Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VII | The Saga Continues

[Stephen]

Yea, you really have to look at where guys finished in the scoring race to account for differences between years.

Marner's last two seasons he finished 39th and 11th in scoring (11th was while playing with Tavares).

Gaudreau's two seasons before signing he finished 33rd and 6th (playing with a ~60 point C at the time).
Kucherov's two seasons before signing he finished 5th and 3rd (in one of those seasons Stamkos was injured virtually all year and Point hadn't broken out yet).
Kane's two seasons before signing he finished 40th and 9th (was a year younger than Marner).
Stamkos two seasons before signing he finished 5th both times (was a year younger than Marner).
etc.

Factoring in age (as a negative against Marner when using Kane/Stamkos as comparisons, but a positive for Marner when comparing to Gaudreau), I'd say his contract should be somewhere between the Kane/Stamkos contracts and the Gaudreau contract. Kane and Stamkos signed for 11.09%/11.66% of the cap respectively on 5 year deals, and Gaudreau for 9.25% on a six year deal.

So something like 10% on a six year deal would be more than fair (which would be 8.15M over 6 years). The media has blown things so far out of proportion with him for the last year though, that a number like that isn't even remotely part of the conversation.

The Stamkos contract (11.66% of the cap) which he received for finishing 5th in league scoring in back-to-back years at a younger age than Marner is today - would be 9.5M under an 81.5M cap, just to give some context for the ABSURD requests for ~11M.

When comparing Magic Mitch to Patrick Kane, we shouldn’t be looking at scoring race so much as the fact that Patrick Kane led the Chicago Blackhawks to their first Stanley Cup since 1961 on his ELC. And even then, Kane signed his $10.5 million deal on his third contract when he had already won 3x cups.

Imagine for a moment all the excitement Toronto had for Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors and what it would have meant if Marner was actually leading the Leafs to a championship. Then his salary demands would make a little more sense.

 

[MyBudJT]

I think Kane is the perfect example for Marner, contract wise and career wise.

People expecting Marner to continue scoring over 90 points per season will be disappointed in him because he won't be doing that. It's tough to put up those kind of #'s consistently.

Fun fact: Eric Staal is the only player that scored >90 points by his U22 season (last 25 years) to not go on to score >90 points in his U23 season.

 

[Menzinger]

I don't know why people are so upset if Marner decideds to explore other options. It really isn't all that much different than the Stamkos thing a few years ago... I realize Stamkos was an unrestricted free agent, but he explored other avenues, and crawled back to Tampa with his tail between his legs, and ended up taking their offer.

Name another RFA who has behaved this way- particularly publicly soliciting offersheets. Its essentially unprecedented behavior we're seeing.

 

[Pi]

Fun fact: Eric Staal is the only player that scored >90 points by his U22 season (last 25 years) to not go on to score >90 points in his U23 season.

Are you suggesting that Marner will score 90+ points next year? He very well may if he plays for the Leafs but if he's playing for a different team where he's the main guy, I don't see him putting up 90 points.

 

[MyBudJT]

Name another RFA who has behaved this way- particularly publicly soliciting offersheets. Its essentially unprecedented behavior we're seeing.

What 'way' has Marner behaved, exactly? So far, everything we're hereing is speculation, because its the Toronto spotlight.

 

[Faltorvo]

Yes, which is why teams very very rarely sign offersheets. Because by definition you have to overpay, otherwise the other team would match, and then on top of that you have to give up picks.

My point is that IF he signs an offersheet, that's the context we'd be dealing with. There's not really any incentive for him to sign an offersheet for 5 years X 9M, because he can likely already get that from us.

The only offer sheet he will sign is the top end offer they are looking for, like a 11.5 6y deal.

 

[MyBudJT]

Are you suggesting that Marner will score 90+ points next year? He very well may if he plays for the Leafs but if he's playing for a different team where he's the main guy, I don't see him putting up 90 points.

I'd be shocked if he didn't. A competent power play system alone will improve his scoring 15 points.

 

[Stephen]

I think David Poile said that when he matched the offer on Shea Weber he knew he would trade him one day. The fact that it went down the offer sheet route meant the player wasn’t 100% about the organization. A few years later he pulled the trigger.

The fact that Marner would go and seek meetings for potential offer sheets would already be too much for me personally. Especially a couple of days after the Leafs pay such a heavy price to clear room for him and then he makes a public statement about how sorry he is to see Marleau go. If he goes down that road, the clock starts ticking on his departure even if nothing comes of it or if the Leafs match.

I know business is business but there’s an inconsistency there that I wouldn’t be able to walk back from.

 

[Walshy7]

I won't complain if Kadri is traded but he won't get us the return we need which is a quality RHD and cap space.

I think he will get a top 4 dman. He is a very nicely priced 2c. Any team in the league would take kadri over hayes wouldn’t they? I’d have thought so. Kadri Ian great for us to keep as a 3c but teams with less c depth would value him pretty highly

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I think he will get a top 4 dman. He is a very nicely priced 2c. Any team in the league would take kadri over hayes wouldn’t they? I’d have thought so. Kadri Ian great for us to keep as a 3c but teams with less c depth would value him pretty highly

You and Pi are ignoring the "cap space" portion of my argument. We need it.

 

[Menzinger]

I do agree, but not nylander levels yet but also marner hasn’t gone as far yet so at equivalent stages of negotiations I do agree vitriol is similar

I was one suggesting marner wouldn’t receive same vitriol. But it is noticeable more than a few of the posters ripping nylander are advocating paying marner whatever he wants. I won’t name names because I’m sick of arguing with them.

Absolutley it is.

Its tbr ame folks who claimed that those who felt Nylander was worth his contract were putting player above team are now acting as if it's the greatest insult in Leafs history if Dubas doesnt make Marner the highest paid winger of all time.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I suggest you read this article Let's talk about Mitch Marner

I probably the first person in line to dislike the author, but it's a good deep look at Mitch Marner, and how he compares to other players who played their ELC in the cap era.


Also, scoring this season across the league was higher than all of the previous 25 years with the exception of 2-3 seasons. Point totals are inflated.

When you adjust for scoring rates, Patrick Kane's 88 points in his final year of his ELC was more significant than Mitch Marner's 94 points in his final year of his ELC.

So, this article is suggesting a $9 m contract for 7 years (maybe 6). The article suggests that the Leafs should wait until a few other RFAs are signed.

If the Leafs hold steady to an offer like that, are we headed for another Nylander style holdout?

 

[Pi]

I think David Poile said that when he matched the offer on Shea Weber he knew he would trade him one day. The fact that it went down the offer sheet route meant the player wasn’t 100% about the organization. A few years later he pulled the trigger.

The fact that Marner would go and seek meetings for potential offer sheets would already be too much for me personally. Especially a couple of days after the Leafs pay such a heavy price to clear room for him and then he makes a public statement about how sorry he is to see Marleau go. If he goes down that road, the clock starts ticking on his departure even if nothing comes of it or if the Leafs match.

I know business is business but there’s an inconsistency there that I wouldn’t be able to walk back from.

Oh yeah, if Marner signs an offer sheet that the Leafs have no option but to match, he's eventually getting traded...that might be one year from the day he signs the offer sheet or a 2-3 years down the road but he will definitely not be here long term.

 

[Pi]

So, this article is suggesting a $9 m contract for 7 years (maybe 6). The article suggests that the Leafs should wait until a few other RFAs are signed.

If the Leafs hold steady to an offer like that, are we headed for another Nylander style holdout?

Leafs can't afford a Nylander type hold out this year, if he remains unsigned and the season begins, his cap hit in years 2-whatever would be low but the first year would be higher than normal. We had cap space to do that last year, we don't this year.

If he's not signed close to the season starting (lets say a couple games) then he's not signing the entire year IMO. We don't have the $$.

 

[MyBudJT]

Absolutley it is.

Its tbr ame folks who claimed that those who felt Nylander was worth his contract were putting player above team are now acting as if it's the greatest insult in Leafs history if Dubas doesnt make Marner the highest paid winger of all time.

You do realize that the vast majority of the Nylander criticsm started in September right. Its a completely different scenario now.

Marner is getting a LOT more hate now than Nylander got until about mid-November.

 

[selltrade]

Can an offer sheet include a No trade or No Movement clause? So if a team matched they cant move the player more then the 1 year built in restriction.

 

[Pi]

What 'way' has Marner behaved, exactly? So far, everything we're hereing is speculation, because its the Toronto spotlight.

It's not speculation. They've basically hired Darren Dreger as their official mouthpiece.

 

[MyBudJT]

It's not speculation. They've basically hired Darren Dreger as their official mouthpiece.

Source? Oh wait, you probably don't have one... because its speculation.

 

[Cor]

Source? Oh wait, you probably don't have one... because its speculation.

CJ literally indicated on the SDP that Marner's camp was pushing information through Dreger.

It's plain as day too.

 

[Menzinger]

What 'way' has Marner behaved, exactly? So far, everything we're hereing is speculation, because its the Toronto spotlight.

It's being outright reported by Lebraun that Ferris and Marner are expected to meet with teams.

I get that you may not want to hear that, but eventually need to take the head out of the sand at some point.

Edit: typo

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Leafs can't afford a Nylander type hold out this year, if he remains unsigned and the season begins, his cap hit in years 2-whatever would be low but the first year would be higher than normal. We had cap space to do that last year, we don't this year.

If he's not signed close to the season starting (lets say a couple games) then he's not signing the entire year IMO. We don't have the $$.

Re: bolded text -> Yes, agreed.

But, are you thinking he holds out if the Leafs offer $9 m for 6 or 7 years?

And, even though offer sheets have been rare historically, could it happen this time in Marner's case? Or, is this just more strong-arm negotiation tactics?

 

[Menzinger]

You do realize that the vast majority of the Nylander criticsm started in September right. Its a completely different scenario now.

Marner is getting a LOT more hate now than Nylander got until about mid-November.

Nylander wasn't demanding to be paid like Matthew's nor was he soliciting offersheets.

Matthew's and Nylanders representitives kept things quite and behind the scenes during their negotiations- the exact opposite that's happening here. Hence the reactions from fans being what they are

 

[MyBudJT]

It's being outright reported by Lebrain that Ferris and Marner are expected to meet with teams.

I get that you may not want to hear that, but eventually need to take the head out of the sand at some point.

Even if/when they meet with teams, it really doesn't matter. Its not a big deal. What matters is if they sign the offer sheet.

I think Marner has a right to figure out what his value is. Hopefully by talking to other teams, he's ask will come down a bit.

 

[Pi]

It's kind of crazy to see the difference between a guy like Tavares and Marner.

Tavares was told by Pat Brisson that he could squeeze out a couple million more from the Islanders if he waited. Tavares said it's fine and just signed one of the most team friendly second contracts for a 1st overall pick ever.

Marner is trying to squeeze out a couple more million dollars on a contract that would be 70M+ on an 8 year deal as an RFA when he's more than likely already getting a reasonable deal.

 

[MyBudJT]

Nylander wasn't demanding to be paid like Matthew's nor was he soliciting offersheets.

Matthew's and Nylanders representitives kept things quite and behind the scenes during their negotiations- the exact opposite that's happening here. Hence the reactions from fans being what they are

Marner is a LOT closer to Matthews' tier than he is Nylander's tier. Not sure what your point is here, exactly.