Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[Gary Nylund]

That's nowhere near equal and you know that. Mack and Makar are 2 of the very best players on the planet and it'll dramatically outweigh any QoC concerns.

I'll confess I don't have any numbers. Just going purely off the fact that Makar-Toews being arguably the most dominant possession pairing in the league would have a dramatic effect on any forward they commonly play with. How well this could be statistically measured is completely up for debate.

A lot of data indeed - much like you'd need a lot of data to add to support your idea of Rantanen just being this product of Mack who can't do anything on his own just by the sheer differential numbers you've referenced with nothing else to go alongside it.

Seem obvious.

 

[IPS]

Seem obvious.

Apparently not to everyone.

 

[GoonieFace]

Nerd stats has completely ruined sports. Advanced stats is very hard to measure in hockey, too many variables. Baseball is fairly easy, it’s pitcher vs batter, with some minor impact from defence.

My stats say this team has done nothing in the playoffs with their two highest paid players leading the pack of turds.

 

[ZEBROA]

I doubt there is a way to definitively prove who benefits more. One thing that seems clear from this thread is that there are stats that make Marner look great, and there are stats that make him look not so good. There are some people who only acknowledge stats that suit their agenda and to them, everything else is fake news.

For me, the big picture truth is somewhere in the middle. Marner is very good for 86 games, then he drops off a cliff. When you go from a ~100 point player to a ~40 point player, that's a problem. You can look at all kinds of stats in an attempt to prove that those numbers are misleading, talk about defence, penalty killing and whatever else in a desperate attempt to show that it doesn't matter and who knows, repeat these things long enough and maybe some people even start to believe their own nonsense? But occam's razor would tell you that going from 100 to 40 as the games increase in importance is a problem, a big problem.

Every spring when we get eliminated, the Marnerites disappear for a few weeks. Then they start up again and by November the hype is at a fever pitch and we're bombarded by posts about how Marner's god's gift to hockey until spring, then Marner fades, the team loses, they disappear for a few weeks and the cycle starts over again. I've seen this movie too many times, it's like watching Groundhog Day. The last few years have done nothing to make me change my assessment of Marner, for that he needs to show that he can be effective after 86 games. He'll get another chance soon enough but until then, none of this statistical warfare means anything.

Fool me 8th times shame on you, fool me 9 times shame on me.

So this is the last time for me. Paydays ahead so i expect the best version ever and him one of the best among all players of all the teams in the playoffs. Not just leafs.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Regular season Marner is hard to replace. The 40 point player he becomes after 86 games, that's not hard to replace at all. If the end result is a team that's a worse during the regular season and better in the playoffs, I'd be very happy with that myself.

That's fine in theory, but worse could mean struggling to make the playoffs or even missing them.

Gonna be fascinating to watch the Marner-Leafs saga play out after the season.

 

[GoonieFace]

That's fine in theory, but worse could mean struggling to make the playoffs or even missing them.

Gonna be fascinating to watch the Marner-Leafs saga play out after the season.

There will be no saga, MLSE will be on their knees begging him to stay regardless of what happens in the playoffs.

 

[IPS]

Nerd stats has completely ruined sports. Advanced stats is very hard to measure in hockey, too many variables. Baseball is fairly easy, it’s pitcher vs batter, with some minor impact from defence.

My stats say this team has done nothing in the playoffs with their two highest paid players leading the pack of turds.

The nerd stats got old after losing to Columbus with the Zekes of the world proclaiming how incredible we played and we were cup-bound if we didn't run into Vezina level goaltending.

Years and years later and these narratives just never died. So many failures yet they're never afraid to come out and tell us just how amazing our core players played despite zero success and none of the stats (real stats with actual goals, not pretend expected shit) matching it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

That's fine in theory, but worse could mean struggling to make the playoffs or even missing them.

Gonna be fascinating to watch the Marner-Leafs saga play out after the season.

In theory, anything's always possible, but missing the playoffs seems highly unlikely.

 

[ToneDog]

There will be no saga, MLSE will be on their knees begging him to stay regardless of what happens in the playoffs.

IMO they part ways if they do not get to the ECF. The heat in the kitchen will be too hot for Marner's liking and the Leafs would look like fools if they resigned him, let alone overpaid him. Time to move off Marner and Rielly. Tavares will be resigned at a number that works for him and the team IMO.

 

[keonsbitterness]

In theory, anything's always possible, but missing the playoffs seems highly unlikely.

Question is whether the Leafs believe that.

 

[Antropovsky]

I support the crest and everything it stands for.

I don't support a bunch of pampered millionaire athletes who think they're above the team. That especially means Mitch Marner. Anybody still cheering for him is a fan of the player more than they are the Toronto Maple Leafs.

They've lost sight of the forest for the trees.

Probably because they don't care about winning a cup either. Losers with a loser mentality cheering for other losers losing. Then expecting the rest of us to do the same.

Prioritizing Marner like the team needs all the soft entitled players they can get.

There has simply been too much losing already. Marner walking to free agency would be the best thing that could ever happen. Replace him with a couple guys earning half as much who appreciate the whole being greater than the sum of the parts.

It's entirely possible to exchange quality for quantity and still improve as a team.

If Marner battled on the ice like he battles in contract talks....Leafs would have a couple cups.

 

[666]

That's nowhere near equal and you know that. Mack and Makar are 2 of the very best players on the planet and it'll dramatically outweigh any QoC concerns.

I'll confess I don't have any numbers. Just going purely off the fact that Makar-Toews being arguably the most dominant possession pairing in the league would have a dramatic effect on any forward they commonly play with. How well this could be statistically measured is completely up for debate.

A lot of data indeed - much like you'd need a lot of data to add to support your idea of Rantanen just being this product of Mack who can't do anything on his own just by the sheer differential numbers you've referenced with nothing else to go alongside it.

Turns out that Makar is a negative player without Mack too. Makar and Rantanen together are also negative but there's not enough easy to get to data to draw a conclusion. I don't think that you have any idea how great Mack is. His stats are a lot like Matthews and Marner. It doesn't matter who they play with the line performs, unlike Nylander.

With that being said, this season, my eyes say that Nylander and Tavares (in his contract year) are rocking so far. Not enough data yet but it's looking good. Those two sure know how to get it done when their contracts are up. Unlike Matthews and Marner where Marners doing his best to find other people to pass to but there has obviously been something wrong with Matthews and it's hurting Marner statistically but he's still playing great.

 

[ToneDog]

In theory, anything's always possible, but missing the playoffs seems highly unlikely.

Tanev, OEL, and Stolarz make a few hundred K less than Marner does today. With the right adds, this team could be better next year in games 83+. Sorry nobody cares that Mitch gets 4 PP/EN apples against Nashville, San Jose, Anaheim or Philly in a nothing game in March if he disappears in games 4-7 when it counts.

P.S. Tre should have traded for B Tanev at the deadline. Hopefully he signs him July 1.

 

[Gabriel426]

The question is who is this mythical creature that we could sign for $7.25m, that will replace Mitch's 90 to 99 points each year AND perform better in the playoffs? Freeing up cap space, different players does not = a better team, management needs to actually find that value contract.

So say Mitch signs in Boston for $12 mil, lets pretend you find a forward that generates as much offence as Mitch @ 7.5, that forward is probably not as well rounded as Mitch, otherwise why would he not sign somewhere for 12 mill too? So say he's a 90 point guy but has no clue how to play defence, you now need to go out and sign another forward for $4.5 mil or less to play the elite suppression game, just to equal what Mitch brings.

This fan fiction that if Mitch does not resign we can go out and sign multiple players that will be better than what Mitch, is, just that, fiction. Can anyone name some forwards that will replace Mitch for the same or less money that will produce as much as he does and play defence as well as he does?

If you read my post, you would see that using MM money for pair of Dmen like McCabe and Tanev over OEL and Beniot would more than likely cover the Defense side of things between MM and the top 6 forward.
I also stated that the top 6 forward will not be as good as MM.

I agree with you that an 7-8mil player won’t be as good as MM but rather will the team be better without MM and use that cap to spend on different players for the team to get better.

Look at the Avs, they are a better team now with Necas and Nelson(caphit the same as Rantanen) than with Rantanen and if you consider the cap for next year, since Rantanen signed for 12mil, Avs uses that 12mil on Necas and Coyle, which to me is also better than Rantanen. None of them is as good as Rantanen but it does make the Avs a better team.

 

[GoonieFace]

IMO they part ways if they do not get to the ECF. The heat in the kitchen will be too hot for Marner's liking and the Leafs would look like fools if they resigned him, let alone overpaid him. Time to move off Marner and Rielly. Tavares will be resigned at a number that works for him and the team IMO.

They only part ways if Marner decides to IMO

 

[Maple Leaf]

They only part ways if Marner decides to IMO

Leafs will re-sign marner marner is the money man but his friends and fama are here

 

[Gabriel426]

IMO they part ways if they do not get to the ECF. The heat in the kitchen will be too hot for Marner's liking and the Leafs would look like fools if they resigned him, let alone overpaid him. Time to move off Marner and Rielly. Tavares will be resigned at a number that works for him and the team IMO.

Totally agree with that but ECF needs to be competitive and not a short series like Panthers.

I do think JT will be resign as it will be a deferred deal that brings the cap down to 5mil or less. As the way Knies is playing he is eyeing that Johnston contract with the Stars.

Won’t be surprised to see Reilly traded unless he lights up the playoffs like he does every few years.

I used to think that Leafs won’t resign MM till playoffs but over the past months, I do think it is MM who doesn’t want to sign with the Leafs.

 

[francis246]

And what I find the most hilarious part of all is that all of Antropovsky's counterparts are guilty of precisely the same cherry picking he is. It's what makes this thread pretty well the only reason coming to HFboards nowadays.

I’m not sure who you think is cherry picking, but I do know people have done it to show how you can manipulate data just like Antro has as a counter/example to antro’s crazy ass posts. Not because they are trying to use cherry picked stats to justify an actual post. But maybe there’s someone you have in mind that does it and you see it and I’ve missed it in that context

 

[IPS]

Turns out that Makar is a negative player without Mack too. Makar and Rantanen together are also negative but there's not enough easy to get to data to draw a conclusion. I don't think that you have any idea how great Mack is. His stats are a lot like Matthews and Marner. It doesn't matter who they play with the line performs, unlike Nylander.

With that being said, this season, my eyes say that Nylander and Tavares (in his contract year) are rocking so far. Not enough data yet but it's looking good. Those two sure know how to get it done when their contracts are up. Unlike Matthews and Marner where Marners doing his best to find other people to pass to but there has obviously been something wrong with Matthews and it's hurting Marner statistically but he's still playing great.

Is that actually true? Very surprising, wouldn't have thought.

 

[francis246]

There will be no saga, MLSE will be on their knees begging him to stay regardless of what happens in the playoffs.

If they lose, he’s not resigning, so people will get what they want anyways. So don’t sweat it

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner a leader on this team...won't play in dirty areas, or get his nose dirty and always holds out until the offseason and other teams can offer him in order to try and get the highest contract. Instead of taking responsibility during trying times, he complains that media expectations of them is too high. He downplays series losses indicating he's satisfied with the team's play and that the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win.

Yep... thats the type of winning culture we should develop here. Perfect role model.

 

[arso40]

Marner a leader on this team...won't play in dirty areas, or get his nose dirty and always holds out until the offseason and other teams can offer him in order to try and get the highest contract. Instead of taking responsibility during trying times, he complains that media expectations of them is too high. He downplays series losses indicating he's satisfied with the team's play and that the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win.

Yep... thats the type of winning culture we should develop here. Perfect role model.

He started the greed train let’s see if Knies does to him what he did to Hyman

 

[MarMarSab3]

Is he gone yet? ......... Wishful thinking

 

[666]

Is that actually true? Very surprising, wouldn't have thought.

Yep, double checked GF% with Mack 62.50 GF% without Mack 47.92.
Toews is pretty good without Mack.

 

[francis246]

He started the greed train let’s see if Knies does to him what he did to Hyman

Bro did you become a leafs fan in 2022? No one did anything to Hyman. Hyman left for two reasons, 1. the leafs were not willing to give him an 8 year deal because he was coming off back to back ACL tears. And they didn’t want to give him about $500,000 more to secure the deal, the organization was very concerned the deal would age horrible. Marner and Matthews didn’t do anything to Hyman.