Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[TMLBlueandWhite]

He keeps coming back to that because he knows that, while it's obviously true, it's not quantifiable.

The drop in shots games 5-7 vs 1-4 is your answer.

This would be caused by the mitigating factors that would be making the games harder to play. Things like hits, penalties, fights, board battles, dump-ins, distance of shot, icings can also all be measured and used as the conrol variables. All these are easily quantifiable and readily available.

Simply measuring the drop in shots is your answer but finding which of the underlying variables is responsible for how much a drop is a bigger task.

 

[francis246]

IF he is Leaf on July 2nd, it means he can't fetch anything of value in a trade.

Just a dumb take lol, you have all of July, August, hell even early September to move him.

No it doesn’t mean anything about value. Matthew Tkachuk I believe was traded mid July. I’d expect the same for Marner. This would be a a second week of July after everyone is back from vacation deal.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I agree, but what if we’re 5-1 in the next 6 series’ because we kept our potential hall of fame talent. It can go both ways.

It can always go "both ways" but as of right now, the only thing suggesting that we might to 5-1 with Marner is the old "anything's possible" line.

 

[francis246]

Do you think Marner was good in the playoffs this year? Last year?

I thought Marner was one of our best playoff performers last year. IMO Matthews was horrible against Florida. I know Marner had the one bad give away that ended up costing us the series essentially, but Matthews basically disappeared at least Marner was able to put up points against Florida and score in a tight game. Matthews did f*** all in that second round. He should be facing WAY more heat for his play in the second round.

This year Marner was by far the worst out of the four.

 

[francis246]

It can always go "both ways" but as of right now, the only thing suggesting that we might to 5-1 with Marner is the old "anything's possible" line.

Meh, not saying this is what I want, I think it’s time for change.

But I could hypothetically see a revamped d core that can also provide offense and move the puck in conjunction with our offense and adding a guy like Debrusk doing well. We need a point shot and we need it bad. I’m very interested how things will change when we start playing North/South. Adding better defenders who can shoot may change the whole look and be exactly what we need.


I could also see us moving Marner and adding the right pieces.

I could also see us moving Marner and still shitting the bed. I think there’s about an even probability of all options happening.

 

[Dayjobdave]

Marner at 11.7x8 is a reasonable deal, the team would remain Uber talented and cap challenged, and it will be up to the coach and management to get a better supporting cast and get more out of these guys.

Re signing Mitch does pretty much close the small percentage McDavid fantasy, so these are our horses boys, place your bets.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Best GIF EVER!

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

So hard to believe people are STILL trying to defend this guy.

His attitude is garbage. He stinks in the playoffs. He's grossly overpaid and expects even more.

But thanks for all the individual accomplishments Mitch.

There's nothing left TO defend. This is no longer defensible. It never should have been in the first place.

The only ones defending him now are his golfing buddies.

As season ticket holders they're not obligated to show up for the playoffs. Marner is. It must be so frustrating waiting for the first round to be over so they can go hit the links.

It's ok Mitch, go have fun with your golf buddies, you can make up for it by scoring a hundred points in the regular season next year.

#weloveMitch
#mitchisagoodhockeyplayerbecauseIplaygolfwithhim

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I don't feel confident in winning a Marner trade, most likely it would end in disaster. An 11.7x8 contract isn’t great. But it will look a lot better in a couple years with the cap rising.

LOL. "winning" a Marner "trade" is easily accomplished by the mere gain of your projected $11.7 million x 8 in cap space to spend on actual playoff performing assets.

Try again, paid "influencer".

I agree, but what if we’re 5-1 in the next 6 series’ because we kept our potential hall of fame talent. It can go both ways.

LOL. Nice attempt at spinning against ALL available evidence. So transparent.

 

[IPS]

I agree, but what if we’re 5-1 in the next 6 series’ because we kept our potential hall of fame talent. It can go both ways.

Don't think this is how basic logic works.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Marner at 11.7x8 is a reasonable deal, the team would remain Uber talented and cap challenged, and it will be up to the coach and management to get a better supporting cast and get more out of these guys.

Re signing Mitch does pretty much close the small percentage McDavid fantasy, so these are our horses boys, place your bets.

Another boring attempt at being an influencer. There's a salary cap (as you indicated above) yet you expect a "better supporting cast" to be cheap?

Dude....

 

[HamiltonNHL]

The anti-Marner

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804352605973307753

 

[57 Years No Cup]

The closer it gets to go time for a Marner trade, the more "influencers" there will be. I wonder how much Quartexx Management's Rocket Social Media Security contractor's budget will increase.

I'd LOVE to see those books.

 

[Nineteen67]

I thought Marner was one of our best playoff performers last year. IMO Matthews was horrible against Florida. I know Marner had the one bad give away that ended up costing us the series essentially, but Matthews basically disappeared at least Marner was able to put up points against Florida and score in a tight game. Matthews did f*** all in that second round. He should be facing WAY more heat for his play in the second round.

This year Marner was by far the worst out of the four.

Matthews is the face of the franchise and has lead them to failure.

 

[Racer88]

Marner at 11.7x8 is a reasonable deal, the team would remain Uber talented and cap challenged, and it will be up to the coach and management to get a better supporting cast and get more out of these guys.

Re signing Mitch does pretty much close the small percentage McDavid fantasy, so these are our horses boys, place your bets.

11.7 X 8 in my opinion is not reasonable. They have already shown they can’t get it done so why run it back for the 9th year

 

[Dayjobdave]

11.7 X 8 in my opinion is not reasonable. They have already shown they can’t get it done so why run it back for the 9th year

I’m not saying it’s a good idea. I’m just saying that’s a reasonable Mitch number.

I agree that it feels like we are doomed. You can hear the erie music, and we are telling Tre not to pick up the pen, but we already know he will…

 

[Gallagbi]

Not if you are making $10+m. You are not winning anything with mediocre $10+m players.

This may be a good time to note Campbell is still making $5m/year and Nurse is at 9.25M/year while playing less than Cody Ceci for an Oilers team that is 1 game away from the cup.


You want your stars to elevate and take over games. You want players to live up to their caphit and exceed them but some will likely fall short. Doesn't automatically means you're seasons done for many teams

 

[Racer88]

I’m not saying it’s a good idea. I’m just saying that’s a reasonable Mitch number.

I agree that it feels like we are doomed. You can hear the erie music, and we are telling Tre not to pick up the pen, but we already know he will…

Ya, I won’t be shocked if they sign him…….disappointed but not shocked

 

[stealth1]

Ya, I won’t be shocked if they sign him…….disappointed but not shocked

I wouldn't be disappointed as it's the ownerships MO. Entertaining the fans and making the playoffs each year is good enough.

 

[Gabriel426]

That’s not betting on yourself. Nylander bet on himself. If Marner remains unsigned through this season, that’s betting on himself.
Your last sentence makes no sense at all.
Every player knows the details of his contract. Why would this be any different?

Put it this way, if MM had a great playoffs, what is the chances he would be signing an extension before the season?
You are a much better poster than this.

no ones winning a cup with half their cap tied to four forwards, it amazes me that people still think this could actually happen.............

If those four are McD, Drai, Barkov and Mack.

They might.

 

[notbias]

The drop in shots games 5-7 vs 1-4 is your answer.

This would be caused by the mitigating factors that would be making the games harder to play. Things like hits, penalties, fights, board battles, dump-ins, distance of shot, icings can also all be measured and used as the conrol variables. All these are easily quantifiable and readily available.

Simply measuring the drop in shots is your answer but finding which of the underlying variables is responsible for how much a drop is a bigger task.

Are teams playing safer hockey or are the games harder?

Measuring only shots seems way too basic and there is no indication this means tougher games.

A lot of the other things you listed, I am not sure they mean they are tougher games either, but I wouldn't be surprised if game 1 led the way in a lot of the other stats there.

You can just use shots/gp to see which series is the toughest based on this logic.

Carolina likely is the toughest team to play against every series if you're using shots/gp.

 

[notbias]

He keeps coming back to that because he knows that, while it's obviously true, it's not quantifiable.

I apologize if "just trust me bro" is not a good argument.

I'm open to the idea that games 5-7 are harder to play, I just want to know how much harder.

I believe 3/4 of our players do better in games 5-7, so it seems weird that they are so much tougher but the majority of our core 4 perform better in those games than earlier games.

This begs the question, since games 1-4 are so much easier, why can't those players elevate their game during the early part of a series? It should be fairly easy.

 

[ToneDog]

This may be a good time to note Campbell is still making $5m/year and Nurse is at 9.25M/year while playing less than Cody Ceci for an Oilers team that is 1 game away from the cup.


You want your stars to elevate and take over games. You want players to live up to their caphit and exceed them but some will likely fall short. Doesn't automatically means you're seasons done for many teams

Nurse and Skinner have been better since game #3 but you are correct in general. It also helps if your depth players outperform their cap hits, as we are seeing from the Oilers depth players.

 

[ToneDog]

I agree, but what if we’re 5-1 in the next 6 series’ because we kept our potential hall of fame talent. It can go both ways.

History says different. Don't know about you but if it was my money, I would not be willing to pay $100m to find out.

I apologize if "just trust me bro" is not a good argument.

I'm open to the idea that games 5-7 are harder to play, I just want to know how much harder.

I believe 3/4 of our players do better in games 5-7, so it seems weird that they are so much tougher but the majority of our core 4 perform better in those games than earlier games.

This begs the question, since games 1-4 are so much easier, why can't those players elevate their game during the early part of a series? It should be fairly easy.

When you run a marathon, do you go all out from the start? As it stands, Florida looks like they are running out gas while the Oilers, especially McDavid, look fresh.

 

[notbias]

When you run a marathon, do you go all out from the start? As it stands, Florida looks like they are running out gas while the Oilers, especially McDavid, look fresh.

You don't run all out at mile 20 either.

Marathons also don't end halfway through if you're leading by a lot.

I understand the logic, but it is not a great analogy.