Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Antropovsky]

You're hopeless. I've finished with Gary now it's your turn.

You have two choices.

You can use small samples but then you have to account for all the context items like, match ups, linemates, coaches, competition, goaltending, injuries, usage etc, but it's a ton of work and you don't have the skills to do it.

Or you can start using much larger samples where the context items average out. That's the reason for the large samples. Get it now?



You're gonna have to do the work. Trust me, you will learn a lot. Figure out how large the set has to be so that the context averages out and do if for all the major stats. It's very easy and won't take long at all. I've told you this before. Also do the defensive stats too.

Okay, as I suspected, you avoided the question. Gonna make me go get it.

See the post quoted below. Note another poster pointed out that you used a small sample size, contradicting your own advice. They attached your post Please explain how that post by you, didn't rely on a small sample size?

How were you able to conclude this statement without a small sample size?

Why is this a small sample size now? Earlier you were more than happy to proclaim this sample size as undeniable proof that "Marner can lead the team without Matthews at his best".

View attachment 957056

How is his opinion in any way different to yours if we're talking in terms of your standards?


Edit: I won't even get into which opinions I agree with and what I don't - you specifically impose measures on others that you yourself don't even follow, that's what my point is.

 

[francis246]

Probably not the best idea to stake your argument on Buffalos management.

You're actually going to compare that Buffalo team he was on to the Leafs? Take note that Eichel on a SHIT team was only a few points behind Marner every season he was on Buffalo.

I listed guys who ELEVATE (or at least don't evaporate) their games in the playoffs. Most of those guys have been to a Finals, or won a Cup. Compare what you want, but Marner isn't anywhere close to anyone I listed in terms of playoff performance. I would take Eichel over Marner if it were an option.

To think playoff performance doesn't factor into a players contract negotiations is willful ignorance. Keep believing management teams only pay guys based on regular season stats.

Choose whatever management group you want, doesn’t make your take any less egregious.

Name me a superstar in the Salary Cap era that their NHL Club let them walk to UFA because of poor playoff performance. I’ll wait, it’s never fcking happened ever.

Better yet, tell me a team that refused to pay a superstar because of lack of playoff success. Yup, I’ll wait. Never happened. Playoff performance has never been a MAJOR factor in contract negotiations. It’s definitely a part of it. But it doesn’t weigh as heavily as regular season. Contracts are primarily based on how much you produce in the regular season. All we hear when players talk about comparables is individual regular season statistics because everyone involved in sports know that playoff success has more to do with team.

 

[666]

Okay, as I suspected, you avoided the question. Gonna make me go get it.

See the post quoted below. Note another poster pointed out that you used a small sample size, contradicting your own advice. They attached your post Please explain how that post by you, didn't rely on a small sample size?

I responded to that guy two posts below his. Also my original post was just adding some context to someone else's post. Pay attention man.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Choose whatever management group you want, doesn’t make your take any less egregious.

Name me a superstar in the Salary Cap era that their NHL Club let them walk to UFA because of poor playoff performance. I’ll wait, it’s never fcking happened ever.

Better yet, tell me a team that refused to pay a superstar because of lack of playoff success. Yup, I’ll wait. Never happened. Playoff performance has never been a MAJOR factor in contract negotiations. It’s definitely a part of it. But it doesn’t weigh as heavily as regular season. Contracts are primarily based on how much you produce in the regular season. All we hear when players talk about comparables is individual regular season statistics because everyone involved in sports know that playoff success has more to do with team.

If playoffs didn't matter, he'd be signed by now. IF they sign him soon for like 13-14M per, and they lose in the 1st or 2nd round where is the path to get better? Let's see how the playoffs go before deciding what to do.

 

[francis246]

If playoffs didn't matter, he'd be signed by now. IF they sign him soon for like 13-14M per, and they lose in the 1st or 2nd round where is the path to get better? Let's see how the playoffs go before deciding what to do.

Again never said it doesn’t matter. I said it doesn’t play that big of a role. Whether Marner gets the money from the leafs or somewhere else, he’s getting paid. If the leafs care about his playoff performance, another team will sign him in UFA and not care about the playoff numbers. That’s how sports has always worked, am I wrong about that?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Again never said it doesn’t matter. I said it doesn’t play that big of a role. Whether Marner gets the money from the leafs or somewhere else, he’s getting paid. If the leafs care about his playoff performance, another team will sign him in UFA and not care about the playoff numbers. That’s how sports has always worked, am I wrong about that?

Sure, another team may not care because they just want to get to the playoffs consistently first. Yea, he gets you there, no doubt about it. For us, it's not good enough anymore just to get there.

 

[francis246]

Sure, another team may not care because they just want to get to the playoffs consistently first. Yea, he gets you there, no doubt about it. For us, it's not good enough anymore just to get there.

Absolutely that’s where it comes down to the individual teams situation. Marner I’d say is a unique case where the team cannot ignore his playoff performance. It has to be factored in before they give him the money because we’ve had so little success with him and the rest of the core. Barely even a round 2 appearance. So the leafs are forced to consider that even though they probably think he’s a hell of a player for them.

 

[ToneDog]

Absolutely that’s where it comes down to the individual teams situation. Marner I’d say is a unique case where the team cannot ignore his playoff performance. It has to be factored in before they give him the money because we’ve had so little success with him and the rest of the core. Barely even a round 2 appearance. So the leafs are forced to consider that even though they probably think he’s a hell of a player for them.

Have no fear, the only ones happy with Marner's next contract will be Marner, the Marner camp and Jack Lambert and we'll have 8 years of the usual suspects telling us how much Marner is worth his cap hit.

 

[ACC1224]

Absolutely that’s where it comes down to the individual teams situation. Marner I’d say is a unique case where the team cannot ignore his playoff performance. It has to be factored in before they give him the money because we’ve had so little success with him and the rest of the core. Barely even a round 2 appearance. So the leafs are forced to consider that even though they probably think he’s a hell of a player for them.

I don't think they're looking for a core change but if they were it seems pretty obvious that Nylander would be the one they would look to move of the three.

 

[ToneDog]

Have no fear, the only ones happy with Marner's next contract will be Marner, the Marner camp and Jack Lambert and we'll have 8 years of the usual suspects telling us how much Marner is worth his cap hit.

Can't say I miss him but what ever happened to the guy who argued Marner was a bargain the year of the Canadian Division? Talk about a toxic Marner fanboy.

 

[666]

I'd like to point out that Nylander signed Jan 8th and it's now Jan 10th.

 

[francis246]

Have no fear, the only ones happy with Marner's next contract will be Marner, the Marner camp and Jack Lambert and we'll have 8 years of the usual suspects telling us how much Marner is worth his cap hit.

If the cap goes up as projected I don’t think many will care as time goes on. The leafs will get more playoff wins. They have stable goaltending. Even this year I see a third round appearance potentially depending on who our adds are at the deadline.

If the leafs never win the cup it’s not going to be because of the Marner contract specifically. It would be multiple factors.

 

[Gabriel426]

Top players in the league will always get paid. Whether it is Team A or Team B, they will get paid. Bc top players usually brings in money with perfromances, buzz….

Let’s be honest here, the Leafs will bring in revenue even if they are bottom in the League with Kampf as their 1C. In a way, Leafs as a team is playing on a different level than 90% of NHL teams.

Due to that Leafs really should be striving the win the Cup instead of just gathering top talents and sell jerseys.

I said it before if it was up to me, I would had traded the core 5 piece by piece since the Habs series. As I will adopt the Vegas model to run the team. That’s also why I don’t see how any management would continue to run the Core 5 if there is another first round exit this playoffs. By not resigning MM and JT, that’s 22mil on the cap room for UFA and trading. Would Leafs be able to replace MM and JT, absolutely not but will they be able to build a better team with 22mil, highly likely as the bar is set at getting into the 2nd round and not get blown out. The same goes to AM, Willie and Reilly too.

Look at TB, they didn’t resign their Captain, 1st overall and 2 time Cup Champs(even though he sucks in the playoffs), and they replaced him with another player and is exactly where they were last season.
Vegas didn’t resign Marchessault(Conn Symthe Winner in 2023) and they are even better than last season, although guys being healthy played a role too.
Islanders lost JT but ended up spreading that money on good players and ended up going to back to back ECF.

 

[Antropovsky]

I responded to that guy two posts below his. Also my original post was just adding some context to someone else's post. Pay attention man.

Here is your response to "that guy" . You didn't explain why you are able to use Matthews missing games in your quote, but dismissed others for using the very same stat:

What? He used a 14 game sample size of a cherry picked stat (with an even smaller sample size) where the teams best player was missing.

I compared Marner's entire season (so far) to the other stars who weren't missing their best player.

If you are constantly dismissing small sample sizes as insignificant, why bring up Matthews missing 14 games to favorably compare Marner to other stars? You already said the time he missed is too small of a sample size to others. You can’t have it both ways.

 

[666]

Here is your response to "that guy" . You didn't explain why you are able to use Matthews missing games in your quote, but dismissed others for using the very same stat:



If you are constantly dismissing small sample sizes as insignificant, why bring up Matthews missing 14 games to favorably compare Marner to other stars? You already said the time he missed is too small of a sample size to others. You can’t have it both ways.

edited to simplify:
Marner is still in the top 4 over half the season (the sample size). He's done it with a very diminished Matthews for most of it (the context). Now get your homework done and learn about sample sizes.

 

[Antropovsky]

Top players in the league will always get paid. Whether it is Team A or Team B, they will get paid. Bc top players usually brings in money with perfromances, buzz….

Let’s be honest here, the Leafs will bring in revenue even if they are the bottom the Leagues with Kampf as their 1C. In a way, Leafs as a team is playing on a different level than 90% of NHL teams.

Due to that Leafs really should be striving the win the Cup instead of just gathering top talents and sell jerseys.

I said it before if it was up to me, I would had traded the core 5 piece by piece since the Habs series. As I will adopt the Vegas model to run the team. That’s also why I don’t see how any management would continue to run the Core 5 if there is another first round exit this playoffs. By not resigning MM and JT, that’s 22mil on the cap room for UFA and trading. Would Leafs be able to replace MM and JT, absolutely not but will they be able to build a better team with 22mil, highly likely as the bar is set at getting into the 2nd round and not get blown out. The same goes to AM, Willie and Reilly too.

Look at TB, they didn’t resign their Captain, 1st overall and 2 time Cup Champs(even though he sucks in the playoffs), and they replaced him with another player and is exactly where they were last season.
Vegas didn’t resign Marchessault(Conn Symthe Winner in 2023) and they are even better than last season, although guys being healthy played a role too.
Islanders lost JT but ended up spreading that money on good players and ended up going to back to back ECF.

Yes look at Tampa... Stamkos went from 81 points to pacing 50. Look at Huberdeau, he went from 113 points to 55 after being traded from Florida to Calgary. Look at Gaudreau went from 115 to 74 from Calgary to Columbus.

There's only a select group of players that don't need to elite talent to prop them up and Marner isn't one of them....but he was paid like he is and he wants to continue to be paid like he is (by all accounts).

 

[mclaren55]

Choose whatever management group you want, doesn’t make your take any less egregious.

Name me a superstar in the Salary Cap era that their NHL Club let them walk to UFA because of poor playoff performance. I’ll wait, it’s never fcking happened ever.

Better yet, tell me a team that refused to pay a superstar because of lack of playoff success. Yup, I’ll wait. Never happened. Playoff performance has never been a MAJOR factor in contract negotiations. It’s definitely a part of it. But it doesn’t weigh as heavily as regular season. Contracts are primarily based on how much you produce in the regular season. All we hear when players talk about comparables is individual regular season statistics because everyone involved in sports know that playoff success has more to do with team.

Tell me which superstar UFA shit the bed as hard as Marner in the playoffs first. Every single person I listed in my original post (which had nothing to do with whether or not Marner would sign here) has been significantly deeper in the playoffs, with significantly better statistics. My whole original point was to MOVE on from this guy and his projected 12-13 mil cap hit so the Leafs could go deeper with better depth. My chirp at management was how soft they've been in negotiations. Go ahead and list all of the top contracts in the NHL and tell me the Leafs have done a great job, I'll wait.

I can name plenty of players from plenty of sports that were superstars and traded/unsigned due to team needs. Gretzky, Derozan, Clark, Esposito, Recchi, etc. This team has different needs than resigning Marner. Your egregious error was assuming that I meant they were stupid for signing superstars; negative. They were stupid for giving out insane contracts based on nothing BUT regular season performances. If management had factored in playoff performance, I doubt they would have attained the premium they did.

As for playoff performance being more of a "team" sport vs regular season, not sure I see your point. I think both are "team" sports. I don't see Matthews and Marner regularly dominating the regular season (Matthews has in terms of goal scoring). Hell, he hasn't even cracked 100 points in his career, but is paid like he's done it multiple times. Every superstar that has been resigned is either top of the league regularly in scoring, or goes deep in the playoffs. Why not hold our guys to the same standard?

I'm OK with us disagreeing, just don't take my words out of context.

 

[34]

While Mitch is a very skilled player,I just don’t see any other team in the league paying him over $10M a season.

He is not on the same level as the Matthews, MacKinnon type of guys. He is not a $13M guy.

If he is that set on thinking someone is going to pay him that, then good riddance.

 

[Gabriel426]

While Mitch is a very skilled player,I just don’t see any other team in the league paying him over $10M a season.

He is not on the same level as the Matthews, MacKinnon type of guys. He is not a $13M guy.

If he is that set on thinking someone is going to pay him that, then good riddance.

Teams will pay for different reasons such as just creating buzz, or having a great players to sell the game.
Beside owners not wanting to spend, I don’t see why teams like SJ, Ana, Utah, Hawks and even Islanders won’t sign MM or Rantanen for 12mil/yr.

Top UFAs will always be overpaid. Do they worth that contract is another story.

 

[Gabriel426]

Tell me which superstar UFA shit the bed as hard as Marner in the playoffs first. Every single person I listed in my original post (which had nothing to do with whether or not Marner would sign here) has been significantly deeper in the playoffs, with significantly better statistics. My whole original point was to MOVE on from this guy and his projected 12-13 mil cap hit so the Leafs could go deeper with better depth. My chirp at management was how soft they've been in negotiations. Go ahead and list all of the top contracts in the NHL and tell me the Leafs have done a great job, I'll wait.

I can name plenty of players from plenty of sports that were superstars and traded/unsigned due to team needs. Gretzky, Derozan, Clark, Esposito, Recchi, etc. This team has different needs than resigning Marner. Your egregious error was assuming that I meant they were stupid for signing superstars; negative. They were stupid for giving out insane contracts based on nothing BUT regular season performances. If management had factored in playoff performance, I doubt they would have attained the premium they did.

As for playoff performance being more of a "team" sport vs regular season, not sure I see your point. I think both are "team" sports. I don't see Matthews and Marner regularly dominating the regular season (Matthews has in terms of goal scoring). Hell, he hasn't even cracked 100 points in his career, but is paid like he's done it multiple times. Every superstar that has been resigned is either top of the league regularly in scoring, or goes deep in the playoffs. Why not hold our guys to the same standard?

I'm OK with us disagreeing, just don't take my words out of context.

Interesting that you brought up DeRozen.

As MM and him are very similar.

Both are great players during their time with Raptors and Leafs. Top 15 in scoring in respective league. Not top 5 players in the league but good enough to consider to be top players. Both made it to their National Team on the biggest international tournament. MGT believe in them and build the team around them, while also choked in the playoffs.
This also applies to AM and JT too.

Not so much Willie and Reilly as the team really didn’t build around them.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Again never said it doesn’t matter. I said it doesn’t play that big of a role. Whether Marner gets the money from the leafs or somewhere else, he’s getting paid. If the leafs care about his playoff performance, another team will sign him in UFA and not care about the playoff numbers. That’s how sports has always worked, am I wrong about that?

No, you're right. Marner will get paid, that's not an interesting subject for discussion because ... he will get paid. A far more interesting question is how much of a contract should the Leafs be willing to give him.

As far as "That’s how sports has always worked", that's true but IMHO, that's not a good argument for doing anything. Let's not forget that every now and then, someone comes along, does things differently, people think they're idiots and then later, they're hailed as genius pioneers. See the post below - blow up the core after the MTL series and that could have been us. No guarantee it would have worked, but it might have, and what we did instead was do what teams have always done so we could hardly be worse off had we gone down that road less travelled.

I said it before if it was up to me, I would had traded the core 5 piece by piece since the Habs series. As I will adopt the Vegas model to run the team. That’s also why I don’t see how any management would continue to run the Core 5 if there is another first round exit this playoffs. By not resigning MM and JT, that’s 22mil on the cap room for UFA and trading. Would Leafs be able to replace MM and JT, absolutely not but will they be able to build a better team with 22mil, highly likely as the bar is set at getting into the 2nd round and not get blown out. The same goes to AM, Willie and Reilly too.

I had thoughts like this at the time, but I never said anything as I didn't expect anyone here would react rationally to it. I stuck to recommending shopping Marner after the MTL series and I took enough abuse for that. This idea of selling off the core though, I would have LOVED it. It would have been supremely radical, people here would be losing their minds as the "this is the way it's always done" and the "you just don't do that" crowds are so huge. The meltdowns would have been extremely entertaining, adopting the Vegas model would have probably led us to a fair bit of playoff success already and we'd be well positioned for the future as opposed to being in a position where our window is closing quite soon (leaving open the question of how open it ever was, really).

Teams will pay for different reasons such as just creating buzz, or having a great players to sell the game.
Beside owners not wanting to spend, I don’t see why teams like SJ, Ana, Utah, Hawks and even Islanders won’t sign MM or Rantanen for 12mil/yr.

Top UFAs will always be overpaid. Do they worth that contract is another story.

IMHO Marner is even worth 12 million or even more to teams that aren't very good, and therefore have no hope of goin on a playoff run.

 

[Racer88]

Choose whatever management group you want, doesn’t make your take any less egregious.

Name me a superstar in the Salary Cap era that their NHL Club let them walk to UFA because of poor playoff performance. I’ll wait, it’s never fcking happened ever.

Better yet, tell me a team that refused to pay a superstar because of lack of playoff success. Yup, I’ll wait. Never happened. Playoff performance has never been a MAJOR factor in contract negotiations. It’s definitely a part of it. But it doesn’t weigh as heavily as regular season. Contracts are primarily based on how much you produce in the regular season. All we hear when players talk about comparables is individual regular season statistics because everyone involved in sports know that playoff success has more to do with team.

No team has every had 4 forwards taking over 50% of the cap before so if management decides the want to change the mix of the core after 9 years of failure they have to let one or 2 of them walk. The only alternative is to sign them both and wait until they age out and start another rebuild.

 

[francis246]

Tell me which superstar UFA shit the bed as hard as Marner in the playoffs first. Every single person I listed in my original post (which had nothing to do with whether or not Marner would sign here) has been significantly deeper in the playoffs, with significantly better statistics. My whole original point was to MOVE on from this guy and his projected 12-13 mil cap hit so the Leafs could go deeper with better depth. My chirp at management was how soft they've been in negotiations. Go ahead and list all of the top contracts in the NHL and tell me the Leafs have done a great job, I'll wait.

I can name plenty of players from plenty of sports that were superstars and traded/unsigned due to team needs. Gretzky, Derozan, Clark, Esposito, Recchi, etc. This team has different needs than resigning Marner. Your egregious error was assuming that I meant they were stupid for signing superstars; negative. They were stupid for giving out insane contracts based on nothing BUT regular season performances. If management had factored in playoff performance, I doubt they would have attained the premium they did.

As for playoff performance being more of a "team" sport vs regular season, not sure I see your point. I think both are "team" sports. I don't see Matthews and Marner regularly dominating the regular season (Matthews has in terms of goal scoring). Hell, he hasn't even cracked 100 points in his career, but is paid like he's done it multiple times. Every superstar that has been resigned is either top of the league regularly in scoring, or goes deep in the playoffs. Why not hold our guys to the same standard?

I'm OK with us disagreeing, just don't take my words out of context.

All those players were traded. Not walked to UFA.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not exactly

Age 25 - peak production
Age 26-29 - 90% of peak production
29- decline accelerates
Approaching mid 30's - declines significantly


So if this is accurate... Marner peaked at 25, and now is holding 90% of that effectiness and next year will hold the 90% effectiveness but then by year 2 of a new contract the decline will accelerate downward. Not good news fot a player we are hoping will "improve" in upcoming playoffs.

From sportsnet article:

Scoring in the NHL is a young man’s game. Multiple studies have shown that offensive performance for NHL skaters peaks at the ages of 24 or 25. On average, we can expect players to maintain around 90 percent of their production through their age 29 season, but from that point on the decline tends to accelerate. This graph was created by Eric Tulsky to describe the average decline in Even Strength scoring (measured by points per 60 minutes of 5v5 TOI) as players age, and it fairly clearly indicates that the average player will see his scoring decline significantly as he approaches his mid-30s.

I'm aware of this, and considering where we're at as a team it doesn't make me happy. Not just when it comes to anticipating Marner being signed again for a massive cap hit, but the makeup of the entire team ATM with this context is not a pretty picture. Imagine where we might be had we sold off the entire core after losing to MTL. It would be other teams paying these 5 guys top dollar, and we could be stacked with young talent and extremely well positioned for the future. Oh well, I hope we win the cup this spring, then it will all be good. Considering how things have gone for us though, it feels like a massive long shot unless Woll/Stolarz learn how to score goals.

The Leafiest thing would be for us to finish 1st overall, then lose in the 1st round to either MTL or OTT who squeaked into the playoffs on the last day of the season.

 

[francis246]

No, you're right. Marner will get paid, that's not an interesting subject for discussion because ... he will get paid. A far more interesting question is how much of a contract should the Leafs be willing to give him.

As far as "That’s how sports has always worked", that's true but IMHO, that's not a good argument for doing anything. Let's not forget that every now and then, someone comes along, does things differently, people think they're idiots and then later, they're hailed as genius pioneers. See the post below - blow up the core after the MTL series and that could have been us. No guarantee it would have worked, but it might have, and what we did instead was do what teams have always done so we could hardly be worse off had we gone down that road less travelled.


I had thoughts like this at the time, but I never said anything as I didn't expect anyone here would react rationally to it. I stuck to recommending shopping Marner after the MTL series and I took enough abuse for that. This idea of selling off the core though, I would have LOVED it. It would have been supremely radical, people here would be losing their minds as the "this is the way it's always done" and the "you just don't do that" crowds are so huge. The meltdowns would have been extremely entertaining, adopting the Vegas model would have probably led us to a fair bit of playoff success already and we'd be well positioned for the future as opposed to being in a position where our window is closing quite soon (leaving open the question of how open it ever was, really).


IMHO Marner is even worth 12 million or even more to teams that aren't very good, and therefore have no hope of goin on a playoff run.

One hundred percent agree Gary but the best changes come from trades. There’s a reason why teams don’t walk their best players to free agency. It’s bad asset management. No one is saying don’t make changes, but this is one of the worst ways to make changes historically speaking. The teams that have changed their core have made trades that have benefited them.