Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[francis246]

You dismantled nothing im a behave before I get banned from this site but you don’t want that buddy

Forgot, the convo was over your head! Complex convos not your forte…

In simple terms, Antro made a bold claim that Marner isn’t that effective 5 on 5 with Matthews. As if 41% assist rate on Matthews 5 on 5 goals was dog water.

After doing a little bit of research I found out 41% is pretty high and it’s higher than Kucherov assisting on Brayden Points 5 on 5 goals (though there was one season Kucherov had a 42%) and surprisingly slightly higher than Draisaitl assisting on McDavid’s 5 on 5 goals. So the statement is false.

More importantly, if I was wrong, he’d have no issues refuting my claim and telling me I’m wrong.. but he hasn’t for good reason.

 

[arso40]

Forgot, the convo was over your head! Complex convos not your forte…

In simple terms, Antro made a bold claim that Marner isn’t that effective 5 on 5 with Matthews. As if 41% assist rate 5 on 5 was dog water.

After doing a little bit of research I found out 41% is pretty high and it’s higher than Kucherov assisting on Brayden Points 5 on 5 goals and surprisingly slightly higher than Draisaitl assisting on McDavid’s 5 on 5 goals. So the statement is false.

I read all a dat I wasn’t even talking about you but as usual your leading the charge if you were paying attention to the debate me and my friend nineteen were having you’ll realize why I said what I said about the video but your just gunning for everyone eh bout J strap wrong guy buddy

 

[ZEBROA]

If u are paid 4mill more like Marner has been there should not even be room for a debate. I think both Marner and Nylander is paid to much. If Marner want to be a god , he should take Nylander money. Then almost all the weight will land on Nylander and Matthews. Or just show the world this year he can handle the pressure.

 

[arso40]

If u are paid 4mill more like Marner has been there should not even be room for a debate. I think both Marner and Nylander is paid to much. If Marner want to be a god , he should take Nylander money. Then almost all the weight will land on Nylander and Matthews. Or just show the world this year he can handle the pressure.

I hope marner handles it better than last year I pray about it even

 

[nsleaf]

Arsopovsky?

 

[Leaf Fans]

He was poor in game 4.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I support the crest and everything it stands for.

I don't support a bunch of pampered millionaire athletes who think they're above the team. That especially means Mitch Marner. Anybody still cheering for him is a fan of the player more than they are the Toronto Maple Leafs.

They've lost sight of the forest for the trees.

Probably because they don't care about winning a cup either. Losers with a loser mentality cheering for other losers losing. Then expecting the rest of us to do the same.

Prioritizing Marner like the team needs all the soft entitled players they can get.

There has simply been too much losing already. Marner walking to free agency would be the best thing that could ever happen. Replace him with a couple guys earning half as much who appreciate the whole being greater than the sum of the parts.

It's entirely possible to exchange quality for quantity and still improve as a team.

 

[666]

I guess me and the entire community of hockey analysts are disingenuous? I specifically like the part on the bottom of the quote where I reads "Further, we specify 5v5 as opposed to all even strength play in order to strip away empty net goals and situations where both teams are a man down, which can pad a player’s statistics."

It's disingenuous because you purposely left out 13 goals scored to make the numbers look smaller. It still turns out that Marner assists on 41% of the 51 EV goal and 41% of the 38 5v5 goals but by listing the raw numbers and not the totals or percentages you try to make Marner look bad. How bout your whole Domi bullshit when he assisted on a grand total of 5 Matthews goals. You're a disingenuous fool.

 

[ACC1224]

It's disingenuous because you purposely left out 13 goals scored to make the numbers look smaller. It still turns out that Marner assists on 41% of the 51 EV goal and 41% of the 38 5v5 goals but by listing the raw numbers and not the totals or percentages you try to make Marner look bad. How bout your whole Domi bullshit when he assisted on a grand total of 5 Matthews goals. You're a disingenuous fool.

No idea why people would want to make things up, seems so weird.
Kudos to you and @francis246 for calling it out and doing the work to provide the proof.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Let's say he is effective with Matthews 5v5.

Who do you think benefits more from that line combination - Matthews or Marner?

I find it ironic people here kept saying Rantanen was a product of MacKinnon but can't accept that Marner might be a product of Matthews.

I doubt there is a way to definitively prove who benefits more. One thing that seems clear from this thread is that there are stats that make Marner look great, and there are stats that make him look not so good. There are some people who only acknowledge stats that suit their agenda and to them, everything else is fake news.

For me, the big picture truth is somewhere in the middle. Marner is very good for 86 games, then he drops off a cliff. When you go from a ~100 point player to a ~40 point player, that's a problem. You can look at all kinds of stats in an attempt to prove that those numbers are misleading, talk about defence, penalty killing and whatever else in a desperate attempt to show that it doesn't matter and who knows, repeat these things long enough and maybe some people even start to believe their own nonsense? But occam's razor would tell you that going from 100 to 40 as the games increase in importance is a problem, a big problem.

Every spring when we get eliminated, the Marnerites disappear for a few weeks. Then they start up again and by November the hype is at a fever pitch and we're bombarded by posts about how Marner's god's gift to hockey until spring, then Marner fades, the team loses, they disappear for a few weeks and the cycle starts over again. I've seen this movie too many times, it's like watching Groundhog Day. The last few years have done nothing to make me change my assessment of Marner, for that he needs to show that he can be effective after 86 games. He'll get another chance soon enough but until then, none of this statistical warfare means anything.

 

[Nineteen67]

I support the crest and everything it stands for.

I don't support a bunch of pampered millionaire athletes who think they're above the team. That especially means Mitch Marner. Anybody still cheering for him is a fan of the player more than they are the Toronto Maple Leafs.

They've lost sight of the forest for the trees.

Probably because they don't care about winning a cup either. Losers with a loser mentality cheering for other losers losing. Then expecting the rest of us to do the same.

Prioritizing Marner like the team needs all the soft entitled players they can get.

There has simply been too much losing already. Marner walking to free agency would be the best thing that could ever happen. Replace him with a couple guys earning half as much who appreciate the whole being greater than the sum of the parts.

It's entirely possible to exchange quality for quantity and still improve as a team.

If they Exchange quality for different quality it will improve the team.

 

[IPS]

Defenceman are linemates therefore adding them would help but then you need a lot more data as I said. Think / read man. Of course we don't have a complete model that's why we use as much data as is reasonable and do the best with what we have. We're not talking just "better" goal differentials were talking 60%-42%, even Nylander isn't that bad. If you can't understand this extreme difference then by all means show us something better. I 100% guarantee that you won't.

The point I'm trying to make is that whoever is on the ice the most with Makar-Toews is likely to have the biggest benefit on GF/GA because that's the most dominant possession pairing in the entire league. The #1 pairing often plays with the #1 line, so Mack by nature is going to play with them the most, and Mack's line mates as well.

The massive discrepency only serves to further my point. You honest to god think a winger's defence is gonna make that big of a swing in goal differential? You really, really can't wrap your head around the fact that people don't value defense from wingers the way you do eh? On all the major network's lists where they rank Rantanen ahead of Marner - they all acknowledge Marner is better defensively, and they don't care.

Again don't let me get in the way of your massive quest to gaslight the board into thinking defense is equally as valuable as offense from wingers. This clearly is not an ideology that's shared by very many people, including the people who get paid to know hockey for a living.

 

[IPS]

Thank you for your donkey take. The point was posting cherry picked stats doesn’t prove anything. There’s a clear reason why Antroprovsky hasn’t responded since making his claim. He got caught red handed doing that shit

And what I find the most hilarious part of all is that all of Antropovsky's counterparts are guilty of precisely the same cherry picking he is. It's what makes this thread pretty well the only reason coming to HFboards nowadays.

 

[arso40]

I doubt there is a way to definitively prove who benefits more. One thing that seems clear from this thread is that there are stats that make Marner look great, and there are stats that make him look not so good. There are some people who only acknowledge stats that suit their agenda and to them, everything else is fake news.

For me, the big picture truth is somewhere in the middle. Marner is very good for 86 games, then he drops off a cliff. When you go from a ~100 point player to a ~40 point player, that's a problem. You can look at all kinds of stats in an attempt to prove that those numbers are misleading, talk about defence, penalty killing and whatever else in a desperate attempt to show that it doesn't matter and who knows, repeat these things long enough and maybe some people even start to believe their own nonsense? But occam's razor would tell you that going from 100 to 40 as the games increase in importance is a problem, a big problem.

Every spring when we get eliminated, the Marnerites disappear for a few weeks. Then they start up again and by November the hype is at a fever pitch and we're bombarded by posts about how Marner's god's gift to hockey until spring, then Marner fades, the team loses, they disappear for a few weeks and the cycle starts over again. I've seen this movie too many times, it's like watching Groundhog Day. The last few years have done nothing to make me change my assessment of Marner, for that he needs to show that he can be effective after 86 games. He'll get another chance soon enough but until then, none of this statistical warfare means anything.

Facts

 

[arso40]

And what I find the most hilarious part of all is that all of Antropovsky's counterparts are guilty of precisely the same cherry picking he is. It's what makes this thread pretty well the only reason coming to HFboards nowadays.

Exactly Hes the anti to their shenanigans

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

If they Exchange quality for different quality it will improve the team.

I'd be all for that too.

 

[Hellcat]

Not everyone will be Phil and Phil did played well in his only playoffs appearance with the Leafs.

This is just some Games Theory stuff.

We know that McCabe and Tanev are miles better than Benoit and OEL, as McCabe and Tanev are rocks in the backend and provide great defense.

Now does MM provide better defense coverage than McCabe and Tanev. The answer is no.

From a caphit standpoint, let’s say MM will sign at 12mil and Benoit and OEL are at 4.8mil combined, that’s 16.8mil. While McCabe and Tanev make 9.25mil.
Let’s imagine there are another pair of Dmen as good as McCabe and Tanev that costs 9.25mil. While a top 6 winger is willing to sign with the Leafs at 7.5mil.
Would the impact of MM, Benoit and OEL be more than another pairing like Tanev and McCabe with a 7.5mil top 6 winger.

That’s no right or wrong answers but it is something that MGT needs to consider

The question is who is this mythical creature that we could sign for $7.25m, that will replace Mitch's 90 to 99 points each year AND perform better in the playoffs? Freeing up cap space, different players does not = a better team, management needs to actually find that value contract.

So say Mitch signs in Boston for $12 mil, lets pretend you find a forward that generates as much offence as Mitch @ 7.5, that forward is probably not as well rounded as Mitch, otherwise why would he not sign somewhere for 12 mill too? So say he's a 90 point guy but has no clue how to play defence, you now need to go out and sign another forward for $4.5 mil or less to play the elite suppression game, just to equal what Mitch brings.

This fan fiction that if Mitch does not resign we can go out and sign multiple players that will be better than what Mitch, is, just that, fiction. Can anyone name some forwards that will replace Mitch for the same or less money that will produce as much as he does and play defence as well as he does?

 

[Hellcat]

And what I find the most hilarious part of all is that all of Antropovsky's counterparts are guilty of precisely the same cherry picking he is. It's what makes this thread pretty well the only reason coming to HFboards nowadays.

This quoted post has a distinct smell of a farm animals poo. Simply not true.

 

[Hellcat]

It's disingenuous because you purposely left out 13 goals scored to make the numbers look smaller. It still turns out that Marner assists on 41% of the 51 EV goal and 41% of the 38 5v5 goals but by listing the raw numbers and not the totals or percentages you try to make Marner look bad. How bout your whole Domi bullshit when he assisted on a grand total of 5 Matthews goals. You're a disingenuous fool.

 

[arso40]

The question is who is this mythical creature that we could sign for $7.25m, that will replace Mitch's 90 to 99 points each year AND perform better in the playoffs? Freeing up cap space, different players does not = a better team, management needs to actually find that value contract.

So say Mitch signs in Boston for $12 mil, lets pretend you find a forward that generates as much offence as Mitch @ 7.5, that forward is probably not as well rounded as Mitch, otherwise why would he not sign somewhere for 12 mill too? So say he's a 90 point guy but has no clue how to play defence, you now need to go out and sign another forward for $4.5 mil or less to play the elite suppression game, just to equal what Mitch brings.

This fan fiction that if Mitch does not resign we can go out and sign multiple players that will be better than what Mitch, is, just that, fiction. Can anyone name some forwards that will replace Mitch for the same or less money that will produce as much as he does and play defence as well as he does?

Is matthews more than a point a game player ? Is it possible that a seventy point winger with Matthews like a toffoli type allows us to be a better built team and 4 lines deep like Vegas?

 

[666]

The point I'm trying to make is that whoever is on the ice the most with Makar-Toews is likely to have the biggest benefit on GF/GA because that's the most dominant possession pairing in the entire league. The #1 pairing often plays with the #1 line, so Mack by nature is going to play with them the most, and Mack's line mates as well.

The massive discrepency only serves to further my point. You honest to god think a winger's defence is gonna make that big of a swing in goal differential? You really, really can't wrap your head around the fact that people don't value defense from wingers the way you do eh? On all the major network's lists where they rank Rantanen ahead of Marner - they all acknowledge Marner is better defensively, and they don't care.

Again don't let me get in the way of your massive quest to gaslight the board into thinking defense is equally as valuable as offense from wingers. This clearly is not an ideology that's shared by very many people, including the people who get paid to know hockey for a living.

Not playing with Makar and Mack also means not playing against the top opposition. Being extremely negative against the lesser opposition is the issue. Being close, no problem but this is extreme.

Instead of debating numbers with words why don't you just do the work and provide the numbers to counter. Let's see the data with adding Makar to it. Be warned you're going to need a lot of data. I look forward to seeing what you come up with. For the second time in a row, I 100% guarantee that you won't and you'll keep babbling.

 

[notbias]

Well Marner peaked at 99 points. Nylander peaked at 98 points. Marner has the better linemates. Marner’s stats looked better early in their career because they had Nylander on PP2 and Marner on PP1.

Marner's usually the second highest scoring player on his line. Nylander is usually the highest scoring player on his line.

Even-strength points over the last 3 seasons:

Auston Matthews: 173 points in 209GP
Mitch Marner: 166 points in 217GP
William Nylander: 163 points in 233GP
John Tavares: 130 points in 222GP

Enough of a sample size for you? Clearly Marner plays with the more productive player. Big drop off between Matthews and Tavares.

Why didn't you do all points?

Nylander plays versus weaker competition.

Who is better defensively?

Again, cherry picking stat isn't how negotiations work, they look at the entire body of work, not just even strength points, but even here, Marner > Nylander.

 

[arso40]

Why didn't you do all points?

Nylander plays versus weaker competition.

Who is better defensively?

Again, cherry picking stat isn't how negotiations work, they look at the entire body of work, not just even strength points, but even here, Marner > Nylander.

Your entitled to your opinion

 

[IPS]

Not playing with Makar and Mack also means not playing against the top opposition. Being extremely negative against the lesser opposition is the issue. Being close, no problem but this is extreme.

That's nowhere near equal and you know that. Mack and Makar are 2 of the very best players on the planet and it'll dramatically outweigh any QoC concerns.

Instead of debating numbers with words why don't you just do the work and provide the numbers to counter. Let's see the data with adding Makar to it. Be warned you're going to need a lot of data. I look forward to seeing what you come up with. For the second time in a row, I 100% guarantee that you won't and you'll keep babbling.

I'll confess I don't have any numbers. Just going purely off the fact that Makar-Toews being arguably the most dominant possession pairing in the league would have a dramatic effect on any forward they commonly play with. How well this could be statistically measured is completely up for debate.

A lot of data indeed - much like you'd need a lot of data to add to support your idea of Rantanen just being this product of Mack who can't do anything on his own just by the sheer differential numbers you've referenced with nothing else to go alongside it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The question is who is this mythical creature that we could sign for $7.25m, that will replace Mitch's 90 to 99 points each year AND perform better in the playoffs? Freeing up cap space, different players does not = a better team, management needs to actually find that value contract.

So say Mitch signs in Boston for $12 mil, lets pretend you find a forward that generates as much offence as Mitch @ 7.5, that forward is probably not as well rounded as Mitch, otherwise why would he not sign somewhere for 12 mill too? So say he's a 90 point guy but has no clue how to play defence, you now need to go out and sign another forward for $4.5 mil or less to play the elite suppression game, just to equal what Mitch brings.

This fan fiction that if Mitch does not resign we can go out and sign multiple players that will be better than what Mitch, is, just that, fiction. Can anyone name some forwards that will replace Mitch for the same or less money that will produce as much as he does and play defence as well as he does?

Regular season Marner is hard to replace. The 40 point player he becomes after 86 games, that's not hard to replace at all. If the end result is a team that's a worse during the regular season and better in the playoffs, I'd be very happy with that myself.