistake we have been doing for 30 years now.

The risk to be stuck with a 5.5 millions a year Monahan for 4 years on LTIR and Montembeault having to return his crystal shoes after 3 years (midnight) is super high. Stick to the plan. Don't change it for some instant gratification.

 

[Frankenheimer]

• The timeline is what it is, we don't know exactly what it is.. but you have to separate Monahan now from future Monahan. He isn't young and his injury history very recently has been terrible. You can't safely commit term and money to this guy and since he isn't in the right window of age with the core, the decision is obvious. You don't break from this thinking because the opposite thinking is the last decade under Bergevin. The team is young, is buoyed by unsustainable goaltending and will fall back down. We are two drafts removed from 1st overall and one draft removed from 5th overall; do you honestly think this small sample size underscored by unsustainable numbers is going to hold up over 82 games and that we are realistically at a point where you declare the rebuild over? 5-10 years to be competitive out of a rebuild. Those are tried and true numbers. This is not about tanking the team to get a better draft pick, this is about turning a guy into a valuable asset you can use to acquire someone better suited to the window. What has Hughes done since he's been put in place to suggest he will over-rely on picking players vs. acquiring age appropriate players for the core?
• This is about realistically projecting Monahan and the chances of him sustaining this level of play into the future is just not viable. This is the same line of thinking that had people celebrating the Gallagher extension. Miles on a body turning to their 30s, those contracts RARELY age well.
• This team is realistic about who they are and where they are going. They don't have to get anything but the GM is building to make a sustainable Stanley Cup contender. Not fruitlessly go out in round 1. They are competitors but they are also smart individuals who know the reality of where they are. It's all pointless since they won't be competing for the play-offs. This is a hot start, it's not sustainable and it won't be sustained.

I know we want to short cut our way out of this.. but this team is far better served moving Monahan and looking at their opportunities to try to bring in an Elias Pettersson, William Nylander, Leon Draisatl, etc.

What would help is you specifying when you would trade Monahan. It sounds like you're saying he should be traded now, if you think he'll be injured in short time. And if you're not saying now, but in February, while healthy, you will be trading someone is had 6 months of continuous health and high standard of play. So when are you trading him?

 

[WeThreeKings]

What would help is you specifying when you would trade Monahan. It sounds like you're saying he should be traded now, if you think he'll be injured in short time. And if you're not saying now, but in February, while healthy, you will be trading someone is had 6 months of continuous health and high standard of play. So when are you trading him?

You'd be trading him around the deadline, because that is when a contender is going to be financially capable of doing so and will be more comfortable trading their 1st round pick. Not to mention teams are going to want to ensure he is healthy for the stretch run/play-offs.

There's nothing of 6 months of continuous health or high level play that will change my assessment that giving Monahan money and term, at 29, wrist surgery, two hip surgeries, and a torn whatever last year, will make any sense for this team to do.

 

[Frankenheimer]

But do you recommend planning to start competing when Guhle is 21 and SLaf 19? I would not recommend it personally. We are 1-2 years away from being able to say we should plan to win now. KH should have already had a plan in mind when he was named and he should stick to this plan. Changing the plan cause Allen and Montembeault play over their head and Monahan return from the dead would be doing the same mistake we have been doing for 30 years now.

For me, there is a false dichotomy in what you're proposing. A team of professionals is going to compete, and if they've reached an internal threshold of talent and development, they will compete to a level that will put them in contention for the playoffs. You can't control that. At that juncture, you can start "planning for cup contention" by becoming a buyer at the deadline and trading assets (which nobody on this board is suggesting), or you can simply maintain status quo (keeping the players you have) and continue the development path. Two paths. The path you're suggesting is a third path, which is to halt the development, and therefore reduce competitiveness, by dealing a key player, in the hopes of obtaining a player that will fulfill the same function 4 years down the road, but better, cheaper and healthier.

What you and others are doing is immediately opting for the third path, when a sensible second path is already being drawn that does not involve committing to being a buyer in the market, but which does involve remaining competitive for the sake of development, and also for the experience you've already cited as necessary, getting to the playoffs. For that, players like Monahan are necessary.

 

[Frankenheimer]

You'd be trading him around the deadline, because that is when a contender is going to be financially capable of doing so and will be more comfortable trading their 1st round pick. Not to mention teams are going to want to ensure he is healthy for the stretch run/play-offs.

There's nothing of 6 months of continuous health or high level play that will change my assessment that giving Monahan money and term, at 29, wrist surgery, two hip surgeries, and a torn whatever last year, will make any sense for this team to do.

Ok thanks, that's pretty clear. A late round 1st pick for a 29 year old first line center with injury issues. It's a defensible position, I suppose, just don't understand the point of pulling the plug on the playoffs and not taking some minimal risks.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Ok thanks, that's pretty clear. A late round 1st pick for a 29 year old first line center with injury issues. It's a defensible position, I suppose, just don't understand the point of pulling the plug on the playoffs and not taking some minimal risks.

They aren't looking through the lens of just getting into the play-offs; they are looking at the lens of how do we create a sustainable cup contending team.

I don't think the answer to that question is spending money and term on a guy like Monahan with his age and recent injury history. I also don't think they'd be drafting his replacement, I believe the plan is to have a war chest so full of assets like that that they can go out and get a player that better fits the age appropriate window of this core that addresses a bigger need.

 

[jaffy27]

You'd be trading him around the deadline, because that is when a contender is going to be financially capable of doing so and will be more comfortable trading their 1st round pick. Not to mention teams are going to want to ensure he is healthy for the stretch run/play-offs.

There's nothing of 6 months of continuous health or high level play that will change my assessment that giving Monahan money and term, at 29, wrist surgery, two hip surgeries, and a torn whatever last year, will make any sense for this team to do.

In your opinion….what would be fair value involving a Monahan trade?

I’m in the sign him ta a 3yr extension at around 3.3m$ to 3.6m$ per.

Of course this is as long as he is healthy all the way through TDL week.

Of course there’s always a price im willing to accept

I’d be more inclined to trade him for a solid prospect than a late 1st rounder. I’m aware of his injury history but at the same time we’ll need to start thinking about keeping good veteran players around if we’re to compete at some point.

like which one?

Just curious what you would consider a solid prospect.

If it’s titanium solid, I’m on board….but I’m 75% not on board with a 20th overall plus pick. (Meaning I wouldn’t be losing my mind)

 

[WeThreeKings]

In your opinion….what would be fair value involving a Monahan trade?

I’m in the sign him ta a 3yr extension at around 3.3m$ to 3.6m$ per.

Of course this is as long as he is healthy all the way through TDL week.

Of course there’s always a price im willing to accept

like which one?

Just curious what you would consider a solid prospect.

If it’s titanium solid, I’m on board….but I’m 75% not on board with a 20th overall plus pick. (Meaning I wouldn’t be losing my mind)

As soon as there's a 1st round pick on the table, that's the moment you are able to hammer it out.. outside of that, the 2nd round pick is the lowest I go with the knowledge we/he has no interest in signing here for reasonable dollars or term.

If you aren't getting that and he wants to come back, your parameters of an extension are about the ones that would be favorable to Montreal. However, I don't think Monahan comes back on 3 years term. He'll want 5-7 and he will want money in the 5s or higher.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

As soon as there's a 1st round pick on the table, that's the moment you are able to hammer it out.. outside of that, the 2nd round pick is the lowest I go with the knowledge we/he has no interest in signing here for reasonable dollars or term.

If you aren't getting that and he wants to come back, your parameters of an extension are about the ones that would be favorable to Montreal. However, I don't think Monahan comes back on 3 years term. He'll want 5-7 and he will want money in the 5s or higher.

I agree that he probably doesn't bite at a 3 yr contract as this is probably gonna be his last big deal relatively speaking. He's not old or anything but of course as we're all aware, the injury history is the biggest issue when contemplating a long term extension for him. If he does stay relatively healthy this year and wants to come back, I'd be open to him getting around a 5x5 contract even if Habs have to eat the last year. He's the perfect 3C after Suzuki and Dach. One great thing that he has is that he produces through IQ and not athletism which speaks to his ability to still produce even as he gets a bit older which isn't even super old. If by TDL, he goes to Hughes and tells him that he believes in the future of the team and wants to commit on a fair deal for both sides, I'd pull the trigger. If he's at all hesitant, auction him off. A point producing, two way, big C on a cheap deal, that'll be highly coveted at TDL

 

[viceroy]

Dvorak can fill in as the #2C after the deadline and as #3C next year, then be traded at the deadline as rental.

Dvo can do naught of what Monahan can. He's got ZERO leadership, intensity or skills comparatively speaking. He's the worst type of example for the kids, he's just some mercenary cashing his checks.

That also *really* scares me in a way because, you're right and I agree, but it implies that this is the core and we will only build around those guys.
While I love Cole and Suzuki it sure feels like a repeat of the plan from past 30 years...

Our chance to have an A+ core disappeared when OUR 1st overall was in weak year, Slafs' no McDavid or Bedard. Heck he's a mediocre 1st rounder in some years.

You've already got Suzuki-Dach down the middle. Beck will be a 3C going forward, it's just a matter of time for that.

I don't get this attitude. Some people are crapping on Monahan being able to stay healthy but then count on Dach being some kind of stalwart. Sorry guys but Dach inspires ZERO confidence in me in being able to stay healthy.

 

[26Mats]

I agree that he probably doesn't bite at a 3 yr contract as this is probably gonna be his last big deal relatively speaking. He's not old or anything but of course as we're all aware, the injury history is the biggest issue when contemplating a long term extension for him. If he does stay relatively healthy this year and wants to come back, I'd be open to him getting around a 5x5 contract even if Habs have to eat the last year. He's the perfect 3C after Suzuki and Dach. One great thing that he has is that he produces through IQ and not athletism which speaks to his ability to still produce even as he gets a bit older which isn't even super old. If by TDL, he goes to Hughes and tells him that he believes in the future of the team and wants to commit on a fair deal for both sides, I'd pull the trigger. If he's at all hesitant, auction him off. A point producing, two way, big C on a cheap deal, that'll be highly coveted at TDL

Injuries aside, would be nice to have Monahan locked up, and have the following core to build around for the next 5 years:

Caufield - Suzuki - Roy
Newhook - Dach - Slaf
RHP (hopefully) - Monahan - Anderson (?)
Heineman - Evan's - Ylonen
Gallagher, pez

If Monahan is healthy at the TDL, does the injury history stop you from giving him 5 years???

 

[WeThreeKings]

Dvo can do naught of what Monahan can. He's got ZERO leadership, intensity or skills comparatively speaking. He's the worst type of example for the kids, he's just some mercenary cashing his checks.



Our chance to have an A+ core disappeared when OUR 1st overall was in weak year, Slafs' no McDavid or Bedard. Heck he's a mediocre 1st rounder in some years.



I don't get this attitude. Some people are crapping on Monahan being able to stay healthy but then count on Dach being some kind of stalwart. Sorry guys but Dach inspires ZERO confidence in me in being able to stay healthy.

They're not crapping on Monahan being able to stay healthy, they're talking about giving term into the 30s on a guy who's had significant injuries and interruptions to his seasons in his recent history leading into his 30s.

Dach's two major injuries were fluke plays.. and he's 22 years old. Completely different from signing a 29 year old.

 

[26Mats]

Dvo can do naught of what Monahan can. He's got ZERO leadership, intensity or skills comparatively speaking. He's the worst type of example for the kids, he's just some mercenary cashing his checks.

From all accounts, Dvo is well liked by his teammates. I have no problem keeping him as a winger. I don't want any of our offensive players getting stuck on a line he leads as a center.

But imo he's got skills that could make him a solid complementary winger to offensive players. Can make plays with his linemates, good shot, good in the corners and behind the net, can play all positions, up and down the lineup.

 

[KevSkillz4]

At this point, if he stay healthy before the trade deadline. I would keep him at least if Habs receive a really really good offer.

He is a really good hockey player and Habs don't only need young players, they need good veterans and Monahan is a perfect veteran to keep for young players.

I would 100% trade Dvorak and Anderson before him.

 

[WeThreeKings]

At this point, if he stay healthy before the trade deadline. I would keep him at least if Habs receive a really really good offer.

He is a really good hockey player and Habs don't only need young players, they need good veterans and Monahan is a perfect veteran to keep for young players.

I would 100% trade Dvorak and Anderson before him.

So would anyone but they aren't gonna get you much, if anything, which is why they will still and provide 'veteran' leadership and Monahan gets traded for assets we need to build a contender.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Injuries aside, would be nice to have Monahan locked up, and have the following core to build around for the next 5 years:

Caufield - Suzuki - Roy
Newhook - Dach - Slaf
__________ - Monahan - ________
Heineman - Evan's - Ylonen
Gallagher, pez

If Monahan is healthy at the TDL, does the injury history stop you from giving him 5 years???

It's tricky cause even last year when he was hurt, it wasn't a reoccurring injury, he had a broken foot which wasn't affected prior. He doesn't play a careless game either. You're probably locking him up until he's 33-34. That isn't terrible age wise and having him long term would really help Habs compete in 1-2 years for the playoffs and beyond. He'd also add a veteran presence on the forward group that is sorely missing long term besides Gallagher.

But to answer your question, yes I would but on a fair AAV

 

[Dach Vader]

He plays a style that should age well. If he's able to stay healthy. I could see him being an effective player for a good while.

I guess it depends on where the teams at and what the offer is come the deadline. A late first round pick is likely not going to be as good as he is.

He's been really solid and wins a ton of face-offs. If that continues, he could be bring back a good package.

He's one of few veterans on the team that I like. Clearly the young guys like him too.

 

[KevSkillz4]

So would anyone but they aren't gonna get you much, if anything, which is why they will still and provide 'veteran' leadership and Monahan gets traded for assets we need to build a contender.

Yeah agree with you. But a healthy Monahan, that's a good piece for a cup contender. Habs are going to be a really good team in 3 years and Monahan will be a 32 years old player, that still good hockey left in him. He will be the oldest guy like Weber and Price in 2021. They need a really good veteran like Monahan in playoff. That's my opinion!