Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VII | The Saga Continues

[Cor]

I disagree about no premium on Nylander.... but If Marner isn't comparable to Matthews, he isn't comparable to Nylander either...

Marner has accomplished something that only 7 other players (1 other winger) has accomplished in the last 25 years. Score 94 points by their U22 season. This guy is in the superstar category. He'll be paid like one too.

I suggest you read this article Let's talk about Mitch Marner

I probably the first person in line to dislike the author, but it's a good deep look at Mitch Marner, and how he compares to other players who played their ELC in the cap era.


Also, scoring this season across the league was higher than all of the previous 25 years with the exception of 2-3 seasons. Point totals are inflated.

When you adjust for scoring rates, Patrick Kane's 88 points in his final year of his ELC was more significant than Mitch Marner's 94 points in his final year of his ELC.

 

[Walshy7]

There is no such thing as a group 1 restricted free agent. By definition a restricted free agent is either group 2 or group 4.

Cap friendly or forum guy? Such a hard choice who to believe.

On one hand a site dedicated to contracts and on the other forum guy.

I just don’t know what to believe anymore

 

[Stephen]

If I'm Dubas, today is the last day for Marner to agree to a 8 years @ 9.95m.

If he doesn't agree, I sign Panarin and don't sign a contract with Marner until after Dec 1.

If he signs an offersheet, I take the picks and run.

It to the point where Marner is causing problems from my team moving forward. If Marner isn't being offered that much, then it's on Dubas.

The whole situation where Marner keeps insisting that he’s every bit as good as Matthews feels like an uncomfortable dynamic.

 

[Stand Witness]

I still think this post might have been a slight misstep by Marner in the negotiation process.

Shows he is bluffing and still pictures himself as a Leaf next season.

 

[Caesium]

Cap friendly or forum guy? Such a hard choice who to believe.

On one hand a site dedicated to contracts and on the other forum guy.

I just don’t know what to believe anymore

Group 1 is an entry level player, which is not a restricted free agent. Read the f***ing CBA.

 

[MyBudJT]

Don't see how what Marner has done this season is more impressive than Kane's third year in the league at the age of 20-21.

88 points when four players scored 100 points. This year 6 players scored 100 points and another two were at 99 points. Kane played with no one even slightly comparable to Tavares during that year.

Scoring was up this year league wide. 94 points is very good if this is how the NHL is trending, but if not, Marner will not be a consistent 90+ point player. He'll be around PPG.

Kane was 9th in the league in scoring his U22 year, Marner was just 11th. Big difference

Marner has produced at a 95 point pace the whole 2nd half of his career. Why don't you think he'll be a consistent 90 point player?

 

[Walshy7]

Group 1 is an entry level player, which is not a restricted free agent. Read the ****ing CBA.

Haha chill out dude I’m only having a laugh. What is a 10c rfa do you know? Cap Friendly doesn’t say what it is, I imagine it’s also very obscure like a older first time nhlers?

 

[therealkoho]

He's saying for Marner.

oops my bad! thinking Panarin was RFA for some reason, old age prolly

either way Panarin will not sell himself short when Florida is already making noise about him, 9m there is 13m here, no cap space for that I'm afraid even if we let Marner slide

 

[Pi]

Kane was 9th in the league in scoring his U22 year, Marner was just 11th. Big difference

Marner has produced at a 95 point pace the whole 2nd half of his career. Why don't you think he'll be a consistent 90 point player?

So you do see the difference in scoring then? 88 points was 9th in 2009-10 and that was without having a guy like Tavares as his centre. Kane went straight from the draft to the NHL. Marner didn't.

No matter what you compare, Kane in his first three years was a better player than Marner.

 

[Walshy7]

View attachment 239739 I still think this post might have been a slight misstep by Marner in the negotiation process.

Shows he is bluffing and still pictures himself as a Leaf next season.

Not really it just looks like expressing his love and admiration for patty

 

[Faltorvo]

I think the main threat of an offersheet is something in the ~5 year X 10.5M range. Just below the threshold for an offersheet value of four 1sts (it would instead be two 1sts + 2nd + 3rd), takes him right to UFA status, and overpays him. If we don't match, compensation isn't great, and is in fact terrible if it's a projected playoff team. We could obviously match, but it'd be a pretty crappy contract being both higher caphit and shorter term than you'd expect.

IF he gets offersheeted though, the Leafs have a week to match. IMO they should fully use that week, and fully explore the UFA market. Because they could match and keep him, or they could spend the money in free agency on other player(s) and get the two 1sts + 2nd + 3rd as compensation (I highly highly doubt any team would offersheet him at four 1sts worth compensation).

You do realise what you just said right?

A team is going to give up 2 1rsts +2nd+3rd just to get MM on a crappy deal that overpays him and walks him right into UFA.

 

[613Leafer]

Don't see how what Marner has done this season is more impressive than Kane's third year in the league at the age of 20-21.

88 points when four players scored 100 points. This year 6 players scored 100 points and another two were at 99 points. Kane played with no one even slightly comparable to Tavares during that year.

Scoring was up this year league wide. 94 points is very good if this is how the NHL is trending, but if not, Marner will not be a consistent 90+ point player. He'll be around PPG.

Yea, you really have to look at where guys finished in the scoring race to account for differences between years.

Marner's last two seasons he finished 39th and 11th in scoring (11th was while playing with Tavares).

Gaudreau's two seasons before signing he finished 33rd and 6th (playing with a ~60 point C at the time).
Kucherov's two seasons before signing he finished 5th and 3rd (in one of those seasons Stamkos was injured virtually all year and Point hadn't broken out yet).
Kane's two seasons before signing he finished 40th and 9th (was a year younger than Marner).
Stamkos two seasons before signing he finished 5th both times (was a year younger than Marner).
etc.

Factoring in age (as a negative against Marner when using Kane/Stamkos as comparisons, but a positive for Marner when comparing to Gaudreau), I'd say his contract should be somewhere between the Kane/Stamkos contracts and the Gaudreau contract. Kane and Stamkos signed for 11.09%/11.66% of the cap respectively on 5 year deals, and Gaudreau for 9.25% on a six year deal.

So something like 10% on a six year deal would be more than fair (which would be 8.15M over 6 years). The media has blown things so far out of proportion with him for the last year though, that a number like that isn't even remotely part of the conversation.

The Stamkos contract (11.66% of the cap) which he received for finishing 5th in league scoring in back-to-back years at a younger age than Marner is today - would be 9.5M under an 81.5M cap, just to give some context for the ABSURD requests for ~11M.

 

[613Leafer]

You do realise what you just said right?

A team is going to give up 2 1rsts +2nd+3rd just to get MM on a crappy deal that overpays him and walks him right into UFA.

Yes, which is why teams very very rarely sign offersheets. Because by definition you have to overpay, otherwise the other team would match, and then on top of that you have to give up picks.

My point is that IF he signs an offersheet, that's the context we'd be dealing with. There's not really any incentive for him to sign an offersheet for 5 years X 9M, because he can likely already get that from us.

 

[Coatsy79]

this entire contract debacle we are facing with Marner (and Matthews signing at 11.5M) is due to Edmonton and their incompetent former GM Chia. If he hadn't offered McDavid 13.5M (which was reduced to 12.5M by McDavid himself), and instead had offered to sign him for ~10.5M over 5 or 6 years, it would have kept the Matthews contract to ~9M and Marner's contract at about 7.5M to 8M.

the fact that McDavid signed at 12.5M raised the bar for everyone else in the league. they literally ****ed the entire league single-handedly by giving McDavid such a high contract after his rookie contract.

**** edmonton, and their incompetent management. hopefully they're **** for the next 20 years.

Urgh, imagine if Matthews and Marner did sign for those numbers, they'd still be filthy rich and we'd have enough money for another decent defender

Can't help but feeling like our chances of a cup are being scuppered before they even start

 

[Pi]

Yea, you really have to look at where guys finished in the scoring race to account for differences between years.

Marner's last two seasons he finished 39th and 11th in scoring (11th was while playing with Tavares).

Gaudreau's two seasons before signing he finished 33rd and 6th (playing with a ~60 point C at the time).
Kucherov's two seasons before signing he finished 5th and 3rd (in one of those seasons Stamkos was injured virtually all year and Point hadn't broken out yet).
Kane's two seasons before signing he finished 40th and 9th (was a year younger than Marner).
Stamkos two seasons before signing he finished 5th both times (was a year younger than Marner).
etc.

Factoring in age (as a negative against Marner when using Kane/Stamkos as comparisons, but a positive for Marner when comparing to Gaudreau), I'd say his contract should be somewhere between the Kane/Stamkos contracts and the Gaudreau contract. Kane and Stamkos signed for 11.09%/11.66% of the cap respectively on 5 year deals, and Gaudreau for 9.25% on a six year deal.

So something like 10% on a six year deal would be more than fair (which would be 8.15M over 6 years). The media has blown things so far out of proportion with him for the last year though, that a number like that isn't even remotely part of the conversation.

The Stamkos contract (11.66% of the cap) which he received for finishing 5th in league scoring in back-to-back years at a younger age than Marner is today - would be 9.5M under an 81.5M cap, just to give some context for the ABSURD requests for ~11M.

Yeah, they make Marner out to seem like some MVP candidate in the media. Makes absolutely no sense. He didn't carry the offense of the team, we had so many weapons despite the fact that Matthews got injured.

I am okay with paying Marner some type of over payment around 9M for 6 years if he doesn't want an 8 year extension but ~5 years around 10M or 11M for an 8 year deal is just crazy money.

I like Marner a lot but in terms of importance to this team, he comes in at 3 or 4. Matthews is better. Tavares is better too (at the moment, could change in the next couple years), Rielly is more important as well.

If put up a 110-115 points this season and was clearly the best player on the team, ask for whatever you want Mitch but you got 94 points in a season where scoring was up across the board while playing with a guy that routinely makes players around him better.

 

[MyBudJT]

I suggest you read this article Let's talk about Mitch Marner

I probably the first person in line to dislike the author, but it's a good deep look at Mitch Marner, and how he compares to other players who played their ELC in the cap era.


Also, scoring this season across the league was higher than all of the previous 25 years with the exception of 2-3 seasons. Point totals are inflated.

When you adjust for scoring rates, Patrick Kane's 88 points in his final year of his ELC was more significant than Mitch Marner's 94 points in his final year of his ELC.

Half of that article was junk, but again, I agree with you, 11% seems appropriate on a 5-6 year deal. That said, he's going to be looking for a little premium add-on that Nylander and Matthews got on their contracts.

Adjusting for scoring rates, Kane's production wasn't "more significant" than Marner's. When you adjust, they both are at 94 points IIRC.

Now, when you factor in that Kane's production primarily came from the PP, while Marner's production primarily at ES... and that Kane had significantly more powerplay ice time.... and that Marner is a legitimate PK threat.... you could make an argument Marner should get more than Kane.

U22
Points
Kane: 30G 88P (58 EVP, 29 PPP, 1 SHP)
Marner: 26G 94P (70 EVP, 21 PPP, 3SHP)

Time on Ice / GP
Kane: 15:50 EV, 3:14 PP, 0:08 SH --- 19:12 TOT
Marner: 15:53 EV, 2:35 PP, 1:21 SH --- 19:49 TOT

 

[MyBudJT]

So you do see the difference in scoring then? 88 points was 9th in 2009-10 and that was without having a guy like Tavares as his centre. Kane went straight from the draft to the NHL. Marner didn't.

No matter what you compare, Kane in his first three years was a better player than Marner.

Kane also had a better PP unit / played much more on the PP, which helped his production....

I'm talking about their U22 seasons. Marner has caught up.

 

[4StevieBlunder4]

I don’t understand why people are claiming we paid a premium for Nylander. Nylander was holding out for the premium. He didn’t get it in the end.

You could argue that maybe we compromised a little too close to an overpayment (I would say, based on deals getting signed now, that we didn’t but that’s a reasonable debate). We aren’t paying a premium price for Nylander though. If he got his desired 8 mil, then definitely that would be the case.

As for Marner, he really shouldn’t make more than 9. He is extremely important to the team, but losing him doesn’t close our cup window. Tavares gives us that luxury, worst comes to worst.

 

[Pi]

Kane also had a better PP unit / played much more on the PP, which helped his production....

I'm talking about their U22 seasons. Marner has caught up.

I think Kane is the perfect example for Marner, contract wise and career wise.

People expecting Marner to continue scoring over 90 points per season will be disappointed in him because he won't be doing that. It's tough to put up those kind of #'s consistently.

 

[MyBudJT]

I don’t understand why people are claiming we paid a premium for Nylander. Nylander was holding out for the premium. He didn’t get it in the end.

You could argue that maybe we compromised a little too close to an overpayment (I would say, based on deals getting signed now, that we didn’t but that’s a reasonable debate). We aren’t paying a premium price for Nylander though. If he got his desired 8 mil, then definitely that would be the case.

As for Marner, he really shouldn’t make more than 9. He is extremely important to the team, but losing him doesn’t close our cup window. Tavares gives us that luxury, worst comes to worst.

Nylander got a premium because he should have come in at 6.5.

As for Marner not making more than 9.... Jeff Skinner just signed 8 x 9. Marner is a significantly better player than Skinner.

 

[Faltorvo]

Urgh, imagine if Matthews and Marner did sign for those numbers, they'd still be filthy rich and we'd have enough money for another decent defender

Can't help but feeling like our chances of a cup are being scuppered before they even start

Given any unforeseen trades, i disagree,,,BUT

it will come down to these 4 players , Melander earning that Garbage contract, Matty earning the 2nd highest cap hit in the league

Lilljgrin and Sandin becoming top 4 D

everyone else has been earning their contracts and it made for a very strong team.

Given that those 2 young D are trending to be top 4 D and Matty IF healthy can earn that big deal

then it only come down to Melander , is he that garbage fire we saw in the Pos or can he actually care enough to earn his deal.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Quoting this since it's 100x more likely to be Kadri than Nylander

And will see the usual blokes scream about tougghhhnessdss

I won't complain if Kadri is traded but he won't get us the return we need which is a quality RHD and cap space.

 

[Pi]

I won't complain if Kadri is traded but he won't get us the return we need which is a quality RHD and cap space.

The Lightning just traded JT Miller for what seems like a slam dunk lottery pick in 2021 especially if Vancouver is dumb enough to be interested in acquiring Zaitsev or signing Tyler Myers to a long term contract.

Do not underestimate the # of dumb GM's in this league.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Toronto Maple Leafs Draft Weekend: The Marleau Deal, Marner Saga, and the latest on Zaitsev

That said, part of the deal with acquiring Tavares involved Dubas meeting with the players individually about it (Marner and Matthews were directly involved in the courting process to lure JT to Toronto). When Dubas delivered the message, “We have an opportunity to add a superstar free agent at a big number,” with that, you would’ve assumed there was an understanding in place: It’s going to be tight, and while you’re all going to get the money you deserve, everyone needs to be reasonable and work with the team here in your contract negotiations as opposed to clinging to every ounce of leverage available and scrapping it out for every single dollar.

Dubas clearly doesn’t want to be going through this with a star player he has every intention of treating well and paying equitably. I’m all for players fighting for what’s fair, but in Marner’s case, expecting $10.5-11 million on five-year deal, if that is indeed the case (not saying we know any of this for sure), is not a reasonable stance by any objective measure. Marner is an outstanding player in so many facets of the game, but he’s not getting Matthews-adjacent money because he didn’t score 40 goals as a rookie and lead the NHL in even-strength goal scoring since he entered the league (goal scoring obviously being the most valued commodity in the NHL).
I get the sense watching and listening to Dubas speak about the whole affair that he can’t believe it could really be coming to this, with Marner currently on the verge of holding court with other teams around the league. It’s pretty hard to wrap your head around. Of course, there is still time to avoid the whole thing, and it would quickly be water under the bridge quickly if they can find common ground and prove a lot of the noise in the media surrounding this negotiation was just that — noise.

 

[Menzinger]

If Matthew's did a public tour of other teams to try and draw interest in an offersheet like Marner plans to, folks would be burning his Jersey in front of Scotia Bank arena