Mitch Marner, Yet Again

You do realize domi got under four million dollars for being a playmaker that’s not a great 2 way player and @Antropovsky has shown time and time again that domi numbers are actually better with matthews and the eye test supports that so are you implying that the 9.5 difference in the salary he wants is cause of the defensive end?
The stats the you are referring to are something like a 15 game sample where Marner was injured and Domi and Matthews rocked while Matthews was chasing the Rocket. During that time and of course the guy who tricked you into making conclusions didn't mention was that they had unsustainable goals for. Even McDavid and Drai can't do that. And massively incredibly bad goals against. They went on an offensive heater together and a defensive disaster while Matthews chased 70. I could probably find a 15 game sample where Marner and Matthews have done even better offensively but their defense would have been much better.

It's ok to use a small sample size to state a fact. Matthews and Domi rocked for a couple of weeks. It wrong to draw any conclusions like Domi is better than Marner because of course that's stupid just as it would be stupid to suggest Matthews is a bad goal scorer during that stretch when didn't score in 9 games.

Try to avoid drawing conclusions when you see a small sample. That guy does it ALL the time.
 
He got paid for the one year he played with Tavares let’s not kid ourselves if we got a better look at his projection he wouldn’t have landed the contract he did he peaked at the right time
What? He got Tavares almost 50 goals while getting 94 points which pretty close to his 92 points career pace including the dark years of Babcock where he was in the 60's.
He didn't peak, every year since has has had more point/60 except one. Where do you get this stuff?
 
It’s the people that over root for the jerk that creat
The stats the you are referring to are something like a 15 game sample where Marner was injured and Domi and Matthews rocked while Matthews was chasing the Rocket. During that time and of course the guy who tricked you into making conclusions didn't mention was that they had unsustainable goals for. Even McDavid and Drai can't do that. And massively incredibly bad goals against. They went on an offensive heater together and a defensive disaster while Matthews chased 70. I could probably find a 15 game sample where Marner and Matthews have done even better offensively but their defense would have been much better.

It's ok to use a small sample size to state a fact. Matthews and Domi rocked for a couple of weeks. It wrong to draw any conclusions like Domi is better than Marner because of course that's stupid just as it would be stupid to suggest Matthews is a bad goal scorer during that stretch when didn't score in 9 games.

Try to avoid drawing conclusions when you see a small sample. That guy does it ALL the time.
It’s your viewpoint that it’s unsustainable no one said domi is better than marner I suggested he had better numbers with matthews so I’m asking you is the difference of expected salary on the defensive end ?
 
What? He got Tavares almost 50 goals while getting 94 points which pretty close to his 92 points career pace including the dark years of Babcock where he was in the 60's.
He didn't peak, every year since has has had more point/60 except one. Where do you get this stuff?
He got Tavares almost 50 goals ? Where’d you get that ? LOL Tavares got him 94 points
 
What's it say? All I ever get is broken links
Hey man, that shouldn't happen. Are you on a PC or a phone? It was instagram but you shouldn't need an account as I don't and I see if fine. Do have a weird ad blocker or a strange browser? Try a different browser. This site has some issues but you should be able to see that post.
 
He's basically having the exact same season as last year.

Last year: 69GP: 26G - 59A - 85P
This year: 67GP: 21G - 62A - 83P

I don't get how people are saying he stepped it up on his contract year. If anything, I think most would prefer his higher goalscoring last year.

The only difference is last year Matthews and Nylander both had better seasons which put Marner third in scoring. This year they've both regressed so far, leaving Marner first.

At least he's breaking the trend of Leafs having career years on their contract years.
He was on a 110-120 point pace earlier in the season and played his best hockey of the season when 34 was out. Now with teams playing tighter as the playoffs approach, his pace has fallen to 100 points. Same shit was true for Willie until he signed last year and ended up with 98 points.
 
  • Like
Reactions: arso40
No doubt about that, he doesn't do himself any favours.
He's not the sharpest marble, that's for sure. I care more about the play though than comments.

One thing I do know is that he cares very much for the team and his teammates which probably causes him some issues as well.
LOLOLOLOLOL. Wut?
 
  • Like
Reactions: arso40
It’s the people that over root for the jerk that creat
It’s your viewpoint that it’s unsustainable no one said domi is better than marner I suggested he had better numbers with matthews so I’m asking you is the difference of expected salary on the defensive end ?
No it's not my viewpoint that it's unsustainable. IT IS. No one has ever scored that much over an entire season or even half a season. And they were leaking goals at an incredible rate. I spent the time to explain small samples to and you didn't get it. Either Google it and learn or better yet pull out your trusty spreadsheet and test it yourself or get a Math degree.
 
Your interpretation of what you think I'm saying is very strange.

Mack makes Rantanen a great player. Strange wording. Rantanen produces great with Mack not so great without him on his line.
Marner makes Matthews a great player. No, Matthews in general is great and doesn't need Marner. He is just as great with Nylander but his sh% drops in the POs.
Matthews P/GP goes down in POs. This is true but I don't think I've ever actually said that. What I have said is that Matthews shooting percentage goes down drastically but that's definitely the reason his points go down.
Rantanen goes up in POs with Mack. No, they are always great together, It's when he is aways from Mack that his performance is bad.


So are you saying Matthews is not as good a player as Rantanen considering the massive downgrade in PO production?
What? No, I'm saying that Matthews sh% drops in the playoffs.

Or it's only because Mack is so much better than Marner and that's why Rantanen was positively affected. No, I'm just saying that Matthews sh% drops.

This suggests you think that Matthews is a average player in the playoffs and is dragging Marner down? It's more nuanced than that but Matthews' sh% is extremely low in the games that people are whining about Marner's points. Remember, you guys only hate Marner when he's not getting points and he still leads the team in PO points. Dekes and others have attempted to explain why. There's all sorts of reasons like hot goaltenders, lot's of posts hit, coaching strategies, injuries and a terrible PP but that facts are that they ARE getting the chances which is Marners job BUT they aren't going in which is Matthews' job. Just like Marner "sucked" in the four nations until the shots that he set up started falling instead of being saved.

How is It that Matthews shooting percentage goes down every year with Marner (PO). Isn't that basically impossible unless either his linemates or he himself is not good in the playoffs?

I thought data has been presented that state Matthews away from Marner in the POs is better. This includes his shooting% if true why? Povsky brought those stats up earlier.

To me, it's fishy to have a decline every year in similar situations against different teams while Rant and Mack were kicking ass and chewing bubble gum
 
  • Like
Reactions: arso40
You do realize domi got under four million dollars for being a playmaker that’s not a great 2 way player and @Antropovsky has shown time and time again that domi numbers are actually better with matthews and the eye test supports that so are you implying that the 9.5 difference in the salary he wants is cause of the defensive end?
Almost completed 2 full seasons with Domi. 1700-2000 min sample size, now that's a BIG sample size. Where are all those posters who were mocking me early this season for calling Domi a better playmaker in the offseason?

These are the stats 5v5:
Total assists:

Domi 5v5 mins -1710
Marner 5v5 mins - 1982

Domi - 50 total, 1.75/60
Marner - 58 total, 1.76/60

Primary assists
Domi - 34 total, 1.19/60
Marner - 35 total, 1.06/60

AND Marner ALWAYS plays with Matthews or Tavares. Meanwhile while Domi plays alot with 3rd liners.
 
  • Like
Reactions: thewave and arso40
How is It that Matthews shooting percentage goes down every year with Marner (PO). Isn't that basically impossible unless either his linemates or he himself is not good in the playoffs?

I thought data has been presented that state Matthews away from Marner in the POs is better. This includes his shooting% if true why? Povsky brought those stats up earlier.

To me, it's fishy to have a decline every year in similar situations against different teams while Rant and Mack were kicking ass and chewing bubble gum
You know, you can look this stuff up.
First of all. The sample sizes are small so we can't conclude anything. We can only state the facts.
The last three seasons, in the playoffs at 5v5 Marner and Matthews together have an on on ice sh% (that's everyone on the line of 11.43%) while Matthews and Nylander who have played much less together have an on ice sh% 3.33%
Do not draw any conclusions it's just what it is.

That's just an example because it's easy to look up but I'm not really interested in looking stuff up for people. Matthews and Marner are pretty good in the playoffs but it's those last three games that are freaking everyone out and that's where the 4% sh% come from. I've offered you many reasons for you to explore but when I watch the games Marner is pretty well the same Marner (maybe even better defensively) the shots just aren't going it.
 
Last edited:
Again though, do we really have to act like teams and agents didn't know/have an estimate of what next seasons cap hit would be
Thinking and knowing are different things, and they wouldn't have even thought 95.5m, because that required further negotiations to even be possible. Not to mention two more massive jumps in the following two years.
our players are out for money and nothing else waiting for the cap to rise officially to sign their new deals.
You've kind of just jumped to the assumption that not signing a year early is a result of only caring about money and wanting to take advantage of cap raises.
No games are being played with Marner.
Disagree. We should have made it a priority last offseason, and the whole deadline stuff was a circus. They knew Marner wasn't interested in signing in-season. They should have known Marner wasn't going to waive. This is the last thing we needed heading into the playoffs.
1st round exits non stop is not getting closer to the cup
What round you've exited past playoffs is a poor measure of how close you are to a cup, and making your team worse doesn't get you closer to a cup.
An emotional reaction is saying blow the core up after 2-3 years of round 1 exits. 8 years of the same stuff is more than enough time for fans to see this isn't working and have nothing to look forward to.
An emotional reaction is wanting to remove one of the best parts of your team for change's sake because you are upset at past outcomes. It has not been 8 years of the same thing. You're just looking at things through one very specific lens.
This is the NHL. Winning rounds in the playoffs is the main goal
The Cup is the main goal. What round you lose in doesn't actually mean or represent a whole lot.
The fact you try and make excuses and say that's shortsighted when fans are expecting more playoff success from this core is ironic.
Acknowledging the actual reasons for things and what it actually means is not making excuses. It's fine to want and expect more playoff success. But it's counterproductive to then damage your team's future because you haven't got it yet.
Losing pieces of this core doesn't impact our team like you say. Every player in this core has missed time and our team has looked fine with 1 of them out of the lineup almost every time
Maintaining a respectable record through a handful of games is different than maintaining a record long-term, and having multiple superstars is one of the reason we can maintain through injury. And ironically, Marner is the one we are the worst without. Which is likely in large part statistical noise, but also probably a bit about how much and how many things Marner impacts.
Paying proven and consistent 40-50 point scorers does help the depth scoring be more consistent.
Bunting the only 1 who we can say was 1 of the few league min guys who had his miracle seasons getting a chance to play with Matthews before falling off. Mikheyev, Engvall, Kerfoot and Foligno are interesting ones since I don't remember these guys being known for their offence so idk why we'd think they'd help the depth scoring. Foligno especially. Got 11 games total out of him and 0 goals and 5 assists for a 1st round pick I believe. Bertuzzi was only her for 1 season and had a pretty good season after a slow start. O'Rielly was great in his 24 total games we had him for. Laughton has been here a week. Domi has been a great playmaker here but needs to start scoring more.
You're missing the point. These are the guys getting 3-5m in UFA. In fact, with the rising cap, even worse players are going to get that. We've already had them! Paying the same caliber of players more money isn't going to help our depth scoring be more consistent. And even if we were able to make our depth scoring more consistent, the difference between them and what we can and have gotten for cheaper is not going to be worth the loss of Marner.
The cap rising doesn't free up much cap when we're just paying the same guys who took up all our cap even more money, and then also having to pay other guys who were on team friendly deals after trades or on ELCs. Knies, McCabe and Woll are the 3 that come to mind here.
We're paying the four 46.65m this year. That leaves ~41m. Re-signing them all, we're probably looking at around 45m. That leaves over 50m next year... 59m the next year... 68m the next year... Yes, players like Knies, McCabe, and Woll will see increases, but it's the job of the GM to get the next Knies/McCabe/Woll.
We have 7 forwards making 2+mil towards our cap. 4 of them are the core who are making 11+. Did Florida also have 4 of their 8 making 11 mil+? Barkov and Tkachuk are the highest paid and they made 19.5 combined.
Both teams had 8 forwards on 2m+ contracts, and both teams used a number of cheap depth players. Toronto pays their better players a bit more, and Florida does things like pay 11m+ for goaltending and have millions in dead cap. There are many ways to win, and the depth players that helped them are not players that we would not have been able to afford.
 
Almost completed 2 full seasons with Domi. 1700-2000 min sample size, now that's a BIG sample size. Where are all those posters who were mocking me early this season for calling Domi a better playmaker in the offseason?

These are the stats 5v5:
Total assists:

Domi 5v5 mins -1710
Marner 5v5 mins - 1982

Domi - 50 total, 1.75/60
Marner - 58 total, 1.76/60

Primary assists
Domi - 34 total, 1.19/60
Marner - 35 total, 1.06/60

AND Marner ALWAYS plays with Matthews or Tavares. Meanwhile while Domi plays alot with 3rd liners.
I'll trust your stats as that is a nice sample size and you've even provided some context. You seem to have left out secondary assists and anything about goals against. It is odd that you NEVER show defensive stats. You've also used stats from two different coaches and picked a period where Marner was injured and Matthews went on an unsustainable offensive heater with Domi. BUT it doesn't really matter because you already put it in the context. Domi plays a lot with 3rd liners. But much more importantly he plays AGAINST third liners. Marner plays against Mack and McDrai and Crosby etc. It is virtually impossible to do what you are trying to do (comparing a top line elite winger to a third liner) because they play in completely different contexts with different players. It's much better to compare Marner to Nylander but then you need to get a lot of data as Nylander went on that pre contract heater that skews everything. I would suggest that you take the last 3 full seasons with the same coach and compare Marner to Nylander. I look forward to your results.
 
Almost completed 2 full seasons with Domi. 1700-2000 min sample size, now that's a BIG sample size. Where are all those posters who were mocking me early this season for calling Domi a better playmaker in the offseason?

These are the stats 5v5:
Total assists:

Domi 5v5 mins -1710
Marner 5v5 mins - 1982

Domi - 50 total, 1.75/60
Marner - 58 total, 1.76/60

Primary assists
Domi - 34 total, 1.19/60
Marner - 35 total, 1.06/60

AND Marner ALWAYS plays with Matthews or Tavares. Meanwhile while Domi plays alot with 3rd liners.
Which means marners looking to get 9.5 more than domi for the defensive side of the pucc LOL how do they continue to justify this silly stuff that’s a number 1 dman we’re losing out on to cater to Mitch ffs f right off
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: ToneDog and thewave
Hey man, that shouldn't happen. Are you on a PC or a phone? It was instagram but you shouldn't need an account as I don't and I see if fine. Do have a weird ad blocker or a strange browser? Try a different browser. This site has some issues but you should be able to see that post.
I use Brave only for this site, I'm guessing it's the ad blocker that's causing it.
 
Right about last night. I have flipped my opinion on signing Mitchy. While I believe he wants to leave (many don't agree), I think keeping him is the way forward. The cap increases, so his salary is less punishing, JT drops but more important the supply of players from Marlies is gone, our first rounders are gone, Kampf who can skate is replaced at a greater cost on line 4, and what we have to look forward to is Cowan and a few potential free agents. Mitchy must stay. He is now irreplaceable, whether he is a playoff performer or not.
Sign him up.
I'm sure Marner will end up re-signing. Him and his family just want a couple of days where other teams are waxing lyrical about him firstly.

The Leafs records he will hold will prove way too much for him and his team to walk away from.

They all just need their ego feeding through this process.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: arso40
Which means marners looking to get 9.5 more than domi for the defensive side of the pucc LOL how do they continue to justify this silly stuff that’s a number 1 dman we’re losing out on to cater to Mitch ffs f right off

Exactly. When you sort the nuts and bolts of Marner you quickly understand that he certainly isn't worth the price tag. That isn't to say he is not a good player.

Nylander was the correct choice of the two for two reasons alone. Entry speed, goal scoring. Both are absolutely important and that isn't including the clutch bit
 
  • Like
Reactions: arso40
Which means marners looking to get 9.5 more than domi for the defensive side of the pucc LOL how do they continue to justify this silly stuff that’s a number 1 dman we’re losing out on to cater to Mitch ffs f right off
5v5 comparison stats need QOC with them. Antro has a biased opinion and always leaves things out to suit his narrative.

Marner went head to head with MacKinnon last night. Who did Domi go up against, Coyle?
 
5v5 comparison stats need QOC with them. Antro has a biased opinion and always leaves things out to suit his narrative.
Regardless of the fact majority of the money is on the defensive side between the 2 and domi line looked just as good defensively without marner maybe cause matthews is still on the line
 
5v5 comparison stats need QOC with them. Antro has a biased opinion and always leaves things out to suit his narrative.

Marner went head to head with MacKinnon last night. Who did Domi go up against, Coyle?
Matthew’s went up against mac take marner off that line nothing changes so no it wasn’t marner that went head to head with mac
 
  • Like
Reactions: GoonieFace
There were reports he shop Nylander around but didn't like the return


I don't believe that to be true. It doesn't make sense that a GM of his stature would come in and not be allowed to do what he sees fit.

Again. He was literally told
Almost completed 2 full seasons with Domi. 1700-2000 min sample size, now that's a BIG sample size. Where are all those posters who were mocking me early this season for calling Domi a better playmaker in the offseason?

These are the stats 5v5:
Total assists:

Domi 5v5 mins -1710
Marner 5v5 mins - 1982

Domi - 50 total, 1.75/60
Marner - 58 total, 1.76/60

Primary assists
Domi - 34 total, 1.19/60
Marner - 35 total, 1.06/60

AND Marner ALWAYS plays with Matthews or Tavares. Meanwhile while Domi plays alot with 3rd liners.

Don’t show this to @Dekes For Days. “Primary assists and 5on5 scoring” make Marner equal to domi.

Or domi similar to Drai, better than Willy and pasta and rantanen.

Maybe we offer Marner 3:75
 
  • Haha
Reactions: arso40
I think this does a good example showing just how flawed these blogger stats can be. Marner is obviously a drastically superior player to Domi, but it's funny how the numbers can be presented alongside the "primary points" nonsense and all of a sudden things look interesting.
 
  • Like
Reactions: arso40
I think this does a good example showing just how flawed these blogger stats can be. Marner is obviously a drastically superior player to Domi, but it's funny how the numbers can be presented alongside the "primary points" nonsense and all of a sudden things look interesting.
Offensively it would be interesting to see Domi with Matthews for a full season. He is a really good passer and skater. All around player, Marner is obviously better.
 
  • Like
Reactions: arso40
adding hide avatars option

Ad

Ad