Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[Anthrax442]

Even if he contributes to 50% of matthews's goals, and you take him away, there would be someone else still feeding Matthews the puck. Last season it was Domi, they had a great chemistry. If Marner walks, its not like these points disappear. THere will be other players that will step in and do other things. Like if he would walk last offseason, Leafs could keep bertuzzi and sign another 5 mil player. or beef up the offer they had in for Roy.

 

[Da Mash]

IMHO if Marner walks at the end of the year I think one of the reasons would be because of Berube crappy system.
GM’s hand out NMC like candy it seems then get in a bind when the player won’t waive it. Then you have fans turn on that player who is just exercising his right.
Blame the GM. There was a window and he let it pass. Then he gives 34 and 88 a full NMC on their new contracts.

 

[kevsh]

So maybe Treliving should gauge how pissed off the team will be if the Leafs let Marner walk. If they'd be furious, let him go.

This team seems to play better when they're pissed. Conversely, they sure haven't won s**t when MLSE's done everything they can to make them happy, spoiled & coddled.

 

[Nineteen67]

IMHO if Marner walks at the end of the year I think one of the reasons would be because of Berube crappy system.
GM’s hand out NMC like candy it seems then get in a bind when the player won’t waive it. Then you have fans turn on that player who is just exercising his right.
Blame the GM. There was a window and he let it pass. Then he gives 34 and 88 a full NMC on their new contracts.

If he was allowed to trade Marner he had about a three week window. I’m sure the GM kicked himself after last spring‘s performance.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

It just doesn't make sense for Marner if he wants to be here if the Leafs offer both the money and term he wants to not sign mid season

 

[notDatsyuk]

Why didn't you do all points?

Nylander plays versus weaker competition.

Who is better defensively?

Again, cherry picking stat isn't how negotiations work, they look at the entire body of work, not just even strength points, but even here, Marner > Nylander.

Oh, the good old "plays versus weaker competition" trope.

Because of many factors, including home and away last change, coaching preferences, changing on the fly, icings, and even something as basic as there are four lines and only three pairs, 'weaker competition' isn't as simple as some posters want to believe.

Nylander also plays with a lower quality of linemates, which has been shown to be a more significant factor than quality of competition.

 

[666]

You’re still avoiding the original point. We already established that Marner contributed 41% of Matthews’ goals in 2023-24, higher than any other Leaf, and among the league leaders. That’s not ‘riding coattails,’ that’s contributing significantly. But sure, keep changing the argument and cherry-picking stats if it makes you feel better…

You’ve moved the goalposts so many times that I’m not even sure you remember your original point. Everyone can see it. I’m good, brother.

*someone yesterday said they wouldn’t be surprised if your account is some AI bot, I am starting to believe that haha. The responses are not making sense, lack a sense of personality, very stats driven and ordered points.

The latest misinformation is the same old routine of small samples of basic stats.
Here is the reality
2023-24 5v5
Matthews with Marner GF% 60.56
Matthews GF% without Marner 54.05
Marner GF% without Matthews 52.63

Matthews with Nylander GF% 53.13
Matthews GF% without Nylander 62.75
Nylander GF% without Matthews 47.56

Note: All of these numbers AND ANY OTHERS for that season except Matthews' time WITH Marner are small sample sizes because he plays 70% of his time with Marner.

All of the Domi nonsense is based on less than 200 minutes of data which is WAY too small of a sample. Domi assisted on 5 of Matthews goals in 2024 and Marner assisted on 33.

The 30% of time where Matthews doesn't play with Marner which is always a small sample is often used to produce misleading /60 stats. The right way to do it is to use about three years of full seasons of data so that the hot streaks and cold steaks and injuries etc get averaged out.



We only have two top right wingers so the only reasonable comparison is to compare the results with Nylander and Marner. But that doesn't happen with some people.

 

[arso40]

The latest misinformation is the same old routine of small samples of basic stats.
Here is the reality
2023-24 5v5
Matthews with Marner GF% 60.56
Matthews GF% without Marner 54.05
Marner GF% without Matthews 52.63

Matthews with Nylander GF% 53.13
Matthews GF% without Nylander 62.75
Nylander GF% without Matthews 47.56

Note: All of these numbers AND ANY OTHERS for that season except Matthews' time WITH Marner are small sample sizes because he plays 70% of his time with Marner.

All of the Domi nonsense is based on less than 200 minutes of data which is WAY too small of a sample. Domi assisted on 5 of Matthews goals in 2024 and Marner assisted on 33.

The 30% of time where Matthews doesn't play with Marner which is always a small sample is often used to produce misleading /60 stats. The right way to do it is to use about three years of full seasons of data so that the hot streaks and cold steaks and injuries etc get averaged out.



We only have two top right wingers so the only reasonable comparison is to compare the results with Nylander and Marner. But that doesn't happen with some people.

So if he plays 70% with marner is it just hard yo really gauge his impact with any other players cause of the sample size? the other 30% is split between domi and nylander correct? I’m just trying to understand all these charts cause both sides are criticizing the other for misinformation

 

[ToneDog]

So maybe Treliving should gauge how pissed off the team will be if the Leafs let Marner walk. If they'd be furious, let him go.

This team seems to play better when they're pissed. Conversely, they sure haven't won s**t when MLSE's done everything they can to make them happy, spoiled & coddled.

They looked more like a Berube coached team in the one game Marner missed. I'll bet nobody blinks an eye if he leaves. Afterall, it is a business.

 

[ToneDog]

It just doesn't make sense for Marner if he wants to be here if the Leafs offer both the money and term he wants to not sign mid season

He knows he will be ripped to shreds if he signs for $13+m now and then shits the bed in the playoffs. He wants to be loved by the fan base and that comes with playoff success or taking a big discount IMO, which he is not willing to do. Let him take his soft perimeter game elsewhere.

 

[hullsy47]

It just doesn't make sense for Marner if he wants to be here if the Leafs offer both the money and term he wants to not sign mid season

Because he thinks hes better than crosby

 

[ToneDog]

Because he thinks hes better than crosby

If he is, it is between the two bluelines or in his imagination.

 

[ACC1224]

Because he thinks hes better than crosby

Isn’t he?

 

[666]

So if he plays 70% with marner is it just hard yo really gauge his impact with any other players cause of the sample size? the other 30% is split between domi and nylander correct? I’m just trying to understand all these charts cause both sides are criticizing the other for misinformation

No, we just need to use more data. Three full years is pretty good. The Domi stuff is just nonsense. The real comparison is with Nylander and also how they produce with our other top center JT. I have posted the data many times. The results are:
Matthews is great with everyone.
Marner is great with everyone.
Nylander only produces with Matthews and is terrible with JT.
No other right winger has even close to enough time with Matthews to draw any conclusions.

 

[arso40]

No, we just need to use more data. Three full years is pretty good. The Domi stuff is just nonsense. The real comparison is with Nylander and also how they produce with our other top center JT. I have posted the data many times. The results are:
Matthews is great with everyone.
Marner is great with everyone.
Nylander only produces with Matthews and is terrible with JT.
No other right winger has even close to enough time with Matthews to draw any conclusions.

You sound like you know what your talkin about but the eye test doesn’t match that both this year and last year nylanders Been better with jt but yes if we include more than the last two years I agree marner was a better fit with jt the eye test also shows me that marner is not great with everyone that’s why they had to put him with jt cause he was struggling with domi that’s why the numbers standing alone can be triccy cause we can see what works and what doesn’t

 

[thewave]

Even if he contributes to 50% of matthews's goals, and you take him away, there would be someone else still feeding Matthews the puck. Last season it was Domi, they had a great chemistry. If Marner walks, its not like these points disappear. THere will be other players that will step in and do other things. Like if he would walk last offseason, Leafs could keep bertuzzi and sign another 5 mil player. or beef up the offer they had in for Roy.

I have never seen a irreplaceable playmaker. I have seen irreplaceable Rocket Richard winners though. These Marnerites actually believe he is more important than the Rocket C. Lol

 

[Hellcat]

Is matthews more than a point a game player ? Is it possible that a seventy point winger with Matthews like a toffoli type allows us to be a better built team and 4 lines deep like Vegas?

Who? Simple question....

 

[arso40]

Who? Simple question....

Did you see what I wrote I gave you a name of a prototype that would fit with matthews who as a rookie was being compared to kopitar with a goal scoring prowess toffolis best years were with kopitar on the that’s 70 line with tanner pearson, matthews more than any other player on our team would benefit from a north south game Hes bigger and stronger than pretty much everyone he goes up against he needs a power forward winger on both sides he can drive his own line and as the player who’s paid the most he should

 

[Hellcat]

Look at the Avs, they are a better team now with Necas and Nelson(caphit the same as Rantanen) than with Rantanen and if you consider the cap for next year, since Rantanen signed for 12mil, Avs uses that 12mil on Necas and Coyle, which to me is also better than Rantanen. None of them is as good as Rantanen but it does make the Avs a better team.

The distinct difference is those players were signed to contracts before this year, before it was announced that the cap is going to skyrocket over the next 4 years.

Since we are not trading Marner for value, this proposed replacement will come through UFA? Any UFA you sign this summer will have a significantly higher cap hit to value than those two players, due to the previously mentioned rising cap hit.

To get Necas and Nelson, the Avs had to pay a steep price. Are you OK with that steep price?

Necas was acquired by trading a 100 point player, which 100 point player do you suggest we trade to replace Mitch?

Nelson was acquired for a dman that would be a 3rd line pair, so lets say Benoit, a prospect that projects to contribute like Cowan, a 1st and a 3rd both conditional.

Can we replace Mitch, yep, but it will hurt or we can keep Mitch and keep building the team with the expanding cap.

So again which players specifically can we target to make this team better AND what is the price to acquire those players?

 

[Hellcat]

Even if he contributes to 50% of matthews's goals, and you take him away, there would be someone else still feeding Matthews the puck. Last season it was Domi, they had a great chemistry. If Marner walks, its not like these points disappear. THere will be other players that will step in and do other things. Like if he would walk last offseason, Leafs could keep bertuzzi and sign another 5 mil player. or beef up the offer they had in for Roy.

Are you suggesting that you'd keep Bertuzzi over Marner?

 

[notbias]

Oh, the good old "plays versus weaker competition" trope.

Because of many factors, including home and away last change, coaching preferences, changing on the fly, icings, and even something as basic as there are four lines and only three pairs, 'weaker competition' isn't as simple as some posters want to believe.

Nylander also plays with a lower quality of linemates, which has been shown to be a more significant factor than quality of competition.

That's a lot of words to address a single point that is just one of many reasons Marner is better...

 

[Hellcat]

He knows he will be ripped to shreds if he signs for $13+m now and then shits the bed in the playoffs. He wants to be loved by the fan base and that comes with playoff success or taking a big discount IMO, which he is not willing to do. Let him take his soft perimeter game elsewhere.

He wants to be loved by the fan base? You sure about that?

 

[ToneDog]

He wants to be loved by the fan base? You sure about that?

No way of knowing for sure but I doubt he is happy with all the heat/blame he gets for the team's playoff short comings. Somebody closer to Marner (maybe Kypreos??) would know better.

 

[Anthrax442]

Are you suggesting that you'd keep Bertuzzi over Marner?

Not specifically what i said.

 

[arso40]

The distinct difference is those players were signed to contracts before this year, before it was announced that the cap is going to skyrocket over the next 4 years.

Since we are not trading Marner for value, this proposed replacement will come through UFA? Any UFA you sign this summer will have a significantly higher cap hit to value than those two players, due to the previously mentioned rising cap hit.

To get Necas and Nelson, the Avs had to pay a steep price. Are you OK with that steep price?

Necas was acquired by trading a 100 point player, which 100 point player do you suggest we trade to replace Mitch?

Nelson was acquired for a dman that would be a 3rd line pair, so lets say Benoit, a prospect that projects to contribute like Cowan, a 1st and a 3rd both conditional.

Can we replace Mitch, yep, but it will hurt or we can keep Mitch and keep building the team with the expanding cap.

So again which players specifically can we target to make this team better AND what is the price to acquire those players?

You make a really good point in terms of ufa price hike anyway I can agree with you there can you agree that Knies and matthews make 2/3rd of a great line ? Do you agree that a solid 2 way player on the right side would make that line still a great line? If not why? My theory is toffoli boeser that type of player prototype power forward right winger would make that line a bitch to play against not saying marner isnt great but on that line in my opinion Hes a luxury we don’t need him on that line and antro graph kinda displays that nylanders on your second line with bobby mac and probably jt at half his cap hit ideally we need to build a third line we can get rid of the players that don’t fit and acquire players we actually need get rid of rielly and I think we’re actually a better team getting rid of just rielly in my opinion makes us a better team but how much better are we with just rielly gone I’m not sure it’s enough marner unfortunately due to his contract expiring seems to be the odd man out if him and nylanders contract expired at the same time all things being equal nylander would probably be the odd man out credit to dumb ass for getting that extra year and not having the contracts expire the same time that’s about the only smart thing he did with our big three