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OT: MLB Discussion Thread: Part XXV

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This topic has been fascinating me since the end of 2018.

Last 6 years the Mets average a 32 point difference in BABIP between Home and Road splits. They are literally dead last every year and usually by huge margins.
 
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Bob Richards said:


This topic has been fascinating me since the end of 2018.

Last 6 years the Mets average a 32 point difference in BABIP between Home and Road splits. They are literally dead last every year and usually by huge margins.
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How would this be "bigger than any acquisition" according to this guy? It affects both the Mets and the road team equally.

That said, it is weird.
 
ZuccsFluffierFluffer said:
I mean, that has an impact on both teams playing at Citi.
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SA16 said:
How would this be "bigger than any acquisition" according to this guy? It affects both the Mets and the road team equally.

That said, it is weird.
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Not sure on the SNY guy's part.

My post isn't a "it was the park this whole time!" eureka moment specifically for the Mets. Its just that I've read enough the past few months that Citi in general is where offense seemingly goes to die.
 
ZuccsFluffierFluffer said:
I mean, that has an impact on both teams playing at Citi.
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The Mets have recently had a lot of hitters that put the ball in the air, which makes them somewhat more susceptible to park factors. I would also think there's a psychological effect on guys who know that they're going home and they won't be able to hit worth a damn. In a one-game situation, it should affect both teams the same, but I think over 81 games it will have more of an effect on the home team.

Anyway, the biggest takeaway--from 2012-2018 the Mets are the only team in MLB with a better winning percentage on the road than at home. Seattle was close, no one else was close at all. So, either the Mets have built a ballpark that doesn't match the construction of the team or vice-versa, but to the same effect. Most of what I have read seems to suggest it's the wind patterns in the park.
 
nyr2k2 said:
The Mets have recently had a lot of hitters that put the ball in the air, which makes them somewhat more susceptible to park factors. I would also think there's a psychological effect on guys who know that they're going home and they won't be able to hit worth a damn. In a one-game situation, it should affect both teams the same, but I think over 81 games it will have more of an effect on the home team.

Anyway, the biggest takeaway--from 2012-2018 the Mets are the only team in MLB with a better winning percentage on the road than at home. Seattle was close, no one else was close at all. So, either the Mets have built a ballpark that doesn't match the construction of the team or vice-versa, but to the same effect. Most of what I have read seems to suggest it's the wind patterns in the park.
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Also sounds like it will be an interesting case study in engineering classes for a while.

We built a new ballpark next door to an old one, and the dimensions, location and other factors changed the way the ball plays.
 
nyr2k2 said:
The Mets have recently had a lot of hitters that put the ball in the air, which makes them somewhat more susceptible to park factors. I would also think there's a psychological effect on guys who know that they're going home and they won't be able to hit worth a damn. In a one-game situation, it should affect both teams the same, but I think over 81 games it will have more of an effect on the home team.

Anyway, the biggest takeaway--from 2012-2018 the Mets are the only team in MLB with a better winning percentage on the road than at home. Seattle was close, no one else was close at all. So, either the Mets have built a ballpark that doesn't match the construction of the team or vice-versa, but to the same effect. Most of what I have read seems to suggest it's the wind patterns in the park.
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Yeah, thats a case in which it could for sure be a factor.

Do you have numbers that display this? I'm not doubting you, just curious.
 
ZuccsFluffierFluffer said:
Yeah, thats a case in which it could for sure be a factor.

Do you have numbers that display this? I'm not doubting you, just curious.
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I don't have the numbers. It was just part of an article on this very thing from FanGraphs a few months ago.

There’s Definitely Something Strange About Citi Field | FanGraphs Baseball

That article also mentioned that Citi had a lower BABIP on liners and flies than any other park. Again, I don't have the numbers off-hand, but it makes sense when you consider that the Mets' offense has been almost entirely predicated on homers recently: three of their eight highest totals for team homers have been in the past four season (2015 is 8th, 2016 is 2nd, 2017 is 1st). Some of their leading hitters in this time have been guys like Duda (extreme fly ball rate), Cespedes (high FB rate), Bruce (high), Granderson (high), Conforto (moderate), and d'Arnaud (moderate). They only really had guys like Wright and Murphy who were more even in their LD/GB/FB rates (I'm also using FanGraphs' approximation where the average hitter hits ~35% fly balls; Duda was over 50%, the "high" guys were 45%, the moderate were 38%-40%).

I remember reading the article linked and thinking it was kind of funny, since I know a lot of Yankees fans were frustrated with the team's reliance on home runs. The Mets have been that way for a while (generally not as good at it, of course), but then reading that article made me wonder if maybe they were so reliant on home runs because even with the Citi park factor on fly balls, it was still the only way to produce consistent offense with the big decrease in BABIP across the board.

I wish they could get the park to play neutral, then let the pitching give them the edge.
 
ChiSox are legitimately in on both Harper and Machado, though it sounds like they're more in on Harper from what I've read. However if Harper goes elsewhere, maybe they make some crazy offer for Machado.
 
nyr2k2 said:
ChiSox are legitimately in on both Harper and Machado, though it sounds like they're more in on Harper from what I've read. However if Harper goes elsewhere, maybe they make some crazy offer for Machado.
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Heyman says they are a long-shot on Harper.
 
Thirty One said:
Heyman says they are a long-shot on Harper.
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Yeah I saw that, and honestly I'd expect them to be long-shots on both. But, the guy from the Sun-Times did say that the presentation the ChiSox made to Harper impressed him more than he was expecting.

Report: White Sox send offer to marquee free agent Manny Machado

Either way, I can't see Harper going there. Just saying, I could see them convincing themselves they're really in on him, and then if they strike out, going really hard after Machado. But who the hell knows at this point.
 
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I like the move for the Mets to get Broxton. I also like the stable of once-really-good relievers the Mets are bringing in on minor league deals. One or two work out and it's gold. I'm actually pretty impressed with the job BVW has done to this point.
 
Yeah Broxton is a solid get. The guy is very good defensively, good speed and has some pop in his bat.
 
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