Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Antropovsky]

I am referring to the last year he was supposed to play in Toronto.

27 point pace (22 real points) playing 15 minutes a night, not sure that is worth $6.25 million, and is probably about 1/4 the player Tavares will be here, yes.

The points are terrible 3rd line/decent 4th line level, the playing time is a 2nd/3rd liner, so he should hypothetically be producing more with more ice time, but he wasn't, and that's why I say he was 4th line level.



Please use the full season, it helps my argument.

Marner's 1st and 2nd years were better than Draisaitl's, that is how he was trending better, and the trend continued into their 3rd year.

So 5'10 winger, Marner, was more comparable to 6'2 center. Rather than being compared to the 5'10 small winger (Ehlers)?

Marner had 69 points his second year. 27 were on the powerplay. Marner was tied for 37th in points in entire league.

Ehlers had 64 points his second year. 12 were on the powerplay. Ehlers was tied for 30th in points in entire league.

 

[GoonieFace]

Exactly.. why 23? Why not use 82?

Just like everyone claims Mitch is a 100 point player, but alas, have never gotten 100 points

 

[Gary Nylund]

Sure it is taken out of context. It’s Feschuk who reported it. He is notorious for this style of reporting. That does not negate his comments that there were being “lowballed” in light of what Matthews received. He also stated he wanted the same level of “respect” (for Marner) that was accorded to Matthews.

I remember that and that's the problem in a nutshell. Marner's camp demands to be on the same level as Matthews when it comes to respect (as measured by money of course) even though he's nowhere near the player that Matthews is. The fact that this organization is even considering bending over once again for this wuss is just mind boggling, not sure how else to (politely) put it.

The smart thing to do would be to move on from him, trade him and if Marner doesn't want to go you start pushing him out the door and if all else fails, you let him walk.

Unfortunately I think it's going to go something like this.

We'd like to trade you.

No, I want to stay here.

OK, here's a new contract.

And instead of a culture reset, we get another decade of irrelevance. SMH, FML.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sure it is taken out of context. It’s Feschuk who reported it. He is notorious for this style of reporting. That does not negate his comments that there were being “lowballed” in light of what Matthews received. He also stated he wanted the same level of “respect” (for Marner) that was accorded to Matthews.

Ferris literally negates it. He notes that the referenced offer was part of "a normal course of business", was "standard practice at that time of year", and they were in a good place going into the season. Of course an initial offer from a team is going to be lower relative to worth than a final contract. That's how negotiations work. The disrespect had been from Lou.

 

[notbias]

So 5'10 winger, Marner, was more comparable to 6'2 center. Rather than being compared to the 5'10 small winger (Ehlers)?

Marner had 69 points his second year. 27 were on the powerplay. Marner was tied for 37th in points in entire league.

Ehlers had 64 points his second year. 12 were on the powerplay. Ehlers was tied for 30th in points in entire league.

Was Drai playing C that year? I have no clue, but sure we can boost his value because of it.

I also assume during negotiations that height rarely comes up unless you know more than the average poster.

Ehlers can be a comparable too, he is another player who signed during that time frame, and his overall body of work is worse than Marner's, so Marner should be making a fair bit more.

Excluding PP points makes Drai's number worse too by the way, so if you are going to do it for Marner, may as well do it for him.

This is also all ignoring linemates and the defensive side of the puck, but if we only go on points up to that point of their career, Marner wins.

PPG at the time of signing (Marner's is at the potential signing time):
Ehlers: 0.66
Draisaitl: 0.72
Marner: 0.81

At the actual time of signing Marner had a 0.93 PPG.

Who is Marner's comparable? You are ignoring their career and going off a single year only. Should we be doing that on July 1st as well?

 

[francis246]

Was Drai playing C that year? I have no clue, but sure we can boost his value because of it.

I also assume during negotiations that height rarely comes up unless you know more than the average poster.

Ehlers can be a comparable too, he is another player who signed during that time frame, and his overall body of work is worse than Marner's, so Marner should be making a fair bit more.

Excluding PP points makes Drai's number worse too by the way, so if you are going to do it for Marner, may as well do it for him.

This is also all ignoring linemates and the defensive side of the puck, but if we only go on points up to that point of their career, Marner wins.

PPG at the time of signing (Marner's is at the potential signing time):
Ehlers: 0.66
Draisaitl: 0.72
Marner: 0.81

At the actual time of signing Marner had a 0.93 PPG.

Who is Marner's comparable? You are ignoring their career and going off a single year only. Should we be doing that on July 1st as well?

LOL this is actually amazing, just a beautiful post.

 

[colchar]

I remember that and that's the problem in a nutshell. Marner's camp demands to be on the same level as Matthews when it comes to respect (as measured by money of course) even though he's nowhere near the player that Matthews is. The fact that this organization is even considering bending over once again for this wuss is just mind boggling, not sure how else to (politely) put it.

You have no idea what they plan to do. All we have is speculation from alleged 'insiders'. Do not take what they say as fact until something actually happens.

The smart thing to do would be to move on from him, trade him and if Marner doesn't want to go you start pushing him out the door and if all else fails, you let him walk.

Agreed.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You have no idea what they plan to do. All we have is speculation from alleged 'insiders'. Do not take what they say as fact until something actually happens.

Agreed.

Of course. Nobody knows what will happen, I'm not taking anything as fact and I'm not making any predictions. All I can do is listen to all the noise and say what my gut feeling is and at this point, I feel like Marner will be extended. Maybe it's just paranoia, that could well be and it goes without saying that I fervently hope I end up being wrong about this.

 

[Confucius]

Of course. Nobody knows what will happen, I'm not taking anything as fact and I'm not making any predictions. All I can do is listen to all the noise and say what my gut feeling is and at this point, I feel like Marner will be extended. Maybe it's just paranoia, that could well be and it goes without saying that I fervently hope I end up being wrong about this.

lol! Some of us realized back in day 1 the most likely outcome was Mitch was being extended, some just coming to that conclusion now. Better late than never… lol!

 

[CelticDruid]

Of course. Nobody knows what will happen, I'm not taking anything as fact and I'm not making any predictions. All I can do is listen to all the noise and say what my gut feeling is and at this point, I feel like Marner will be extended. Maybe it's just paranoia, that could well be and it goes without saying that I fervently hope I end up being wrong about this.

If he gets extended I hope the contract does not include a full No movement clause. Management needs an out in case of future shit playoff performances by MM.

 

[Antropovsky]

Was Drai playing C that year? I have no clue, but sure we can boost his value because of it.

I also assume during negotiations that height rarely comes up unless you know more than the average poster.

Ehlers can be a comparable too, he is another player who signed during that time frame, and his overall body of work is worse than Marner's, so Marner should be making a fair bit more.

Excluding PP points makes Drai's number worse too by the way, so if you are going to do it for Marner, may as well do it for him.

This is also all ignoring linemates and the defensive side of the puck, but if we only go on points up to that point of their career, Marner wins.

PPG at the time of signing (Marner's is at the potential signing time):
Ehlers: 0.66
Draisaitl: 0.72
Marner: 0.81

At the actual time of signing Marner had a 0.93 PPG.

Who is Marner's comparable? You are ignoring their career and going off a single year only. Should we be doing that on July 1st as well?

You are right... it ignores alot of variables. Which is why saying "he had a 93 point pace in 23 games" is ridiculous. You are contradicting your own posts now. There is a reason "I" began introducing many more variables.

Additionally, why are you not commenting on the rest of my post? such as Ehlers was 30th in league points, and only had 12 pp points. While Marner was 37th in league points and had 27?

Doesn't meet your agenda...so just pretend it wasn't said?

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

If he gets extended I hope the contract does not include a full No movement clause. Management needs an out in case of future shit playoff performances by MM.

It will. The only way out of this mess is the players demanding trades and basically forcing a rebuild. That's how upside-down the operation in Toronto is.

 

[notbias]

You are right... it ignores alot of variables. Which is why saying "he had a 93 point pace in 23 games" is ridiculous. You are contradicting your own posts now. There is a reason I began introducing many more variables.

Additionally, why are you not commenting on the rest of my post? such as Ehlers was 30th in league points, and only had 12 pp points. While Marner was 37th in league points and had 27?

Doesn't meet your agenda...so just pretend it wasn't said?

Why are you ignoring their career up to that point and focusing on a single season?

I don't think players are signed based on a single season, do you?

I addressed the points about Ehler and Draisaitl as comparables, when you compare multiple seasons (like any normal person would), Marner looks better than both, and by a fair margin.

 

[Antropovsky]

Why are you ignoring their career up to that point and focusing on a single season?

I don't think players are signed based on a single season, do you?

I addressed the points about Ehler and Draisaitl as comparables, when you compare multiple seasons (like any normal person would), Marner looks better than both, and by a fair margin.

So they should get contracts based on 23 game samples but not 14... but shouldn't get contracts based on single seasons? Your posts are confusing me.

 

[notbias]

So they should get contracts based on 23 game samples but not 14... but shouldn't get contracts based on single seasons?

They should get contracts based on their entire ELC (can more heavily weigh more recent years based on development)...

You are right... it ignores alot of variables. Which is why saying "he had a 93 point pace in 23 games" is ridiculous. You are contradicting your own posts now. There is a reason "I" began introducing many more variables.

Additionally, why are you not commenting on the rest of my post? such as Ehlers was 30th in league points, and only had 12 pp points. While Marner was 37th in league points and had 27?

Doesn't meet your agenda...so just pretend it wasn't said?

Also, you keep bringing up Elhers... he was #4 on his team for points when he signed his contract, and Marner was #1, that matters too.

 

[danny90]

Well, if there is a great offer, pretty sure MM would had been traded by now.

Do you honestly think that if Utah comes in with the 100mil extension for MM, then have Keller, Geekie and two 1st rounders.
Pretty sure all parties would had said yes.
And then have the pending physical till July 2 to make it official, but would announce it bc it brings buzz to Utah before the draft and into the off season.

Why would Marner say yes? Utah, Calgary, Edmonton are going to be the top of the no list.

You are right... it ignores alot of variables. Which is why saying "he had a 93 point pace in 23 games" is ridiculous. You are contradicting your own posts now. There is a reason "I" began introducing many more variables.

Additionally, why are you not commenting on the rest of my post? such as Ehlers was 30th in league points, and only had 12 pp points. While Marner was 37th in league points and had 27?

Doesn't meet your agenda...so just pretend it wasn't said?

i think the point is a single year isn’t used to determine a players contract or at least shouldn’t.

 

[Notsince67]

Quite obvious you still don't know who Mitch Marner is.

Confusing, consider how much you post to support him.

He is the guy the Leafs are reported to be making an offer on soon

 

[BrannigansLaw]

He is the guy the Leafs are reported to be making an offer on soon

it’s also been “reported” the Leafs are pushing hard to trade him lol. Does your blind lust for Marner make you just ignore those?

 

[Atomos2]

I’m disliking this kid more and more with every day of this off-season. Marner needs to realize he’s not wanted.

 

[Notsince67]

And you probably won't get an answer.

A really smart poster laid it out during that time period. This has been litigated time and time again and even with the advantage of hindsight, people didn't think 8.5MM was a good idea.
This goes to show that some people's foresight are far superior to people analyzing the past.
Here it is

Marner's Next Contract

Just over pay him. 8M AAV all in signing bonus. If he wants more, I think he has to be moved. Yeah...he aint worth more than 8MM if he drops 90-100 p0ints next year. Give your head a shake. How easy do you think it is to find the Marners of the world? Give me a break

forums.hfboards.com

 

[DarkKnight]

Just like everyone claims Mitch is a 100 point player, but alas, have never gotten 100 points

I mean 97 points in 72 games, how dare anyone make such a wild extrapolation, based on simple reason and fair minded perspectives. The horror!

And then to quibble with it too….

 

[Notsince67]

it’s also been “reported” the Leafs are pushing hard to trade him lol. Does your blind lust for Marner make you just ignore those?

I would put Eliott above most of the other clickbait

 

[ToneDog]

A really smart poster laid it out during that time period. This has been litigated time and time again and even with the advantage of hindsight, people didn't think 8.5MM was a good idea.
This goes to show that some people's foresight are far superior to people analyzing the past.
Here it is

Marner's Next Contract

Just over pay him. 8M AAV all in signing bonus. If he wants more, I think he has to be moved. Yeah...he aint worth more than 8MM if he drops 90-100 p0ints next year. Give your head a shake. How easy do you think it is to find the Marners of the world? Give me a break

forums.hfboards.com

The guy who replied to you was pretty prophetic and with Marner @ 9-10. Now we think we can win with 4 losers making more than $11m and no true #1G. LOL.

Explain to me how the team wins with

Matthews + Tavares - 22M
Marner 9-10M
Nylander 7M

That's potentially 39M in four guys. Half the salary cap. I think we would be fine if they each took a bit less to allow an extra 3-4 M AAV to allow another top 4 D.

That would also mean Gardiner is gone so not only does the team NOT have the money to improve the defense it gets considerably worse.

Marner would return a top pairing guy and a solid depth piece I think OR can be used in a package to get a Seth Jones type trade.

 

[Notsince67]

I mean 97 points in 72 games, how dare anyone make such a wild extrapolation, based on simple reason and fair minded perspectives. The horror!

And then to quibble with it too….

Flat earthers have similar views because they can't see past the horizon.

The guy who replied to you was pretty prophetic and with Marner @ 9-10. Now we think we can win with 4 losers making more than $11m and no true #1G. LOL.

Explain to me how the team wins with

Matthews + Tavares - 22M
Marner 9-10M
Nylander 7M

That's potentially 39M in four guys. Half the salary cap. I think we would be fine if they each took a bit less to allow an extra 3-4 M AAV to allow another top 4 D.

That would also mean Gardiner is gone so not only does the team NOT have the money to improve the defense it gets considerably worse.

Marner would return a top pairing guy and a solid depth piece I think OR can be used in a package to get a Seth Jones type trade.

Lets not conflate issues here. Putting out that an ask of 8.5 x8 was unreasonable at that time seems a bit silly now, doesn't it?

 

[Gallagbi]

The guy who replied to you was pretty prophetic and with Marner @ 9-10. Now we think we can win with 4 losers making more than $11m and no true #1G. LOL.

Explain to me how the team wins with

Matthews + Tavares - 22M
Marner 9-10M
Nylander 7M

That's potentially 39M in four guys. Half the salary cap. I think we would be fine if they each took a bit less to allow an extra 3-4 M AAV to allow another top 4 D.

That would also mean Gardiner is gone so not only does the team NOT have the money to improve the defense it gets considerably worse.

Marner would return a top pairing guy and a solid depth piece I think OR can be used in a package to get a Seth Jones type trade.

Timing is interesting, we upgraded the D pretty substantially with Muzzin and Brodie coming over the next 24 months. Brodie fizzled out this year, but he was a legit top 4 D until this year, same with Muzzin up until the minute he stopped playing.

Jones was good value for about 3 seasons between the Marner contract kicking in and his current overpayment where he's arguably a top 5 worst contract in the game