- Feb 24, 2015
- 22,540
- 37,604
Monahan Gone
- Thread starter johnnyonthspot
- Start date
- Status
gojetsgo
Registered User
- Nov 1, 2015
- 10,773
- 29,895
15 1st
11 2nd
we spent 2 2nd's on dillon and 1 on nino which is pretty good value as well
- Feb 24, 2015
- 22,540
- 37,604
voyageur
Hockey fanatic
- Jul 10, 2011
- 9,742
- 8,540
1st obtained for Kane, 2015 (Roslovic, traded for 3rd)
1st obtained for Ladd, 2016 (Stanley)
1st obtained for Trouba, 2019 (Heinola)
1st obtained for Copp, 2022 (Lambert)
1st traded for Stastny, 2018 (Bokk)
1st traded for Hayes, 2019 (Traded back)
1st traded for Monahan, 2024 (Hage)
2nds received for Oduya, Copp and Dubois...Oduya trade led to Poolman, in a later round. Copp led to Salomonsson. Dubois, Frej
2nds landed the Jets Setoguchi (2014), Dillon (2022/2023), Nino (2024), Toffoli (2025)...not sure how the 2011 2nd was traded, but it was before his tenure. And to edit Frolik was a 3rd and a 5th, the 2nd lost in 2016 was correctly stated by another poster as the price of moving up to draft Stanley.
For a non playoff team 5 of first 6 seasons, Chevy used secondary capital to improve, or not, until the Kane trade added prospects, picks, and players. Chevy's only used late 1sts and b prospects in deadline deals in the years when the Jets had a chance. Other than trading back in 2017 to protect Enstrom in the xD. No one will ever regret the Stastny trade, but Hayes and Monahan did not provide playoff results...
Seems like Chevy has the green light to make moves to improve the team for a playoff run, which really is keeping up with competitors. But he's also in Winnipeg with a narrow runway to work with. The fact he's only missed on one first, while the Bruins missed more in one draft, and other GMs too have missed more often, is probably why the man still has his job.
Last edited:
The Thrashers/Jets 2011 2nd was sent to Chicago for Ladd. (Chicago used that 36th overall pick on Adam Clendening who played 90 games in the NHL).
- Mar 10, 2010
- 35,240
- 32,522
I have always been a draft Hawk and TD rental DOVE (all caps for a reason). The way I rest better at night is knowing historically the Jets tend to both be buyers and sellers at the deadline situationally and it has created a balanced effect for in and out for first round capital.
I am hoping the drop in demand doesn’t alter that approach. Selling off a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th this past season was a bit too much IMO. I understand why we did it at this snap shot in time but we need to be more surgical.
@Sweech sadly the Jets are no longer a draft and develop team, we are in more of a win now to sell tickets now stage that may last forever. Doesn’t mean we have abandoned drafting but I’m keeping my eye on it. As I have drummed on and on about what we need is an unintentionally bad season and or a stroke of luck on draft day (where we can add a franchise #1 centre).
I 100% agree with you when you say (for better or worse) we will live and die by the draft in Winnipeg. Our core comes from the draft, or top drafted players we traded. In Winnipeg that is the only way to the top if we wanna Rock and Roll (legit contender). Once our core is there we can augment by leveraging draft capital (Dillon, DeMelo etc) but our core will always come through hitting at the draft (by skill and/or luck).
Last edited:
- Mar 10, 2010
- 35,240
- 32,522
Sweech
Oh When the Spurs
This is great work voyageur.
I just wished they would play to their strengths more and have a better long term view of things.
The fact is we still have largely the same core that is driving the team that we did several years ago shows the window isn't that small, but having more young talent pushing up and through would really help us.
What I'm saying is the whole idea of having a short window for cup success is largely false and that viewpoint has caused us to take short term actions for functionally little to no results. If Chevy had taken a view of using the team's ability to scout and maximized it by accruing picks I think that the team would not only be better now but it would be better in the future also.
We won't win through free agency and short term trade acquisitions. That's just a fact. We win through the draft - actively moving away from that will only ever be to the team's detriment.
Jetfaninflorida
Southernmost Jet Fan
1st round picks are obviously most important.
The concern for me is as follows:
Jets First 7 years since return to Winnipeg (2011-17 drafts):
Qty 9 - 1st round picks in 7 years
Qty 52 - total draft picks in 7 years
Jets Last 7 years since return to Winnipeg (2018 - 24 drafts):
Qty 6 - 1st round picks in 7 years
Qty 36 - total draft picks in 7 years
gojetsgo
Registered User
- Nov 1, 2015
- 10,773
- 29,895
we are trying to compete, we have holes in our line up that we can't fill in free agency so we must trade picks in order to do so, alot of those missing picks are late round picks with a very low% of even making it to the nhl
Jetfaninflorida
Southernmost Jet Fan
First 7 Years - 50% More First round picks than last 7 years
First 7 years - 44% More Draft picks than last 7 years.
I get your point, but don't minimize the significant reduction of draft picks, including first rounders, that we have had in the last 1/2 of Jets 2.0. We haven't been a true draft and develop team in a long while.
And for so much 'investment' in compete now at the expense of the future, we sure ain't winnin' much.
The Jets would've had just 5 first round picks in the last 7 years if they hadn't had to trade Trouba.
gojetsgo
Registered User
- Nov 1, 2015
- 10,773
- 29,895
I don't think I've disputed that we have had less draft picks in the past 7 years then the 1st 7... I just think people over estimate how much value we actually lost when trading those picks
picks traded:
4th, 7th, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 6th, 2nd, 2nd, 6th, 4th,1st,7th
NHL Draft Pick Probabilities
Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to
dobberprospects.com
now if you add up all the % of those picks going by that chart you would expect to have just under 2 nhlers play >99 games without taking in account the actual quality of said players
even ignoring our rentals we I think we came away with more value overall
demelo (295 games) + 4 years
stastny (127 games)
dillon(238 games)
schmidt(211 games)
appleton(142 games) +1 year
niederreiter (99 games) + 3 years
namestnikov (98 games) +1 year
miller(remains to be seen)
yes, we haven't been a draft and develop team because we went into win now mode, you cannot build an entire team thru the draft, so we had to fill the holes we had with draft picks, overall I think we ended up coming out with more value then lost
Jetfaninflorida
Southernmost Jet Fan
I don't think I've disputed that we have had less draft picks in the past 7 years then the 1st 7... I just think people over estimate how much value we actually lost when trading those picks
picks traded:
4th, 7th, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 6th, 2nd, 2nd, 6th, 4th,1st,7th
NHL Draft Pick Probabilities
Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided todobberprospects.com
now if you add up all the % of those picks going by that chart you would expect to have just under 2 nhlers play >99 games without taking in account the actual quality of said players
even ignoring our rentals we I think we came away with more value overall
demelo (295 games) + 4 years
stastny (127 games)
dillon(238 games)
schmidt(211 games)
appleton(142 games) +1 year
niederreiter (99 games) + 3 years
namestnikov (98 games) +1 year
miller(remains to be seen)
yes, we haven't been a draft and develop team because we went into win now mode, you cannot build an entire team thru the draft, so we had to fill the holes we had with draft picks, overall I think we ended up coming out with more value then lost
You would hope that our 'win now' mode would have actually resulted in more measurable success. Other than Stastny, we really made a strong case for 'don't be a buyer at the trade deadline'.
Sweech
Oh When the Spurs
Other than Demelo that list genuinely isn't that impressive.I don't think I've disputed that we have had less draft picks in the past 7 years then the 1st 7... I just think people over estimate how much value we actually lost when trading those picks
picks traded:
4th, 7th, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 6th, 2nd, 2nd, 6th, 4th,1st,7th
NHL Draft Pick Probabilities
Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided todobberprospects.com
now if you add up all the % of those picks going by that chart you would expect to have just under 2 nhlers play >99 games without taking in account the actual quality of said players
even ignoring our rentals we I think we came away with more value overall
demelo (295 games) + 4 years
stastny (127 games)
dillon(238 games)
schmidt(211 games)
appleton(142 games) +1 year
niederreiter (99 games) + 3 years
namestnikov (98 games) +1 year
miller(remains to be seen)
yes, we haven't been a draft and develop team because we went into win now mode, you cannot build an entire team thru the draft, so we had to fill the holes we had with draft picks, overall I think we ended up coming out with more value then lost
Considering the team's general success with 1st rounders you'd think people would want more of them and not less.
I'm also not that interested in aggregate %'s for draft picks. It implies everyone scouts and develops at the same rate - they don't.
gojetsgo
Registered User
- Nov 1, 2015
- 10,773
- 29,895
if you are expecting any of those draft picks to turn into more then those type of players then idk what to tell you...
we've had great success with early 1sts, I'm not so sure you can say the same about later 1st rounders as of right now
do you think the jets scout/develop at a much higher rate then other teams? even if the jets did scout/develop better then average, I don't think it would actually change the value of those picks all that much
- Jun 10, 2014
- 58,103
- 30,041
We need to also consider the position of the picks we traded. In more recent years we have traded away later 1st rd picks with a much lower probability of being impact players. Then also consider the longer terms we have gotten with picks after the first that were traded away.
I think the case that was made was to look for higher value, lower cost players who could be acquired with later picks.
I totally agree we are a draft and develop team but when we got the Jets from Atlanta that franchise had nothing for young players and picks in the cupboards . We weren't very good and got some higher picks and didn't trade them we drafted some very good players . Back then both Chevy and Chipman said we would be that way until we got to be a good team then we would take some chances and add players which is exactly what they have been doing. You aren't going to be able to have a great team solely through the draft especially in Winnipeg because some of those picks once developed and if they become good will want too much money to all fit under the cap or will want a trade. If some people had their way we would never trade a pick and would ultimately be developing players for other teams because we wouldn't be able to keep them all. Chevy and the Jets aren't perfect but it's only been 13 years since we got this team and for the most part i think we have done a good job at being a competitive hockey team.
- Mar 10, 2010
- 35,240
- 32,522
It’s an interesting debate.
Qualifier: I am aware the Jets have historically bought and sold at the TD and have roughly a balanced amount of 1st round picks over our 13 year history.
How to use draft capital (ps’s Winnipeg view)
I do like some use of draft capital to augment the roster of a competitive team. Once you spend capital for a Dillon, or DeMelo they are sure things for the length you own them if they have term. That is a nice way to augment a core. Now most teams are able to add this level of asset through “Free agency” so having to expend draft capital is a bit of a Winnipeg Tax. I think that is an important reality to keep in mind as we look at draft capital as an asset class.
Draft picks used to draft players have a variety of effectiveness but you have to have a ticket to win. There are all sorts of cases of teams hitting on picks including Winnipeg where our most important asset was taken in the 5th round. More importantly we have built our core with 1st round picks although we are less effective with late 1st round picks.
My challenge is with pure rentals to “go for it” to win a cup. I think by the odds that is the poorest use of draft capital. On April 25th 2024 the Winnipeg Jets were given a 3% chance by the athletic to Win the Stanley cup heading into the playoffs. How much did Monahan and Toffoli move the % needle of winning the cup? Might it have been .1 or .2%? Yes almost all playoff teams use rentals but Florida didn’t use 1st or 2nd round draft capital at the deadline to help them this year and they won the cup? They used their 3rd and 4th round pick to get Tank. Only one team wins the cup so 15 others waist assets on rentals every year if they rent. I get it all teams play the game at the deadline but…….
When we are in Winnipeg where it’s harder to attract free agents I think we need discipline on being a bit more restrained at the TD. We had a good enough team to get to 1st overall at one point in the season so did they really need allot of help at the TD and how much difference does it really make? Those same assets could have been used within trades to improve our team allot. If we were heading into the draft how far could we have moved up if we were offering McGroarty plus our 2024 2nd round pick? How about McGroarty plus our 2024 1st round pick had we kept him. There is a better than 3% chance that might have led to a franchise altering asset.
At the TD as long as we can get some term then no problem, that is more of a hockey trade. We can use that asset for more than just the playoff run but just throwing them away to try to enhance 3% odds doesn’t make much sense to me as I sit alone on my island.
ITS ABOUT THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF THOSE ASSETS TO BE USED IN SMARTER WAYS TO BUILD THE ROSTER OF THE FUTURE.
All teams rent at the deadline, I get it. Doesn’t mean it’s smart for Winnipeg and especially not a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th for one attempt vs using that same 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th to build a better team to make multiple attempts.
TLDR Summary of my view. I think the Winnipeg way especially with 1st or 2nd round capital should be draft…… trade…….or rental with term.
- Jun 10, 2014
- 58,103
- 30,041
Ultimately all players come through the draft with only very rare exceptions. So it should be possible to build your team exclusively through the draft. At least in theory.
You look at any top contending team and they are having cap issues. Drafted players coming up are the best way of easing the cap pressure.
Even if all of your players want to leave, you have them through their 27 YO seasons. That usually includes their best seasons, or at least their best bang for the buck seasons. And ALL of your players wanting out as soon as they are eligible is a bit extreme.
I think it is obvious that a flexible approach is better. Especially if you stick to drafting BPA, you will not end up with a balanced team. You want to trade from positions of surplus to fill positions of deficit. But Jets have had a couple of holes in particular for several years that they have not been able to successfully fill via trade. It appears to be easier said than done.
I think a model based on finding inefficiencies in the SOP's of the rest of the teams is best for a disadvantaged team like Wpg. Try to sign top young players to contracts that will have them reaching UFA at 28-30 YO. Then trade most of them for futures before they sign their big payday contracts that take them to retirement. Don't be afraid to be both a buyer and a seller at the trade deadline. Avoid the big name rentals. Go for value rentals like Names, Nino and DeMelo. Take a similar approach to FA Frenzy. Look for value. Avoid the big names who get overpaid. Use some of those trade returns to move up in the draft, since your competitive team won't often be getting high picks. Spend quantity for quality.
This is something of me beating a dead horse (maybe I'm just hangry right now) so many may want to ignore this post, but I don't think the "win-now" is what was required to sell tickets. Perhaps it is now, but the reason people were dropping their season tickets has almost nothing to do with team performance. I have yet to meet a single person (obviously there are vastly more STH that I've never spoken to than I have so the representative sample size is small) who has stated something along the lines of "team performance isn't what I was hoping for so I'm not going to be a STH any longer".
I will grant the economic considerations post-Covid to the Jets, as I would any other franchise as a reason to bleed STH. That is a very valid reason for the loss of a number of fans paying for tickets.
But the primary reasons I hear from the STH that have left is because TNSE treated them with indifference at best, hostility at worst. TNSE placed little to no value on the STH in the first half dozen years as nothing but a cash cow and they could get away with it due to demand.
After the demand died down and the cracks started showing, TNSE didn't alter their behavior. They continued to consider any STH as "lucky" to be in the building, even if the experience wasn't up to the individual STH's expectations. Based on my interaction with ticket reps to change from full to half season that hasn't changed even now. Ignoring that I'm on my 4th ticket rep in the past ten months (there are only 3 ticket reps for regular STH at any given time so being on my 4th means that 3 others have either moved up in the organization or left it altogether - I've never had the same ticket rep from season to season), my previous 13 seasons as a full ticket holder counted for nothing. They removed me from my seats due to "high demand" and it took several conversations just to remain in the same section. That section, 103, has very few STH as it is where they do a lot of the promotional seating (also a couple of rows in 104).
And let's be clear, I'm not talking about unreasonable demands that ticket reps had to hear of with regularity. I'm talking about basic services and being treated with respect as a STH. Most probably remember the stories I've told here several times, some situations being what I'd consider particularly egregious situations, some less, but quality of service is very, very low. The STH rep position is an entry level position and the level of service is highly variable, often poor, rarely great. Were this the restaurant industry I wouldn't darken TNSE's door ever again based on the occurrences I've been subject to, let alone others.
But I'm a sucker for NHL hockey and want the Jets to survive so I've tried to do my part (insert abusive relationship analogy here and you wouldn't be wrong). We're down to a half season and I've told my group I'm done regardless of whether the Jets win the cup or finish dead last. I'll still attend games every now and then, but rather than being the sap paying STH price, I'll be the guy getting tickets at 35% off face value with a beer and a hot dog as throw ins.
TNSE is hurting for STH because they burned bridges with so very many people that had the disposable income, interest and opportunity to attend games. They aren't coming back. Winnipeg/Manitoba is a very small market. Driving away not insubstantial numbers of people was really, really poor business. And I remain unconvinced they've learned anything other than they needed to admit they maybe handled things poorly. The admission didn't lead to change as far as I can tell. I wish them the best in getting more corporate sponsors/STH.
1st rounders success is heavily driven when they were not a PO team, so picks 15th under. So you'd have to stink for a year to get them unless they trade. And top - 10 picks aren't often dealt.
If you're not interested in league wide rates, look at the team's individual ones then. Take a peak of how many picks the Jets have had in each round 2-7 from 2011 onward and what each of the player has become and how long it got them to reach that. It really isn't super impressive in totality.
Last edited:
Yeah I agree....this franchise would have more breathing room to go through some down/rebuilding seasons if TNSE hadn't turned off so many of its best customers already.
Now they can't afford to have down seasons because they can't even fill the arena with a playoff team.
- Mar 10, 2010
- 35,240
- 32,522
Great post and I wish Mark could read it. I would like to nail it to his forehead. I remain convinced he doesn’t really get “it”. He seemed to say all the right things on his second attempt but they keep leaking oil.
I'm not a season ticket holder but from what I've read from you and others on here that was a major mistake on True North's part, you should never take anything or anyone for granted and that's what it sounds like they did. Season tickets are very expensive and i really hope True North change their ways for the season ticket holder and the team's sake.
- Status
Ad
Latest posts
-
-
-
-
Useless Thread MDCCCXCVII: GOAT Novak Djokovic Appreciation Thread
- Latest: MetalheadPenguinsFan
-
