Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[ToneDog]

Ask Matthews and Nylander? He’s getting 13 on 8, as he should, given what Matthews got on a 4 year deal. It’s fine to argue what he’s worth, I simply look at the internal structure, he’s getting more than Nylander and close to Matthews, which is fair by our metrics. We will never get out of the Dubas debacle, not with this core.

If he has a good playoffs and the team wins a couple of rounds, you are most likely right. If not he will not want to be here and is walking IMO.

 

[ACC1224]

Last night was his best game in a few, he and Matthews were dynamite. This is a pretty good team when the best players lead by example. They left nothing on the ice, was fun to watch.

 

[666]

Marner has hardly ever if ever outpaced Rantanen.

It's a dishonest argument and you know it. Rantanen is a very good player not the product of Mack. He does not have a 1.2p/GP in the playoffs by being a dependent.

I'm saying that Rantanen is a by product of Mack because when he's on the second line without Mack and no longer playing against the best his performance drops into the negatives. Same as Nylander. Marner performs with Tavares as well as with Matthews.

The 1.2p/GP are playing mostly with Mack who is currently leading the league in assists. Mack is a super elite playmaker who draws the attention of opposition while feeding Rantanen so he can score. You don't score 55 goals like Rantanen did or 54 like Hyman did or 69 Like Matthews did without an elite playmaker.

The comparison that you might want to consider is why does Rantanan have a 14% shooting percentage in the playoffs while Matthews goes from 16% to 10% to 4% in important games.

 

[ToneDog]

You know it my man. I just don't like the dishonesty coming with it. Rantanen is not a good player without Mack takes the cake. Necas is pretty much where he was before he was traded and Rantanen after having the rug pulled twice is getting up to speed quick.

Overpaying just because is another silly one. Its just not cool to create weird narratives.

Mr. elite defensively was a statue as MacKinnon calming skated by him on the Avs goal. But hey, he got his cookie last night on a gift Matthews PP goal. Sorry, you cannot win with this type of player making the money he wants.

 

[Nineteen67]

Ask Matthews and Nylander? He’s getting 13 on 8, as he should, given what Matthews got on a 4 year deal. It’s fine to argue what he’s worth, I simply look at the internal structure, he’s getting more than Nylander and close to Matthews, which is fair by our metrics. We will never get out of the Dubas debacle, not with this core.

They can always get out it by letting him walk.

But, If he’s worth 13x8, I still think if he really wants to stay at home it has to be worth something? Tkachuk and Rantanen took less to play where they wanted to, he should too

 

[thewave]

I'm saying that Rantanen is a by product of Mack because when he's on the second line without Mack and no longer playing against the best his performance drops into the negatives. Same as Nylander. Marner performs with Tavares as well as with Matthews.

The 1.2p/GP are playing mostly with Mack who is currently leading the league in assists. Mack is a super elite playmaker who draws the attention of opposition while feeding Rantanen so he can score. You don't score 55 goals like Rantanen did or 54 like Hyman did or 69 Like Matthews did without an elite playmaker.

The comparison that you might want to consider is why does Rantanan have a 14% shooting percentage in the playoffs while Matthews goes from 16% to 10% to 4% in important games.

Well that's a great point.

So you just admitted that Marner isnt a good playmaker in a playoff setting. Why does a goal scorer like Matthews fall so low with such a good playmaker.

Now Rantanen goes so high with Mack in shooting percentage. So he is actually a good playoff playmaker and Marner is bad.

There is a pretty big problem with your argument now isn't there.

 

[GoonieFace]

Short sample? It's the last 5 years. Now 4 points in 5 games, that's a short sample. Here's a short sample, Rantanen got 1 point in the 4 nations and 6 points in 13 games with Carolina. I wouldn't go drawing conclusions from that but 5 years is NOT a short sample.

This has nothing to do with Necas.

Why can't Marner produce with Matthews when Matthews' shooting percentage goes from 16% to 4%. Hmm, I wonder.

If Matthews isn’t scoring, maybe Mitch can score some goals and give Matthews some assists.

 

[thewave]

If Matthews isn’t scoring, maybe Mitch can score some goals and give Matthews some assists.

Or Marner is just a terrible playmaker in the Playoffs. They just said, Rantanen 1.2p/GP because Mack..

Matthews is a better scorer then Rantanen. Why can't Marner who wants paid more than Mack get Matthews past .8p/GP in the playoffs

They need to just be honest. Their arguments to justify another Marner overpay break themselves

 

[Niagara Bill]

Last night was his best game in a few, he and Matthews were dynamite. This is a pretty good team when the best players lead by example. They left nothing on the ice, was fun to watch.

Right about last night. I have flipped my opinion on signing Mitchy. While I believe he wants to leave (many don't agree), I think keeping him is the way forward. The cap increases, so his salary is less punishing, JT drops but more important the supply of players from Marlies is gone, our first rounders are gone, Kampf who can skate is replaced at a greater cost on line 4, and what we have to look forward to is Cowan and a few potential free agents. Mitchy must stay. He is now irreplaceable, whether he is a playoff performer or not.
Sign him up.

 

[IPS]

Rantanen needs Mack to produce. Very much like Nylander is a minus player without Matthews while Marner is always positive. Rantanen and Nylander are one level below Marner because while they produce a lot offense their defence is even worse.

So all the lists that ESPN, Sportsnet, The Hockey News, NHL Network, and TSN who have Rantanen ranked ahead of Marner just can't understand defense either?

Your quest to gaslight the board into thinking defense is equally as valuable as offense from wingers is an entertaining one. So is some elite defensive winger who produces 20 points equally as valuable as Nylander?

 

[666]

Well that's a great point.

So you just admitted that Marner isnt a good playmaker in a playoff setting. Why does a goal scorer like Matthews fall so low with such a good playmaker.

Now Rantanen goes so high with Mack in shooting percentage. So he is actually a good playoff playmaker and Marner is bad.

There is a pretty big problem with your argument now isn't there.

That's not how shooting percentage works. You don't seem to remember the playoffs but last night it happened a few times where Marner fed Matthews with the perfect pass and he missed. Same with the 4 nations. In the first few games the passes were there but the shots didn't go in then in the last game the same player making the same quality passes and the shots happen to go in.

We also have stats like HDCF that clearly show that Matthews is getting excellent scoring chances, they just aren't going in. Shirly you must see that. These stats only confirm the eye test.

Rewatch last nights game if you can't remember. Something is wrong with Matthews this season, not Marner. Marner would lead the team in points by even more if Matthews wasn't hurt and only shooting 12.6% instead of his normal 16% This season is a great analogy for the the playoffs. Marner is still getting in passing lanes, chipping the puck out the zone, and all the other amazing things that he does that we don't measure. He is also setting up his line mates for excellent chances but they just aren't going it. Just like this season with Matthews who is struggling not Marner.

 

[francis246]

That's not how shooting percentage works. You don't seem to remember the playoffs but last night it happened a few times where Marner fed Matthews with the perfect pass and he missed. Same with the 4 nations. In the first few games the passes were there but the shots didn't go in then in the last game the same player making the same quality passes and the shots happen to go in.

We also have stats like HDCF that clearly show that Matthews is getting excellent scoring chances, they just aren't going in. Shirly you must see that. These stats only confirm the eye test.

Rewatch last nights game if you can't remember. Something is wrong with Matthews this season, not Marner. Marner would lead the team in points by even more if Matthews wasn't hurt and only shooting 12.6% instead of his normal 16% This season is a great analogy for the the playoffs. Marner is still getting in passing lanes, chipping the puck out the zone, and all the other amazing things that he does that we don't measure. He is also setting up his line mates for excellent chances but they just aren't going it. Just like this season with Matthews who is struggling not Marner.

There was one play where Marner made a crazy pass through traffic from the right side to the left, Matthews had short side and he missed. In previous years that would have been an electric Matthews geno.

This has to be Matthews lowest shooting percentage year for his career. It’s kinda crazy. I don’t think Marner or Knies playmaking is the problem, Matthews just isn’t scoring at his usual clip. So production for the line will go down. If I have a criticism for Marner is that he needs to put himself in better shooting position. Last night I watched and he did better at being in the slot but he was usually right beside Knies instead of being on the opposite side of Knies in the slot. If he can do that I think that would do wonders for his game.

 

[hullsy47]

Last night was his best game in a few, he and Matthews were dynamite. This is a pretty good team when the best players lead by example. They left nothing on the ice, was fun to watch.

Bobby mcmann mathews and knies were all better

 

[666]

So all the lists that ESPN, Sportsnet, The Hockey News, NHL Network, and TSN who have Rantanen ranked ahead of Marner just can't understand defense either?

Your quest to gaslight the board into thinking defense is equally as valuable as offense from wingers is an entertaining one. So is some elite defensive winger who produces 20 points equally as valuable as Nylander?

I don't care about the talking heads although the guys on Prime on Monday were gushing over Marner so I guess it depends on who you listen too.

If would be difficult for a 20 point elite defensive winger to be more valuable than Nylander but it's not even close for a 90 point one.

Who is more valuable, the 27/65/92 guy who out scores the opposition significantly ALL OF TIME or the 31/42/73 guy who gets out scored significantly other than when he is with a superstar sniper. These guys play the same position on the same team.

 

[666]

This has to be Matthews lowest shooting percentage year for his career.

It is.

 

[Divine]

He's basically having the exact same season as last year.

Last year: 69GP: 26G - 59A - 85P
This year: 67GP: 21G - 62A - 83P

I don't get how people are saying he stepped it up on his contract year. If anything, I think most would prefer his higher goalscoring last year.

The only difference is last year Matthews and Nylander both had better seasons which put Marner third in scoring. This year they've both regressed so far, leaving Marner first.

At least he's breaking the trend of Leafs having career years on their contract years.

 

[ACC1224]

Bobby mcmann mathews and knies were all better

Yes, there were lots of good efforts last night, led by the top line

 

[666]

If Matthews isn’t scoring, maybe Mitch can score some goals and give Matthews some assists.

Or he could start fighting now that Reaves isn't around. Marner is an elite playmaker who plays elite defence. It has always been like this and it is what he gets paid for.

 

[francis246]

Bobby mcmann mathews and knies were all better

This is so petty, does it matter? I think as a fanbase we have gotten to a low point if we constantly have to rank who had a good game by player. The whole team was dynamite in the 3rd. Everyone was forechecking. McMann once he was moved up to line 2, had a heavy forecheck.

 

[GoonieFace]

I don't care about the talking heads although the guys on Prime on Monday were gushing over Marner so I guess it depends on who you listen too.

If would be difficult for a 20 point elite defensive winger to be more valuable than Nylander but it's not even close for a 90 point one.

Who is more valuable, the 27/65/92 guy who out scores the opposition significantly ALL OF TIME or the 31/42/73 guy who gets out scored significantly other than when he is with a superstar sniper. These guys play the same position on the same team.

Quality of linemates matter. I would guess the majority of the time Line 1 is on with McCabe and Tanev. Matthews is also an excellent defensive player. Winger defence is the easiest thing to do.

 

[IPS]

I don't care about the talking heads although the guys on Prime on Monday were gushing over Marner so I guess it depends on who you listen too.

If would be difficult for a 20 point elite defensive winger to be more valuable than Nylander but it's not even close for a 90 point one.

Who is more valuable, the 27/65/92 guy who out scores the opposition significantly ALL OF TIME or the 31/42/73 guy who gets out scored significantly other than when he is with a superstar sniper. These guys play the same position on the same team.

I think the people who actually get paid to know hockey for a living (who make the lists too) are a little more than "talking heads".

It's funny cause this is precisely the same shit that got perpetuated when Nylander was being negotiated with and Pastrnak was just getting signed with Boston. Pastrnak was apparently just a product of the Bergeron-Marchand duo and allegedly his production is equal to or worse than Willy's without them. Didn't turn out to be even remotely true. You think you have the linemate equation figured out when in reality you're nowhere even close, but you sure love to pretend you know.

 

[IPS]

Quality of linemates matter. I would guess the majority of the time Line 1 is on with McCabe and Tanev. Matthews is also an excellent defensive player. Winger defence is the easiest thing to do.

Wait a second you mean to tell me that there's 5 other players on the ice?!

 

[Sypher04]

If we are married to 34 and 16 together on the same line and none of the core 4 on the 3rd (or 2B) line, then the top 6 should be as follows:

Knies - Matthews - Marner
McMann - Tavares - Nylander

I know McMann has been good on the 3rd with Domi and Robertson as well, but I really think the second line is a lot better with some who plays a bit heavier and with Nylander having a linemate who can operate at his speed.

Figure out the bottom 6 with the rest.
Maybe even call Steeves back up and let him try to roll with the 3rd line. I’d like to see him get an extended look. I like the way he plays.

 

[Gary Nylund]

He's basically having the exact same season as last year.

Last year: 69GP: 26G - 59A - 85P
This year: 67GP: 21G - 62A - 83P

I don't get how people are saying he stepped it up on his contract year. If anything, I think most would prefer his higher goalscoring last year.

The only difference is last year Matthews and Nylander both had better seasons which put Marner third in scoring. This year they've both regressed so far, leaving Marner first.

At least he's breaking the trend of Leafs having career years on their contract years.

Maybe that was in November and some people just forgot that Marner's always productive in November, who knows?

Marner's remarkably consistent. He's a ~100 point player for 86 games, then he's about a ~40 point player after that. Of course last year he became a ~40 point player right after game 82 which isn't encouraging but whatever, he has another chance to show the world he's not a playoff wuss soon enough, we'll see what happens.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If we are married to 34 and 16 together on the same line and none of the core 4 on the 3rd (or 2B) line, then the top 6 should be as follows:

Knies - Matthews - Marner
McMann - Tavares - Nylander

I know McMann has been good on the 3rd with Domi and Robertson as well, but I really think the second line is a lot better with some who plays a bit heavier and with Nylander having a linemate who can operate at his speed.

Figure out the bottom 6 with the rest.
Maybe even call Steeves back up and let him try to roll with the 3rd line. I’d like to see him get an extended look. I like the way he plays.

I like it. I mean I've loved that 3rd line but ...