Mitch Marner Offseason Continued

[Stonehands1990]

You keep dwelling on Marner's ELC years. I am not missing anything. Marner can't carry Kane's jockstrap when it comes to big games. You guaranteeing Marner will outproduce Kane is quite a stretch. Maybe wait until Marner helps us get out of round #1 before comparing him to probably the best American hockey player to lace them up.

Regular season pts I could see it. Kane drove whatever line he was on, Marner gets to ride shot gun with the best goal scorer since Ovechkin

Toews offensively has nothing on Matthews. Kane’s best offensive year was with Panarin

 

[Notsince67]

And if you apply the same formula using Eichel as a comparable it’s 10.8 x 8 years. When Matthews expires he will be the highest paid player in the league. We kinda got hosed there

I really like Matthews. I do think that the contract issues escalated.
Fact is that if people have a pressing issue about Marner'ss contract is isolation, I'm left confused by the lack of attention placed on the history of the contract debacle.
1. Dubas announced that Lou taught him to take his time on important things like contracts.
2. Concerned with Nylander demanding parity with Marner, he lowballed an offer below 8MM to Marner for term after marner came off the second part of his season scoring at 1.13 points per game and knowing full well that he would be playing with Tavares for a year more if he didnt sign him early.
3. He caved on Nylander, paying him better than a pastrnak contract (who far outperformed him) for less term (5.6 years vs 6 years). He was closer to Ehlers (who signed for 7 years.)...Cap adjusted, term adjusted and holdout term considered....6 MM
4. He overpaid Mathhews. If 5 years is the term he wanted, then he shouldnt have made more than 10MM. 11ish for 6 years.
5. They then overpaid Marner. Fair value would have been just north of 10 for 6 years.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Fair enough.

Marner has shown in the past (ohl playoff mvp, memorial cup mvp, 2018 playoffs vs boston) that he can be impactful and produce during the PO.

I'm glad you mentioned matthews because somehow he escapes almost all critism yet marner is the most hated player.

Hey I’d love nothing more than for M&M to prove me wrong and tear up the playoffs next year. But I’ve got no faith that they can given how they’ve played over the past three playoffs, especially in do or die elimination games.

 

[Notsince67]

Patrick Kane went to the conference finals in Year 2 of their ELC's (2008-09) beating the Flames in 6 games in the first round, the Canucks in 6 games in the second round and then losing to the defending cup champion Red Wings in the third in 5 games.

Patrick Kane scored 14 points in 16 games that year.

1st year was 2010-2011
2nd year was 2011-2012.

 

[Stonehands1990]

I really like Matthews. I do think that the contract issues escalated.
Fact is that if people have a pressing issue about Marner'ss contract is isolation, I'm left confused by the lack of attention placed on the history of the contract debacle.
1. Dubas announced that Lou taught him to take his time on important things like contracts.
2. Concerned with Nylander demanding parity with Marner, he lowballed an offer below 8MM to Marner for term after marner came off the second part of his season scoring at 1.13 points per game and knowing full well that he would be playing with Tavares for a year more if he didnt sign him early.
3. He caved on Nylander, paying him better than a pastrnak contract (who far outperformed him) for less term (5.6 years vs 6 years). He was closer to Ehlers (who signed for 7 years.)...Cap adjusted, term adjusted and holdout term considered....6 MM
4. He overpaid Mathhews. If 5 years is the term he wanted, then he shouldnt have made more than 10MM. 11ish for 6 years.
5. They then overpaid Marner. Fair value would have been just north of 10 for 6 years.

Personally I think Kane’s 1st deal was an excellent comparable for Marner. Adjusted for cap inflation 9.0 x 5

 

[Stonehands1990]

1st year was 2010-2011
2nd year was 2011-2012.

Kane was drafted 1st OA in 2007
07-08 rookie year

 

[Stephen]

1st year was 2010-2011
2nd year was 2011-2012.

Patrick Kane's rookie year was 2007-08 and his second year was 2008-09. Won the cup on the last year of his ELC in 2009-10.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Fair enough.

Marner has shown in the past (ohl playoff mvp, memorial cup mvp, 2018 playoffs vs boston) that he can be impactful and produce during the PO.

I'm glad you mentioned matthews because somehow he escapes almost all critism yet marner is the most hated player.

junior hockey means absolutely nothing at this point lol

Matthews was over PPG against Columbus so I guess that one series proves he can be impactful during the PO as well by your logic

Matthews gets less criticism because he's been better than Marner over the last two playoffs and is a Hart nominee, this isn't difficult. He's not throwing the puck over the glass without pressure and looking so scared. He's just been normal bad, not unfathomably bad.

 

[Notsince67]

You keep dwelling on Marner's ELC years. I am not missing anything. Marner can't carry Kane's jockstrap when it comes to big games. You guaranteeing Marner will outproduce Kane is quite a stretch. Maybe wait until Marner helps us get out of round #1 before comparing him to probably the best American hockey player to lace them up.

You cant compare players without a cohorted reference.
What did Kane do in 2010-11 and 2011-12 which represents the first 2 years of his rfa?

 

[Notsince67]

Patrick Kane's rookie year was 2007-08 and his second year was 2008-09. Won the cup on the last year of his ELC in 2009-10.

That isnt what you said. and a contract is set for future performance expectations.
You want to bitch and moan about Marner after he signed his contract....what the hell did Kane do his first 2 years into his rfa?

 

[Notsince67]

Kane was drafted 1st OA in 2007
07-08 rookie year

Lordy...does anyone look at Cap friendly to get a sense when his rfa contact began?

 

[ToneDog]

You cant compare players without a cohorted reference.
What did Kane do in 2010-11 and 2011-12 which represents the first 2 years of his rfa?

No idea but OK Marner > Kane in the beginning. Marner now has a high mountain to climb if he wants to be in the same conversation with Kane career wise. Leafs have not won a SC in 54 years. Marner needs to win at least one to be in the conversation.

 

[ToneDog]

Eat crow for what? I’ve no doubt that Mitch will put up 90-100 points next season if fully healthy. He can win the Art Ross for all I care, it won’t f***ing matter if he’s completely ineffective in the playoffs again.

Same goes for Matthews, the man could win the Rocket with 65+ goals and I wouldn’t give a flying f*** if he’s shut down just as easily in the playoffs again.

This assumes this shit team can even make the playoffs next season, which I’ve got some serious doubts about.

Do not think McDavid is doing cartwheels because he won another Art Ross and probably another MVP and he scored a few goals in the playoffs playing with a terrible Oilers team ??

 

[Throw More Waffles]

That isnt what you said. and a contract is set for future performance expectations.
You want to bitch and moan about Marner after he signed his contract....what the hell did Kane do his first 2 years into his rfa?

Most here were fine with Marner's regular season this year. The vibe from most was "He's a little overpaid but who cares, he's amazing." It's the 2nd straight year of disappearing in the playoffs that made everyone FINALLY wake up to just how horrible his contract is.

I assure you everyone would be just a little more patient with Marner and his contract if he (lol) won a freaking cup 2 years ago after scoring a remarkable 28 points in 22 games.

If we're following the Kane timeline, Marner should win a cup next year, as well as the Conn Smythe.

 

[Stephen]

That isnt what you said. and a contract is set for future performance expectations.
You want to bitch and moan about Marner after he signed his contract....what the hell did Kane do his first 2 years into his rfa?

When you say "2 years into his RFA" are you referring to the 2 years sandwiched between the years he won Stanley Cups? Odd comparison.

 

[egd27]

Great. Now why are we talking about trading Marner over everyone else?

Because:

1. JT has an NMC
2. Moving 88 won't clear enough cap to make it worthwhile, and he's a hero at the moment
3. Most are too afraid to suggest trading AM34

Therefore, Marner it is.

 

[ER89]

Usually players who do well in junior playoffs do well in nhl playoffs.

Mackinnon crushed qmjhl PO and memorial cup. Hes been dominant in nhl PO as well.

Marner will do the same, I have no doubts. He showed in 2018 vs boston that he can be a big game player. He was the best skater on the ice that series.

But who am I to stop the mitch hate train. Carry on full steam ahead! You'll be eating a healthy does of crow next season though.

A healthy dose of crow? Oh as if its so much to expect for an 11m to actually show up and you know.. Do his job? Why would I eat crow for that IF he does that.

Yes because mack did it marner will do it a horrible argument with the sample size of literally one. Nice.

 

[Notsince67]

No idea but OK Marner > Kane in the beginning. Marner now has a high mountain to climb if he wants to be in the same conversation with Kane career wise. Leafs have not won a SC in 54 years. Marner needs to win at least one to be in the conversation.

Fair...but let me put it into perspective for you.
It is the end of the 2011-2012 season for the blackhawks after paying Kane and Toews a kings ransom relative to the cap.
Where do you think the logic of this forum would take it in such a situation?
TRADE GREEDY KANE?
Petulant lazy kane?
Greedy Kane?
Lets trade Kane for Dustin Brown?

 

[Stephen]

Lordy...does anyone look at Cap friendly to get a sense when his rfa contact began?

It's not a strong comparison when Patrick Kane was fresh off a Stanley Cup win exiting his ELC. You think Marner would be catching flack if he had brought us a cup in 2019?

 

[ToneDog]

Fair...but let me put it into perspective for you.
It is the end of the 2011-2012 season for the blackhawks after paying Kane and Toews a kings ransom relative to the cap.
Where do you think the logic of this forum would take it in such a situation?
TRADE GREEDY KANE?
Petulant lazy kane?
Greedy Kane?
Lets trade Kane for Dustin Brown?

Might be more trade Toews because Kane > Toews but not for Dustin Brown (most are saying Eichel or Jones for Marner) , although Kane did have some off ice issues and Toews kept him in check.

 

[keonsbitterness]

You don't pay for assists in the NHL.

A good GM doesn't sign that Marner deal.

If he wanted that money I assume he wanted out.

More like he assumed he could get it.

 

[Notsince67]

When you say "2 years into his RFA" are you referring to the 2 years sandwiched between the years he won Stanley Cups? Odd comparison.

No...I'm comparing it to the like years to which people claim Marner is so overpaid.
I'm pointing out the pay for performance that is relavent.
Truth is there is no evidence that Marner will underperform what Kane did.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Fair...but let me put it into perspective for you.
It is the end of the 2011-2012 season for the blackhawks after paying Kane and Toews a kings ransom relative to the cap.
Where do you think the logic of this forum would take it in such a situation?
TRADE GREEDY KANE?
Petulant lazy kane?
Greedy Kane?
Lets trade Kane for Dustin Brown?

We would still be gushing over our cup victory from two years prior. Imagine being upset at your star player being average in the playoffs for 2 years after he carried us to a cup.

What if Kane and co. had never even won a single playoff round and he was mediocre his first 2 rfa postseasons? There would be legitimate talk of changing things up. Just like there currently are here.

 

[Stephen]

No...I'm comparing it to the like years to which people claim Marner is so overpaid.
I'm pointing out the pay for performance that is relavent.
Truth is there is no evidence that Marner will underperform what Kane did.

I actually wonder why comparisons to Kane and Point even being made with Marner at this point. After all, we’re talking about players who won Stanley Cups playing pivotal roles very early in their careers who actually enjoy big games.

Johnny Gaudreau is probably a worst case and unflattering comparison but his struggles and play style and contract amount would be a more apt comparison.

 

[Notsince67]

It's not a strong comparison when Patrick Kane was fresh off a Stanley Cup win exiting his ELC. You think Marner would be catching flack if he had brought us a cup in 2019?

So here it is.
You theorize that the methods to determine Marner's Salary relative to Kane is faulty. We go 2 years into a contract and the evidence indicates that you were wrong yet even though Marner outperformed Kane, you continue to pursue your model which doesnt seem to work.

Do you argue that a weatherman is still right after forecasting the wrong weather? Talk about process all you will....maybe Marner was lucky or Kane, unlucky, but you don't really have a leg to stand on until results prove this to be the case and unfortunately, neither of us can see the future. We can prognosticate at will but so far its team Marner 2 vs team kane 0. Maybe next year we see some evidence that you are correct.