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Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

francis246 said:
The issue with this reasoning is you completely ignore the fact that you actually have to identify and select the right players. What are the odds the leafs correctly pick 3 impact players in UFA and all 3 are worth their contracts? I’d say probably 0%. Chances are you probably hit on one but the other two would be terrible contracts.

So it comes down to is management willing to let Marner go and trust that they will confidently hit on 2-3 impact players with JT and Marner’s money. That is a tall ask.
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The overpays have been the whole time. They had good players. ROR Hyman Kadri Marchment Jared McCann lol

The level of idiocy from this organization is beyond epic

Smif said:
Your bff Antro did. He wanted to replace Marner with Domi because his points per 60 stats said it would work. Low and behold he used a period of 2 weeks of proof. He uses shadows and mirrors to prove everything. Anyone could prove anything with the amount of time he puts into micro-analyzing stats. It's just that it's hollow stats because it's all from a biased perspective.
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I am for trying Domi with Matthews arent you?
 
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thewave said:
The overpays have been the whole time. They had good players. ROR Hyman Kadri Marchment Jared McCann lol

The level of idiocy from this organization is beyond epic



I am for trying Domi with Matthews arent you?
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For every single player you named, the core 4 forwards contracts had little to do with why they were moved.

ROR - left because of the coach and/or he didn’t want to be in the spotlight of Toronto. Pick your choice. I think both are true.

McCann - Dubas decided saving Kerfoot and Holl was more important that this guy who could play both LW and C.

Marchment - traded cause of foot speed

Kadri - traded because he lost the organizations trust and they wanted to parlay him into a defenseman.(which may have been the right call, but the rushed the deal)

Hyman - they were hesitant to give him term as he had 2 knee surgeries and it was not effective in the playoffs.


And you’re basically proving my point. This team sucks at player evaluation. Yet you want them to let one of the 3 players they got right, walk for free?! And have them try and sign 3-4 new ones out of UFA. How does it make sense lol.
 
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francis246 said:
For every single player you named, the core 4 forwards contracts had little to do with why they were moved.

ROR - left because of the coach and/or he didn’t want to be in the spotlight of Toronto. Pick your choice. I think both are true.

McCann - Dubas decided saving Kerfoot and Holl was more important that this guy who could play both LW and C.

Marchment - traded cause of foot speed

Kadri - traded because he lost the organizations trust and they wanted to parlay him into a defenseman.(which may have been the right call, but the rushed the deal)

Hyman - they were hesitant to give him term as he had 2 knee surgeries and it was not effective in the playoffs.


And you’re basically proving my point. This team sucks at player evaluation. Yet you want them to let one of the 3 players they got right, walk for free?! And have them try and sign 3-4 new ones out of UFA. How does it make sense lol.
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You can't bold face straight up tell me that cap was not a consideration. It's always a consideration. That weasel was trying to pinch pennies in what he thought was giving him bang for the buck. Outside Kadri, he was the one driven out

Don't take the players word for it. They talk shit for PR purposes. Those were mostly management excuses.

Dubas thought he knew it all, he knew nothing
 
Antropovsky said:
Matthews produced 1.61 more goals per 60 minutes with Domi, which is approximately a 101.90% increase compared to when playing with Marner.

Matthews produced 2.18 more points per 60 minutes with Domi, which is approximately a 79.27% increase compared to when playing with Marner.
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thewave said:
The overpays have been the whole time. They had good players. ROR Hyman Kadri Marchment Jared McCann lol

The level of idiocy from this organization is beyond epic



I am for trying Domi with Matthews arent you?
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100%. So far not so good though. We are really struggling to score.

Ideally, we're putting one of the big boys on their own line. We've tried every other combination and we are still seriously struggling offensively.
 
Dekes For Days said:
Yeah, Marner's playoff stats have been really inflated by that Vezina calibre goaltending his team has averaged facing throughout his career. :eyeroll:

Guess we can dismiss everybody's points from series where they faced worse goaltending, right?
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No, only the ones where we want to diminish their accomplishments
 
BraveCanadian said:
Some of the worst use of stats I have ever seen and that is saying something around here
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Like I said, anyone can prove anything when you use a sample size of 4-6 games in an 82 game season. Every stat is tainted because one pariah in here has a biased perspective 100% of the time. They don't look for truth, they look for anything that supports their opinion.
 
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ToneDog said:
I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that his game has never translated in the playoffs. I mean just watch how he shies away from contact, the dirty areas and gives away the puck like it is a hand grenade. I believe there are stats that show that his shots are much further away from the net as well.

It would not be as bad if they had playoff success (ECF would be nice). This is why I am for moving off this core. The Leafs are the Jays and Raps before they traded for Alomar and Kawhi. Shanny is afraid to move off this core while Gillick and Masai realized they were never winning running it back and made a bold move.
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Shy's away from contact ... should a player look to get hit more to be considered a playoff performer :) ? Last time I checked McDavid would not be considered a physical player.

If a player gives the puck away, he is not a playoff performer? Marner has a career 0.8 /g give away in the playoffs. Logically that would mean anyone with equal to or more gva than Mitch are not playoff performers.

Players with more GVA in the playoffs than Mitch per game played.

Sergei Zubov
Mike Modano
Drew Doughty
Scott Niedermayer
Duncan Keith
Kris Letang
Joe Thornton
Niklas Hjalmarsson
Ryan Getzlaf
Brent Burns
Zdeno Chara
John Carlson
Victor Hedman
Evgeni Malkin
Chris Pronger
Nikita Kucherov
Patrik Elias
Ryan McDonagh
Brian Rafalski
Brad Marchand
Sidney Crosby

(If you have the puck a lot you are going to give the puck away a lot.)
 
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Stephen said:
I don’t see the Leafs being proactive in making a move here. The most likely is they re-sign him and lock in the current dynamic good, bad, ugly and keep rolling indefinitely.
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You are most likely right! It almost looks like they are scared to ask him to waive his no trade. I think the most likely scenario is that he is re-signed to an obnoxious contract.

I mean, if Mitch really wants to stay in Toronto, then how about take a hometown discount to help the team build a roster that can actually compete for a Stanley Cup. Instead of trying to hold the MLSE at gunpoint for every penny, they have.
 
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Stephen said:
I guess my big takeaway is MLSE's operating costs on the player side are artificially low on the Maple Leafs side thanks to the NHL salary cap. Based on these Forbes numbers:


www.forbes.com

Toronto Raptors on the Forbes NBA Team Valuations List

Toronto Raptors #11 on the Forbes NBA Team Valuations List
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

In 2022-23 numbers, the Leafs have $108 million in player expense costs and $308 million in revenue, which is 35% of HRR. So if you included the Marlies and Leafs combined, if they spent to 50% of HRR they would have the resources to spend $154 million.

Compare that to the Raptors, who paid out $170 million in player expense costs and $341 million in revenue, they are hitting 50% BRR.

So a couple of million extra for Marner is simply not a big factor at the corporate level, however it jams us up playing in the small pond that is the NHL.
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Folks should go look at the bluejays salaries before they start thinking mlse cares about the high end NHL.contracts.

Wealthy teams love the hard cap as much as the budget ones. Keeps profits as high as possible
 
Hellcat said:
Shy's away from contact ... should a player look to get hit more to be considered a playoff performer :) ? Last time I checked McDavid would not be considered a physical player.

If a player gives the puck away, he is not a playoff performer? Marner has a career 0.8 /g give away in the playoffs. Logically that would mean anyone with equal to or more gva than Mitch are not playoff performers.

Players with more GVA in the playoffs than Mitch per game played.

Sergei Zubov
Mike Modano
Drew Doughty
Scott Niedermayer
Duncan Keith
Kris Letang
Joe Thornton
Niklas Hjalmarsson
Ryan Getzlaf
Brent Burns
Zdeno Chara
John Carlson
Victor Hedman
Evgeni Malkin
Chris Pronger
Nikita Kucherov
Patrik Elias
Ryan McDonagh
Brian Rafalski
Brad Marchand
Sidney Crosby

(If you have the puck a lot you are going to give the puck away a lot.)
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I'll give you the more you have the puck the more give aways.

His regular season points drop by 20% in the playoffs. He also drops to a .35 PPG player in games 4-7. He also drops to a 16 GPG player in the playoffs. You cannot seriously tell me his game does not decline in the playoffs.

Look, I would gladly sign him for $100+m but when he puts his wallet ahead of the team and demands Draisaitl money, I have no time for him or the will to run back the 3 greedy amigos who are 1 and 8 in the playoffs.
 
Menzinger said:
Folks should go look at the bluejays salaries before they start thinking mlse cares about the high end NHL.contracts.

Wealthy teams love the hard cap as much as the budget ones. Keeps profits as high as possible
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May as well give Mitch the max if winning is not number 1.

2 ENG in December, 1 goal on Skinner in January. Willie scored 3 goals vs Calgary alone last week.
 
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34 said:
Sam Bennet if he makes it the free agency after this season. Let Marner walk, and have that extra cap space to sign players like Bennett.
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I doubt he is leaving Florida to play with this soft core. I would keep my options open. It's not like Mitch is getting a better offer elsewhere and he wants to be a Leaf. If signs elsewhere, thanks for nothing.
 
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Hellcat said:
Shy's away from contact ... should a player look to get hit more to be considered a playoff performer :) ? Last time I checked McDavid would not be considered a physical player.

If a player gives the puck away, he is not a playoff performer? Marner has a career 0.8 /g give away in the playoffs. Logically that would mean anyone with equal to or more gva than Mitch are not playoff performers.

Players with more GVA in the playoffs than Mitch per game played.

Sergei Zubov
Mike Modano
Drew Doughty
Scott Niedermayer
Duncan Keith
Kris Letang
Joe Thornton
Niklas Hjalmarsson
Ryan Getzlaf
Brent Burns
Zdeno Chara
John Carlson
Victor Hedman
Evgeni Malkin
Chris Pronger
Nikita Kucherov
Patrik Elias
Ryan McDonagh
Brian Rafalski
Brad Marchand
Sidney Crosby

(If you have the puck a lot you are going to give the puck away a lot.)
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Have you watched McDavid in the playoffs? 2 years ago he set a tone in an elimination game first shift he hit everything that moved. His been suspended twice and doesn’t shy away from contact.
 
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ToneDog said:
I doubt he is leaving Florida to play with this soft core. I would keep my options open. It's not like Mitch is getting a better offer elsewhere and he wants to be a Leaf. If signs elsewhere, thanks for nothing.
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Yes, Bennet most likely stays in Florida. He certainly would be a quality add to the Toronto roster though.

I believe the offers Mitch will get in free agency are gonna be very underwhelming to what he expects. NO GM in their right mind is paying that guy $14M AAV. NO f***ING WAY.
 
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34 said:
Sam Bennet if he makes it the free agency after this season. Let Marner walk, and have that extra cap space to sign players like Bennett.
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Sam Bennett is ass. You want to give a guy who’s never scored 50 points in his career 7-8 million? You’d be the first person in the GDT stiring up shit.

I rather give that money to Boeser or Ehlers.
 
francis246 said:
The issue with this reasoning is you completely ignore the fact that you actually have to identify and select the right players. What are the odds the leafs correctly pick 3 impact players in UFA and all 3 are worth their contracts? I’d say probably 0%. Chances are you probably hit on one but the other two would be terrible contracts.

So it comes down to is management willing to let Marner go and trust that they will confidently hit on 2-3 impact players with JT and Marner’s money. That is a tall ask.
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1. Beside Rantanen, I don’t think any potential UFAs can provide MM’s numbers
2. Impact players have to look at Team success rather than just individual points. I am not even talking about different positions. Let’s say Leafs use the MM’s caphit on another Winger and C. Their total points productions might not be as good as MM plus Holmeberg or Dewar. Since only one of them will be able to play in MM’s PP spot

To me, you can’t refuse to change bc you are afraid you can’t find proper replacements. Like what’s the worse that can happen with the Leafs, they are just a playoffs team.

That’s why if they choke again this playoffs, changes has to be made bc it’s obvious that current core is not working.
It is not against MM or JT. If Tre can trade Reilly and Willie and AM then resign MM and JT, that’s great. Changes must happen if they continue to choke in playoffs.

Maybe Choke is not the right word as if they continue to just be First round folders, that means they didn’t choke, they are just not that good.
 
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