Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Antropovsky]

You're hopeless. I've finished with Gary now it's your turn.

You have two choices.

You can use small samples but then you have to account for all the context items like, match ups, linemates, coaches, competition, goaltending, injuries, usage etc, but it's a ton of work and you don't have the skills to do it.

Or you can start using much larger samples where the context items average out. That's the reason for the large samples. Get it now?



You're gonna have to do the work. Trust me, you will learn a lot. Figure out how large the set has to be so that the context averages out and do if for all the major stats. It's very easy and won't take long at all. I've told you this before. Also do the defensive stats too.

Okay, as I suspected, you avoided the question. Gonna make me go get it.

See the post quoted below. Note another poster pointed out that you used a small sample size, contradicting your own advice. They attached your post Please explain how that post by you, didn't rely on a small sample size?

How were you able to conclude this statement without a small sample size?

Why is this a small sample size now? Earlier you were more than happy to proclaim this sample size as undeniable proof that "Marner can lead the team without Matthews at his best".

View attachment 957056

How is his opinion in any way different to yours if we're talking in terms of your standards?


Edit: I won't even get into which opinions I agree with and what I don't - you specifically impose measures on others that you yourself don't even follow, that's what my point is.

 

[francis246]

Probably not the best idea to stake your argument on Buffalos management.

You're actually going to compare that Buffalo team he was on to the Leafs? Take note that Eichel on a SHIT team was only a few points behind Marner every season he was on Buffalo.

I listed guys who ELEVATE (or at least don't evaporate) their games in the playoffs. Most of those guys have been to a Finals, or won a Cup. Compare what you want, but Marner isn't anywhere close to anyone I listed in terms of playoff performance. I would take Eichel over Marner if it were an option.

To think playoff performance doesn't factor into a players contract negotiations is willful ignorance. Keep believing management teams only pay guys based on regular season stats.

Choose whatever management group you want, doesn’t make your take any less egregious.

Name me a superstar in the Salary Cap era that their NHL Club let them walk to UFA because of poor playoff performance. I’ll wait, it’s never fcking happened ever.

Better yet, tell me a team that refused to pay a superstar because of lack of playoff success. Yup, I’ll wait. Never happened. Playoff performance has never been a MAJOR factor in contract negotiations. It’s definitely a part of it. But it doesn’t weigh as heavily as regular season. Contracts are primarily based on how much you produce in the regular season. All we hear when players talk about comparables is individual regular season statistics because everyone involved in sports know that playoff success has more to do with team.

 

[666]

Okay, as I suspected, you avoided the question. Gonna make me go get it.

See the post quoted below. Note another poster pointed out that you used a small sample size, contradicting your own advice. They attached your post Please explain how that post by you, didn't rely on a small sample size?

I responded to that guy two posts below his. Also my original post was just adding some context to someone else's post. Pay attention man.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Choose whatever management group you want, doesn’t make your take any less egregious.

Name me a superstar in the Salary Cap era that their NHL Club let them walk to UFA because of poor playoff performance. I’ll wait, it’s never fcking happened ever.

Better yet, tell me a team that refused to pay a superstar because of lack of playoff success. Yup, I’ll wait. Never happened. Playoff performance has never been a MAJOR factor in contract negotiations. It’s definitely a part of it. But it doesn’t weigh as heavily as regular season. Contracts are primarily based on how much you produce in the regular season. All we hear when players talk about comparables is individual regular season statistics because everyone involved in sports know that playoff success has more to do with team.

If playoffs didn't matter, he'd be signed by now. IF they sign him soon for like 13-14M per, and they lose in the 1st or 2nd round where is the path to get better? Let's see how the playoffs go before deciding what to do.

 

[francis246]

If playoffs didn't matter, he'd be signed by now. IF they sign him soon for like 13-14M per, and they lose in the 1st or 2nd round where is the path to get better? Let's see how the playoffs go before deciding what to do.

Again never said it doesn’t matter. I said it doesn’t play that big of a role. Whether Marner gets the money from the leafs or somewhere else, he’s getting paid. If the leafs care about his playoff performance, another team will sign him in UFA and not care about the playoff numbers. That’s how sports has always worked, am I wrong about that?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Again never said it doesn’t matter. I said it doesn’t play that big of a role. Whether Marner gets the money from the leafs or somewhere else, he’s getting paid. If the leafs care about his playoff performance, another team will sign him in UFA and not care about the playoff numbers. That’s how sports has always worked, am I wrong about that?

Sure, another team may not care because they just want to get to the playoffs consistently first. Yea, he gets you there, no doubt about it. For us, it's not good enough anymore just to get there.

 

[francis246]

Sure, another team may not care because they just want to get to the playoffs consistently first. Yea, he gets you there, no doubt about it. For us, it's not good enough anymore just to get there.

Absolutely that’s where it comes down to the individual teams situation. Marner I’d say is a unique case where the team cannot ignore his playoff performance. It has to be factored in before they give him the money because we’ve had so little success with him and the rest of the core. Barely even a round 2 appearance. So the leafs are forced to consider that even though they probably think he’s a hell of a player for them.

 

[ToneDog]

Absolutely that’s where it comes down to the individual teams situation. Marner I’d say is a unique case where the team cannot ignore his playoff performance. It has to be factored in before they give him the money because we’ve had so little success with him and the rest of the core. Barely even a round 2 appearance. So the leafs are forced to consider that even though they probably think he’s a hell of a player for them.

Have no fear, the only ones happy with Marner's next contract will be Marner, the Marner camp and Jack Lambert and we'll have 8 years of the usual suspects telling us how much Marner is worth his cap hit.

 

[ACC1224]

Absolutely that’s where it comes down to the individual teams situation. Marner I’d say is a unique case where the team cannot ignore his playoff performance. It has to be factored in before they give him the money because we’ve had so little success with him and the rest of the core. Barely even a round 2 appearance. So the leafs are forced to consider that even though they probably think he’s a hell of a player for them.

I don't think they're looking for a core change but if they were it seems pretty obvious that Nylander would be the one they would look to move of the three.

 

[ToneDog]

Have no fear, the only ones happy with Marner's next contract will be Marner, the Marner camp and Jack Lambert and we'll have 8 years of the usual suspects telling us how much Marner is worth his cap hit.

Can't say I miss him but what ever happened to the guy who argued Marner was a bargain the year of the Canadian Division? Talk about a toxic Marner fanboy.

 

[666]

I'd like to point out that Nylander signed Jan 8th and it's now Jan 10th.

 

[francis246]

Have no fear, the only ones happy with Marner's next contract will be Marner, the Marner camp and Jack Lambert and we'll have 8 years of the usual suspects telling us how much Marner is worth his cap hit.

If the cap goes up as projected I don’t think many will care as time goes on. The leafs will get more playoff wins. They have stable goaltending. Even this year I see a third round appearance potentially depending on who our adds are at the deadline.

If the leafs never win the cup it’s not going to be because of the Marner contract specifically. It would be multiple factors.

 

[Gabriel426]

Top players in the league will always get paid. Whether it is Team A or Team B, they will get paid. Bc top players usually brings in money with perfromances, buzz….

Let’s be honest here, the Leafs will bring in revenue even if they are the bottom the Leagues with Kampf as their 1C. In a way, Leafs as a team is playing on a different level than 90% of NHL teams.

Due to that Leafs really should be striving the win the Cup instead of just gathering top talents and sell jerseys.

I said it before if it was up to me, I would had traded the core 5 piece by piece since the Habs series. As I will adopt the Vegas model to run the team. That’s also why I don’t see how any management would continue to run the Core 5 if there is another first round exit this playoffs. By not resigning MM and JT, that’s 22mil on the cap room for UFA and trading. Would Leafs be able to replace MM and JT, absolutely not but will they be able to build a better team with 22mil, highly likely as the bar is set at getting into the 2nd round and not get blown out. The same goes to AM, Willie and Reilly too.

Look at TB, they didn’t resign their Captain, 1st overall and 2 time Cup Champs(even though he sucks in the playoffs), and they replaced him with another player and is exactly where they were last season.
Vegas didn’t resign Marchessault(Conn Symthe Winner in 2023) and they are even better than last season, although guys being healthy played a role too.
Islanders lost JT but ended up spreading that money on good players and ended up going to back to back ECF.

 

[Antropovsky]

I responded to that guy two posts below his. Also my original post was just adding some context to someone else's post. Pay attention man.

Here is your response to "that guy" . You didn't explain why you are able to use Matthews missing games in your quote, but dismissed others for using the very same stat:

What? He used a 14 game sample size of a cherry picked stat (with an even smaller sample size) where the teams best player was missing.

I compared Marner's entire season (so far) to the other stars who weren't missing their best player.

If you are constantly dismissing small sample sizes as insignificant, why bring up Matthews missing 14 games to favorably compare Marner to other stars? You already said the time he missed is too small of a sample size to others. You can’t have it both ways.

 

[666]

Here is your response to "that guy" . You didn't explain why you are able to use Matthews missing games in your quote, but dismissed others for using the very same stat:



If you are constantly dismissing small sample sizes as insignificant, why bring up Matthews missing 14 games to favorably compare Marner to other stars? You already said the time he missed is too small of a sample size to others. You can’t have it both ways.

The sample size was the entire season so far. The missing Matthews was a simple example of context. At the time Matthews had been injured or out about half of the sample. Let's be clear using half the season like that was a smallish sample too but the context and intent was obvious. Now do your homework and learn what a good sample size is?