Monahan: Trade or Extend (assuming a decent season)

[NewDef]

If the habs are not near a playoff spot, then 100% trade him.

We can revisit signing him during the offseason. Those numbers probably don't make sense for the habs though. There's monahan injury history, but also you have to consider that Roy, Farrell, Beck, Heineman, etc. are all prospects that will need a top 9 spot in the very near future. Having Monahan means 1 less top 9 spot.

True but of the bunch only Beck is a center and Dvorak is on the way out maybe at TDL as a deluxe 4th center for a contender team with retention.

Monahan does'nt need retention. I would trade him for 1st at tdl and welcome him back at 3x4m next season if he's willing to take 3rd line duty.

Anyhow, i just love this player. IQ is top notch, he's everything we mean when talking about a quality veteran. What a trade and signing that was!

 

[Sterling Archer]

Trade him and try to resign him in the offseason to swap him in for DVo

 

[NeptunesTrident]

Trade him then try to re-sign him in the off-season. His injury history isn’t limited to Montreal. If they can get a 1st in the 20 range they have to do it. Then re-sign him this summer. It’s not like they have an issue using LTIR for injured players if he goes down again.

 

[tinyzombies]

A low first isn't going to cut it, not with that salary.

 

[WinterLion]

T-R-A-D-E Trade trade trade!!

 

[Tyson]

If he is healthy, you easily extend him 3x4

 

[Saundies]

I love Moneyhands and I would love for him to stay a Hab. He's like the younger version of Corey Perry IMO. Sign him longer term if he'll take it.

 

[JianYang]

You have to trade him. If he stays healthy, he can yeild a first rounder. It's the right thing to do for a team in rebuild. Besides, you have to think the odds of him getting re-injured are high in future years. Trade him while you can.

I'll go in the minority and say I want to keep him. He doesn't prevent us from losing but he's fun to watch. We're just gonna pick a bust with the late first anyways.

He doesn't prevent us from losing? How do you figure that? Look at the Habs record with him in the lineup vs out of the lineup.

He's one of the glue guys on this club.

 

[TT1]

extend of course, i'd do 3 years tho

 

[nhlfan9191]

It’s too risky to sign him to anything longer then 1-2 years and I’m guessing if he has a healthy season he’ll want more. Trade him and thank him for his services.

 

[MasterD]

I don't know about 4 years, but I'd do 2 or 3 years in a heartbeat. Even during a rebuild you need some good veterans.

Assuming he's healthy enough to play 65+ games this year, I'd sign him, then get rid of Pearson/Anderson/Armia/Gallagher (whoever we CAN get rid of).

He sounds like a great guy to be around, good vet, plays C, wins faceoffs, what else can you ask for, except health?

We already got the first for him, anyway

 

[Scriptor]

Trade and re-sign in the summer.

Wet dream scenario. Not likely. You trade him, you've moved on.

It's just a choice to make That depends on the return.

I'm personally all for getting as many high picks for 2025 with our veterans, a first, then, for Monahan, another for Anderson (but two second rounders, including one in 2025, sounds more likely as time goes by), a 2nd rounder in 2025 for Savard, a 3rd rounder in 2025 for Pearson, another 2nd rounder, in 2025, plus a 3rd rounder, some other draft, for Dvorak next year, a 3rd rounder for Armia at half price in 2025, a 2nd rounder in 2025 for Allen...

IMO, we can end up with three 1st round picks in 2025 and six 2nd rounders, plus four 3rd rounders, plenty of draft assets and prospects you've identified as tradebaitby then to make a huge splash and get an elite forward south of 30, stil, a potential #1G and a a few good picks at that draft.

Monahan, if it's just a 1st round pick, not a 1st round pick and a good prospect, like we got for Toffoli, I look into extending him for 3 years at a price tag that considers the injury history.

One shouldn't discount Monahan's impact on the development offer better prospects...

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Trade , if healthy , at this rate he could fetch a 1st+ a good prospect like A tier.

Hard to sign him at long term when he's not really in our contention windows and his health issues in the last years.

He is great , but at long term , you gotta trade him.

He will be 30 at the start of next season , not the type of guy you want to give 5-6 years with a team that struggle to beat bottom tier teams.

He will be around 32-33 when we are a playoff team if everything goes well. That's if he's still heathly and not LITR

 

[River Meadow]

Trade, and it's not even close.

 

[Miller Time]

Ideally both...

Trade him to his destination of choice (or say top 3 to juice the best return) with a wink wink agreement on a summertime extension... Then sign him in the summer for 2-4yrs @4-6M (2@6, 3@5, [email protected])

Win win

 

[HuGort]

If Habs in playoff position at deadline cannot trade him. If not, Hughes handles it right. Go to Monahan first see what he wants. Generally if we trade them they don't sign back

 

[BaseballCoach]

So let me see if I got this right.

We are desperately trying to shed the salaries of our overpaid injury prone players but yet people want to give a 4 year 4.5 million dollar contract to a guy who’s had major surgeries and heading into his 30’s?

What are people smoking?

The difference is that the overpaid players we want to move are overpaid becuase they are not very good.

Injured players can go on LTIR if it is serious.

I voted yes, even though I would only do three years at that price, or if 4 years, a lower hit.

That contract would still be better value than Anderson's., just because Monahan is a C that is great on draws as well as being a productive scorer.

If Habs in playoff position at deadline cannot trade him. If not, Hughes handles it right. Go to Monahan first see what he wants. Generally if we trade them they don't sign back

In real life, true.

 

[FrankMTL]

Like seriously, we never seem to learn our lesson on these forums. We complain when we're stuck with long term contracts to broken down players, yet some are ready to jump back in and do the same thing again.

If you get offered a first round pick for him, (or an equivalent good young prospect) you take it and run. If he loves Montreal, he can always be re-signed in the off-season. I get posters falling in love with the player, but this is business and we're still rebuilding. Cash your chips in while they're still worth something.

 

[Essenege]

If we’re in a playoff spot, you simply can’t trade him. The effect on team morale and motivation isn’t worth a late 1st round pick.

We have a lot of good young players on the team right now. If they are performing the #1 priority becomes making sure players keep it up.

If it’s “in-between”, team is doing good but on the outside looking in for a playoff spot, Im still extending at anything under 5M/4Y.

if the teams doesn’t show much improvement, you sell. Contending is too far out so he doesn’t fit.

 

[GrandBison]

If the plan is to extend him, maybe they should look right now for an agreement.

 

[Essenege]

Like seriously, we never seem to learn our lesson on these forums. We complain when we're stuck with long term contracts to broken down players, yet some are ready to jump back in and do the same thing again.

If you get offered a first round pick for him, (or an equivalent good young prospect) you take it and run. If he loves Montreal, he can always be re-signed in the off-season. I get posters falling in love with the player, but this is business and we're still rebuilding. Cash your chips in while they're still worth something.

You ain’t the team doctor and neither am I.

His injury history means we can have a top 6 forward on the cheap. If the doctors assign correct probabilities of injury / injury related regression, it should be accounted in.

Example : fair value w/o injuries 6.5M
Pblties of injury/regression : 40%

Adjusted fair value : 40%x1M + 60%x6.5M

= 4.4M

This is the kind of calculation that should have been made for Gallagher or frankly in extending any 29 y/o players….at the right price it’s ok to take a risk.

If they think the risk is greater, adjust term or salary lower.

 

[FrankMTL]

You ain’t the team doctor and neither am I.

His injury history means we can have a top 6 forward on the cheap. If the doctors assign correct probabilities of injury / injury related regression, it should be accounted in.

Example : fair value w/o injuries 6.5M
Pblties of injury/regression : 40%

Adjusted fair value : 40%x1M + 60%x6.5M

= 4.4M

This is the kind of calculation that should always be made for Gallagher or frankly in extending any 29 y/o players….at the right price it’s ok to take a risk.

If they think the risk is greater, adjust term or salary lower.

Listen, you can use as many math calculations and risk assessment strategies as you want, all i'm saying is that with a player that has injury history (anything can pop up at any time with these types of players) I wouldn't risk it, especially if we can get a nice asset for the rebuild. If i'm offered a first round pick or good prospect that fits in our timeline, I take it.

 

[River Meadow]

Like seriously, we never seem to learn our lesson on these forums. We complain when we're stuck with long term contracts to broken down players, yet some are ready to jump back in and do the same thing again.

If you get offered a first round pick for him, (or an equivalent good young prospect) you take it and run. If he loves Montreal, he can always be re-signed in the off-season. I get posters falling in love with the player, but this is business and we're still rebuilding. Cash your chips in while they're still worth something.

Right!

Perhaps some people lean towards being a bit more sentimental I suppose, because logically, IMO, this is as clear as day, given his age, where we are as a team, his injury history, etc...

 

[Essenege]

Listen, you can use as many math calculations and risk assessment strategies as you want, all i'm saying is that with a player that has injury history (anything can pop up at any time with these types of players) I wouldn't risk it, especially if we can get a nice asset for the rebuild. If i'm offered a first round pick or good prospect that fits in our timeline, I take it.

Agreed on the bolded. I think we shouldn’t be aiming at draft picks, unless our young core shows no progression.

 

[ReHabs]

If the plan is to extend him, maybe they should look right now for an agreement.

Better to wait 'til closer to the deadline. Monahan wouldn't want to hitch his wagon to a non-competitive team either.

I respect @Essenege's analysis above. You can't sell him if the team is in the playoff hunt but you can't commit to him without taking into account his injury history. Interesting case unfolding before us but I think we all know it's likelier than not he will be sold to the highest bidder around the TDL.