I want to see another playoff run before signing him so I'd wait, but to sign him now, I'd want him to come in at 12ish. His ceiling is Draisaitl who is a clear better player making 14, I can't see him making more than him as Drai has a better track record + playoffs. Just my opinon, but lets let's say in some hypothetical he finishes with 115 and does well in the playoffs, than I would be willing to pay the x million in extra as insurance. I don't think he can do anything to get more than 14 x 8 and even then I don't think anyone offers 16 to him.
That 1.6-2 million dollars could be the difference between a 5 million dollar defencemen or a 7 million dollar one, or rather that could be the difference
between having to let someone go to sign a roster player or losing them for marner. I think it's being undervalued a bit, just like it was during nylander's signing