Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[therealkoho]

Yeah, no he didn’t.

Marner if I remember correctly, stole the puck inside the Montreal line, and passed it to the goal scorer. His pass was clipped by the Montreal players stick, but still reached its intended target. So there was no interruption in Toronto possession therefore the assist on the goal is valid.
He got shorted again this season after winning the puck on the boards bouncing it to Knies who got it to Tavares I think. It directly resulted in a goal.
Stolarz was also shorted on an assist this year, I'm sure you remember as it was only a week or two ago and, because it was a discussion on here.

 

[Aashir]

Can't believe we still have to endure this purposely obtuse debate. Yes, yes, yes.

2024-25 103.6 pace

2023-24 101 pace

2022-23 101 pace

2021-22 110.4 pace

2020-21 99.9 pace

The only years I’d argue he maybe could maybe couldn’t see 2020-21 and 2023-2024. Those two years he was still a bit off and he had to play them out

2023-2024: he needed 15 in 13. This one’s a bit of a nitpick but it’s a 13 game sample size and he was very inconsistent that year in terms of production. If it was like 8 in 6 I’d probably think of him as a 100 point guy.

2020-2021: he needed 33 in 27. This one is actually IMO a fair year. He was pacing for under 100, and needed to accelerate even just a tiny bit. There was a lot of games to play and so the pace would have to cover for a bit. This was the shortened season though so it’s a bit unfair as he only missed 1 game

I think those two years you can at least argue he isn’t, but collectively, yea I can’t see him not being a 100 point player, especially 2021-2022 dude needed 3 in like 10.

 

[therealkoho]

Getting on board is simply an advocational position supporting management. It's your right to take that position but if we go through another 10 years with no cup. You know how that goes.

Knies and other future depth are going to do exactly what the 3 amigos have done and not settle for any more or less than a comparable % and methedology at arriving at that number.

Knies is currently tracking for 24 goals and 16 assist +/- 40 points. What do 40 point players get, especially ones who've only done it once?

Factor everything in and he probably lands a 4x4 deal I can't see it being much more than that unless someone offers sheets him, but even at 6m having him in the lineup is better then having a 1st and 3rd in your draft assets bank

 

[therealkoho]

Probably because he does so well as a winger. The old don’t mess with something that works, however having said that I too would like to see Mitch play center for awhile.

The great set up guys from history were all centre's, and the heavy goal scorers were always on the wing. There are some unicorns though.

Mitch is almost a centre in how he interacts with whomever is centering the line he's on. He's always the 3rd man high, always the first back, he just doesn't take that many draws, he even defers to Will on 2nd man in situations

 

[Dough72]

Marner at center could probably work. But then watch small defencemen try to guard Jon Tavares. I actually feel bad for them. It's really hard to guard larger players 1 on 1 when you can't put your stick on them anymore. I think that's why they never tried Marner at center. Plus he has huge defensive value patrolling around open ice.

 

[therealkoho]

A better bonus structure would make a tonne of sense.

Not straight forward when it comes to % of HRR, but perhaps part of the calculation could be contributions to HRR per team. If Team A is contributing $$$$ and Team B is contributing -$$$, some fairness to the fans paying the freight might be fair.

I've been saying something like this for years, and maybe even a little more radical when it comes to contract termination. If a player signs a contract based on 40g 100 points and the player doesn't achieve it two years running then the team should have the right to renegotiate or terminate with a very small buyout penalty to a future cap.

As far as team centric caps, it would truly become a have and have not league. I don't know if that's a good idea so much. Winnipeg apparently is in a net loss situation and can't really afford the players they currently have. The funny thing is I don't see Gary 'the Bettman' running to them with buckets full of cash to bail them out a la Phoenix. Although he did go there to tell the fanbase to straighten up and fly right if you want to keep the Jets. People just cannot spend money they don't have

Much to the horror of at least 27 NHL fanbases the Leafs would be able to out spend almost every team in the league. I think the only situation that makes sense are incentive laden contracts with guaranteed money kept to a minimum. As well as guarenteed money contracts with minimal bonus incentives. Those contracts are now players choice, either the bonus route or the guaranteed route, you can't have it both ways.

 

[arso40]

At least we can dispel the 'he'd refuse to play center' myth.......progress.

Mitch is a team guy he played right d for Christ sakes he’s not saying no to anything team wise

 

[therealkoho]

Another way to look at that is his 9 5on5 points puts him in a 27-way tie for 59th in the league, despite the fact that he has played more games than 70% of the players with as many or more. Among those 85 players he's 77th in per60.

He's also third on the Leafs (4th by per60).

The good news is that his 2 goals isn't the worst - there are 8 players with just 1 goal, only 3 of which are D.

Let's not forget that Marner is among the players playing the most minutes who are not Dmen. The minutes played effects that equation.

6.9M for 5 years was a decent contract for Nylander.

Friedman reported that his sources and people he spoke to around the league indicated that Arizona was going to offer Matthews a 7 year/16M (or whatever the max was) contract. So Matthews really had all the leverage.

Marner on the otherhand was waiting to get offersheeted all summer so I don't get why they had to sign him to that. Let him miss the season.

Marner also said he wouldn't sign one because he wanted/wants to stay in Toronto.

 

[arso40]

Let's not forget that Marner is among the players playing the most minutes who are not Dmen. The minutes played effects that equation.


Marner also said he wouldn't sign one because he wanted/wants to stay in Toronto.

His agent with his knowledge used the threat of an offer sheet

 

[therealkoho]

His agent with his knowledge used the threat of an offer sheet

Ferris: Marner received two offer sheets - TSN.ca

According to Mitch Marner's agent, Darren Ferris, the Maple Leafs winger was presented with two different offer sheets this summer before reaching a six-year, $65.36 million contract with Toronto. Marner confirmed on Monday that he did receive offer sheets, but never seriously considered signing...

www.tsn.ca

So I'm sticking to my story

 

[francis246]

We all know they used JT to start. Everyone did it and it's fine. The issue will always come back to what if Knies uses it and then the tenders. The good depth team becomes harder and harder to put together. That means tougher to make a cup contender.

I just want to win. That's why 13m Marner and 7m 113 year old JT scares me

NMCs, Salary Cap are two criminal aspects of pro sports

Well I don’t think you have to worry cause Marner will not get 13 million as a leaf. I think the leafs are going to be fine. Look at the resignings of late. They have been team friendly deals and guys now want to stay. I was fully expecting a guy like McCabe to walk. The culture has changed and I think we are seeing guys who want to stay here. I agree with you, I don’t think we can or should just give him an open book. I think leafs should wait until the playoffs conclude. If it doesn’t work, let him walk and try and change things up.

 

[francis246]

Knies is currently tracking for 24 goals and 16 assist +/- 40 points. What do 40 point players get, especially ones who've only done it once?

Factor everything in and he probably lands a 4x4 deal I can't see it being much more than that unless someone offers sheets him, but even at 6m having him in the lineup is better then having a 1st and 3rd in your draft assets bank

Knies is going to ask for a bridge contract. I can see Knies doing a 3 year bridge.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Let's not forget that Marner is among the players playing the most minutes who are not Dmen. The minutes played effects that equation.

Which is why I also mentioned 'per60'.

By the way, it's 'affects' not 'effects' in this situation. Auto-incorrect strikes again?

 

[DarkKnight]

The only years I’d argue he maybe could maybe couldn’t see 2020-21 and 2023-2024. Those two years he was still a bit off and he had to play them out

2023-2024: he needed 15 in 13. This one’s a bit of a nitpick but it’s a 13 game sample size and he was very inconsistent that year in terms of production. If it was like 8 in 6 I’d probably think of him as a 100 point guy.

2020-2021: he needed 33 in 27. This one is actually IMO a fair year. He was pacing for under 100, and needed to accelerate even just a tiny bit. There was a lot of games to play and so the pace would have to cover for a bit. This was the shortened season though so it’s a bit unfair as he only missed 1 game

I think those two years you can at least argue he isn’t, but collectively, yea I can’t see him not being a 100 point player, especially 2021-2022 dude needed 3 in like 10.

Fair comment.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I'd even argue that Marner is a 125 point player even though he's never officially got 100 lol

Unfortunately I do not care if he gets 250 points in the regular season. Him and the core need to go deep because everyone else at their pay level are cup Champions pretty well

 

[Racer88]

I'd even argue that Marner is a 125 point player even though he's never officially got 100 lol

Unfortunately I do not care if he gets 250 points in the regular season. Him and the core need to go deep because everyone else at their pay level are cup Champions pretty well

I will see your 125 and give you 145

 

[Leaf Fans]

At least we can dispel the 'he'd refuse to play center' myth.......progress.

Nah, we can just disbelieve Marner and Berube with the the vapid "What else is he gonna say" question.

 

[Racer88]

Well he was one of the last 3 players to touch the puck for at least 100 of his team's goals, but you can call it whatever you want. Either way, it shows how silly the distinction is.

It’s not a silly distinction, it’s in the interest of accuracy. If we are willing to fudge a point are two…….whats next, 5 points, 10 points?
How long before chaos runs rampant

I am happy with his game so far this season, he is really stepping up, great player!

I honestly think Marner is doing a good job since Matthews has been gone. I hope it keeps up if Matthews returns from the fatherland some day.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It’s not a silly distinction, it’s in the interest of accuracy. If we are willing to fudge a point are two…….whats next, 5 points, 10 points? How long before chaos runs rampant

You mean people might actually have to face the fact that the NHL isn't perfect and points aren't a perfect representation of offensive impact? The horror!
It is a silly distinction. We're talking about the difference of 1 point, that he actually got according to the NHL's rules and precedent, in less games.
Calling somebody who has produced at a 100+ point level for hundreds of games a 100 point player... What chaos we've unleashed!
In the interest of accuracy, you would want to more accurately describe the level he performs at, not reference some arbitrary peak raw total he hit at some point.

 

[Confucius]

I honestly think Marner is doing a good job since Matthews has been gone. I hope it keeps up if Matthews returns from the fatherland some day.

Being one of the 3 stars in 4 of the last 6 games, yeah I’d have to agree with ya.

 

[Racer88]

Being one of the 3 stars in 4 of the last 6 games, yeah I’d have to agree with ya.

Yup. I’m not afraid to give him props when he deserves it and he deserves it big time right now

 

[Menzinger]

The compromise seems to be to call him a 100 point pace player rather than a 100 point player. It's splitting hairs, but technically accurate And most will be unhappy with it lol which is better than one side getting what they want over the other

Imo Tre can only extend one of Marner or JT before the playoffs. If the team is 7 and out again in the first round, someone from the core is going to go form an optics POV. It's likely JT given his age

 

[ToneDog]

Yup. I’m not afraid to give him props when he deserves it and he deserves it big time right now

You should check his 5 vs 5 numbers. Bourne has brought it up every time Kyper pumps Mitch's tires.

 

[thewave]

You should check his 5 vs 5 numbers. Bourne has brought it up every time Kyper pumps Mitch's tires.

Kyper is nothing more than a players union rep ex NHLr who pumps players contract values every single time. It's hilarious.

 

[ToneDog]

Kyper is nothing more than a players union rep ex NHLr who pumps players contract values every single time. It's hilarious.

I like him, but lost a lot of respect for him this week after he said somebody will pay Marner between $13m and $14m/Draisaitl money.