Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[IPS]

His defence in the playoffs is also been quite concerning. Lots of turnovers, giveaways and mental derps.

Yeah I'm very aware it's not some Hossa or Zetterberg type of defense were getting from him in the postseason.

 

[Hellcat]

So Marner is a hybrid center/winger. Still small and his game has never translated to the playoffs. How much would you pay him knowing you already have almost $25m invested in a C and RW and the 3 are 1 and 8 in the playoffs in 8 years.

You made an absolute statement that his game has never translated in the playoffs, this opinion is based on what? What metric would you use to measure Playoff success?

 

[Stephen]

Pretty much. Now brace yourselves for the incoming 110pts pace, in a vacuum, if you adjust x y z stat axis on a slanted chart you can see Marner is elite type arguments.

I feel like the 115 points to tie Huberdeau and Gaudreau (RIP) is almost predestined at this point.

 

[Hellcat]

His defence in the playoffs is also been quite concerning. Lots of turnovers, giveaways and mental derps.

That is an opinion.

 

[ToneDog]

You made an absolute statement that his game has never translated in the playoffs, this opinion is based on what? What metric would you use to measure Playoff success?

I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that his game has never translated in the playoffs. I mean just watch how he shies away from contact, the dirty areas and gives away the puck like it is a hand grenade. I believe there are stats that show that his shots are much further away from the net as well.

It would not be as bad if they had playoff success (ECF would be nice). This is why I am for moving off this core. The Leafs are the Jays and Raps before they traded for Alomar and Kawhi. Shanny is afraid to move off this core while Gillick and Masai realized they were never winning running it back and made a bold move.

 

[notDatsyuk]

IF your saying the only reason play maker get pts is b/c of a goal scorer

Then

The only reason goal scorers get goals/pts is due to being set up for tap ins and being merchants by play makers who create all the plays while lazy goal scorers coast for free points.

Only exception being unassisted goal scorers but those are very rare for a player and small % of total goals a player gets

Again look at the best players in the league since 2020

Mcdavid
Mackinnon
Kucherov
Draisaitl
Makar
Matthews
Panarin
Pasta
Q. Hughes
Kaprizov


Majority of those guys are better play makers than goal scorers. Offense generation and conversion matters.

Matthews scores goals but is useless as a playmaker and can't create for his wingers despite being a Center. Not worth 13.25M with 45 pts in 40 this year and wasnt worth it last year either with 69G and 107Pts when he was 37 pts back of Kucherov who showed he is much much better than Matthews at creating offense for his team.

Kucherovs style of production and play carries to the playoffs with him being one of the best playoff stars ever while Matthews productiin style in the playoffs has him known as a big time playoff choker

Interesting. Omitting the defencemen, they all have more than 1/3 of their ES points from goals. Even more interesting, generally the better the linemates the lower the percentage of goals - makes sense, as the linenates can produce goals too.

Percentage of goals compared to points:
Mcdavid 34.9
Draisaitl 36.7
Kucherov 37.0
Mackinnon 37.5
Panarin 38.1
Pastrnak 48.1
Kaprizov 48.2
Nylander 50.0
Matthews 56.8

Maybe it's not so much Matthews a bad playmaker as his linemates not good scorers.

 

[JL17]

Thats the issue with the core guys

Matthews at his best is a 1-D goal scorer and can barely get 40 assists making him useless come playoffs and much worse than those comparables who regularly dominatw the playoffs.

Marner is a 1-D playmaker who cant get 80 assists and cant score 40G consistently.

Nylander similar to Mattgews just scores goals but is pacing for ~30A only which is horrific.

One-dimension offense type players are going to be easier to shut down in the playoffs as we have seen with 16, and 34 and 88 to a smaller extent

Nylander last year could have had a pile of assist but JT couldn’t keep up or bury any passes he got. Nylander at this stage is playing with limited talent. He creates his own goals but the guy has elite play making abilities just no one to play with to finish. If he played more with a McMann or Auston they’d have a much bigger threat.

 

[Stephen]

Nylander last year could have had a pile of assist but JT couldn’t keep up or bury any passes he got. Nylander at this stage is playing with limited talent. He creates his own goals but the guy has elite play making abilities just no one to play with to finish. If he played more with a McMann or Auston they’d have a much bigger threat.

Given the instability of his linemate pairings, Nylander has definitely turned into a do it himself kind of scorer. He has turned into a bit of a Pavel Bure.

 

[JL17]

What about Marner as a comparable to Huberdeau? Low goal scoring wingers. JH set a record for assists for a winger. Last year we know was a disaster. Hes decent defensively(had a few shorties this year). Plays a tougher game than Marner.

 

[Stephen]

What about Marner as a comparable to Huberdeau? Low goal scoring wingers. JH set a record for assists for a winger. Last year we know was a disaster. Hes decent defensively(had a few shorties this year). Plays a tougher game than Marner.

Poor playoff reputation relative to regular season success.

 

[Mr_Fun]

Yes they do. Somebody being praised for hard work does not mean that they didn't work hard previously. You don't become one of the best players in the world by not working hard.

Why are you looking at Marner with his shirt off in the first place? Anybody that's ever played sports or trained knows that there's more to physical fitness than how bulky you are. And you'd think hockey fans would understand that there's more to hockey than that, considering that the best hockey player to ever exist was a stick. Getting hulked out isn't going to help the game of somebody like Marner. He has a whole team of experts guiding him. He doesn't need tips from you.

Yeah, this body type thing is a little silly. There’s always been undersized hockey players who have done well. Hell, there’s even tubby players that were good for that matter. Make no doubt about it though that if Mitch were to put on 20lbs, the goal posts would move.

 

[JL17]

Yeah, this body type thing is a little silly. There’s always been undersized hockey players who have done well. Hell, there’s even tubby players that were good for that matter. Make no doubt about it though that if Mitch were to put on 20lbs, the goal posts would move.

I think if Marner put on 20 he’d be slower.

He just needs the mindset of Conor Garland

 

[34]

Poor playoff reputation relative to regular season success.

I think Toronto absolutely has to move off of this guy. He is not worth more than Matthews, McKinnon, Draisaitl and a long list of players to add to that. Let him go to free agency and watch the underwhelming offers he gets.

 

[thewave]

What about Marner as a comparable to Huberdeau? Low goal scoring wingers. JH set a record for assists for a winger. Last year we know was a disaster. Hes decent defensively(had a few shorties this year). Plays a tougher game than Marner.

2018 to 2022 Hubradeau yes. Pretty similar. He got 10.5m and became trash which I don't think will happen with Mitch. In a realistic world Marner making 10.5m would be max ceiling for him and Nylander a bit less.

I think Toronto absolutely has to move off of this guy. He is not worth more than Matthews, McKinnon, Draisaitl and a long list of players to add to that. Let him go to free agency and watch the underwhelming offers he gets.

Then they need to make him waive or else they are dumb.

 

[Stephen]

I think Toronto absolutely has to move off of this guy. He is not worth more than Matthews, McKinnon, Draisaitl and a long list of players to add to that. Let him go to free agency and watch the underwhelming offers he gets.

I don’t see the Leafs being proactive in making a move here. The most likely is they re-sign him and lock in the current dynamic good, bad, ugly and keep rolling indefinitely.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don’t see the Leafs being proactive in making a move here. The most likely is they re-sign him and lock in the current dynamic good, bad, ugly and keep rolling indefinitely.

Unfortunately this seems like a safe bet.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Lmfaoo let’s just order one for the leafs off Amazon. Where do you think this stud dman is coming from?

To acquire a dman of that calibre it’s through trade or draft and develop. Maybe you get Chychrun to sign here and he’s like a tier 2 dman IMO

I doubt we get one this year but I don't see a deep run without one.

 

[thewave]

I don’t see the Leafs being proactive in making a move here. The most likely is they re-sign him and lock in the current dynamic good, bad, ugly and keep rolling indefinitely.

That's 99.9% probable. The youth(majority) love Marner for sure. He should have been moved on from before his nmc.

No doubt Rogers is going to say, we don't want a Doncic type rebellion on our hands, we're not trying to move our franchise to Vegas like them!

 

[Smif]

Matthews. Because he was going to be a sure fire Rocket guy. Just like Ovi or Crosby he had that right.

Marner stats wise has absolutely nothing to put himself into Matthews range. It was all bs. Dubas deceived by advanced stats and creative magic. It was outlandish for him to compare himself, as a winger of all things. DUBAS did that.

Yes in it because Dubas, but Matthews has some credibility to his claims and contract. Marner is a passenger winger that has to rely on shooter to put the puck in the net. You can't pay playmakers like goal scorers.

Nylander as a 45 50 goal scorer somewhat makes his 11.5 justified. Somewhat.

If I'm not mistaken, the year Marner signed was just after his first 90+ season. It was also the season that he was voted by his own teammates as the team MVP. Here's the point totals of Marner & Matthews that season:

Marner 82-26-68 Total 94 +22
Matthews 68-37-36 Total 74 -9

He also elevated Tavares to career highs in goals by 20% and a career high points.

He was 22 at the time and we thought we had the next Kucherov. Imo, very reasonable to think he was in the same tier as Matthews at that time.

 

[thewave]

If I'm not mistaken, the year Marner signed was just after his first 90+ season. It was also the season that he was voted by his own teammates as the team MVP. Here's the point totals of Marner & Matthews that season:

Marner 82-26-68 Total 94 +22
Matthews 68-37-36 Total 74 -9

He also elevated Tavares to career highs in goals by 20% and a career high points.

He was 22 at the time and we thought we had the next Kucherov. Imo, very reasonable to think he was in the same tier as Matthews at that time.

Matthews was at 90pt pace and had almost 40 goals while being a young C. Doesn't matter who they vote for. 37 goal scorer pacing for over 40 while playing C trumps that.

 

[hamzarocks]

Interesting. Omitting the defencemen, they all have more than 1/3 of their ES points from goals. Even more interesting, generally the better the linemates the lower the percentage of goals - makes sense, as the linenates can produce goals too.

Percentage of goals compared to points:
Mcdavid 34.9
Draisaitl 36.7
Kucherov 37.0
Mackinnon 37.5
Panarin 38.1
Pastrnak 48.1
Kaprizov 48.2
Nylander 50.0
Matthews 56.8

Maybe it's not so much Matthews a bad playmaker as his linemates not good scorers.

Matthews hasnt been a good play maker at any level (not in Zurich or WJC/World Championships/World cup of hockey) or at most pts of his NHL career.

He played 2017 and 2018 away from Marner and with Nylander and he had 29 assists in 82 games and I think 29 assists in 62 games.

He doesnt really display confidence in being able to make touch cross ice passes, find seams and be able to spot odd man in a rush look.

He isnt a dominant puck carrier who can create open ice by backing up the defense and use that space to thread passes to the players on his wings.

He has had almost 9 years and has played with Marner, Hyman, Nylander, Domi, Kase, Ritchie, Bunting, Knies and McMann for long stretches so there is definately some good goal scoring ability for players there.

He really does look to shoot first, second and third when hes going strong. Its what forces the Marner and Matthews duo.

1 players always/almost always looks for the pass and the other for the shot.

Both get in each others way and it hurts the overall team.

Berube should NOT play 16 and 34 together come playoffs. If we acquire Laughton then run

Knies - Matthews - Domi
Pac-man - JT - Nylander
McMcann - Laughton - Marner

As 3 1st lines and force teams to shutdown all 4 of the Core guys having to use 3 seperate pairings/matchups to shut down all 3.

Ideally we can acquire a better winger for L2 upgrade and instead of Laughton we get Brock Nelson level Center

 

[Dekes For Days]

2018 to 2022 Hubradeau yes. Pretty similar. He got 10.5m and became trash which I don't think will happen with Mitch.In a realistic world Marner making 10.5m would be max ceiling for him and Nylander a bit less.

Through the 4 years prior to signing...

Marner: 2.90 P/60 at 5v5 (0.70 P/GP), 7.52 P/60 on the PP, top PKer, good defensively, good prior years, signing ages 28-36.

Huberdeau: 2.62 P/60 at 5v5 (0.59 P/GP), 7.08 P/60 on the PP, doesn't PK, bad defensively, bad prior years, signing ages 30-38.

Huberdeau's contract this summer would be 12.15m. Pretty easy to see why Marner will get more.

 

[thewave]

Through the 4 years prior to signing...

Marner: 2.90 P/60 at 5v5 (0.70 P/GP), 7.52 P/60 on the PP, top PKer, good defensively, good prior years, signing ages 28-36.

Huberdeau: 2.62 P/60 at 5v5 (0.59 P/GP), 7.08 P/60 on the PP, doesn't PK, bad defensively, bad prior years, signing ages 30-38.

Huberdeau's contract this summer would be 12.15m. Pretty easy to see why Marner will get more.

You're wrong. He would be in the KHL this summer or bought out.

 

[Smif]

Matthews was at 90pt pace and had almost 40 goals while being a young C. Doesn't matter who they vote for. 37 goal scorer pacing for over 40 while playing C trumps that.

You really can't see how Marner would be seen as comparable at that time? Just to be clear, I'm saying comparable, not equal. He was still paid less afterall and the salaries were close, but, not equal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He would be in the KHL this summer or bought out.

If he signed under this cap in 2022.