Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[666]

You keep mentioning quality of competition but you ignore quality of linemates. Tulsky actually said quality of linemates is more significant impact on a players production then QOC. If Tulsky says quality of linemates matters more than quality of competition....then why does someone as knowledgeable as you keep excluding it?

Are you still yammering about Domi? Here's what you do. Do a with/without between Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Domi. Then compare Mathews with Marner, to Matthews with Nylander to Matthews with Domi. I did it. It takes 10 seconds. Just go and get the data instead of whining.

 

[Divine]

He's basically having the exact same season as last year.

Last year: 69GP: 26G - 59A - 85P
This year: 67GP: 21G - 62A - 83P

I don't get how people are saying he stepped it up on his contract year. If anything, I think most would prefer his higher goalscoring last year.

The only difference is last year Matthews and Nylander both had better seasons which put Marner third in scoring. This year they've both regressed so far, leaving Marner first.

At least he's breaking the trend of Leafs having career years on their contract years.

Update:

Last year: 69GP: 26G - 59A - 85P
This year: 68GP: 21G - 62A - 83P

Yeah, I'm not buying all the Marner enthusiasts saying he really stepped up and is having a great year. If he finishes with less points than Nylander last year, which seems likely, especially if he's not on Matthews line - does he take the Nylander deal?

 

[IPS]

Hockey can't be measured. Well, maybe with some AI tools that aren't available to the public. Plus / minus and it's better cousin GF/60 and GA/60 can be very useful if used properly. Problem is very few people know how to use it.

People like points because points are a measure of the individual contribution to goals. The problem is that the average scoring play lasts 10 seconds and there are 6 goals per game so points only measures about 1 minute of a 60 minute game. How do we measure that other 98% of the game? Bedard is on a terrible team so comparing his points across teams would be dumb but a good example why points isn't great.

GF/GA measure the success of a line and not individuals but they are constantly changing. When using GF/GA you need A LOT of data to try and average out the context of different linemates, coaches and competition etc. Traditionally we do something like Marner with Matthews vs Nylander with Matthews over a few years. It's not much better than points but can give you a feel for how effective combinations are especially because it contains a defensive component.

That leads us to the "advanced" stats based on shots and shot attempts which has led to "expected" stats. They look at where every shot was taken from and whether or not it went in over many years and then use it to "value" todays shots. It's probably the best thing we have now as there is TON of data but it seems to confuse a lot of people around here for some reason so I avoid using them for this crowd.

We can only use the tools that we have but when used properly they do seem to do fairly well to confirm the eye test.

Here's an example:last 3 full seasons 5v5:
View attachment 997033

We know the context and we've got three years of data. Why is Rantanen a severely negative player when Mack isn't on his line but Mack is fine without him? Now this wouldn't mean much if Rantanen was at the team average of 53 but 42 is absurdly low. Something is very off here. Maybe we could dig deeper by adding more linemates but then we need a lot more data but it sure seems that he needs Mack to be productive but you be your own judge.

No, you don't get more accuracy by adding linemates. You'd get more accuracy by adding who plays with which D - mainly Makar - Toews (which would have far, far more impact on GA), and even then, you're still missing tons of variables that would need to be included as well.

Take the Blackhawks from 2009-2015, and you'll see that Hossa has better goal differential stats than Kane pretty well every single year, yet zero Blackhawks fans would ever agree Hossa was better despite being far better defensively than Kane (we're talking a Marner - Nylander gap, possibly even wider).

You berating others for not knowing how to use stats when you yourself are guilty of it is just gold.

 

[Smif]

Tavares with Marner vs with Nylander. See no reason to pay Marner more than Nylander. Tavares appears to be much better offensively with Nylander on his wing over Marner.

W/Marner:
G/60: 0.93
Points/60:2.32
Shots/60: 5.1
ixg/60: 0.53
Individual scoring chances per/60: 5.8
Individual high danger chances per/60:3.25
Pim/60: 3.25
Giveaways per/60: 3.48
Takeaways per/60: 1.16

W/Nylander:
G/60: 1.23,
Points/60:2.46
Shots/60:7.83
Igx/60:1.0
Individual scoring chances per/60: 9.23
Individual high danger chances per/60:4.92
Pim/60: 0
Giveaways per/60: 0.56
Takeaways per/60: 0.11

Honestly, I love your deep dives. My problem with you is that you withhold information so it fits your narrative. Post every single per/60 stat that there is and don't exclude some like you've done here. With you it's often what you don't post rather than what you do post that really matters.

Show the whole picture so we can accurately assess rather than what you want us to see.

 

[Smif]

Update:

Last year: 69GP: 26G - 59A - 85P
This year: 68GP: 21G - 62A - 83P

Yeah, I'm not buying all the Marner enthusiasts saying he really stepped up and is having a great year. If he finishes with less points than Nylander last year, which seems likely, especially if he's not on Matthews line - does he take the Nylander deal?

My problem with this assumption is that Matthews has been a shell of himself this year. Marner putting up similar numbers despite that is impressive. Matthews had 69 goals last year, he's his primary linemate, Marner should have a significant drop off in assists because of this, no?

 

[Divine]

My problem with this assumption is that Matthews has been a shell of himself this year. Marner putting up similar numbers despite that is impressive. Matthews had 69 goals last year, he's his primary linemate, Marner should have a significant drop off in assists because of this, no?

A shell of Matthews >>>>>>>> Tavares. So no.

The 'shell of Matthews' has more total points than Tavares in 8 less games. What does that say about who Nylander is constantly stuck with?

 

[Smif]

A shell of Matthews >>>>>>>> Tavares. So no.

That's silly to compare because Marner played with Matthews both seasons. You should expect a downward trend if your linemate has an off year. Pretty common sense imo.

 

[666]

No, you don't get more accuracy by adding linemates. You'd get more accuracy by adding who plays with which D - mainly Makar - Toews (which would have far, far more impact on GA), and even then, you're still missing tons of variables that would need to be included as well.

Take the Blackhawks from 2009-2015, and you'll see that Hossa has better goal differential stats than Kane pretty well every single year, yet zero Blackhawks fans would ever agree Hossa was better despite being far better defensively than Kane (we're talking a Marner - Nylander gap, possibly even wider).

You berating others for not knowing how to use stats when you yourself are guilty of it is just gold.

Defenceman are linemates therefore adding them would help but then you need a lot more data as I said. Think / read man. Of course we don't have a complete model that's why we use as much data as is reasonable and do the best with what we have. We're not talking just "better" goal differentials were talking 60%-42%, even Nylander isn't that bad. If you can't understand this extreme difference then by all means show us something better. I 100% guarantee that you won't.

 

[Divine]

That's silly to compare because Marner played with Matthews both seasons. You should expect a downward trend if your linemate has an off year. Pretty common sense imo.

So do you think Marner puts up more points on the second line or first line? Clearly Marner has a huge advantage getting to play with Matthews and Knies over Tavares & whatever 4th liner they squeeze in with Nylander that game.

You keep moving the goalposts. If we're looking at just his raw totals he's been declining in production for 4 years now.

2021-22	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	72	35	62	97
2022-23	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	80	30	69	99
2023-24	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	69	26	59	85
2024-25	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	68	21	62	83

 

[666]

So do you think Marner puts up more points on the second line or first line? Clearly Marner has a huge advantage getting to play with Matthews and Knies over Tavares & whatever 4th liner they squeeze in with Nylander that game.

You keep moving the goalposts. If we're looking at just his raw totals he's been declining in production for 4 years now.

Last three full seasons. 5v5

Marner produces just as well with Tavares as he does with Matthews, Nylander does not.

 

[Divine]

Last three full seasons. 5v5
View attachment 997067

Marner produces just as well with Tavares as he does with Matthews, Nylander does not.

What are you reading?

In that chart there's a clear drop-off in both Nylander and Marner in GF/60 when they play with Tavares instead of Matthews.

I don't see where that chart indicates Marner produces just as well with Tavares and Nylander has some sort of massive drop off. They both drop off when they play with Tavares, so clearly Nylander gets the short end of the stick here. If that was the case, the logical solution would be to put Nylander with Matthews and Marner on the second line - wouldn't it be?

 

[666]

What are you reading?

In that chart there's a clear drop-off in both Nylander and Marner in GF/60 when they play with Tavares instead of Matthews.

I don't see where that chart indicates Marner produces just as well with Tavares and Nylander has some sort of massive drop off. They both drop off when they play with Tavares, so clearly Nylander gets the short end of the stick here. If that was the case, the logical solution would be to put Nylander with Matthews and Marner on the second line - wouldn't it be?

That's why points just doesn't cut it. I'm looking at defensive production as well.

 

[Divine]

That's why points just doesn't cut it. I'm looking at defensive production as well.

Marner would be pouting on the bench if he had to play with Tavares and we both know it.

We took Matthews off his line for one game and Matthews looked great and Marner was invisible and I have no doubt Marner stormed Berube's office after the game as it's his contract year. They were back together the next game.

 

[666]

Marner would be pouting on the bench if he had to play with Tavares and we both know it.

We took Matthews off his line for one game and Matthews looked great and Marner was invisible and I have no doubt Marner stormed Berube's office after the game as it's his contract year.

We went from using some simple stats which seemed to change your mind to you bad mouthing Marner and making stuff up.

 

[notbias]

Everyone cares if they get close. If you listened to the radio, tv, podcasts, X, you name it, every person’s evaluation of the core is based around the fact they haven’t gotten close, like McDavid and Drai have, nor have they been the difference makers in a series.
It’s amazing you haven’t grasped that concept despite the fact it’s explained to you almost everyday.

Use Colorado as an example then, 1 time out of the 2nd round the whole time Mac has been there... Mac should have been traded.

It's amazing you haven't grasped that concept despite the fact it's been explained to you almost every day.

 

[Divine]

We went from using some simple stats which seemed to change your mind to you bad mouthing Marner and making stuff up.

Actually you started moving the goalposts quite a bit... so I joined in on the nonsense.

You claimed Marner's 'production' didn't drop off with Tavares yet Nylander's did. When I pointed out they both did - you started talking about their 'defensive production' - how was that reflected in the total points that the conversation was about?

Hint: It never was. It was meant to move the goalposts.

 

[notbias]

Update:

Last year: 69GP: 26G - 59A - 85P
This year: 68GP: 21G - 62A - 83P

Yeah, I'm not buying all the Marner enthusiasts saying he really stepped up and is having a great year. If he finishes with less points than Nylander last year, which seems likely, especially if he's not on Matthews line - does he take the Nylander deal?

Shockingly, contracts are not just signed based on points... especially points in a single year.

Defensively, Marner is better.

Marner has a bigger track record.

And as much as people don't like it... Marner has been better overall in the playoffs.

 

[Divine]

Shockingly, contracts are not just signed based on points... especially points in a single year.

Defensively, Marner is better.

Marner has a bigger track record.

And as much as people don't like it... Marner has been better overall in the playoffs.

Marner has not been better overall in the playoffs than Nylander. It's not even close.

 

[666]

Actually you started moving the goalposts quite a bit... so I joined in on the nonsense.

You claimed Marner's 'production' didn't drop off with Tavares yet Nylander's did. When I pointed out they both did - you started talking about their 'defensive production' - how was that reflected in the total points that the conversation was about?

Hint: It never was. It was meant to move the goalposts.

I never said points I only said production. At least now you understand more about production.

 

[notbias]

Marner has not been better overall in the playoffs than Nylander.

Can you point to anything that shows Nylander has been better? Overall, not specific series...

Points, play driving, goal differential, defensive play, anything?

Feelings and eye test do not count as they are not reliable.

 

[Divine]

Can you point to anything that shows Nylander has been better? Overall, not specific series...

Points, play driving, goal differential, defensive play, anything?

The fact that they have even remotely similar stats with Marner playing with way better talent. Their rookie seasons when Nylander had Matthews and Marner had (a much younger and better) Tavares, they finished with the same points.

 

[notbias]

The fact that they have even remotely similar stats with Marner playing with way better talent.

Let's try switching them.

So nothing...

You know QoC will change with this as well, right?

 

[thusk]

I was specifically talking about last year if your responding to that I’d love to hear it cause what your saying doesn’t correlate I am not singling out marner for our 8 year issues curious what depth you expect there to be when 5 guys get more than half the cap

just last year in specific...sure get Matthews injured, Nylander dealing with migraine and Marner came back from ankle injury didn't help.

1- Swayman outplayed Samsonov. Samsonov gave up at least 1 weak goal on each game leafs lost. hard to win playoff game with your goalie giving up a weak goal in each game and opposite G didn't. It's like starting every game down 1-0

2- closing a game had been an issue for the 5 years under keefe a game 7 was not an exception. Gave up game tying goal 2 min later after taking lead late in 3rd with momemtum in your side . You have to be able to protect the lead.

3- offensive production fromneveryone had been an issue...

Marner 3 pts not good enough...
matthews outside of gm 2 didn't produce a lot
Nylander didn't produce on 50% of game played ( in reality if knies didn't scored in OT, Nylander finishing maybe the playoff at 0 pts) but he had been clutche last 2

 

[Divine]

So nothing...

You know QoC will change with this as well, right?

Every time we've swapped them - Nylander looks better and Marner looks worse. Which is why they're switched back.

Marner needs Matthews. Matthews does not need Marner.

 

[666]

Use Colorado as an example then, 1 time out of the 2nd round the whole time Mac has been there... Mac should have been traded.

It's amazing you haven't grasped that concept despite the fact it's been explained to you almost every day.

This is another problem. We have people who have posted thousands and thousands of posts whining about Marner. If the Leafs win this season and Marner plays exactly the same as he usually does but Matthews goes from 4% to a more reasonable 12% shooting percentage, gets few more goals that win a few more games, and we win it all, then ALL will be forgiven about Marner.