Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[BraveCanadian]

I must have missed all of the posts proclaiming Marner will struggle in the regular season on a contract year.

You must have missed the zillions of posts that he wasn't even going to be here too, then.

 

[Confucius]

The same crow that’s been eaten after the past eight playoffs?

Last offseason saw the most intense pressure from both media and fans on Leafs management to trade one of the Core Four. And over thenlast few, the most significant push has been to move Marner.

Those are the facts.

If Shanahan signs Marner to a long-term NMC, and the Leafs are eliminated in the playoffs like they have been for the past 7–8 years, the backlash will be incredible. I’m sure management/ownership is considering this very carefully.

However, Shanahan probably realizes hes toast anyways if the Leafs dont make the 3rd round at least. Not sure if Tree wants to lock himself into this core though.

The only win win is sign an extension but get a discount.

 

[thewave]

The same crow that’s been eaten after the past eight playoffs?

Last offseason saw the most intense pressure from both media and fans on Leafs management to trade one of the Core Four. And over thenlast few, the most significant push has been to move Marner.

Those are the facts.

If Shanahan signs Marner to a long-term NMC, and the Leafs are eliminated in the playoffs like they have been for the past 7–8 years, the backlash will be incredible. I’m sure management/ownership is considering this very carefully.

However, Shanahan probably realizes hes toast anyways if the Leafs dont make the 3rd round at least. Not sure if Tree wants to lock himself into this core though.

I think they are very aware of how bad the last PO went.

 

[Antropovsky]

The only win win is sign an extension but get a discount.

Depends on size of discount. Also have to consider that Mcdavid, whose never been shy to express his love for the Leafs (and trains with Matthews in offseason), is a UFA at the end of next season.

Im sure Leaf ownership are salivating at the money he would rake them in.

If Leafs have the core 4 signed to huge nmc deals, they cant afford Mcdavid.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Looks, folks. Someone brought me here. I don't want to be here any more than you want me to be here.

Stop flaming other posters, stop talking about ignore lists, stop talking about what "they" are doing (it's not subtle), and stop poking one another's buttons.

 

[DarkKnight]

I must have missed all of the posts proclaiming Marner will struggle in the regular season on a contract year.

There were plenty of posts saying he wouldn't do as well under Berube to be fair. He's thrived and recorded even more ice time. Also, the pressure of him being unsigned, many argued he'd feel it. So....

 

[Kiwi]

Depends on size of discount. Also have to consider that Mcdavid, whose never been shy to express his love for the Leafs (and trains with Matthews in offseason), is a UFA at the end of next season.

Im sure Leaf ownership are salivating at the money he would rake them in.

If Leafs have the core 4 signed to huge nmc deals, they cant afford Mcdavid.

You don't make financial decisions based on somebody maybe becoming available in a couple of years time

McDavid has already signed an 8 year deal with Edmonton, there pretty good, I'm sure he has a lot of mates on that team

Just remember when everybody was saying Matthews wasn't going to stay here, once you've been in a place for awhile a lot of people don't want to change that

 

[ACC1224]

There were plenty of posts saying he wouldn't do as well under Berube to be fair. He's thrived and recorded even more ice time. Also, the pressure of him being unsigned, many argued he'd feel it. So....

“He’s not in their plans. They made their decision once they signed Nylander “ That was always a good one

 

[All Mod Cons]

Marner must be the highest paid player in the league imo. Get it done, 8 x 16.25m.

And then give him shares in the amount he feels he is owed from before. Add in any amount he feels slighted by.

 

[Mr_Fun]

Depends on size of discount. Also have to consider that Mcdavid, whose never been shy to express his love for the Leafs (and trains with Matthews in offseason), is a UFA at the end of next season.

Im sure Leaf ownership are salivating at the money he would rake them in.

If Leafs have the core 4 signed to huge nmc deals, they cant afford Mcdavid.

I just don't know if that one would ever happen, given our/the situation. It would likely mean not signing Marner and having a depleted lineup for a year and then hoping McDavid decides he wants to come here when nobody could really know where he wants to sign. I mean, if we actually knew for sure McDavid was going to sign here, then it might be a worthwhile option.

 

[thusk]

It goes both ways.
- Marner had the best 5v5 goal scorer for majority of games since 2020.
- He had a players coach/offensive coach since 2020.
- Hes had Nylander, Matthews, Tavares on the PP since 2019. No other team has that kind of goal scoring power on a PP.

Who does Kaprizov have for linemates?

Who does Panarin have for linemates?

They blow the next linemate forwards out of water in points. They dont need elite linemates.

Before Matthews came back, Marner was slowly creeping back to a 100 point pace and being at risk of not reaching it again. Additionally, not only is he not a goal scoring threat 5v5 the 14 games Matthews was out but for a playmaker he had a measly 1 primary assist. Anyone watching him knows hes not really setting up goals or many chances for his teammates out there.

WITHOUT Matthews
10 goal- 22 pts
55 goal range and 120 pts range

WITH Matthews
4 goal 32 pts in 26 game

13 goal range and 107 pts pace

+42 goal and + 13 pts pace without Matthews but marner producing because of Matthews?!?!?!?

 

[Antropovsky]

There were plenty of posts saying he wouldn't do as well under Berube to be fair. He's thrived and recorded even more ice time. Also, the pressure of him being unsigned, many argued he'd feel it. So....

5v5 Marner is having one of his worst statistical years.

He's above his averages on the power play and with an empty net.

I dont think anyone would say this about a star player "Xxx coach is coming in, now watch their powerplay points crumble."

Also, Berube has frequently commented in postgames that cerrain players are being overly fancy, not playing a direct "north-south" game, and are not going to the net. He's said they cant be too fancy when specifically addressing the leafs top players. We know Tavares isnt fancy, and Matthews can be very N-S. So that leaves Marner and Nylander. Additionally, when recently asked about putting Nylander, Tavares Marner together - Berube specifically said they cant play fancy. Lastly, Berube has specifically responded to a reporters question regarding Marner having a net oresense and he responded we coach our players to always have two on the net.

 

[Racer88]

With the cap rising and Nylander haven been given $11.5m, $13m makes sense but it would be hard to swallow if we see a repeat of his last 12-15 playoff games.

Let’s see if the cap really rises first……we have seen and heard this song and dance before.
When Trump sends the globe into a worldwide recession let’s see how the cap does

 

[Its not your fault]

Probably won't win a trade so might as well sign him. His at 11 so worst is maybe 3 million extra hit.

 

[Its not your fault]

Also protects them against their own stupidity. Imagine how much the corec4 would milk them for if there was no cap? But it would not be our money so fans would not care.

1 million above the best offer? However Tavares under 2 million on best offer. Ex San Jose 13 million

 

[thusk]

5v5 Marner is having one of his worst statistical years.

He's above his averages on the power play and with an empty net.

I dont think anyone would say this about a star player "Xxx coach is coming in, now watch their powerplay points crumble."

Also, Berube has frequently commented in postgames that cerrain players are being overly fancy, not playing a direct "north-south" game, and are not going to the net. He's said they cant be too fancy when specifically addressing the leafs top players. We know Tavares isnt fancy, and Matthews can be very N-S. So that leaves Marner and Nylander. Additionally, when recently asked about putting Nylander, Tavares Marner together - Berube specifically said they cant play fancy. Lastly, Berube has specifically responded to a reporters question regarding Marner having a net oresense and he responded we coach our players to always have two on the net.

Jack Hugues 44% of his production on Pp
Kucherov / point got 42%

last year exemple
Kaprisov last 43 % of his pts on PP
38% for Rantanen
panarin/ Kucherov 37%

Did you ever see anyone complain about how they got those pts? No nobody... But marner at 36% let's go it's a good reason to complain about him..

 

[Antropovsky]

WITHOUT Matthews
10 goal- 22 pts
55 goal range and 120 pts range

WITH Matthews
4 goal 32 pts in 26 game

13 goal range and 107 pts pace

+42 goal and + 13 pts pace without Matthews but marner producing because of Matthews?!?!?!?

Happy to discuss:

Matthews missed 14 games. Marner points with Matthews out of the lineup :

5v5:
213 minutes
3 goals 6 points
1.67 p/60
-1.67 p/60 would place him 200th overall in league last year.
-Marners worst statistical point per/60 in hia career: 2.03 in 2018.
-Marners best statistical season per/60 in hia career: 3.47 in 2022.

Powerplay
14 gp 3 goals 12 points
Empty net
1g 3 points
Total
14 gp 22 total points


So yes, I think its very incorrect to suggest he flourished with Matthews out of the lineup. Sure its just 17% percent of a season but its what we have with Matthews out 5v5.

Marner did flourish on the PP playing qith Tavares and Nylander who both are having excellent seasons. Marner also produced as many empty net points in the 14 games as he did all of last season.

 

[thusk]

Happy to discuss:

Matthews missed 14 games. Marner points with Matthews out of the lineup :

5v5:
213 minutes
3 goals 6 points
1.67 p/60
1.67 p/60 would place him 200th overall in league last year.
Powerplay
14 gp 3 goals 12 points
Empty net
1g 3 points
Total
14 gp 22 total points

Marners worst statistical point per/60 in hia career: 2.03 in 2018.

So yes, I think its very incorrect to suggest he flourished with Matthews out of the lineup. Sure its just 17% percent of a season but its what we have with Matthews out 5v5.

Marner did flourish on the PP playing qith Tavares and Nylander who both are having excellent seasons. Marner also produced as many empty net points in the 14 games as he did all of last season.

Yeah he had 13 pts over closiest leafs player

Its 30% of nylander full production and 33% of tavares. He played 24 of his game with a player dealing with a injury who was pretty bad. But it's because of everybody in the team except him and his empty net pts( whos not much higher than the 2 guy behind him in leafs pts ladder). Go ahead

 

[Antropovsky]

Yeah he had 13 pts over closiest leafs player

Its 30% of nylander full production and 33% of tavares. He played 24 of his game with a player dealing with a injury who was pretty bad. But it's because of everybody in the team except him and his empty net pts( whos not much higher than the 2 guy behind him in leafs pts ladder). Go ahead

Im mearly clarifying my post that you objected to. Your changing the subject now but ill discuss.

Since you brought up Teammates and Linemates:

Im calculating:

Nylander with 20 points in Matthews 14 game absence.
5v5
3 goals, 7 points
3 primary assists, 1 secondary
1 g vs Vegas
1 g vs Jets
1 g vs Islanders
Empty net points
1

Marner with 22 points in Matthews 14 game absence.
5v5
3 goals, 6 points
1 primary assist, 2 secondary assists
2 goals Detroit, 1 vs Utah
Empty net points
3

Nylanders and Marners 5v5 centers over those 14 games Matthews was out:

Marner had Domi for 3 games. Rest of the games were primarily Tavares as his center.

Nylander had Tavares for 3 games. rest were primarily Domi, Kampf and Holmberg as his center.

 

[thusk]

Im mearly clarifying my post that you objected to. Your changing the subject now but ill discuss.

Since you brought up Teammates and Linemates:

Im calculating:

Nylander with 20 points in Matthews 14 game absence.
5v5
3 goals, 7 points
3 primary assists, 1 secondary
1 g vs Vegas
1 g vs Jets
1 g vs Islanders
Empty net points
1

Marner with 22 points in Matthews 14 game absence.
5v5
3 goals, 6 points
1 primary assist, 2 secondary assists
2 goals Detroit, 1 vs Utah
Empty net points
3

Nylanders and Marners 5v5 centers over those 14 games Matthews was out:

Marner had Domi for 3 games. Rest of the games were primarily Tavares as his center.

Nylander had Tavares for 3 games. rest were primarily Domi, Kampf and Holmberg as his center.

1- Start to take the good stats exemple Nylander ha 7 goal 11 assist ( not 20 pts) in 15 game( not 14 game) with matthews out

2- Empty net pts are not 5v5 stats but 5v6

3- Who care about pp or 5v5 points. Did you ever heard Kucherov was worst because they got 42 % of their pts on pp... and on tampa 2 cup run it was 47%. Did you ever heard someone complaining about how kucherov got his stats? No because nobody care... They produced and made the team win, its the only thing people care about.

4- If you want to know why Marner always playing on top line unstead of Nylander

Nylander is a free electron who will do his thing whatever who's he's playing with

Marner is kind of player making people around him better 200 feet of the ice

 

[ACC1224]

At the half way point

 

[Dekes For Days]

P.S. If Marner gets less than Ranta, I will have no complaints. If they pay him more that Ranta again after the last 6 year sample size, then you can bet your ass that I will want this core blown up if they do not get to round #3.

After the last 6 year sample size, Marner should be getting more than Rantanen.

P/GP
Rantanen: 1.24
Marner: 1.23

P/GP (EN removed)
Marner: 1.16
Rantanen: 1.12

5v5 P/60
Marner: 2.84
Rantanen: 2.31

PP P/60
Marner: 7.00
Rantanen: 6.60

Add in that Marner is an elite PKer and defender, and he's easily worth more.

 

[ToneDog]

Jack Hugues 44% of his production on Pp
Kucherov / point got 42%

last year exemple
Kaprisov last 43 % of his pts on PP
38% for Rantanen
panarin/ Kucherov 37%

Did you ever see anyone complain about how they got those pts? No nobody... But marner at 36% let's go it's a good reason to complain about him..

Everybody you mention is already making less than Marner. LOL. Did you know Kutch put up 144 points last year and won the Art Ross. I am sure when Marner comes close to that or is not asking to be overpaid again, nobody will be bringing up his empty calorie points.

If Kaprizov or Ranta were Leafs and asking for $14m, you can bet your life, we'd be bringing up empty calorie points and one series win in nine attempts.

 

[666]

At the half way point

View attachment 957514

It would be nice if we had better defensive stats. As great as he's been offensively he's been even better defensively. The number of opposition chances he eliminates by back checking, getting in passing lanes, forcing turnovers etc etc is impressive. Unfortunately a lot of these things aren't measured and happen away from the puck so people don't even notice them.

 

[Jojalu]

The only win win is sign an extension but get a discount.

Win/win would also be win the Cup and he wins Conn Smyth. At least for me.