Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[Hellcat]

I didn’t play hockey competitively. I played another sport and have been involved in high level athletics my entire life. Coached in u sports and in the OCAA here in Canada. Ran analytics as an assistant coach for another sport. When I dropped back down to youth level and with the provincial team as a head coach we used analytics heavily. Never in my life have I ever seen someone attempt to draw conclusions from the smallest sample sizes as much as a few people on here. That’s why I go so hard on like one or two posters in specific be side I know they are full of shit. No reasonable coaching staff in a professional setting would present data as fact like they do or even use it to draw a significant conclusion for performance. Not to mention ignoring context and multiple variables. If you’ve ever been in those types of meetings you know that discussions around lines and player personnel are much more nuanced than just slapping stats and saying “SEE”

One particular poster continues to post random things, pointless posts, without actually making a point or providing full context, it's cherry picked data. I know some Universities use forums, such as ones like HF, to see if their "AI's" can interact with people without being detected as AI's. The nonsensical pointless posts of one particular poster, are IMO something a dumb AI (AI in learning phase) would post, not saying it is an AI but it is doing a great job of behaving like one in it's early stages.

 

[Hellcat]

I've never seen those two live up to their potential in the playoffs. I remember getting destroyed by the Bergeron line. Those guys looked so good, I can only dream of our guys playing that well. On paper (and based on cap hit) they shouldn't be taking a back seat to Bergeron or anyone else really, but they've just never been able to do it.

To put it another way, I guess you could say that M&M have never "played the way they should", at least not in the playoffs.

It could just be in their DNA, when we were in our recent 5 game losing streak, they were forcing play, looked panicked at times, like the streak was too big for the moment for them, it's a lot like they behaved in the playoffs, when things dont go right, forcing plays, not taking what is avail, trying to win the game in one shift, still lots of immaturity in their games.

Mark Messier once said, and it is one of my mantras after I heard him say it, not word for word but it's to the extent, "Behave like you've been here before." In other words do you get small when the moment becomes big...or do you always take things in stride, behave the same way 60 seconds into a tied game as you would with 60 seconds left and down by one? I'm not sure either one has in him to not become small in a big moment. Their talent is without doubt, they are as elite as elite comes, I question their ability to mentally process stress effectively and play like a champion when the pressure is on.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I’m not sure there is a person on earth that thinks Domi is anywhere close to Marner. It would be interesting to see him on a line with Matthews for an entire season though.

I don't think the original point (way back when) was that Domi was as good as Marner, but rather that Matthews seemed to perform about as well with either.

I understand small sample size, and Matty played differently with each, but the results were similar.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It could just be in their DNA, when we were in our recent 5 game losing streak, they were forcing play, looked panicked at times, like the streak was too big for the moment for them, it's a lot like they behaved in the playoffs, when things dont go right, forcing plays, not taking what is avail, trying to win the game in one shift, still lots of immaturity in their games.

Mark Messier once said, and it is one of my mantras after I heard him say it, not word for word but it's to the extent, "Behave like you've been here before." In other words do you get small when the moment becomes big...or do you always take things in stride, behave the same way 60 seconds into a tied game as you would with 60 seconds left and down by one? I'm not sure either one has in him to not become small in a big moment. Their talent is without doubt, they are as elite as elite comes, I question their ability to mentally process stress effectively and play like a champion when the pressure is on.

It seems likely at this point. I remember one poster saying he know this core didn't have it in them after JT's first game with us back in Long Island and he may have nailed it. We didn't compete, and that has carried over to multiple game 7's where it has seemed like the other team wanted it more.

Every spring I hope that this is the year where the core guys shows me that they have that WIM (wants it more) factor. Every spring I get disappointed and they don't have many more chances left.

 

[arso40]

In reality it's not true... Marner played toughest matchup than Matthews his entire carreer especially come playoff time.

At 20 Marner was already playing vs the matchand-bergeron-pastrnak line

they had time they had been together but even last year when they had been split vs Boston, Marner played 82% of his time at even strenght vs Boston top 6, Matthews was like at 56%

This season, Ottawa game where marner and matthews had been split, Matthews only played 41 % vs Ottawa top 6 vs 65% for Marner.

So one person says marner was robbed playing on the third line and your saying Hes played the toughest matchups his entire career which one is it cause it cant be both

 

[arso40]

FOR WHOM EVER IT MAY CONCERN no one is suggesting domi can replace the production marner gives you what’s being suggested is matthews can carry his own line if he needs a playmaker on his wing domi is more than capable along with Knies to support matthews carrying a line and using the money saved to not pay marner to play robin to Batman and allocate it somewhere else 3c another dman whatever doesn’t matter where as long as it strengthens a weakness all this domi replacing marner stupidness you guys are spewing is childish understand that matthews doesn’t need marner to be successful that’s the gist of it like your holding on to air LOL

 

[GoonieFace]

I don't think the original point (way back when) was that Domi was as good as Marner, but rather that Matthews seemed to perform about as well with either.

I understand small sample size, and Matty played differently with each, but the results were similar.

I would be curious how he did with a full year on that line. He has high end skill for sure.

 

[thewave]

FOR WHOM EVER IT MAY CONCERN no one is suggesting domi can replace the production marner gives you what’s being suggested is matthews can carry his own line if he needs a playmaker on his wing domi is more than capable along with Knies to support matthews carrying a line and using the money saved to not pay marner to play robin to Batman and allocate it somewhere else 3c another dman whatever doesn’t matter where as long as it strengthens a weakness all this domi replacing marner stupidness you guys are spewing is childish understand that matthews doesn’t need marner to be successful that’s the gist of it like your holding on to air LOL

Yes I was struggling to get that across I think maybe. Anyways yes exactly the rationales

 

[Confucius]

FOR WHOM EVER IT MAY CONCERN no one is suggesting domi can replace the production marner gives you what’s being suggested is matthews can carry his own line if he needs a playmaker on his wing domi is more than capable along with Knies to support matthews carrying a line and using the money saved to not pay marner to play robin to Batman and allocate it somewhere else 3c another dman whatever doesn’t matter where as long as it strengthens a weakness all this domi replacing marner stupidness you guys are spewing is childish understand that matthews doesn’t need marner to be successful that’s the gist of it like your holding on to air LOL

Mathews can get his on his own, as can William and JT. Put Mitch with Laughton, surely he can make a 30 plus goal man out of him. If not why do we pay him so much?

 

[arso40]

Yes I was struggling to get that across I think maybe. Anyways yes exactly the rationales

It’s actually real life rediculous holding on to a point no one’s actually expressing if we wanna have a debate let’s talked about how tight it’s been and other than the flames game (no surprise) marner hasn’t really looked good that’s probably a better conversation we can debate on since some people have thought Hes looked great

 

[arso40]

Mathews can get his on his own, as can William and JT. Put Mitch with Laughton, surely he can make a 30 goal plus man out of him. If not why do we pay him so much?

Now your going to be a hater cause that’s the narrative but keep him with matthews and let him ride is coattails to 13 million dollars the fact that he thinks he’s an equal to this guy is a joke stand firm on your own two legs and prove it

 

[francis246]

FOR WHOM EVER IT MAY CONCERN no one is suggesting domi can replace the production marner gives you what’s being suggested is matthews can carry his own line if he needs a playmaker on his wing domi is more than capable along with Knies to support matthews carrying a line and using the money saved to not pay marner to play robin to Batman and allocate it somewhere else 3c another dman whatever doesn’t matter where as long as it strengthens a weakness all this domi replacing marner stupidness you guys are spewing is childish understand that matthews doesn’t need marner to be successful that’s the gist of it like your holding on to air LOL

The point we’re are making is that even this, is false and still needs to be proven. Besides the small sample size there is no evidence to even suggest that on a long term basis putting Domi on the top line and using Marner’s money to be allocated elsewhere is a smart move.

Look at how many variables would have to go right for that to happen. Domi would actually have to be consistent and produce like a top line player. You’d have to hit on every other free agent that you then replace Marner’s cap dollars with. The chances of everything working perfectly is probably less than 5%. Outside of one season in Montreal, Domi doesn’t have a track record of being a top line producer. Matthews would need to be producing at his regular clip and be healthy. Domi has multiple 9 goal seasons at the NHL level LOL. Banking on him to be the answer to the top line as a cost saving measure is incredibly stupid based on a small sample size. The leafs also know this, hence why he hasn’t gotten an extended look there. I’m sure they saw the numbers from last season, but there either is something in his game they don’t like enough to put him back up there, his defensive metrics are terrible or Matthews prefers Marner.

No one is saying, be afraid to replace Marner and not use his cap savings, but Domi is NOT the answer for the top line, not even close.

 

[ACC1224]

The point we’re are making is that even this, is false and still needs to be proven. Besides the small sample size there is no evidence to even suggest that on a long term basis putting Domi on the top line and using Marner’s money to be allocated elsewhere is a smart move.

Look at how many variables would have to go right for that to happen. Domi would actually have to be consistent and produce like a top line player. You’d have to hit on every other free agent that you then replace Marner’s cap dollars with. The chances of everything working perfectly is probably less than 5%. Outside of one season in Montreal, Domi doesn’t have a track record of being a top line producer. He has multiple 9 goal seasons at the NHL level LOL. Banking on him to be the answer to the top line as a cost saving measure is incredibly stupid based on a small sample size. The leafs also know this, hence why he hasn’t gotten an extended look there. I’m sure they saw the numbers from last season, but there either is something in his game they don’t like enough to put him back up there, his defensive metrics are terrible or Matthews prefers Marner.

No one is saying, be afraid to replace Marner and not use his cap savings, but Domi is NOT the answer for the top line, not even close.

I don't know how anyone can claim to have any understanding of the game and think what this team needs is to increase Domi and/or Laughtons ice time.

 

[francis246]

I don't know how anyone can claim to have any understanding of the game and think what this team needs is to increase Domi and/or Laughtons ice time.

People honestly believe they are smarter than anyone in the organization. The organization has access to all the numbers posted here and more. The fact that they have not moved Domi to the top line even after last years sample size tells me one of three things.

1. They do not believe those GF/60 numbers were sustainable

2. The data may suggest that Domi or the Matthews/Domi pairing may have some defensive flaws that the leafs don’t feel is worth sacrificing for the offense the line may be able to produce.

3. Auston Matthews straight up prefers to play with Mitch Marner and the leafs are sticking to that.

That’s just using cognitive reasoning. It’s pretty simple. The leafs have access to everything. If Domi was the answer he would have gotten an extended look there, no doubts about it.

 

[Confucius]

People honestly believe they are smarter than anyone in the organization. The organization has access to all the numbers posted here and more. The fact that they have not moved Domi to the top line even after last years sample size tells me one of three things.

1. They do not believe those GF/60 numbers were sustainable

2. The data may suggest that Domi or the Matthews/Domi pairing may have some defensive flaws that the leafs don’t feel is worth sacrificing for the offense the line may be able to produce.

3. Auston Matthews straight up prefers to play with Mitch Marner and the leafs are sticking to that.

That’s just using cognitive reasoning. It’s pretty simple. The leafs have access to everything. If Domi was the answer he would have gotten an extended look there, no doubts about it.

And they haven’t moved the needle on improvement in 8 years. They may be in charge but they have shown they can’t improve the team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

People honestly believe they are smarter than anyone in the organization. The organization has access to all the numbers posted here and more. The fact that they have not moved Domi to the top line even after last years sample size tells me one of three things.

1. They do not believe those GF/60 numbers were sustainable

2. The data may suggest that Domi or the Matthews/Domi pairing may have some defensive flaws that the leafs don’t feel is worth sacrificing for the offense the line may be able to produce.

3. Auston Matthews straight up prefers to play with Mitch Marner and the leafs are sticking to that.

That’s just using cognitive reasoning. It’s pretty simple. The leafs have access to everything. If Domi was the answer he would have gotten an extended look there, no doubts about it.

Just because the team does something, that doesn't mean it's the smart thing to do.

 

[francis246]

Just because the team does something, that doesn't mean it's the smart thing to do.

Not saying the teams word is always right, but they have the data there. The team is battling for first in the division. So it’s not like they haven’t been able to put together a good team/line up. I put the playoffs more on the players, they have under performed. If your play drops that significantly like Marner’s does in the game deciding games, no amount of line switching is going to do anything. At the end of the day your stars have to perform.

Essentially what I’m saying is, not even the organization who has access to everything believes Domi is the answer, so why the hell should any of us? My biggest thing is I think it’s #3. I think Matthews loves playing with Marner, there’s a comfortability there. Not saying he doesn’t like Domi, but players like what’s familiar.

 

[francis246]

And they haven’t moved the needle on improvement in 8 years. They may be in charge but they have shown they can’t improve the team.

Interesting.. would you say the organization hasn’t or have the players they have invested a ton of money in, just let them down countless times in the playoffs?

Mind you I don’t see a big difference in how Edmonton was build and Toronto is built. It’s just Edmonton’s stars are on another planet in the playoffs and that’s the difference.

 

[Confucius]

Interesting.. would you say the organization hasn’t or have the players they have invested a ton of money in, just let them down countless times in the playoffs?

Mind you I don’t see a big difference in how Edmonton was build and Toronto is built. It’s just Edmonton’s stars are on another planet in the playoffs and that’s the difference.

Well if the players you have invested in have let you down 8 straight years, why would you expect different results moving forward? The problem is indeed with the decision makers.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not saying the teams word is always right, but they have the data there. The team is battling for first in the division. So it’s not like they haven’t been able to put together a good team/line up. I put the playoffs more on the players, they have under performed. If your play drops that significantly like Marner’s does in the game deciding games, no amount of line switching is going to do anything. At the end of the day your stars have to perform.

Essentially what I’m saying is, not even the organization who has access to everything believes Domi is the answer, so why the hell should any of us? My biggest thing is I think it’s #3. I think Matthews loves playing with Marner, there’s a comfortability there. Not saying he doesn’t like Domi, but players like what’s familiar.

There's no way to tell if the team would be better or worse with different lines, that's the bottom line.

I think the line of thought goes something like this, if Domi with Matthews produces the same, or even more offence then it's worth considering. Now clearly Marner is better on D than Domi so that's something to consider, but if you put Marner on some other line instead of Domi, that line should also be much better right? Hard to measure these things exactly but this seemed to work pretty well last season, and I'm a bit annoyed that Berube hasn't even tried it. Yes Berube's the coach, yes he has "the data", but that doesn't mean he always makes smart decisions. If it was that simple then every coach would always do everything right but I think we can agree that that's not the case.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well if the players you have invested in have let you down 8 straight years, why would you expect different results moving forward? The problem is indeed with the decision makers.

Agreed. I mean I've always said most of the blame goes to the players but when it's been this many years, it's on the org for not deciding that it is indeed the players that are a problem and make some changes. I go back to the MTL series after which I said why don't we see what we can get in a trade for Marner, most people hated the idea and raked me over the coals but today it sure seems like running it back year after year was perhaps not ideal.

 

[ACC1224]

Interesting.. would you say the organization hasn’t or have the players they have invested a ton of money in, just let them down countless times in the playoffs?

Mind you I don’t see a big difference in how Edmonton was build and Toronto is built. It’s just Edmonton’s stars are on another planet in the playoffs and that’s the difference.

Players have stepped up no doubt but Edmonton also has had some favourable playoff matchups.

 

[notbias]

Well if the players you have invested in have let you down 8 straight years, why would you expect different results moving forward? The problem is indeed with the decision makers.

Colorado? Washington? Tampa? Many teams haven't sold off their stars and have won.

Maybe it is the wrong move, but just because they lost before doesn't mean they will keep losing.

McDavid has 0 titles and has been there longer, sell him and Drai? Who cares if they got close, they still can't win, right?

People honestly believe they are smarter than anyone in the organization. The organization has access to all the numbers posted here and more. The fact that they have not moved Domi to the top line even after last years sample size tells me one of three things.

1. They do not believe those GF/60 numbers were sustainable

2. The data may suggest that Domi or the Matthews/Domi pairing may have some defensive flaws that the leafs don’t feel is worth sacrificing for the offense the line may be able to produce.

3. Auston Matthews straight up prefers to play with Mitch Marner and the leafs are sticking to that.

That’s just using cognitive reasoning. It’s pretty simple. The leafs have access to everything. If Domi was the answer he would have gotten an extended look there, no doubts about it.

The Matthews line is top 5 (probably higher) in the league, and for some reason, people want to break it up... their stats are amazing.

 

[Confucius]

Agreed. I mean I've always said most of the blame goes to the players but when it's been this many years, it's on the org for not deciding that it is indeed the players that are a problem and make some changes. I go back to the MTL series after which I said why don't we see what we can get in a trade for Marner, most people hated the idea and raked me over the coals but today it sure seems like running it back year after year was perhaps not ideal.

Yes, the top players are good players but they aren’t good enough together. We need a different mix. A 1st class restaurant doesn’t need 3 Michelin rated steak chefs, trade one for a pastry chef.

 

[francis246]

Well if the players you have invested in have let you down 8 straight years, why would you expect different results moving forward? The problem is indeed with the decision makers.

Hahaha okay, I’ll bookmark this for after the season. Interesting.