Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Evilhomer]

Shouldn't be an issue right? I must have read 5000 times this last summer than playoffs have zero bearing on with players get paid.

What's the standard the Marner PR crew is going with today?

I don't fall on either side of this issue. To be honest, I think arguing about whether he is signed or not signed is a bit silly because I think it's 100% guaranteed that the Leafs will resign him. They can't trade him, and there is no way they are letting him walk for nothing. Whether anyone likes it or not, all roads lead to the same place, which is him signing with the Leafs.

 

[notDatsyuk]

That's not what I said. I thought responding with the type of stats to use would be useful, since you were using the wrong type. I thought you'd know what defensive metrics are, since we've been over this so many times, but I guess you forgot again.

It was your absolutely typical vague response when asked a serious question.

 

[thewave]

I don't fall on either side of this issue. To be honest, I think arguing about whether he is signed or not signed is a bit silly because I think it's 100% guaranteed that the Leafs will resign him. They can't trade him, and there is no way they are letting him walk for nothing. Whether anyone likes it or not, all roads lead to the same place, which is him signing with the Leafs.

The important thing here is always lost. Can the team be competitive with an internal cap structure like this?

I think not.

Tanev OEL and Rielly are on the books a while and they are going to decline. We are back at the argument, is this a team being made to win or entertain. I think it's pretty obvious.

 

[Evilhomer]

The important thing here is always lost. Can the team be competitive with an internal cap structure like this?

This team will almost certainly finish top 5 in the league this season, if not first overall, with this salary structure. I would argue that is pretty competitive. Maybe the problem in prior years was the coaching, defense and goaltending, all of which have largely been fixed.

 

[thewave]

This team will almost certainly finish top 5 in the league this season, if not first overall, with this salary structure. I would argue that is pretty competitive. Maybe the problem in prior years was the coaching, defense and goaltending, all of which have largely been fixed.

Are you saying we are a cup contender? It's fine to say yes. I probably agree but how many cracks at it do we have? Keep in mind the D core contracts and age + tender contracts in year 3. Most teams don't get it first time, not even second on a good team with a deep run. This team is going over the hill in year 3. In other words we need to win in the next couple years.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Incorrect. Many teams do not hit the cap and float under the cap to remain in business. They also require equalization payments. The reasoning for the cap is to limit the competitive advantage of large markets.

Inflating the value of "good players" this fast will leave those teams in a bind paying more for lesser quality. The tiers of players will sfan out.

For instance Knies. He won't stay with us because he can get 9m elsewhere. He naturally should be a 7m probably if it keeps going this way. In Toronto with MM making 13.8m he won't be viable. Goalies will also look at this and say where is mine.

100% a chain reaction baked into the cake that apparently they do not see. The only solution to stop the runaway train is to play hardball and if they do not, you will have a lockout for one. The other thing will be a tier of players...

The 10m+ players and the jobbers making peanuts with no inbetween

You missed my point and I'm ok with that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

For instance Knies. He won't stay with us because he can get 9m elsewhere.

I'm not sure how somebody could spend 6 years upset at the Matthews/Marner/Nylander contracts and then simultaneously argue that career 38 point pace Knies "can get 9m elsewhere".

 

[thewave]

I'm not sure how somebody could spend 6 years upset at the Matthews/Marner/Nylander contracts and then simultaneously argue that career 38 point pace Knies "can get 9m elsewhere".

0 cups. Likelihood of cup still low equals failed rebuild.

 

[DarkKnight]

We aren't breaking up this core. Nylander and Matthews are both over paid. Marner will be over paid. If you can't accept we're "stuck" with this core and their salaries, then really the only option left is to find another team. This is it guys, nobody has a gun to your head, log off and go follow the hard nosed Avalanche, that ain't TO. Is it right? Nope. Is it reality that whining won't change? You betcha.

I still think this core may bust through, that's why I still watch. Imo, this style we're playing now, the buy in from Mitch and Willie in particular, has me with a sliver of optimism. If all hope is lost and they're a bunch of over paid bums, then reaccess your need to follow them and/or why forever toxicity is attractive to you.

Marner getting paid, here. Such pointless energy. Cope harder I guess.

 

[Dekes For Days]

0 cups. Likelihood of cup still low equals failed rebuild.

We have one of the higher chances at a cup in the league, and having that year after year is a pretty successful rebuild, but I'm not sure what any of that has to do with Knies' contract.

 

[ULF_55]

$11.5 million over 8 years would be the easy breezy sweet spot for Marner. Taking no less than Nylander, which is obviously important, no ego flex, feels team friendly-ish from a relative cap increase POV, still generational money. If he took that on this round it would feel like you could live with it and still build something around him.

8 years and $11.5 million is $92 million.
7 years from another team at $13 million is $91 million.

If the negotiations are contentious and the ask/demand creeps into Mackinnon and Matthews territory, with threats to test the market, it probably won’t end up in a good spot.

Pastrnak 12.8% with 110 and 113 points. 61 goals and 47 goals.
$11.250mm

The Little m: $97mm Cap.
$97mm * 12.5% = $12.125 (less production than Pastrnak, especially goals)
$97mm * 13.2% = $12.804 (Leafs bonus rate .1 more than Nylander)

Term?
4 years.

 

[Stephen]

We have one of the higher chances at a cup in the league, and having that year after year is a pretty successful rebuild, but I'm not sure what any of that has to do with Knies' contract.

Fitness to win a cup shouldn’t be quantified based on chance. This isn’t Dungeons and Dragons.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Fitness to win a cup shouldn’t be quantified based on chance. This isn’t Dungeons and Dragons.

What are you even talking about? Every team has some level of chance. No team is guaranteed the cup.

 

[Stephen]

Pastrnak 12.8% with 110 and 113 points. 61 goals and 47 goals.
$11.250mm

The Little m: $97mm Cap.
$97mm * 12.5% = $12.125 (less production than Pastrnak, especially goals)
$97mm * 13.2% = $12.804 (Leafs bonus rate .1 more than Nylander)

Term?
4 years.

I think the Leafs just need a big boy heart to heart conversarion with him. Like Mitch, let’s live within this range and focus on accomplishing something special on the ice. You are going to be fabulously wealthy anyway within a couple of million here and there over the life of the contract. Winning and being loved in your hometown is on the table.

 

[Stephen]

What are you even talking about? Every team has some level of chance. No team is guaranteed the cup.

I’d be surprised if teams identified themselves based on their percentage of winning. “We’re a 4% to win team but hope to be a 7% chance team to win.” It’s nonsense.

 

[francis246]

It's also always a personal matter because nobody ever wants to air the dirty laundry. Guys go to rehab but say personal matter, this and that never the truth and almost always the best PR spin.

We can both have a standoff though. Prove us wrong. Prove you're right without citing a canned statement.

The Babcock thing though, that did happen and is factual and could be very telling in the way of plausibility.

It's also always a personal matter because nobody ever wants to air the dirty laundry. Guys go to rehab but say personal matter, this and that never the truth and almost always the best PR spin.

We can both have a standoff though. Prove us wrong. Prove you're right without citing a canned statement.

The Babcock thing though, that did happen and is factual and could be very telling in the way of plausibility.

Where did you hear it was because he was unhappy with role? Doing some digging, Marner had some sort of mental health/confidence issue and the hunters sent him home / decided he needed to go home to work on that. I think he was boarderline ready to quit hockey. That’s why the Hunters went to go see him afterwards and convince him to come back and play. Did not see anything related to him being upset with the role he had in London. Just seems like you’re reaching and misrepresenting what actually happened.

 

[thewave]

Pastrnak 12.8% with 110 and 113 points. 61 goals and 47 goals.
$11.250mm

The Little m: $97mm Cap.
$97mm * 12.5% = $12.125 (less production than Pastrnak, especially goals)
$97mm * 13.2% = $12.804 (Leafs bonus rate .1 more than Nylander)

Term?
4 years.

I could argue Marners number down based on lack of playoff success. So maybe the 12.5% you say is 12%. What is that? Probably a little over Nylanders 11.5m

 

[francis246]

Incorrect. Many teams do not hit the cap and float under the cap to remain in business. They also require equalization payments. The reasoning for the cap is to limit the competitive advantage of large markets.

Inflating the value of "good players" this fast will leave those teams in a bind paying more for lesser quality. The tiers of players will sfan out.

For instance Knies. He won't stay with us because he can get 9m elsewhere. He naturally should be a 7m probably if it keeps going this way. In Toronto with MM making 13.8m he won't be viable. Goalies will also look at this and say where is mine.

100% a chain reaction baked into the cake that apparently they do not see. The only solution to stop the runaway train is to play hardball and if they do not, you will have a lockout for one. The other thing will be a tier of players...

The 10m+ players and the jobbers making peanuts with no inbetween

You come up with some of the most insane numbers. Where the hell do you think Knies is getting 9 million?

We aren’t losing Knies. If anything I’m pretty sure we now have some leverage with Knies and I think an 8 year deal is coming. Especially after this concussion. He will not do a short term deal. Knies on a 6-8 year deal at somewhere between 6.5-7.5 is what’s going to happen. Knies will not be making anywhere near 9. Unless a team is willing to offersheet him.

 

[ULF_55]

I think the Leafs just need a big boy heart to heart conversarion with him. Like Mitch, let’s live within this range and focus on accomplishing something special on the ice. You are going to be fabulously wealthy anyway within a couple of million here and there over the life of the contract. Winning and being loved in your hometown is on the table.

That would be nice.

I very much doubt that influences Ferris.

 

[VanW27]

I myself think he should have been gone long ago, but regardless of that or what anyone else thinks 2 things are clearly true:

1. The Leafs will most likely resign him to a very big contract

2. When he's confident, shooting the puck and playing like this he's and incredible player.

Get the guy to a sports Psychiatrist. He's too good to play like he does in the playoffs. It's nothing to do with size/ speed/toughness or whatever other physical trait. He's a guy who gets in his own head when things go poorly. If hes here the #1 priority for this team needs to be to get Marners head straightened out so he can be the player he can be when the games matter.

 

[Stephen]

That would be nice.

I very much doubt that influences Ferris.

Ferris is free to push negotiations to whatever extremes he wants but I guess at some point the player will just end up in Utah or Seattle something if Toronto can’t accommodate. If there’s a value to being in Toronto that needs to be baked into the AAV.

 

[francis246]

The Lou nonsense was real too. Apparently his camp was vindictive about it all the way until they were negotiating with a new GM who had nothing to do at all with his bonuses not being paid. None of us obviously know what went on with Lou and Marner and why he didn't pay him the bonuses but my own personal guess is that Marner's camp really rubbed Lou the wrong way and he wanted to set an example.

Lou has never paid any player their schedule B bonuses until Auston Matthews. This goes all the way to his days in New Jersey. None of Lou’s draft picks received that Bonus. So I don’t think it had anything to do with Marner’s camp, it was just Lou’s way of doing business.

And from what I read, Marner’s camp didn’t even have a problem with it because they still signed the ELC. The issue began with, when the organization says this is going to be the standard and then one year later concede that standard to Matthews. And I’m sure Lou tried his best to uphold that standard because Matthews did not sign his ELC right away either. But at the end of the day Lou went back on his word to another high draft pick.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I’d be surprised if teams identified themselves based on their percentage of winning. “We’re a 4% to win team but hope to be a 7% chance team to win.” It’s nonsense.

How teams identify themselves? Nobody is talking about that. I don't know what you're on about. But teams do absolutely notice and strive to improve the quality of their team, and they do absolutely evaluate their chances of winning to make decisions like buying and selling at the deadline.

 

[Stephen]

I myself think he should have been gone long ago, but regardless of that or what anyone else thinks 2 things are clearly true:

1. The Leafs will most likely resign him to a very big contract

2. When he's confident, shooting the puck and playing like this he's and incredible player.

Get the guy to a sports Psychiatrist. He's too good to play like he does in the playoffs. It's nothing to do with size/ speed/toughness or whatever other physical trait. He's a guy who gets in his own head when things go poorly. If hes here the #1 priority for this team needs to be to get Marners head straightened out so he can be the player he can be when the games matter.

What’s infuriating to me about the Dubas regime is they didn’t look at Mitch, (and Auston) and recognize these guys are fairly timid competitors, ergo they need to be physically protected and supported by large and aggressive and high work rate supporting cast to create a safe work bubble in a hostile environment. The over the hill veterans, little skill guys that populated the Leafs 2020-2023 just never made sense.

 

[Stephen]

Lou has never paid any player their schedule B bonuses until Auston Matthews. This goes all the way to his days in New Jersey. None of Lou’s draft picks received that Bonus. So I don’t think it had anything to do with Marner’s camp, it was just Lou’s way of doing business.

And from what I read, Marner’s camp didn’t even have a problem with it because they still signed the ELC. The issue began with, when the organization says this is going to be the standard and then one year later concede that standard to Matthews. And I’m sure Lou tried his best to uphold that standard because Matthews did not sign his ELC right away either. But at the end of the day Lou went back on his word to another high draft pick.

Well, the tension in the organization has always been where Mitch is positioned relative to Matthews (equal) and Nylander (superior). The more the Leafs treated Matthews as the golden child the more they had to overpay Mitch later.