Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[keonsbitterness]

I come to Marner threads for passive-aggressive posts, and I stay for passive-aggressive posts.

 

[Hallonbroder]

Wouldn’t Rantanen replacing Nylander make more sense? I’m assuming the goal is to ice the best team.

*** only player that they will pay more than Matthews would be McDavid.

I can see that you keep ignoring the fact that Nylander can easily say “No” to that. Your boy, Mitch, can’t, unless they sign him.

 

[francis246]

What a ‘Mess’ of a post

Marner didn’t want short term, he wanted 8 years but Dubas negotiated it down to 6 for some reason.

Dubas’ own words.

“It gives both the team and player flexibility moving forward”

…what

His schtick is to come into the thread and say some dumb, controversial bullshit everyday.

 

[Mess]

Even though traditionally the Leafs have ignored external comps in negotiations, I think it makes absolute sense to wait for Ranta to sign. He will establish a number somewhere lower than Draisaitl (same agent) and MM will be settled for somewhere between Willie and that. Its maybe unfortunate Willie set the floor so high but they did what they felt they needed to do and honestly percentage of the cap seems to be the big driver in what the top players are demanding (although I think we are getting this mostly from media types rather than agents).

I don't think they would dare let Mitch get to UFA in light of how the Nylander negotiations went but they might have the spine to us the Ranta number as a cap. A player can't use other local tax situations and a percentage of the cap both. An interesting thing to watch.

Marner is different than Willy in that Mitch is a home grown Ontario kid. I would have little fear walking Marner to free agency knowing that HE would like to remain a Leaf so in no hurry to sign elsewhere.. If he did choose to chase top dollar via free agency and leave TO it would be his choice, by turning down a lower offer from the Leafs. Then you would see that $$$ more than Location was his true motivation.

In Colorado they also have an internal Cap and so Rantanen making more than MacKinnon ($12.6 mil) seems to be the sticking point. Leafs could offer Mikko $13 mil X 8 years and still have him fall below Matthews on a similar internal cap limit.

MIkko after perhaps only Kucherov is the best RW in the game. His contract should set the bar particularly for Marner as the ultimate ceiling. While UFA status generally isn't used for comparables as its whatever another team is willing to pay, goes and you can't prevent stupidity by GMs overspending.. But after Leafs got taken hard on the past Marner contract as a RFA, they should be looking to correct the market now. IMO

 

[francis246]

I get that reasoning, but shouldn’t the “right move” be to explore other options if the one you’ve tried for years only gave one playoff series win?


But….one of the three is not signed to a NMC after this season. That’s why Marners the “option”…

For sure, I’m not convinced the answers are out there in UFA. I’d rather see Marner sign for a contract like Pastrnak where there is some limited trade protection where you can still move the contract at some point.

 

[francis246]

I couldn't agree more. If it's true that the Leafs and the Avs both have internal caps and nobody can get more than Matthews/MacKinnon, that means we could pay Rantanen more than the Avs.

If Rantanen isn't happy with this and is willing to move, he'll probably want to go someplace that has a shot of winning the cup so we'd be on the short list, Marner leaving gives us the cap space to pay him, and if we can pay him more than the Avs because of internal caps, this all extremely interesting and not keeping this in mind would incredibly stupid.

What would you rather have, Rantanen at 13.2 million, or Marner at 13.2, 13, 12.5, 12, whatever? Rantanen is a playoff beast, I'd rather have him at 13.2 than Marner at 11 myself and it's not close.

I would actually love for this to happen but I think we’d still have the same issues. When Marner eventually leaves I think most of us will realize a big part of the reason we lose is because 34 also does not play like one of the best in the world. 34 does not take over games in the playoffs like MacKinnon or McDavid, so adding Rantanen would feel like more of the same. The key factor is we need 34 to have a monster playoffs IMO, it’s not goaltending, depth scoring, defense but can our golden boy play like the best player on the planet and be healthy.

 

[ToneDog]

…what

He's kidding. He also wants to allocate $20m towards signing Marner and Tavares, and rightfully so. The problem is, they may ask for more given their numbers so far.

 

[Gabriel426]

….also the thought that you either keep it the same or Marner leaves is too narrow.
IMO, if change is warranted any of the three should be discussed as being moved for change, not just the one.

The thinking of some that if you don’t want Marner moved means you don’t want the team to win is asinine and really should just be ignored.

I would also add JT and Reilly to that core.

I would even start now. Andersson and Miller are two pieces that would be great on the Leafs.

 

[ToneDog]

I would actually love for this to happen but I think we’d still have the same issues. When Marner eventually leaves I think most of us will realize a big part of the reason we lose is because 34 also does not play like one of the best in the world. 34 does not take over games in the playoffs like MacKinnon or McDavid, so adding Rantanen would feel like more of the same. The key factor is we need 34 to have a monster playoffs IMO, it’s not goaltending, depth scoring, defense but can our golden boy play like the best player on the planet and be healthy.

So you agree that these guys are a big part of reason they have had little playoff success, yet you are happy to keep running them back? Do you think Matthews is going start playing like Messier. Marner like Gretzky and Nylander like Matt Tkachuk in the near future? They are what they are and we've seen it in for 9 playoff series. The time to move off this core was years ago but they keep going to the well and telling us they are not here to sell jerseys. What a f***ing joke.

 

[thewave]

Marner is different than Willy in that Mitch is a home grown Ontario kid. I would have little fear walking Marner to free agency knowing that HE would like to remain a Leaf so in no hurry to sign elsewhere.. If he did choose to chase top dollar via free agency and leave TO it would be his choice, by turning down a lower offer from the Leafs. Then you would see that $$$ more than Location was his true motivation.

In Colorado they also have an internal Cap and so Rantanen making more than MacKinnon ($12.6 mil) seems to be the sticking point. Leafs could offer Mikko $13 mil X 8 years and still have him fall below Matthews on a similar internal cap limit.

MIkko after perhaps only Kucherov is the best RW in the game. His contract should set the bar particularly for Marner as the ultimate ceiling. While UFA status generally isn't used for comparables as its whatever another team is willing to pay, goes and you can't prevent stupidity by GMs overspending.. But after Leafs got taken hard on the past Marner contract as a RFA, they should be looking to correct the market now. IMO

The main questions are. Will he perform in the POs and will he agree to a more friendly contract considering the last one was an overpay. Matthews is the better player, I hope people don't try to get into that bs again.

 

[Mess]

Wouldn’t Rantanen replacing Nylander make more sense? I’m assuming the goal is to ice the best team.

*** only player that they will pay more than Matthews would be McDavid.

The defense rest. A full no movement clause with an 8 year commitment to the Leafs organization of which Willy is just 43 games into.

What makes you think Nylander has any desire to leave Toronto, when he in good faith just signed his current deal?

Nylander waiving his NMC to accommodate Marner not wanting to leave, isn't ground in facts but rather more so wishful thinking on the part of Marner fans it appears.

 

[ACC1224]

I would also add JT and Reilly to that core.

I would even start now. Andersson and Miller are two pieces that would be great on the Leafs.

Yeah I just said the 3 since Rielly and Tavares (next season) don’t make the big dollars.

 

[francis246]

So you agree that these guys are a big part of reason they have had little playoff success, yet you are happy to keep running them back? Do you think Matthews is going start playing like Messier. Marner like Gretzky and Nylander like Matt Tkachuk in the near future? They are what they are and we've seen it in for 9 playoff series. The time to move off this core was years ago but they keep going to the well and telling us they are not here to sell jerseys. What a f***ing joke.

The time to move them was after Montreal. As much as I love Marner as a player I was 100% on board with moving him after that series. Hell we know from Jonas Siegel, Marner was expecting to be traded after the Florida series. At least then you could have gotten value for Marner, probably kept Hyman and the team is now balanced. The window of opportunity has passed. The team is completely screwed now, they cannot let a player of that calibre walk, it would be TERRIBLE asset management and it’s highly unlikely you replace him through UFA. We don’t really have much asets right now to parlay into players either with the cap space. So the leafs are in a pretty shitty situation. If we had someone in the AHL who is demonstrating the ability to replace even 50% of what Marner brings I’d 100% be on board with letting him walk. We don’t have that.

Anyone who thinks we are gonna let Marner walk to UFA and end up with Rantanen is living in a fairy tale land. There’s a low percentage chance that happens.

 

[ACC1224]

The defense rest. A full no movement clause with an 8 year commitment to the Leafs organization of which Willy is just 43 games into.

What makes you think Nylander has any desire to leave Toronto, when he is good faith just signed his current deal?

Nylander waiving his NMC to accommodate Marner not wanting to leave, isn't ground in facts but rather more so wishful thinking on the part of Marner fans it appears.

View attachment 959562

Not wishful, you’re projecting.
I doubt any of them want to leave but if the team does want a shakeup you’d think they’d prefer to move the 3rd wheel and keep the top 2.

 

[thewave]

Not wishful, you’re projecting.
I doubt any of them want to leave but if the team does want a shakeup you’d think they’d prefer to move the 3rd wheel and keep the top 2.

The playoffs will iron out who the top 2 are. Regular season is owned by Marner but certainly not the playoffs and most certainly when you need an actual goal scored.

 

[francis246]

The playoffs will iron out who the top 2 are. Regular season is owned by Marner but certainly not the playoffs and most certainly when you need an actual goal scored.

What I want to know from fans is, what do we need to see from both the team and Marner to want to bring him back?

 

[Gabriel426]

I would actually love for this to happen but I think we’d still have the same issues. When Marner eventually leaves I think most of us will realize a big part of the reason we lose is because 34 also does not play like one of the best in the world. 34 does not take over games in the playoffs like MacKinnon or McDavid, so adding Rantanen would feel like more of the same. The key factor is we need 34 to have a monster playoffs IMO, it’s not goaltending, depth scoring, defense but can our golden boy play like the best player on the planet and be healthy.

AM style is not Mack and McD. Been saying Willie’s style(skating with the puck) is really the poor’s man version of Mack and McD.

Agree with what you said. AM needs to have dominant games like he did in Game 2 against the Bruins in playoffs.

 

[ToneDog]

The time to move them was after Montreal. As much as I love Marner as a player I was 100% on board with moving him after that series. Hell we know from Jonas Siegel, Marner was expecting to be traded after the Florida series. At least then you could have gotten value for Marner, probably kept Hyman and the team is now balanced. The window of opportunity has passed. The team is completely screwed now, they cannot let a player of that calibre walk, it would be TERRIBLE asset management and it’s highly unlikely you replace him through UFA. We don’t really have much asets right now to parlay into players either with the cap space. So the leafs are in a pretty shitty situation. If we had someone in the AHL who is demonstrating the ability to replace even 50% of what Marner brings I’d 100% be on board with letting him walk. We don’t have that.

Anyone who thinks we are gonna let Marner walk to UFA and end up with Rantanen is living in a fairy tale land. There’s a low percentage chance that happens.

I am fine with signing him today if he was willing to sign at a team friendly number ($12.5m) but his camp would rather wait for the Leafs to soften to get more. Ferris is not doing him any favours IMO.

 

[thewave]

What I want to know from fans is, what do we need to see from both the team and Marner to want to bring him back?

He needs to bring similar regular season effectiveness to the POs for me. So what's that 100-110pt pace with about 30 goal pace in that for him? Matthews should bering about 50 goal pace in the playoffs. Nylander 40 goal pace.

I mean for what they are making guys like Kinnon don't trail off below 1ppg

If this is too high of an expectation, they should at the very least all be 1ppg though.

 

[francis246]

So you agree that these guys are a big part of reason they have had little playoff success, yet you are happy to keep running them back? Do you think Matthews is going start playing like Messier. Marner like Gretzky and Nylander like Matt Tkachuk in the near future? They are what they are and we've seen it in for 9 playoff series. The time to move off this core was years ago but they keep going to the well and telling us they are not here to sell jerseys. What a f***ing joke.

I didn’t answer your original question. I wouldn’t say I’m necessarily happy to run it back brother. But from my perspective I don’t feel like management has a choice. It’s so hard to acquire good players, they didn’t move one of them when they had control and I don’t believe in letting good players walk. So my mindset is we are stuck and hopefully these guys break through and prove us wrong moving forward. I get it’s not everyone’s point of view but I see a team without one of our 3 superstars struggling. Wouldn’t matter which of the three.

Personally I think they got to invest in better mid tier players and ELC guys. Find the right mix under the superstars.

 

[Antropovsky]

1- An unidimentionnal offensive player pretty trash in the defensive side who show up only when he interest to play... Outside he's a playmaker, they're no comparable to Marner who had been the most trusted player all his carreer in Toronto. Marner is closer of Barkov ( who didn't had more playoff succes in his first 9 season in NHL) than huberdeau.

2 funny you talking about physical play and being affraid to be hit when only tavares who took more hit than Marner
-hit taken by core 4 last 4 postseason
Tavares 58
marner 57
matthews 39
nylander 37

So if Marner avoid to be hit, what it's meaning for Matthews and Nylander ?!?!?!

You can't do total ice time... players get different amounts of ice time and injuries need to be accounted for. Need to use per 60.

Hits taken per 60 last 3 playoffs (NHT only allows 3 year increments)

Hits taken:
Tavares - 8.84/60
Nylander - 4.3/60
Marner - 4.65/60
Matthews - 3.25/60

Hits given:
Tavares - 10.61/60
Nylander - 1.64/60
Marner - 3.48/60
Matthews - 10.94/60

Blocked shots:
Tavares - 1.81/60
Nylander - 1.02/60
Marner - 0.87/60
Matthews - 2.56/60

This is what I expected. Again we shouldn't be measuring 11 million go 7 million Nylander. There's a 55% difference in there pay. Additionally, I'm not a huge Nylander fan either. I do like that he has gamebreaker offense though. Marner doesn't (unless we account for his abilitu to win games for the opposition).

Matthews is engaged physically, contrary to what some others have tried to say about him.

 

[ACC1224]

What I want to know from fans is, what do we need to see from both the team and Marner to want to bring him back?

He shows his value to the team and his teammates pretty much every night.

 

[Gabriel426]

What I want to know from fans is, what do we need to see from both the team and Marner to want to bring him back?

I will say at least ECF and not get blown out.
The core needs to show that they are worth their contract and just being defensive sound won’t cut it.
Going to be interesting to see how Willie Will performs as this is the first year where he is no longer the 4th highest paid forward, fifth highest paid player on the team and first time as a 10mil plus player. He can no longer just be good, he needs to be great. AM will also needs to step up as if he is outplay by someone like Coyle again, he just needs to go.

 

[Gabriel426]

He shows his value to the team and his teammates pretty much every night.

So is Dewar.
Like I mentioned many times, it is not MM the individual but the core collectively. If they collectively still can’t get it done, Leafs need a new core.

 

[Hallonbroder]

He shows his value to the team and his teammates pretty much every night.

Except the playoffs, but you know that already, just denying it.

Funny thing is that people are expecting “more from Nylander to show why he should stay” when he’s been on a 6,9-deal and outscoring, for example, Marner, quite a bit (goals, they matter).

People are acting as if Marner hasn’t been paid pretty much what Nylander just got, and earned (earned in Leafs terms) while consistently failing his team and his fans. Yes, he has, way more than Nylander who’s been paid half-ish of Marners salary