Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[GoonieFace]

NHL also stole an obvious assist from him near the end of the 99 point season, so really, he did hit 100.

Yeah, no he didn’t.

 

[ULF_55]

Can't believe we still have to endure this purposely obtuse debate. Yes, yes, yes.

2024-25 103.6 pace

2023-24 101 pace

2022-23 101 pace

2021-22 110.4 pace

2020-21 99.9 pace

And as we know, pace is based on games played.
Games not played have no pace.

And the missed assist that would have given him 100 points, had me wondering if we reviewed all games for all players could there be some milestones met and some milestones erroneously given?

1,000 points ... probably secured as 4 assists probably have not likely to have been given Prop.

List of NHL players with 1,000 points - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

1,000 points ... Spezza missed 5 assists in 1248 games? Probably not?

NHL All-Time Points Leaders

NHL players who hold the all-time record for the most points in NHL. All-time point leaders for NHL players.

www.quanthockey.com

Remember when Tavares played a full season with the Little m?
47 goals.

This year with marner, the "3rd. line center" Tavares is close to PPG.

This year marner and Tavares again look like gold.

 

[DarkKnight]

And as we know, pace is based on games played.
Games not played have no pace.

And the missed assist that would have given him 100 points, had me wondering if we reviewed all games for all players could there be some milestones met and some milestones erroneously given?

1,000 points ... probably secured as 4 assists probably have not likely to have been given Prop.

List of NHL players with 1,000 points - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

1,000 points ... Spezza missed 5 assists in 1248 games? Probably not?

NHL All-Time Points Leaders

NHL players who hold the all-time record for the most points in NHL. All-time point leaders for NHL players.

www.quanthockey.com

Remember when Tavares played a full season with the Little m?
47 goals.

This year with marner, the "3rd. line center" Tavares is close to PPG.

This year marner and Tavares again look like gold.

Tavares scored 12 more even strength goals that year than his previous high. It's a pretty astounding anomaly.

 

[arso40]

Marner yes, Nylander no.

(Nylander was close enough that I'd consider him a 100 point player but saying he paced that would be a lie.)

We have 1 100 point player it’s our number 1 Center

 

[arso40]

The annoying thing is Leafs management actually sat him for games down the stretch, it wasn't his choice, he was almost all but guaranteed to hit 100 one of those seasons.

If he wanted to play they wouldnt stop him mm and am have the keys to this team

We have 1 100 point player it’s our number 1 Center

I’m glad you find it funny acc but what I’m saying is facts your using fancy made up stats nobody gets in the books with expected points only actual points he has zero 100 point seasons hopefully he gets through this year we’re probably the only team that even has these debates about pace rather than results

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yeah, no he didn’t.

Well he was one of the last 3 players to touch the puck for at least 100 of his team's goals, but you can call it whatever you want. Either way, it shows how silly the distinction is.

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner has 9 points 5 on 5, 2 goals 7 assists, Curiously Connor McDavid also has 9, 5 on 5 points, 3 goals 6 assists
I guess they are in the same 5 on 5 boat. Pastranuk has 9 points both tkachuks have 9 points, Barkov has 9. Just a boatload of guys with 9

Plenty of big name players not doing much better really
Mackinnon 11 points 1 and 10
Draisaityl 11 points

NHL Player Statistics -Advanced Stats 2024-2025

Scoring Leaders, Expected Goals, Player Stats

moneypuck.com

5v5 points per 60:

Barkov is 6th
M.Tkatchuk is 25th
B.Tkatchuk is 57
C.Mcdavid is 62
Mackinnon is 89
Marner is 114th
Pastrnak is 126

Mcdavid was injured but hes picking up (are injury excuses only allowed for postseason Marner)? Pastrnak led his next teammate by 43 points last year, he lacks the high end linemates that the rest have. Note that Marner wasnt able to produce a single point 5v5, or even a shot on goal.. in the 5 games with Tavares and Matthews off his line.

Something to keep an eye on. Hopefully when Matthews comes back, Marner and him are kept apart.

 

[notdoneyet]

His point pace shouldn't be up for debate regardless. Playoff point pace vs players making similar money is more interesting and important.

I haven't worked it out but I think if you normalized everything both MM and WN are both around 9-10m players.

For example. If we had AM and nobody else of worth and we could get MM in free agency. I would offer him 10m and may even outbid to 10.5m, maybe even go the full 11m if desperate.

When we got MM signed to 10.9m I was expecting to see 120pts seasons and that never happened

Just to be sure at 11.5 for nylander you are expecting 125 points or he isn’t worth his contract
And as an aside
At 13.25 matthews should be around what 150 points a season or he isn’t worth his contract

We know your disdain for marner but you just can’t cherry pick one contract and not the others to justify this obsession

 

[arso40]

Just to be sure at 11.5 for nylander you are expecting 125 points or he isn’t worth his contract
And as an aside
At 13.25 matthews should be around what 150 points a season or he isn’t worth his contract

We know your disdain for marner but you just can’t cherry pick one contract and not the others to justify this obsession

125? Come on man he’s over paid as of now in a couple years when the caps over 10 mil higher he’ll be paid better he’s not gonna be expected to hit 125 that’s just crazy Marner was at 10.9 for 6 years and never hit a 100 how can we expect for 600 thousand more, with the percentage of the cap difference another 20 something points on top fml

 

[Racer88]

Nylander:

96 points after 76 games.
2 points in the last 6 games.

Nylander was on pace for 104 points at the 76 game mark.

Earned 2 points in last 6 games, to fall short of 100.
Injury? He didn't start the playoffs because of migraine issues, which started when? Did he play out the season fighting the issue, or did it occur after the last game? Maybe he should have sat out? All speculative.


Little m:

Injury ended his chased for 100+.
He ended the season on a 101 pace, but since he missed 13 games it is impossible to predict what he might have done during those 13 games. Maybe scores better than his season PPG, or maybe he scored less than his season PPG.


Both came up short.


But thrilled to hear that Berube is asking him to read the Volume 2 of the Bandy Papers.

The great debate of the 21st century…….at what number of games is “on pace for” allowed and how many points can we round up to

 

[DarkKnight]

Math is hard.

In the last six years-an incredibly large sample size- he averages 1.24 points per game.

Cope harder.

 

[thewave]

Just to be sure at 11.5 for nylander you are expecting 125 points or he isn’t worth his contract
And as an aside
At 13.25 matthews should be around what 150 points a season or he isn’t worth his contract

We know your disdain for marner but you just can’t cherry pick one contract and not the others to justify this obsession

For 10m+ you probably want 1.35 (110pts) or more.

12m+ for a 100 point 1.24 is insane. The people here promoting your own team overpaying are obviously family or friends or business associates in some capacity. Nobody else has an active contingent of people seeking a player to get paid as high as possible.

Mitch is certainly overrated and about to get overpaid. These Mitch fans will certainly not care if the contracts come and go and we do not win.

 

[ACC1224]

The idea of using William Nylander at centre on a consistent basis didn’t get much traction in camp.

How about Marner at centre?

“I talked to Mitch the other day about it, actually,” Berube said. “He said, ‘No problem, whatever you want.’

“He’s smart enough, for sure. I know he has played some defence here in the past. I think he could play all positions. It’s definitely an option if we need it. He’s the guy who can go in there and understand the positioning of what to do. I guess you have to worry about faceoffs a little bit, but he’s a guy that we can use there.”

And how about that moustache?



“Working hard on it and seeing how it goes,” Marner said with a chuckle. “Movember is pretty important (for raising awareness about men’s health issues). My wife was the one who actually said I should get it going, so I’m giving it all I got, but it’s not much.”



The same can’t be said of Marner once the puck is dropped.

At least we can dispel the 'he'd refuse to play center' myth.......progress.

 

[DarkKnight]

People realize the cap might go up 10 percent alone next year right? Like update your outdated numbers lol.

 

[thewave]

Math is hard.

In the last six years-an incredibly large sample size- he averages 1.24 points per game.

Cope harder.

That's the number. It's true and you guys are right. He paces 100pts routinely. I am going to put a little more time into this one, see below.

Here is my opinion.

The primary issues with Marner is the probable contract value, and understanding that signing a player like him to a NMC 12m+ contract is a team precedent setter. He is not a marquee playoff performer and for that money the team should take into consideration the impact his new contract will have on players like Knies (who will want a larger piece of the cap pie). There is no question that overpaying big name players will have a negative impact as far as team depth goes going forward.

Ultimately I would advise management do their due diligence before committing large cap to Mitch Marner and explore other scenarios. At the very least, consideration should be given to limiting the use of the NMC, leveraging the fact that much additional revenue is generated for the player locally through sponsorships etc. Marners brand does not have name recognition in the USA and he would forgoe year 8 contractually which would not be in his best interest considering his slower than average speed.

Regards

 

[DarkKnight]

That's the number. It's true and you guys are right. He paces 100pts routinely. I am going to put a little more time into this one, see below.

Here is my opinion.

The primary issues with Marner is the probable contract value, and understanding that signing a player like him to a NMC 12m+ contract is a team precedent setter. He is not a marquee playoff performer and for that money the team should take into consideration the impact his new contract will have on players like Knies (who will want a larger piece of the cap pie). There is no question that overpaying big name players will have a negative impact as far as team depth goes going forward.

Ultimately I would advise management do their due diligence before committing large cap to Mitch Marner and explore other scenarios. At the very least, consideration should be given to limiting the use of the NMC, leveraging the fact that much additional revenue is generated for the player locally through sponsorships etc. Marners brand does not have name recognition in the USA and he would forgoe year 8 contractually which would not be in his best interest considering his slower than average speed.

Regards

Matthews isn't a primary playoff performer either. Mitch doesn't operate in a vacuum.

I'll be happy with .5 to a 1 over Willie, with the salary cap potentially rising more than predicted, it's all about percentages. He's getting paid, we aren't letting him walk, just listen to the GM, he sure thinks he's an elite player. And he will get 13 plus if he hits the market, have zero doubt. There are no exploring possibilities, he isn't getting traded this season, that's laughable to me now, so you either sign him, or let him walk for nothing and vastly overpay other free agents. This is why I'm convinced he signs during this season. Let's see who's right.

 

[ACC1224]

Matthews isn't a primary playoff performer either. Mitch doesn't operate in a vacuum.

I'll be happy with .5 to a 1 over Willie, with the salary cap potentially rising more than predicted, it's all about percentages. He's getting paid, we aren't letting him walk, just listen to the GM, he sure thinks he's an elite player. And he will get 13 plus if he hits the market, have zero doubt. There are no exploring possibilities, he isn't getting traded this season, that's laughable to me now, so you either sign him, or let him walk for nothing and vastly overpay other free agents. This is why I'm convinced he signs during this season. Let's see who's right.

His re-signing is a virtual lock at this point.
There are going to be a few here with a decision to make.
1) get on board
2) whine and froth for another 8 years
3) find another team

 

[thewave]

Matthews isn't a primary playoff performer either. Mitch doesn't operate in a vacuum.

I'll be happy with .5 to a 1 over Willie, with the salary cap potentially rising more than predicted, it's all about percentages. He's getting paid, we aren't letting him walk, just listen to the GM, he sure thinks he's an elite player. And he will get 13 plus if he hits the market, have zero doubt. There are no exploring possibilities, he isn't getting traded this season, that's laughable to me now, so you either sign him, or let him walk for nothing and vastly overpay other free agents. This is why I'm convinced he signs during this season. Let's see who's right.

I get it.

Ultimately I want this team to win and see challenges with overpays. Nylander is an overpay and the NMC make it hard.

I would go for an overpay on Mitch if he drops NMC after 3 or 4 years. That should have been done from the start though and I doubt management could make it work at this point.

We will see. Hope it works out

 

[Dekes For Days]

For 10m+ you probably want 1.35 (110pts) or more. 12m+ for a 100 point 1.24 is insane.

Through the cap era, the average P/GP over the 3 seasons prior to signing for UFAs signing between 13% and 14% (currently 11.4m to 12.3m for an 88m cap) has been 1.05 P/GP.

 

[thewave]

His re-signing is a virtual lock at this point.
There are going to be a few here with a decision to make.
1) get on board
2) whine and froth for another 8 years
3) find another team

Getting on board is simply an advocational position supporting management. It's your right to take that position but if we go through another 10 years with no cup. You know how that goes.

Knies and other future depth are going to do exactly what the 3 amigos have done and not settle for any more or less than a comparable % and methedology at arriving at that number.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Growing a moustache is a big step in the right direction. Bonus points for a handlebar. I'm not sure who has the best facial hair on the team, were overdue for some good looks here.

 

[ULF_55]

At least we can dispel the 'he'd refuse to play center' myth.......progress.

I'd be surprised if he would refuse.
It isn't like asking him to play goalie.
No different than at work when the boss asks if you can take over X's job as he's retiring and they don't have anyone else. Never done that belore? Well, could be fun.
I think he has all the tools, and taking face-offs is a practice thing.

Just surprised it took this long.
Red Kelly did it at an older age, and he moved from defense to center.

Imagine down the middle:
Matthews
Little m
Tavares

 

[thewave]

@thewave

So I did some research, it was uncommon for 8th overalls to get the schedule B bonuses. Rantanen did not get. Neither did Nylander

But it was very common for 4th overalls to get the schedule B bonuses.

Nicklas Backstrom - received
Thomas Hickey - did not receivve
Alex Pietrangelo - received
Evander Kane - received
Ryan Johansen - received
Adam Larsson - did not receive
Griffin Reinhart - received
Seth Jones - received
Sam Bennett - received

Also we know that Marner did not consider Rantanen a comparable. So it really doesn't matter if Rantanen got one. He compared himself to Matthews

We all know they used JT to start. Everyone did it and it's fine. The issue will always come back to what if Knies uses it and then the tenders. The good depth team becomes harder and harder to put together. That means tougher to make a cup contender.

I just want to win. That's why 13m Marner and 7m 113 year old JT scares me

NMCs, Salary Cap are two criminal aspects of pro sports

 

[therealkoho]

It stands to reason Matthews and Nylander will be the only comparables since his agent said Matthews and Tavares were the only comparables used in 2019.

Don't know if you listen to Kyper and Bourne, but on Tuesdays Steve Valiquette segmen. He broke down some pretty incredible stats in regard to player effectiveness in the playoffs. It's the last 3 or so minutes of the segment. It's pretty illuminating stuff. Starts at 116:30

 

[Cleetus]

I am happy with his game so far this season, he is really stepping up, great player!