Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[ToneDog]

A mistake for whom?
You better believe that if he hits the open market, he's going to have a ton of takers and teams willing to splash big on him.

They can have him. We can't win with the 3 amigos, let alone all 3 making $35+m. Stop the insanity.

 

[Trapper]

They can have him. We can't win with the 3 amigos, let alone all 3 making $35+m. Stop the insanity.

If Marner thinks it’s bad in the media now, wait until he asks for 12.5/13, drags out the contract negotiations with his agent and it’s revealed he wouldn’t waive (if asked).

 

[ACC1224]

Jonas & Mirtle both more or less confirmed that he was open to moving last summer, even as the NMC kicked in. I do wonder how much of that equation has changed this summer, and frankly, how much of a prick Ferris is prepared to be for a client that clearly needs a change of scenery.


We just don't know where this is going to go, but I do wonder what appetite the team has to resign him - in a hypothetical world, getting out from under Tavares' $11m probably means you could, at least on paper, spend on a Marner extension, but what belief do you have that this guy can punch through?

Ultimately, I believe extending him at the right price is the much better play than losing him for nothing - I've never believed in the idea that $10.9M in cap space is this super valuable thing, because you still need to spend it, and that nets you another Klingberg and Bertuzzi.

Was this team one Klingberg and one more Bertuzzi away from doing anything in the post-season? Absolutely not.

I think the 'open to moving' is more an attention grab than anything concrete. I'd take 'open' to mean he may have accepted it could happen, as it was out of his control, not that he was in any way accepting of it.

One minute Mirtle says he's blackballed and next he knows the players thoughts? Not buying it.

Yeah I don’t care about his gods comment like some do. That was just Marner being dumb with the media as usual. I just dislike his game and general attitude altogether. If he played like Brayden Point for example, my opinion of him would be vastly different.

Some of his defenders on here just immediately assume that people are “haters” for no apparent reason.



Would be a massive mistake to bring him back again. His time has run out. Arguably before this year too.

There are lots of apparent reasons to think that, of course that doesn't apply to everyone.

 

[seanlinden]

Jonas & Mirtle both more or less confirmed that he was open to moving last summer, even as the NMC kicked in. I do wonder how much of that equation has changed this summer, and frankly, how much of a prick Ferris is prepared to be for a client that clearly needs a change of scenery.


We just don't know where this is going to go, but I do wonder what appetite the team has to resign him - in a hypothetical world, getting out from under Tavares' $11m probably means you could, at least on paper, spend on a Marner extension, but what belief do you have that this guy can punch through?

Ultimately, I believe extending him at the right price is the much better play than losing him for nothing - I've never believed in the idea that $10.9M in cap space is this super valuable thing, because you still need to spend it, and that nets you another Klingberg and Bertuzzi.

Was this team one Klingberg and one more Bertuzzi away from doing anything in the post-season? Absolutely not.

To be fair... maybe?

If we look at what all the "competitive" stars around the league currently make....

Matthews was basically "right" at $11.64m. If MacKinnon is $12.6m, and McDavid is $12.5m, Matthews probably should be $12m.... so splitting hairs.

Marner was overpaid at $10.9m. His comparables are probably Sebastian Aho at $8.5m, Mikko Rantanen at $9.5m. Leon Draisaitl at $8.5m. Kirill Kaprisov at $9.5m. His "right" number was probably $9m.

Tavares was vastly overpaid at $11m this year. His "right number", probably around $7m..

Nylander was faily underpaid this year at $7m. His "right number", proably in the $9.5m range.

Overall, take the differences and you had about $3.1m in "bad" money to those 4.... so to answer your question...were we another Tyler Bertuzzi or John Klingberg away from winning the cup? probably not.

But, take Ryan O'Reilly back as the 3rd line C instead of Pontus Holmberg.... and have the Brodie/Klingberg moeny spent a lot better than unused LTIR and healthy scratch, and we're almost certainly a heck of a lot closer.

The problem for next year, is that now you've got Matthews about $1.25m into bad money. Nylander $2.5m into "bad" money. Marner still $1.5m into bad money, and Tavares, probably $4.5m into bad money. That's nearly $10m in "bad money" at the top of your roster.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I think the 'open to moving' is more an attention grab than anything concrete. I'd take 'open' to mean he may have accepted it could happen, as it was out of his control, not that he was in any way accepting of it.

One minute Mirtle says he's blackballed and next he knows the players thoughts? Not buying it.

Great point

 

[Arzak]

Matthews is now Selke level forward. We can lose the other one

 

[Tak7]

But, take Ryan O'Reilly back as the 3rd line C instead of Pontus Holmberg.... and have the Brodie/Klingberg moeny spent a lot better than unused LTIR and healthy scratch, and we're almost certainly a heck of a lot closer.

Closer to what...? 4 wins? 5 again?

The point is, they aren't close, and they aren't a John Klingberg and a Bertuzzi away from getting 13 more wins.

I think the 'open to moving' is more an attention grab than anything concrete. I'd take 'open' to mean he may have accepted it could happen, as it was out of his control, not that he was in any way accepting of it.

One minute Mirtle says he's blackballed and next he knows the players thoughts? Not buying it.

It seems like they were told that Marner was open to it, from people around the Leafs, though as you said, the timing of that relative to the NMC kicking in is unknown. They at least framed it in a way that suggested that it was a possibility.

I personally have no reason to doubt their info or knowledge - they've normally been right about this stuff. Worth noting that Kypreos had a similar angle too

 

[Tak7]

They can have him. We can't win with the 3 amigos, let alone all 3 making $35+m. Stop the insanity.

While I understand the sentiment, Marner walking for nothing is probably worst case scenario considering where we are.

Even a subpar trade that nets you SOME return, is more beneficial than that. I'd even consider a short term extension.

You might lose Marner, but then you also lose someone who is capable of putting up 100 points, playing in all situations, etc. I understand his playoff lack of success is defining here, but losing him for nothing potentially harms "the whole cruise control into the playoffs every year" thing they have going on currenty

Perhaps. The cap space is extremely valuable is where I'd strongly disagree.

Was this team another: Domi + McCabe + Benoit + DeWar from winning that round? Absolutely. We'd still have money to spare.

I'm not saying cap space isn't valuable, but I am saying creating that big of a hole in the lineup and needing to fill it with multiple different pieces, is very hard to get right - and no, I don't think we were another Domi, McCabe, Benoit, or Dewar away from getting it done.

 

[Racer88]

Honestly as long as they add a real top 4 D and keep hitting everything that moves I couldn't care less what 3 amigos make in their prime.

True but it’s hard to afford premium D and goaltenders when the 3/4 amigo’s eat so much of the pie

 

[Racer88]

The talk that Ferris has a history of walking his clients to UFA is useful, but the media is interpreting it the wrong way. I don't think this means that Marner will not waive his NMC and ride out the last year in Toronto no matter what.

This basically just means (and Dreger/Ferris alluded to this as well on recent pod) that Marner likely would only be willing to get traded to a contender. Said contender would also have to be fine in trading for him knowing he could only be a full season rental.

If the Leafs make it clear to Marner they will not even engage his camp in extension negotiations, wouldn't Marner rather play out his contract year with a contender he might have a chance of re signing with? Instead of a team who (hypothetically) doesn't even engage his camp?

What team that is already a contender would give anything or even take on a player as expensive as Marner and with such a dismal reputation for disappearing in big moments or when the going gets tough

 

[Tak7]

If the Leafs make it clear to Marner they will not even engage his camp in extension negotiations, wouldn't Marner rather play out his contract year with a contender he might have a chance of re signing with? Instead of a team who (hypothetically) doesn't even engage his camp?

I could honestly see it going both ways.

In one scenario, he might choose to leave a place where he's unwanted, and try to work with the team to get a deal to another contender in a process that he has full control over.

OR

He might continue to be fully motivated by money, and use the final year of his deal to play another 82 games with Matthews, buoyed by a new coach bump, put up 115 points, give the playoffs one last shot with the freedom of knowing he's not part of this team's legacy moving forward, and ride that into free agency where he can pick and choose his destination more freely and likely get more money in the process too.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

While I understand the sentiment, Marner walking for nothing is probably worst case scenario considering where we are.

Even a subpar trade that nets you SOME return, is more beneficial than that. I'd even consider a short term extension.

You might lose Marner, but then you also lose someone who is capable of putting up 100 points, playing in all situations, etc. I understand his playoff lack of success is defining here, but losing him for nothing potentially harms "the whole cruise control into the playoffs every year" thing they have going on currenty


I'm not saying cap space isn't valuable, but I am saying creating that big of a hole in the lineup and needing to fill it with multiple different pieces, is very hard to get right - and no, I don't think we were another Domi, McCabe, Benoit, or Dewar away from getting it done.

Don't you think we should try rather than forcing something that has failed 8 times?

 

[Tak7]

Don't you think we should try rather than forcing something that has failed 8 times?

100% think we will try.

99% convinced he won't waive.

So, with the trade option off the table, is it better to lose him for nothing, or extend him, and try and augment the roster around them with the JT money, and re-assess down the road?

 

[Racer88]

Matthews is now Selke level forward. We can lose the other one

Willy is now a stone cold assassin in the playoffs so we can afford to lose the other two

 

[ToneDog]

While I understand the sentiment, Marner walking for nothing is probably worst case scenario considering where we are.

Even a subpar trade that nets you SOME return, is more beneficial than that. I'd even consider a short term extension.

You might lose Marner, but then you also lose someone who is capable of putting up 100 points, playing in all situations, etc. I understand his playoff lack of success is defining here, but losing him for nothing potentially harms "the whole cruise control into the playoffs every year" thing they have going on currenty


I'm not saying cap space isn't valuable, but I am saying creating that big of a hole in the lineup and needing to fill it with multiple different pieces, is very hard to get right - and no, I don't think we were another Domi, McCabe, Benoit, or Dewar away from getting it done.

My preferences:

1. Trade Marner for market value
2 Trade Marner for less than market value
3. Let Marner walk for nothing

Signing him for $12+m is suicide. We do not need him to make the playoffs and if he is a ghost in the playoffs, let him be a ghost for some other team.

 

[Egghead1999]

I have no issue matching Nylanders contract of 11.5 x 8. That would be my incentive to keep Marner happy. The thing is I would not be offering a NMC. If it had to be in it, I would do NMC in years 6 7 8 and Limited beforehand.

You could also explore a year 1 2 3 NMC or similar if you really want to make this core work. Seems foolish to do that though.

Add. My reasoning for only matching Nylander is his contract was under on value to start. Marners was over. This balances things and doesn't create animosity.

Doubt he gets 12m on thw open market. These POs have been pretty obvious to the league.

Why? He has been a no-show in the playoffs lately. If you want to keep him happy and hope he will learn playoff hockey somehow, you, in fact, are the one who does not know the hard truth yet. MM does not stand playoff hockey (don't know why, he was fine in the first few seasons). He is just another Gaudreau now.

 

[WillNy29]

For one, Ovechkin came to play in the playoffs. For two, the problem isn't just Marner itself, it's the whole core but Marner's the only one we might be able to move on right now and it is 100% clear this core is done.

lmao no he didn't the revisionist takes are hilarious. People spent years bemoaning Backstorm and Ovie as playoff chokers

 

[Egghead1999]

lmao no he didn't the revisionist takes are hilarious. People spent years bemoaning Backstorm and Ovie as playoff chokers

c'mon, you better check out Ovie playoff state. playoff chokers do not mean a playoff no-show

 

[Mugzy97]

I know I’m of the minority but I want Mitch to stay. He’s a phenomenal hockey player and does everything so well. The team will never get back the value Mitch brings in any trade.

Why has Mitch become the whipping boy over Tavares? That doesn’t make sense to me. Tavares makes more money, is supposed to be the leader, and is much worse.

 

[PromisedLand]

I cannot stand steve dangle because I find him really annoying but.... gotta agree with what he said here

 

[Drytoast]

We are now at a place where his 11M in cap space is more valuable than he is. He is a net negative on the ice in the games that matter. Shy in the corners and a parameter player. Can't have that.

 

[PromisedLand]

saw this on twitter and found it to be absolutely HILARIOUS

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

100% think we will try.

99% convinced he won't waive.

So, with the trade option off the table, is it better to lose him for nothing, or extend him, and try and augment the roster around them with the JT money, and re-assess down the road?

If our options are overpay 12M+ or lose for nothing, I'm choosing the latter.

Price matching a MacKinnon contract without playoff results is not palatable in any fashion. Winning matters a lot and it's time we act like it.

 

[Nineteen67]

I was just out welding a bracket my bushhog and daydreaming about what they need and hit me that maybe TTOE is a good fit for Marner.
A young D, Cuafield and that 5th pick who could turn into Iginla.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

I know I’m of the minority but I want Mitch to stay. He’s a phenomenal hockey player and does everything so well. The team will never get back the value Mitch brings in any trade.

Why has Mitch become the whipping boy over Tavares? That doesn’t make sense to me. Tavares makes more money, is supposed to be the leader, and is much worse.

Tavares was always going to be a depreciating asset in the final two seasons of his contract. It sucks but we can't be surprised when a 33-year-old player doesn't play as good as he did in his prime. He's going 100% but it's just not happening like it did in the past.

At worst, you wait a year and he's gone anyway or signed for way less.

The one thing I do feel Tavares should be criticized for is his leadership. He shouldn't have the captaincy any longer because a player that comes out and says "we were close" after this many losses is out of his mind as a leader. That type of mindset isn't motivating anyone.

Now in comparison, Marner is in his prime and will easily ask for 12M+ on his next contract. Marner is a good player but in the playoffs not even close to his current value let alone what he's going to ask for in the future.

In my opinion, serious change will come when both are removed and that $22M cap space (more if Marner re-signs) is used elsewhere including any assets that come in a potential Marner trade. No doubt it's going to hurt value-wise and that's why they keep dragging this core along convincing themselves they are close when they're not.

It's better to change things up than just keep doing the same thing until everyone is aged out.