Mitch Marner, Yet Again

My friend you just said he gets paid more than domi cause he scores more goals cause their playmaking looks pretty similar marners obviously the better player but domi himself is a good player so if their playmaking is similar the difference is on defence and goal scoring your saying?cause a while ago you highlighted goal scoring for the difference

lol, oh God.. Marner is better than Domi period. You wanna give Domi the fact that he’s better than Matthews? Go ahead, that’s about the only statistical advantage domi has over Marner. It’s not even a close comparison honestly. Throw Domi on the PK and see what happens.
 
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lol, oh God.. Marner is better than Domi period. You wanna give Domi the fact that he’s better than Matthews? Go ahead, that’s about the only statistical advantage domi has over Marner. It’s not even a close comparison honestly. Throw Domi on the PK and see what happens.
I just said goal scoring and defence is marner and Hes clearly the better player but domi is a good player who has similar playmaking skills what are you talkin about pk for? I’m just trying to understand what we’re paying marner the extra 9.5 million for is all no need to get out of sorts my friend healthy debate remember
 
I just said goal scoring and defence is marner and Hes clearly the better player but domi is a good player who has similar playmaking skills what are you talkin about pk for? I’m just trying to understand what we’re paying marner the extra 9.5 million for is all no need to get out of sorts my friend healthy debate remember

lol. You’re asking me to tell you why Marner gets paid why he does and Domi gets paid what he does. If you have to ask anyone that, I’m afraid you don’t watch hockey or understand hockey.
 
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lol. You’re asking me to tell you why Marner gets paid why he does and Domi gets paid what he does. If you have to ask anyone that, I’m afraid you don’t watch hockey or understand hockey.
No your not understanding I’m asking you to justify if it’s worth paying marner that much more than domi for the difference in the two players playing with matthews that’s what I’m asking and it’s a retorical question the answer is NO it’s not lol
 
I just said goal scoring and defence is marner and Hes clearly the better player but domi is a good player who has similar playmaking skills what are you talkin about pk for? I’m just trying to understand what we’re paying marner the extra 9.5 million for is all no need to get out of sorts my friend healthy debate remember

Comparing Domi to Marner in playmaking ability is like comparing Robertson to Matthews in scoring ability

Now if you are trying to be funny then that’s fine
Hahahah
But if you’re serious
May the hockey gods have mercy on your soul
 
No your not understanding I’m asking you to justify if it’s worth paying marner that much more than domi for the difference in the two players playing with matthews that’s what I’m asking and it’s a retorical question the answer is NO it’s not lol

I fully understand what you are asking me and what I’m saying is, if you need to ask me or anyone else and if you also think the answer is no, you don’t know shit about hockey. If you’re trolling, then I can accept that lol.
 
I fully understand what you are asking me and what I’m saying is, if you need to ask me or anyone else and if you also think the answer is no, you don’t know shit about hockey. If you’re trolling, then I can accept that lol.
I was trying to explain sample sizes to that guy today. Not sure how to say this but his perspective on things is very special.
 
Comparing Domi to Marner in playmaking ability is like comparing Robertson to Matthews in scoring ability

Now if you are trying to be funny then that’s fine
Hahahah
But if you’re serious
May the hockey gods have mercy on your soul
It’s really not though like at all
 
I was trying to explain sample sizes to that guy today. Not sure how to say this but his perspective on things is very special.

Lol, the Marner thread is a hotbed for small sample sizes used to diminish him as a player.

I think he’s conflating two things here. He’s arguing that Marner is overpaid and also that he’s not worth more than Domi.

Marner may be slightly overpaid but he is so far and above better than Domi and worth like 4x more than Domi. Outside of playmaking ability they aren’t even similar players. We’re talking about consistency, ability to produce in all situations, defensive ability, scoring. Whatever else you want to name. Everyone points to that small sample size of Matthews and Domi together and while they may actually be good together, Domi isn’t good enough to consistently produce. That pairing had a high xgf but they also had a higher xGA than Marner and Matthews I believe? Maybe I’m wrong but I do believe that’s the case. So it goes back to your point about, it doesn’t really matter if you score a lot if you’re also getting scored on a ton.
 
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Regardless of the fact majority of the money is on the defensive side between the 2 and domi line looked just as good defensively without marner maybe cause matthews is still on the line
The only thing to consider on thus subject is...over the season, we would miss Mitchy but if Domi left, we lose nothing for 60 games, since he only shows up for 20 games per.
 
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The only thing to consider on thus subject is...over the season, we would miss Mitchy but if Domi left, we lose nothing for 60 games, since he only shows up for 20 games per.
We would not miss Mitch provided we get someone to pk along with the 13 million in cap space he would cost but we can agree to disagree
 
Lol, the Marner thread is a hotbed for small sample sizes used to diminish him as a player.

I think he’s conflating two things here. He’s arguing that Marner is overpaid and also that he’s not worth more than Domi.

Marner may be slightly overpaid but he is so far and above better than Domi and worth like 4x more than Domi. Outside of playmaking ability they aren’t even similar players. We’re talking about consistency, ability to produce in all situations, defensive ability, scoring. Whatever else you want to name. Everyone points to that small sample size of Matthews and Domi together and while they may actually be good together, Domi isn’t good enough to consistently produce. That pairing had a high xgf but they also had a higher xGA than Marner and Matthews I believe? Maybe I’m wrong but I do believe that’s the case. So it goes back to your point about, it doesn’t really matter if you score a lot if you’re also getting scored on a ton.
Yeah, Domi and Matthews had an unsustainable GF and a brutal GA as Matthews chased 70 and defense was left to suffer.
Their GF/60 was 6.67 and GA/60 was 3.77. Matthews over the last 6 years is about 3.8 and 2.5.
This year, Matthews and Domi are 3.24 and 1.08 as they are nicely regressing to the mean as expected. These are really good examples of small samples and why it's fine to say something like Matthews and Domi went on a heater because it's true but it's absurd to say that Domi is even close to Marner.
Marner and Matthews together over that last three full seasons are a very nice 4.24 and 2.6.
 
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Thinking and knowing are different things, and they wouldn't have even thought 95.5m, because that required further negotiations to even be possible. Not to mention two more massive jumps in the following two years.

You've kind of just jumped to the assumption that not signing a year early is a result of only caring about money and wanting to take advantage of cap raises.

Disagree. We should have made it a priority last offseason, and the whole deadline stuff was a circus. They knew Marner wasn't interested in signing in-season. They should have known Marner wasn't going to waive. This is the last thing we needed heading into the playoffs.

What round you've exited past playoffs is a poor measure of how close you are to a cup, and making your team worse doesn't get you closer to a cup.

An emotional reaction is wanting to remove one of the best parts of your team for change's sake because you are upset at past outcomes. It has not been 8 years of the same thing. You're just looking at things through one very specific lens.

The Cup is the main goal. What round you lose in doesn't actually mean or represent a whole lot.

Acknowledging the actual reasons for things and what it actually means is not making excuses. It's fine to want and expect more playoff success. But it's counterproductive to then damage your team's future because you haven't got it yet.

Maintaining a respectable record through a handful of games is different than maintaining a record long-term, and having multiple superstars is one of the reason we can maintain through injury. And ironically, Marner is the one we are the worst without. Which is likely in large part statistical noise, but also probably a bit about how much and how many things Marner impacts.


You're missing the point. These are the guys getting 3-5m in UFA. In fact, with the rising cap, even worse players are going to get that. We've already had them! Paying the same caliber of players more money isn't going to help our depth scoring be more consistent. And even if we were able to make our depth scoring more consistent, the difference between them and what we can and have gotten for cheaper is not going to be worth the loss of Marner.

We're paying the four 46.65m this year. That leaves ~41m. Re-signing them all, we're probably looking at around 45m. That leaves over 50m next year... 59m the next year... 68m the next year... Yes, players like Knies, McCabe, and Woll will see increases, but it's the job of the GM to get the next Knies/McCabe/Woll.

Both teams had 8 forwards on 2m+ contracts, and both teams used a number of cheap depth players. Toronto pays their better players a bit more, and Florida does things like pay 11m+ for goaltending and have millions in dead cap. There are many ways to win, and the depth players that helped them are not players that we would not have been able to afford.
They did know. They literally put out the projected numbers like 2 years ago that'd they'd be around 92+ mil in 2025/26 and higher the next few seasons. Draisatl could've easily done what Marner did and wait until they knew the exact number and got more money but didn't. He signed because he wanted to stay.

Easy assumption to make when this has become the norm for him during contract negotiations.

He's a player with an agent that negotiates his contract. He's one of the teams top players and he thinks his contract isn't gonna be an issue during the season in Toronto of all places? Give me a break with all that crap. Just has to sign his name on a piece of paper after the agent and GM agree to a deal so this whole I'm not gonna sign during the season is obviously an agent playing games trying to pressure a GM to give them everything they want. GM did what every GM would do when dealing with an agent like Marners and give him a way out where he would get paid what he wants and the team gets a good player in return.

The round you've exited from the playoffs in the past is not a poor measure of how close you are to a cup when they get eliminated in the same round and same game every year. Maybe you'd be right if a team had a good team and they were missing half their roster due to injury but that isn't the case here. Yeah we lost Tavares 1 series but still had Matthews, Marner and Nylander. Last year we had Matthews and Nylander miss a few games but were back for the elimination games and we still lost. According to you this core is the best we've ever had, Dubas was one of the best GMs we've ever had and put together the best Leafs teams ever in 2020-22 years I believe and Keefe was one of the best coaches in Leafs history. All of this and still 1st round exits only. Taking up all that cap hit on 4 forwards though isn't the problem and we should continue doing it though, right?

It has been 8 years. A lot of other dynasties or good cores did well on their ELC years in the playoffs too. maybe not all 3 years but at least 1 or 2 of those years. Since he signed his big deal he has played in 37 playoff games and has 6 goals and 33 points in that stretch. What's even worse is that a majority of those points come in games 1-4, especially that playoff run where he put up 14 points in 11 games. 10 points in the 1st 4 games of those playoffs and only 4 points the rest of the way. But yes, lets continue to make this player one of the highest paid players when this is how he performs in the playoffs and doesn't even finish top 5 in NHL scoring every year. Maybe it's time you start to look at your analytics and begin to realize how flawed a lot of them are and the ones that are useful and helpful are probably behind closed doors that teams analytics departments pay a lot of money to keep secret.

You're right, the cup is the main goal. Clearly it's not our teams main goal though because they still take every penny they can all while getting the most endorsement money in the entire league.

We've already damaged our teams future and have been for years. What are you talking about? Our prospect pool is not that amazing. We barely have any picks and it's been like that for a while now. Moving a piece of this core opens up so much that we could do either via free agency or trades. Look what Washington was able to do after getting to use Backstrom and Kuznetsov cap to add to their teams depth and blueline.

A majority of our losses without Marner in the lineup came during the Babcock era, especially the time when the team gave up on him and got him fired. After Babcock got fired they literally went on to win 4/6 games. Team went 2-8 without Marner while Babcock was the coach. So since he got fired we went 19-9 if that 21-17-5 record is correct. Idk what games went to OT so the records I put for Babcock and Keefe aren't 100% accurate but close enough and gives a little more context to that record without him. Not only is the core better at this point in their career the team is as well.

You've made the point that the best teams we had with this core had these depth players who we couldn't afford to keep. So going off of your own argument don't you think we have a better chance of winning keeping those pieces that helped the team supposedly be so good? Maybe depth scoring wouldn't suck so much if we could actually afford to keep ones who worked out well for us around. Our best discount contracts were players who got to play more minutes and be in the top 6 and on the PP. But but but losing Marner would hurt the top 6 and the PP. If having Matthews, Nylander and Tavares in our top 6 slows down the top 6 and PP then I think a lot of the people who said this entire core needs to go is right. Apparently only Toronto can have this many top players and their offence dry up because of 1 player while other top players play with anyone and still put up 90+ points.

We got our top 4 on defence locked up and our 2 goalies. The core 4 and the top 4 d and 2 goalies is gonna cost us 75 mil of the 95 mil cap. Add Knies extension and it's over 80 mil. The rest of the players under contract probably take up around 10 mil as well. So what cap are you talking about? This is going off Marner signing for 13.5 mil and Tavares for 7. Kampf and Jarnkrok I could easily see gone so that's 4.5 mil right there. Robertson a RFA also. So again, just because the cap is going up it doesn't mean we are getting more cap space to make moves even if we sign Marner. It'll be the same damn thing.

Again, a majority of those depth contracts on Florida that made less than 5 mil played in their top 6 and on special teams or played defence. They were also able to afford to keep all of them by giving them good pay raises. We don't have that luxury because apparently spreading that money out to more players makes us worse. That 10 million dollar was an over rated goalie who only went on a generational run remember. Stupid GM could've used that money on 1 forward.
 
No your not understanding I’m asking you to justify if it’s worth paying marner that much more than domi for the difference in the two players playing with matthews that’s what I’m asking and it’s a retorical question the answer is NO it’s not lol
You pay a premium for superstars.

Value wise is Matthews at 13.25M pacing for 50 goals worth more than McMann at 1.35M pacing for 25 goals? That's like 9+ McMann's we could have instead!! It's really a silly argument.
 
Did you see that play when Nylander was the first man back and broke up a rush? This nonsense of him never backchecking makes it quite easy to find the blind haters
My only complaint with Nylander is he takes quite a few games off. If he didn't he could elevate himself to a top player in the league, like 5-10 range assuming he's around the 10-20 range right now.
 
5v5 comparison stats need QOC with them. Antro has a biased opinion and always leaves things out to suit his narrative.

Marner went head to head with MacKinnon last night. Who did Domi go up against, Coyle?
Your argument is very easily refuted:

1) Domi was most productive while playing on the top line with Matthews.
2)Domi is 4th in the entire league in primary assists since beginning of last season. If it's so easy to get those easy assists than why is no other 3rd liner in the top 10?

Marner doesnt have a primary assist in his last 17 games!

Screenshot_20250320_160717_Chrome.jpg
 
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Your argument is very easily refuted:

1) Domi was most productive while playing on the top line with Matthews.
2)Domi is 4th in the entire league in primary assists since beginning of last season. If it's so easy to get those easy assists than why is no other 3rd liner in the top 10?

Marner doesnt have a primary assist in his last 17 games!

View attachment 996283
How is that refuting a point when you don't even address it? I asked about their QOC. Also curious, why did you go back to the beginning of last season, why not just this one?
 
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