Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[notDatsyuk]

Who has the 5 on 5 point ?

According to the NHL, 8 players have a 5on5 point in the 5 games without Matty.

Mcmann, Nylander, and Timmins have goals. Benoit, Holmberg, Knies, Reeves, and Tavares have assists.

 

[Antropovsky]

According to the NHL, 8 players have a 5on5 point in the 5 games without Matty.

Mcmann, Nylander, and Timmins have goals. Benoit, Holmberg, Knies, Reeves, and Tavares have assists.

Marners career primary linemates since 2016. Has there been another player in history this blessed?:

Jr 2016 Tkatchuk, Dvorak
2017 Bozak, JVR
2018 Kadri, Marleau; JVR, Bozak
2019 Tavares, Hyman
2020 Matthews, Hyman; Tavares, Hyman
2021 Matthews, Hyman; Matthews, Thornton
2022 Matthews, Bunting
2023 Matthews, Bunting; Tavares, Bunting; Matthews, Jarnkrok
2024 Matthews, Knies; Tavares, Bertuzzi

 

[diceman934]

Marners career primary linemates since 2016. Has there been another player in history this blessed?:

Jr 2016 Tkatchuk, Dvorak
2017 Bozak, JVR
2018 Kadri, Marleau; JVR, Bozak
2019 Tavares, Hyman
2020 Matthews, Hyman; Tavares, Hyman
2021 Matthews, Hyman; Matthews, Thornton
2022 Matthews, Bunting
2023 Matthews, Bunting; Tavares, Bunting; Matthews, Jarnkrok
2024 Matthews, Knies; Tavares, Bertuzzi

Marner has had more points them all every season for the most part. How blessed has his linemates been!!

 

[ULF_55]

Yikes. How can you think that when this team can barely score 5v5 without him?

Scoring 5v5 goals the hardest thing to do in the NHL and Matthews has been the best at it in the entire NHL since his rookie season.

...while also being one of the leagues top defensive players.

Im shocked.

I'm not saying he's a goal producer, but he is one of their core players who facilitates their scorers.

We know he has a hard time when it gets heavier going.

The teams still needs some youts to break into the line-up, but until then it is always going to be the Tavares, Nylander, Little m, Matthews when he's healthy, and more recently Knies.

I'm not one of his biggest boosters, but I can appreciate his efforts. Not enamoured with his entourage, and yes he isn't likeable, but he's an asset.

Matthews leaves me wanting, but going back to Armstrong perhaps those players are fewer and further between. Hockey has moved closer to the NBA entertainment than pure sport, but other than death and taxes, everything changes.

If they could move him for other assets I'd shed no tears.

 

[ULF_55]

Lmao, Leafs nation is like no other

We went from wanting to lynch Marner and Matthews is the 2nd best in the world, to this

It is unlikely there was a unanimous opinion that he was ever 2nd. best in the world, even amongst Leafs' fans.

Top goal scorer doesn't make a player the best player.

But alas, this is not a Matthews thread, so I won't belabour the point.

 

[ULF_55]

Matthews isn't a driver of the team?

Clarify?

Probably too harsh, but I find he avoids opportunities to step up. Maybe physically he is safeguarding his hands?

 

[REALTALK81]

Name-calling and ad hominem attacks aren't the best way to start a conversation.

Yes, facts, even without context, are facts.

Yes, he has more playoff points. In about 15% more ES ice time and 30% more PP ice time than Nylander he has a few more ES points and actually fewer PP points.

Yes, he plays on the PK, but there are stats that show he's not great at it. Yes, he got Selke votes - a few years ago and not very many.

The Leafs have an identical winning % when Nylander is out as when Marner is out.

I don't hate him, but I'm certainly not impressed by specious arguments. He's a very good player, but let's not pretend he's a lot more than what he is.

1. His higher percentage of playing time may be correlated to how valuable he is to his coach. Why would a coach play the worse player more?

2. Regardless of how you feel about him not being great as a PK player, the team doesn't seem to have better options otherwise the better option would be playing. Dismissing his Selke votes is interesting especially since it is harder for a winger to get them.

3. As for the records being even..
Without Matthews 38-19-2 (.661 %)

Without Marner 20-17-5 (.536 %)

Without Nylander 25-10-2 (.703 %)

Without Tavares 11-2-2 (.800%)

Without Rielly 41-17-5 (.690 %)

It looks like the Leafs miss him most.

 

[notDatsyuk]

1. His higher percentage of playing time may be correlated to how valuable he is to his coach. Why would a coach play the worse player more?

2. Regardless of how you feel about him not being great as a PK player, the team doesn't seem to have better options otherwise the better option would be playing. Dismissing his Selke votes is interesting especially since it is harder for a winger to get them.

3. As for the records being even..
Without Matthews 38-19-2 (.661 %)

Without Marner 20-17-5 (.536 %)

Without Nylander 25-10-2 (.703 %)

Without Tavares 11-2-2 (.800%)

Without Rielly 41-17-5 (.690 %)

It looks like the Leafs miss him most.

1. A higher % of playing time may correlate with him playing with Matthews, but it doesn't negate the fact that he produces at a lower rate.

2. The fact that he gets more PK time may well mean that he is the best on the team (although, as I said, there are stats which show that isn't necessarily true), but that doesn't mean he must be good. And I did not dismiss the Selke voting but just added context.

3. I don't know where you got those numbers. Nylander missed more games than that, and the team record without him is virtually identical to the team record without Marner.

But as I said (which you seem to have ignored) "he's a very good player, but let's not pretend he's a lot more than what he is".

 

[DarkKnight]

Marner didn't get "a few" Selke votes, he finished 3rd. Come on let's be fair.

Also, anyone with eyes knows he's an excellent PKer. Berube is literally double shifting him some PKs this year, he's our best forward ainec. We don't have to downplay his attributes. He's a stud PKer and one of the best defensive forwards in the game. Stick to wilting in the playoffs and being too fancy at times, that's where reality lives.

 

[Confucius]

Marner didn't get "a few" Selke votes, he finished 3rd. Come on let's be fair.

Also, anyone with eyes knows he's an excellent PKer. Berube is literally double shifting him some PKs this year, he's our best forward ainec. We don't have to downplay his attributes. He's a stud PKer and one of the best defensive forwards in the game. Stick to wilting in the playoffs and being too fancy at times, that's where reality lives.

Better yet don’t talk about the playoffs 6 months away and enjoy the hockey season.

 

[DarkKnight]

Better yet don’t talk about the playoffs 6 months away and enjoy the hockey season.

Exactly. It's a given, so all we have is the regular season. If you don't care, then don't watch, and better yet, don't waste time on nothingness on a social media site. It's so irrelevant I must post everyday about it. It's absurd lol.

I like hockey, sue me.

 

[arso40]

Marner didn't get "a few" Selke votes, he finished 3rd. Come on let's be fair.

Also, anyone with eyes knows he's an excellent PKer. Berube is literally double shifting him some PKs this year, he's our best forward ainec. We don't have to downplay his attributes. He's a stud PKer and one of the best defensive forwards in the game. Stick to wilting in the playoffs and being too fancy at times, that's where reality lives.

He’s been better at the pk last year he wasn’t even on the top unit it was kampf and dewer but he’s been much better this year but he’s right he’s a very good player it’s people like us that made him feel he deserved Matthews money it’s okay to be a very good player he’s a top player in the league just not even a top 5 winger and ainec is a huge lie

 

[DarkKnight]

He’s been better at the pk last year he wasn’t even on the top unit it was kampf and dewer but he’s been much better this year but he’s right he’s a very good player it’s people like us that made him feel he deserved Matthews money it’s okay to be a very good player he’s a top player in the league just not even a top 5 winger and ainec is a huge lie

He was on the top PK all last year? Some times Keefe tried to limit his minutes.

 

[arso40]

He was on the top PK all last year? Some times Keefe tried to limit his minites.

At the end of the year it was the two players I named dewar was a dead line acquisition

 

[DarkKnight]

At the end of the year it was the two players I named dewar was a dead line acquisition

Yes because Keefe wanted to limit his minutes, and Dewar only averaged 10 seconds more a game. It wasn't on merit. Kampf too draws too. I love Dewar too, hopefully he makes Holmberg obsolete and I'd prefer we don't ride Marner down the stretch.

 

[thewave]

I wouldn’t feel great about anything over Nylander tbh. But if he took 11.85 on an 8 year deal I’d be okay with that. If the number starts with a 12, I’ll be a little upset and hope it’s a short term deal

I would reluctantly do 11.85m if it was 5 or 6 years and no NMC. Can then trade and retain 1.5m or so. Return would be ok

 

[francis246]

I would reluctantly do 11.85m if it was 5 or 6 years and no NMC. Can then trade and retain 1.5m or so. Return would be ok

Yeah I think also if they can push for some limited trade protection like Rantanen had in his deal that would be nice. Or if they can get it like Pasta’s current deal. I think Pasta has a modified NMC in the last two or three years of his deal. The more I think about it, the more short or mid term is better for the team when it comes to Marner

 

[francis246]

According to the NHL, 8 players have a 5on5 point in the 5 games without Matty.

Mcmann, Nylander, and Timmins have goals. Benoit, Holmberg, Knies, Reeves, and Tavares have assists.

That was updated after the game. When I made that post the leafs had not scored yet. Only Timmins, Benoit and Reaves had points. Antroprovsky made his post before the Washington game and at the time of his post McMann, Nylander, Holmberg, Tavares and Knies did not have 5 v 5 points. So let’s be clear and provide accurate context.

 

[francis246]

At the end of the year it was the two players I named dewar was a dead line acquisition

He was coming back from the high ankle, I think that was more of a minutes restriction thing as opposed to him not being on the top unit.

 

[thusk]

Its very evident you dont care. This is the SEASON. I care about his last 8 PLAYOFFS where hes been mostly dreadful. You Marner fans acknowledge he hasnt been good in the playoffs but try to point the same finger at Tavares, Matthews and Nylander. Nylander has made 55% less than Marner the last 5 years and scored more, Tavares had significantly less Ozone starts compared to Marner last year and still produced the same, Matthews has been anchoresd down by Marners poor 5v5 play, much like the stats show he has been in the season (see chart below that marner fans conveniently dont want to discuss). The stats also show that Marner gets significantly further from the net and his slot shots dry up in the playoffs vs season. While Mathews stay the same or improves. However, as you can see in the graph below... if Marners play gets further from the net and the slot than Matthews 5v5 will further decrease at the hands of Marner. Of course this isnt even taking into account all the misplays Marners done that directly led to critical gwgs against and also his heartless plays like pulling the chute all the time and refusing to enter scrums to support his teammates. All these add up to a very big problem, especially when hes playing 20 mins a night and paid 13% of the cap... and as a result we have no better options.

View attachment 930581


Lol ... I focused on the last two full seasons, in which Marner and Matthews played approx 50% with and without eachother. You couldnt ask for a better sample.

If Matthews was carrying Marner at 5v5 like you try to say, tell me why he didn't producing more than Marner/60 in last 6 year considerating marner played much more time in any defensive situation than matthews.

Again,i don't know where MATTHEWS stats have to do with Marner. Even without Matthews marner was producing at same rate. For me the only thing that showing is both are able to play at high level even if they dont play together...

and get easier matchup just help Matthews to boost his stats especially against bottom team but not necessairly the case against good team. Should be extremely interesting to see the same kind of stats against contender team, i'm pretty sure you would be extremely surprise of stats you would find.

 

[Tak7]

Probably too harsh, but I find he avoids opportunities to step up. Maybe physically he is safeguarding his hands?

When I initially read your comment, game 4 against Tampa and last season's game 2 vs Boston immediately came to mind. Games where he drove his team to victory.

However, after reading your response I do tend to agree - for someone of his undoubted ability, he really doesn't do it anywhere near as frequently enough compared to the other actual superstars in the league.

 

[ITM]

Bro the only difference is he’s being more physical that’s literally it he still makes the cute plays he’s still getting his points there’s only one difference credit the coach and him for that difference but there’s nothing else different about him on the ice

Being more physical and engaging more towards the dirty areas (like he used to) is the difference people have been waiting for from Marner.

And the speculation has been - amongst a number of us - that a different (i.e. firmer) coach might make help him return to form.

Regarding Marner's inconsistencies, that's the crux of previous criticism and present praise.

I'm missing the point (and Antropov's for liking it) you're trying to make.

 

[ponder]

I’d definitely argue that point but it’s a fair point atleast would be easier to see with them spread across 3 lines

I would like to see us spread them across 3 lines more often, regardless. I think all of Matthews, Marner and Nylander are big time line drivers, and when we have injuries to one of them and the other 2 are on separate lines, they tend to still carry the play well regardless.

When we're fully healthy (Matthews and Patches back), I'd love to see us try something like:

McMann - Matthews - Robertson
Patches - Tavares - Marner
Knies - Domi - Nylander

When the Pens had a team that was super top-heavy on forward talent, with Sid/Geno/Phil, they frequently put all 3 on separate lines, and it worked out great. We haven't given that configuration enough burn IMO, especially now that we have enough top 9 talent to give them all at least decent linemates.

 

[notdoneyet]

Marner could score the cup winning goal in overtime
And sticky antropovsky and the wave would criticize him for not scoring in the third period and hurt the team by going to overtime

Marner gets blamed for the team not scoring 5v5, gets blamed for poor PK if we give up a PPG and takes ALL the heat for our PP not working.

We have a guy who is 6-3 225 lbs who plays way below his physicality and is the highest paid player in the league who
Absolutely disappears as much or more than marner when the games get tough.

A guy like McKinnon fights for the puck in the corner gets control crashes the front of the net to get the greasy goals you need to win.

Matthews skates ariund in the defensive zone waiting for a perfect pass from marner to get that scoring chance. When the opposing defender takes away that time and space matthews doesn’t have the fortitude to win those battles.

 

[Divine]

I think people need to seperate the Marner debate. They've convoluted multiple different arguments so people don't understand what issue they're criticizing.

Is Marner a good player? Yes.
Is he worth 12M+? In my opinion - No.

Why?

He isn't a strong scoring threat. How many players make 12M+ and aren't a threat to score? When you're not a scoring threat, your linemates are forced to score for you... yet you're the one making 12M+?

If he gets an NHL shot, sure. We can't tie our cap on a player who needs other players to score for him because those players will generally be worse considering the passer is one of the highest players in the league.

Marner will score 20-30 goals in the regular season on some muffins and weak teams and occasionally deke the goalie. When there's less space out there, with better teams or in the playoffs, he simply does not have an NHL shot that can beat a goalie. His contract is what makes him expendable, not his ability.

Which NHL forwards have gotten 12M+ without scoring 40? None. Marner has gotten to 30 goals twice in his 8 year career - despite having much more space than most other players by virtue of playing with a 70 goal threat.

Look at the current state of the Leafs with Matthews out. Who are the scoring threats?

Nylander
Tavares (probably won't last)
Knies? (Maybe)

That's why the team struggles to score. Not enough threats, giving 12M+ to a non-scoring threat is a mistake in my opinion. It's what handicapped Joe Thornton. Come the playoffs, teams can dare him to shoot by covering his linemates.