Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Dekes For Days]

Fair, but any examples from the last half decade or so? Marner was 10 years old when Gomez signed that deal
It's also worth noting the most recent of those, Panarin also was only able to sign for 7 years as a full free agent. Is the 8th year of guaranteed money deal worth nothing?

I don't think you can really limit the time period (especially to one with the abnormal flat cap) when we're talking about such rare players and contract ranges. Using cap hit percentages allows us to compare across bigger time periods. If anything, the current cap environment is much, much closer to the early cap era than it is to the early 2020s. You could argue that the 8th year (if that's the route we go) should knock the price down a bit, but Marner is also much better than Panarin when he signed.

A lot of people still don't seem to get how good Marner is. Since we got back to the normal league in 2021, he's been the 5th best producer at 5v5 (0.05 behind 2nd) and the 6th best producer on the PP (0.06 behind 5th), while facing the toughest matchups and bringing high-end defense and PKing. That's a very rare and valuable player. Quite frankly, the closest players to him that have signed in recent history are Matthews, Mackinnon, and Draisaitl, and they all got 15-16%.

 

[francis246]

Same coach that should have scratched holmberg or press boxed reeves and play lily yeah sure we’ll see

Liljegren stinks, all you have to do is go watch SJ games. He hasn’t magically improved with more ice time. He’s still making the same mistakes and turning over the puck a lot.

 

[notbias]

Liljegren stinks, all you have to do is go watch SJ games. He hasn’t magically improved with more ice time. He’s still making the same mistakes and turning over the puck a lot.

I was genuinely curious how he was doing since his stats are good...

Speculation: - Player Discussion: Timothy Liljegren

Been good?

forums.hfboards.com

Stat-wise he is 50% G (2nd for D on the team), and 3.6% rel xGF (4th on the team and driving play better than most teammates)

San Jose fans seem to think he is doing well in a 2nd pairing role (on a terrible team).

Why do you think he is doing bad?

I think Liljegren can figure it out somewhere, so not surprised if he is performing better elsewhere.

 

[Jojalu]

You have Eichel ahead of Marner when they have Identical production and Marner has a goal more than Eichel?! lol, if Eichel is good enough to be in the conversation Marner is as well. Their production is literally identical.

I think it comes down to just overall impact on team. I think Reinhart is the favourite you could throw Jesper Bratt in the convo. No Edmonton player is the conversation right now they just haven’t been good enough as a team

Edm is ahead of Col, TB and 2 points behind Fla and Tor.

Should Mack, Rantanen, Reinhart and Kuch all be out of the conversation

 

[Darcy Tucker]

Edm is ahead of Col, TB and 2 points behind Fla and Tor.

Should Mack, Rantanen, Reinhart and Kuch all be out of the conversation

Scoring is up and we are arguing about defensive specialists instead of super stars. Marner may have found his niche and made some bucks off it. Good for the guy. Maybe he can grow a beard and be viking. One day we'll be on. Ship. It.

 

[666]

The samples of AM 5v5 production was posted here and include the last 5 years or more. AM conclusively was scoring at a faster clip without MM.

5 years is a little too long and includes the Covid seasons.

Matthews last 3 full seasons:5v5

With	TOI With	Goals/60	Total Assists/60
Mitchell Marner	2008	1.64	1.34
William Nylander	1026	1.34	1.46

 

[Roo]

Same coach that should have scratched holmberg or press boxed reeves and play lily yeah sure we’ll see

Last I checked, we're atop our division - so he's clearly doing something right. If he thinks its the right thing to do, he will do it. I don't see Berube letting the players dictate how we play. They clearly respect him and have bought in.

Here is the proof:

 

[thewave]

5 years is a little too long and includes the Covid seasons.

Matthews last 3 full seasons:5v5

With	TOI With	Goals/60	Total Assists/60
Mitchell Marner	2008	1.64	1.34
William Nylander	1026	1.34	1.46

Close enough, last year was an exceptional year as well. I think the main point in this is that they should all be driving a line and balancing the minutes out so they don't burnout.

Mitch looks great with JT. Willy is already paid so they should get him to get l3 cooking or something. AM was good with Knies and a guy like Domi or whatever.

 

[arso40]

Liljegren stinks, all you have to do is go watch SJ games. He hasn’t magically improved with more ice time. He’s still making the same mistakes and turning over the puck a lot.

I’m watching Timmins turning the pucc over at will and getting a pass lol regardless obviously I have my opinion on that particular move but regardless

Last I checked, we're atop our division - so he's clearly doing something right. If he thinks its the right thing to do, he will do it. I don't see Berube letting the players dictate how we play. They clearly respect him and have bought in.

Here is the proof:

View attachment 944792

Our goal against is a result of better goaltending that should be blatantly obvious there might be smaller factors as well but the main difference is goaltending think otherwise if you’d like

 

[DarkKnight]

Liljegren stinks, all you have to do is go watch SJ games. He hasn’t magically improved with more ice time. He’s still making the same mistakes and turning over the puck a lot.

I said when we traded him, he'd be fine on an absolute garbage D core. Who cares, he wasn't doing anything here, he routinely was pulled for playoffs, he was horrific last year, he isn't what you want to make a deep run. Period. Is he an NHL D man? Yes. Is he an NHL D man on a good group? Nope. Soft and low IQ under pressure, buh bye. Wish you well, never ever miss you

 

[Stephen]

As Versteeg said and has been my position, you wait to see how it plays out before you decide if you want to sign him and how much to offer. Of course this is a franchise that has not won a cup since 1967, so no surprise they will make the wrong move. It is less than a year since watching Willie morph into a 120 point player only to return to the old PPG Willie the minute after caving to him. You think the idiots would have learned something.

It's also not that simple.

You could come to the conclusion that Marner's the wrong stuff and he will never deliver in the playoffs.

But you also can't walk away unless there's a superior replacement ready, willing and capable to come here at similar dollars to keep this level of success going for the next half decade or so. This summer there's a Mikko Rantanen on the market, so there's something out there, but it's a moon shot. If you could swing it, it would be like your Huberdeau for Tkachuk type star trade.

The downside to committing to Marner is he's a playoff dud, but the risk isn't that high since you're just going to be stuck at the same level.

 

[LeafEgo]

It's also not that simple.

You could come to the conclusion that Marner's the wrong stuff and he will never deliver in the playoffs.

But you also can't walk away unless there's a superior replacement ready, willing and capable to come here at similar dollars to keep this level of success going for the next half decade or so. This summer there's a Mikko Rantanen on the market, so there's something out there, but it's a moon shot. If you could swing it, it would be like your Huberdeau for Tkachuk type star trade.

The downside to committing to Marner is he's a playoff dud, but the risk isn't that high since you're just going to be stuck at the same level.

If you came to that conclusion of course you would walk away. A replacement option wouldn't even need to be immediately available.

As unusual a situation as it is, Marner needs to prove this playoffs that he, in combination with this team, works. That information is critical heading into the offseason at this juncture, and is probably only being tested another time because of the contract.

So far so good. Go Mitch!

 

[ToneDog]

If you came to that conclusion of course you would walk away. A replacement option wouldn't even need to be immediately available.

As unusual a situation as it is, Marner needs to prove this playoffs that he, in combination with this team, works. That information is critical heading into the offseason at this juncture, and is probably only being tested another time because of the contract.

So far so good. Go Mitch!

We could also get a preview by how he performs in this 4 nations tourney, assuming it is not a shinny tournament.

I would rather take a step back rather than locking into and overpaying a playoff "dud". Then again, I don't have to answer the the season ticket subscribers who need to be entertained for 41 home games.