Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[ACC1224]

So is Dewar.
Like I mentioned many times, it is not MM the individual but the core collectively. If they collectively still can’t get it done, Leafs need a new core.

Yep and who remains in that new core is is what it will(may) come down to.

I don’t think many consider Dewar part of the core

 

[Antropovsky]

Have to think about Penny's quote "We arent here to sell jerseys"

Would be a bad look for him to turn around and sign Marner in the season and Leafs are ousted in 1st round again. That quote would be making the rounds in the offseason...not a good way to kick off being the CEO.

 

[DarkKnight]

 

[ACC1224]

View attachment 959586

What do those numbers mean?

 

[Hallonbroder]

View attachment 959586

Regular season warrior!

 

[Gabriel426]

Yep and who remains in that new core is is what it will(may) come down to.

I don’t think many consider Dewar part of the core

Making an example of players who is doing their job and providing value every game.

Honestly, if making Dewar a core player and Leafs end up winning the Cup. I don’t think I mind that.

 

[DarkKnight]

Regular season warrior!

You're not even a Leafs fan, get lost keyboard warrior.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I would actually love for this to happen but I think we’d still have the same issues. When Marner eventually leaves I think most of us will realize a big part of the reason we lose is because 34 also does not play like one of the best in the world. 34 does not take over games in the playoffs like MacKinnon or McDavid, so adding Rantanen would feel like more of the same. The key factor is we need 34 to have a monster playoffs IMO, it’s not goaltending, depth scoring, defense but can our golden boy play like the best player on the planet and be healthy.

Matthews, Marner, JT, they've all been playoff disappointments this is true. The fact that Matthews was playing a beast before he got injured against Boston gives me hope, we'll see what happens in the spring (and I hope we haven't signed Marner at that point).

If the Leafs paid Rantanen more than Matthews I wouldn't object.

Matthews probably wouldn't either. Rantanen would easily be the best winger to ever play beside him. I think a culture change is necessary so don't want Marner back for any number.

Rantanen is a much better player and it's not even close.

I wouldn't either.

 

[666]

You can't do total ice time... players get different amounts of ice time and injuries need to be accounted for. Need to use per 60.

Hits taken per 60 last 3 playoffs (NHT only allows 3 year increments)

Sample size too small.
Hits are notoriously unreliable stats.

At least you augmented someone else's bad stats with something a bit better. Still not good.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Lot's of Rantanen talk around here today. Here are some stats:
5v5 last 3 full seasons, both players playing in all the games.

GP TOI GF GA GF%
Mikko Rantanen Nathan MacKinnon 209 2734 182 117 60.9
Mikko Rantanen w/o Nathan MacKinnon 209 717 34 46 42.5
w/o Mikko Rantanen Nathan MacKinnon 209 735 52 38 57.8
w/o Mikko Rantanen w/o Nathan MacKinnon 209 5802 224 197 53.2

site is broken see attachment

Rantanen with Mack is great.
Mack without Rantanen is still great.
The team without either is pretty good.
Rantanen without Mack is really terrible.

The playoff numbers are similar but the sample size is too small.

There could be lots of explanations for it but based on these 3 years worth of numbers it appears that Rantanen REALLY depends on Mack for his success.

Coming from the guy who says points are irrelevant as they're "only 2% of the game", this is mildly amusing. The truth for you seems to be that points matter when you want them to matter, and they don't matter when you don't want them to matter.

 

[666]

Coming from the guy who says points are irrelevant as they're "only 2% of the game", this is mildly amusing. The truth for you seems to be that points matter when you want them to matter, and they don't matter when you don't want them to matter.

First time you didn't ignore stats but you still completely didn't understand them. Not surprised that you can't read but there aren't any points listed here. It's amazing that you could look at those numbers and even think that they represented points. Why do numbers confuse you so much?

 

[Gary Nylund]

First time you didn't ignore stats but you still completely didn't understand them. Not surprised that you can't read but there aren't any points listed here. It's amazing that you could look at those numbers and even think that they represented points. Why do numbers confuse you so much?

GF, GA, GF% ... what do you think the 'G' stands for? You know they give points for goals right? Or do you? Or do you think only goals matter, and points don't? And if points are irrelevant because they're "only 2% of the game", how could goals possibly be relevant?

If only goals matter, then you must have a very low opinion of Marner, but I thought you were a fan? Very hard to follow your "thinking" here. Are you even thinking, or are you just ranting?

 

[nuck]

Marner is different than Willy in that Mitch is a home grown Ontario kid. I would have little fear walking Marner to free agency knowing that HE would like to remain a Leaf so in no hurry to sign elsewhere.. If he did choose to chase top dollar via free agency and leave TO it would be his choice, by turning down a lower offer from the Leafs. Then you would see that $$$ more than Location was his true motivation.

In Colorado they also have an internal Cap and so Rantanen making more than MacKinnon ($12.6 mil) seems to be the sticking point. Leafs could offer Mikko $13 mil X 8 years and still have him fall below Matthews on a similar internal cap limit.

MIkko after perhaps only Kucherov is the best RW in the game. His contract should set the bar particularly for Marner as the ultimate ceiling. While UFA status generally isn't used for comparables as its whatever another team is willing to pay, goes and you can't prevent stupidity by GMs overspending.. But after Leafs got taken hard on the past Marner contract as a RFA, they should be looking to correct the market now. IMO

I would agree that in a reality where the Leafs were able to look at both Mitch and Ranta being available to sign on a given day, it would present a special opportunity. But reality is that it is unlikely Colorado lets him get free and then there is all the other clubs in the league that aren't sitting on Willie and AM so they can bid whatever they like. Would the Leafs risk Mitch actually getting to UFA just to find Rantanen used them to drive his price up and signed at the 11th hour? They paid Willie UFA money to avoid that possibility.

Mitch's ask would have to be obscene for them to let him hit the market. I don't think its a possibility they wait for a Ranta vs Marner option unless Marner wants to be the highest paid player on the club. Even then.... In a world where the team exits 1st round again and Mitch has a finger pointed at him, where Shanny then gets fired for being Shanny, and where #16 still wants $13M from the new sheriff then sure but all that isn't happening. The time for real change was before the NMs kicked in. Now it waits for Matthews deal to expire.