Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[thewave]

If he signed under this cap in 2022.

I am just saying he is junk right now as Marner is ineffective, inefficient and irresponsible overall as a player. Firstly he is ineffective in the playoffs when it counts. Inefficient in that he runs the PP and it sucks. He ALSO gives up the puck all the time and is a perimeter player making him irresponsible. Plus he does not take responsibility.

This is not a 13m player. He is not

 

[Stephen]

I doubt we get one this year but I don't see a deep run without one.

I would guess MLSE is more comfortable paying Marner big cash than worrying about the cap or have the same negativity as a lot of fans. Reason being is in absolute dollars he's paid a paltry amount compared to the overall revenue the Toronto Maple Leafs bring in, what the franchise is worth. Especially compared to other sports properties under the MLSE, Rogers ownership.

Compare that to what the Toronto Raptors salary structure looks like, what their revenue and franchise valuations are in the NBA, what a $14 million employee on the Raps side looks like, what $14 million gets you in MLB, it's very affordable.

It's only when you match him up to NHL comparables that you have some major competitive disadvantages. But I think the Leafs see themselves as an upper echelon team and it's star driven, and why mess with a good thing.

Again, I'm not making a case to keep Marner or justify an overpay but I don't see the team moving off this guy.

 

[ToneDog]

I would guess MLSE is more comfortable paying Marner big cash than worrying about the cap or have the same negativity as a lot of fans. Reason being is in absolute dollars he's paid a paltry amount compared to the overall revenue the Toronto Maple Leafs bring in, what the franchise is worth. Especially compared to other sports properties under the MLSE, Rogers ownership.

Compare that to what the Toronto Raptors salary structure looks like, what their revenue and franchise valuations are in the NBA, what a $14 million employee on the Raps side looks like, what $14 million gets you in MLB, it's very affordable.

It's only when you match him up to NHL comparables that you have some major competitive disadvantages. But I think the Leafs see themselves as an upper echelon team and it's star driven, and why mess with a good thing.

Again, I'm not making a case to keep Marner or justify an overpay but I don't see the team moving off this guy.

Overpaying this guy and running the same core back. Two wrongs do not make a right. Tells me they are here to sell jerseys. Sorry Keith, you are a bigger clown than Shanahan.

 

[thewave]

Overpaying this guy and running the same core back. Two wrongs do not make a right. Tells me they are here to sell jerseys. Sorry Keith, you are a bigger clown than Shanahan.

View attachment 975159

I think they are worried about 1m little Marner fans crying all night.

 

[Antropovsky]

If I'm not mistaken, the year Marner signed was just after his first 90+ season. It was also the season that he was voted by his own teammates as the team MVP. Here's the point totals of Marner & Matthews that season:

Marner 82-26-68 Total 94 +22
Matthews 68-37-36 Total 74 -9

He also elevated Tavares to career highs in goals by 20% and a career high points.

He was 22 at the time and we thought we had the next Kucherov. Imo, very reasonable to think he was in the same tier as Matthews at that time.

Tulsky study said that quality of linemates have the biggest impact on a players success.

Marner played with Tavares and Hyman... Matthews played with Marleau, Johnsson and Kapanen. Do you see how and why that would mean a great deal to thr difference in points for Matthews?


He elevated Tavares? How do you know Marner elevated him and not the other way? Marner was a 60 point player the year before Tavares, while Tavares was an 88 point player and a two time hart nominee.

In Tavares 2nd year wirh Marner... Tavares only had a 1.69 p/60 with Marner. Marner had a 1.9 p/60 with Tavares.

Those are abysmal 5v5 numbers for two 11 million dollar players on the same line

While Tavares had a 1.85 p/60 with Nylander.

Meanwhile Matthews in his first 3 years was first in the league in g/60 by a large margin...while playing with the likes of Marleau, Johnsson, Brown and Kapanen:

 

[Smif]

I would guess MLSE is more comfortable paying Marner big cash than worrying about the cap or have the same negativity as a lot of fans. Reason being is in absolute dollars he's paid a paltry amount compared to the overall revenue the Toronto Maple Leafs bring in, what the franchise is worth. Especially compared to other sports properties under the MLSE, Rogers ownership.

Compare that to what the Toronto Raptors salary structure looks like, what their revenue and franchise valuations are in the NBA, what a $14 million employee on the Raps side looks like, what $14 million gets you in MLB, it's very affordable.

It's only when you match him up to NHL comparables that you have some major competitive disadvantages. But I think the Leafs see themselves as an upper echelon team and it's star driven, and why mess with a good thing.

Again, I'm not making a case to keep Marner or justify an overpay but I don't see the team moving off this guy.

I would not at all be surprised if Tre is being told that we're re-signing Marner, it's up to him to navigate the process and negotiation. Everyone above Tre doesn't care about the teams performance, just the bottomline.

 

[thewave]

Tulsky study said that quality of linemates have the biggest impact on a players success.

Marner played with Tavares and Hyman... Matthews played with Marleau, Johnsson and Kapanen. Do you see how and why that would mean a great deal to thr difference in points for Matthews?


He elevated Tavares? How do you know Marner elevated him and not the other way? Marner was a 60 point player the year before Tavares, while Tavares was an 88 point player and a two time hart nominee.

In Tavares 2nd year wirh Marner... Tavares only had a 1.69 p/60 with Marner. Marner had a 1.9 p/60 with Tavares.

Those are abysmal 5v5 numbers for two 11 million dollar players on the same line

While Tavares had a 1.85 p/60 with Nylander.

Meanwhile Matthews in his first 3 years was first in the league in g/60 by a large margin...while playing with the likes of Marleau, Johnsson, Brown and Kapanen:

Always bring the goods. Solid info and absolute truth bombs supported by evidence. The rebuttal will be some shift nonsense excuse or no response at all.

 

[Stephen]

Overpaying this guy and running the same core back. Two wrongs do not make a right. Tells me they are here to sell jerseys. Sorry Keith, you are a bigger clown than Shanahan.

View attachment 975159

When you look at the Leafs cap sheet compared to the Florida Panthers, things look out of whack and there's frustration with that. But when you compare them to other Rogers and MLSE properties, it makes a lot more sense why they think and act like this:

Toronto Raptors just added a $36 million player in Brandon Ingram at the NBA trade deadline.

These are the salaries of Toronto Raptors players

Hoopshype salaries of Toronto Raptors players

hoopshype.com

 

[ToneDog]

When you look at the Leafs cap sheet compared to the Florida Panthers, things look out of whack and there's frustration with that. But when you compare them to other Rogers and MLSE properties, it makes a lot more sense why they think and act like this:

Toronto Raptors just added a $36 million player in Brandon Ingram at the NBA trade deadline.

These are the salaries of Toronto Raptors players

Hoopshype salaries of Toronto Raptors players

hoopshype.com

There is no hard cap in the NBA. If the same were true for the Leafs, give him the CN Tower and bring in players that do not melt in spring.

 

[Gabriel426]

Deep down I don't think most fans blame Marner, or any other player, for getting all they can. The blame is on Dubas for giving them what they hadn't earned.

If Matty made $10 and Mitch and Willy each made $7 on their previous contracts everyone would have been happy, and we'd have been in much better shape overall.

If Matty was at $13, Willy at $11 and Mitch at $10 now I think most fans would consider it reasonable.

The blame is on the team, core 5, for not winning anything in the playoffs.

If they won a Cup or two, heck even an appearance in the ECF or Cup Finals, pay them and bring them back bc they are actually close.

We can blame those losses on supporting cast, defence, goaltending, coaching…..but the fact that AM, MM and JT- all making over 10.5mil had not dominated any series whether collectively or individually for the past 5 seasons is just pathetic. Even Panarin dominated a series or two after he signed his current contract and he didn’t have two more 10.5mil players to play with.

When you look at the Leafs cap sheet compared to the Florida Panthers, things look out of whack and there's frustration with that. But when you compare them to other Rogers and MLSE properties, it makes a lot more sense why they think and act like this:

Toronto Raptors just added a $36 million player in Brandon Ingram at the NBA trade deadline.

These are the salaries of Toronto Raptors players

Hoopshype salaries of Toronto Raptors players

hoopshype.com

As long as Ingram can be resign, I don’t see the problem adding him to the Raptors, as they just completely lack in anything, and their records shows that.

 

[Smif]

Tulsky study said that quality of linemates have the biggest impact on a players success.

Marner played with Tavares and Hyman... Matthews played with Marleau, Johnsson and Kapanen. Do you see how and why that would mean a great deal to thr difference in points for Matthews?


He elevated Tavares? How do you know Marner elevated him and not the other way? Marner was a 60 point player the year before Tavares, while Tavares was an 88 point player and a two time hart nominee.

In Tavares 2nd year wirh Marner... Tavares only had a 1.69 p/60 with Marner. Marner had a 1.9 p/60 with Tavares.

Those are abysmal 5v5 numbers for two 11 million dollar players on the same line

While Tavares had a 1.85 p/60 with Nylander.

Meanwhile Matthews in his first 3 years was first in the league in g/60 by a large margin...while playing with the likes of Marleau, Johnsson, Brown and Kapanen:

The year following is when Marner got hurt in early November. While hurt the team was playing terribly and then Babcock was fired late November and replaced by Keefe. When Marner returned in December he was immediately paired with Matthews, Marner and JT have barely played together since other than the odd time when Matthews is injured. JT has never been close to 47 goals since the one and only year him and Marner played together for the full season. He immediately returned to his career average.

 

[Stephen]

The blame is on the team, core 5, for not winning anything in the playoffs.

If they won a Cup or two, heck even an appearance in the ECF or Cup Finals, pay them and bring them back bc they are actually close.

We can blame those losses on supporting cast, defence, goaltending, coaching…..but the fact that AM, MM and JT- all making over 10.5mil had not dominated any series whether collectively or individually for the past 5 seasons is just pathetic. Even Panarin dominated a series or two after he signed his current contract and he didn’t have two more 10.5mil players to play with.


As long as Ingram can be resign, I don’t see the problem adding him to the Raptors, as they just completely lack in anything, and their records shows that.

I guess my big takeaway is MLSE's operating costs on the player side are artificially low on the Maple Leafs side thanks to the NHL salary cap. Based on these Forbes numbers:

https://www.forbes.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/

Toronto Raptors on the Forbes NBA Team Valuations List

Toronto Raptors #11 on the Forbes NBA Team Valuations List

www.forbes.com

In 2022-23 numbers, the Leafs have $108 million in player expense costs and $308 million in revenue, which is 35% of HRR. So if you included the Marlies and Leafs combined, if they spent to 50% of HRR they would have the resources to spend $154 million.

Compare that to the Raptors, who paid out $170 million in player expense costs and $341 million in revenue, they are hitting 50% BRR.

So a couple of million extra for Marner is simply not a big factor at the corporate level, however it jams us up playing in the small pond that is the NHL.

 

[Gabriel426]

I would guess MLSE is more comfortable paying Marner big cash than worrying about the cap or have the same negativity as a lot of fans. Reason being is in absolute dollars he's paid a paltry amount compared to the overall revenue the Toronto Maple Leafs bring in, what the franchise is worth. Especially compared to other sports properties under the MLSE, Rogers ownership.

Compare that to what the Toronto Raptors salary structure looks like, what their revenue and franchise valuations are in the NBA, what a $14 million employee on the Raps side looks like, what $14 million gets you in MLB, it's very affordable.

It's only when you match him up to NHL comparables that you have some major competitive disadvantages. But I think the Leafs see themselves as an upper echelon team and it's star driven, and why mess with a good thing.

Again, I'm not making a case to keep Marner or justify an overpay but I don't see the team moving off this guy.

Following your logic, they would probably be gunning after McDavid and tempting him with the Max deal.

MLSE-Leafs is a unicorn that even if they ice a team full of Kampf, they can still sell out every game. Having said that, there is no way they don’t want more playoffs games and more buzz in the media. It is their brand that’s drives the value of the franchise. Winning a Championships will drive up the value of the brand.

 

[Stephen]

Following your logic, they would probably be gunning after McDavid and tempting him with the Max deal.

MLSE-Leafs is a unicorn that even if they ice a team full of Kampf, they can still sell out every game. Having said that, there is no way they don’t want more playoffs games and more buzz in the media. It is their brand that’s drives the value of the franchise. Winning a Championships will drive up the value of the brand.

I expanded on my earlier point. Based on Forbes numbers it looks like the Leafs are only spending 35% of HRR into player salaries for the whole organization. So their ceiling is capped but in 2023 they would have spent to $154 million if they were mandated to spend 50% of HRR.

But yeah, I'd love to see them go after McDavid, no question.

 

[Smif]

Tulsky study said that quality of linemates have the biggest impact on a players success.

Marner played with Tavares and Hyman... Matthews played with Marleau, Johnsson and Kapanen. Do you see how and why that would mean a great deal to thr difference in points for Matthews?


He elevated Tavares? How do you know Marner elevated him and not the other way? Marner was a 60 point player the year before Tavares, while Tavares was an 88 point player and a two time hart nominee.

In Tavares 2nd year wirh Marner... Tavares only had a 1.69 p/60 with Marner. Marner had a 1.9 p/60 with Tavares.

Those are abysmal 5v5 numbers for two 11 million dollar players on the same line

While Tavares had a 1.85 p/60 with Nylander.

Meanwhile Matthews in his first 3 years was first in the league in g/60 by a large margin...while playing with the likes of Marleau, Johnsson, Brown and Kapanen:

For the record, I think JT is a great fit for Marner as well. I would love to see them together again. JT is a great net front presence which allows Marner to be more perimeter and set-up man whereas Matthews is also a bit more perimeter / slot man.

McMann - JT - Marner I think would be ideal.

 

[thewave]

The year following is when Marner got hurt in early November. While hurt the team was playing terribly and then Babcock was fired late November and replaced by Keefe. When Marner returned in December he was immediately paired with Matthews, Marner and JT have barely played together since other than the odd time when Matthews is injured. JT has never been close to 47 goals since the one and only year him and Marner played together for the full season. He immediately returned to his career average.

Nobody is disputing that Marner can't take a 40 goal scorer and make them a 47 goal scorer. Or a 55-60 goal scorer and make them a 69 goal scorer.

The point is, are those 10 extra goals on the line worth 6 million more than say a Necas?

If we have 2 3m a year crappy depth players, add 3m and suddenly you have 2 6m players or 2 more Necas level players and 3 Necas level players are way better than Marner!

See the forest for the trees people. Overpays matter

 

[Gabriel426]

I guess my big takeaway is MLSE's operating costs on the player side are artificially low on the Maple Leafs side thanks to the NHL salary cap. Based on these Forbes numbers:

https://www.forbes.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/

Toronto Raptors on the Forbes NBA Team Valuations List

Toronto Raptors #11 on the Forbes NBA Team Valuations List

www.forbes.com

In 2022-23 numbers, the Leafs have $108 million in player expense costs and $308 million in revenue, which is 35% of HRR. So if you included the Marlies and Leafs combined, if they spent to 50% of HRR they would have the resources to spend $154 million.

Compare that to the Raptors, who paid out $170 million in player expense costs and $341 million in revenue, they are hitting 50% BRR.

So a couple of million extra for Marner is simply not a big factor at the corporate level, however it jams us up playing in the small pond that is the NHL.

I agree to some extent but I don’t think the higher ups at MLSE would micromanage the Leafs to the extent of MM’s contract since NHL is cap on salary. To them it will be like the cap is 89mil, and here is 89mil, go spend and build a team that wins.
If the NHL is like MLB, then I can see it being more the case. Like I can see Jays MGT saying to the higher ups, hey we have a shot at Othani, he will bring in…..but we need an extra 70mil budget per year to sign him, and he is worth it….

 

[Smif]

Nobody is disputing that Marner can't take a 40 goal scorer and make them a 47 goal scorer. Or a 55-60 goal scorer and make them a 69 goal scorer.

The point is, are those 10 extra goals on the line worth 6 million more than say a Necas?

If we have 2 3m a year crappy depth players, add 3m and suddenly you have 2 6m players or 2 more Necas level players and 3 Necas level players are way better than Marner!

See the forest for the trees people. Overpays matter

Sounds super easy to accomplish. Do we get to pick all the best contracts out there or do other GMs have a say as well?

 

[thewave]

Sounds super easy to accomplish. Do we get to pick all the best contracts out there or do other GMs have a say as well?

We lost a bunch already. Won't be able to sign JT. Hyman, Knies or maybe we want to keep Stolarz and Woll. Oh nope sorry bud you gotta go.

 

[leafs in five]

Always bring the goods. Solid info and absolute truth bombs supported by evidence. The rebuttal will be some shift nonsense excuse or no response at all.

Truth bombs supported by evidence such as Domi is an elite playmaker

 

[francis246]

Always bring the goods. Solid info and absolute truth bombs supported by evidence. The rebuttal will be some shift nonsense excuse or no response at all.

Meh not really. If the Tavares elevates Marner argument is true, why has Tavares never hit 47 goals again? While Marner has consistently hit 90 points?

That’s as much evidence as you need. The gf stats and ect is irrelevant.

Truth bombs supported by evidence such as Domi is an elite playmaker

Well that’s what happens when you take a small sample size and generalize it. Normally doesn’t extrapolate as well over a longer period of time.

 

[thewave]

Truth bombs supported by evidence such as Domi is an elite playmaker

You just pulled a shifty shift. I never liked Domi.

Meh not really. If the Tavares elevates Marner argument is true, why has Tavares never hit 47 goals again? While Marner has consistently hit 90 points?

That’s as much evidence as you need. The gf stats and ect is irrelevant.



Well that’s what happens when you take a small sample size and generalize it. Normally doesn’t extrapolate as well over a longer period of time.

Everyone has a peak year around that age

 

[francis246]

Nobody is disputing that Marner can't take a 40 goal scorer and make them a 47 goal scorer. Or a 55-60 goal scorer and make them a 69 goal scorer.

The point is, are those 10 extra goals on the line worth 6 million more than say a Necas?

If we have 2 3m a year crappy depth players, add 3m and suddenly you have 2 6m players or 2 more Necas level players and 3 Necas level players are way better than Marner!

See the forest for the trees people. Overpays matter

The issue with this reasoning is you completely ignore the fact that you actually have to identify and select the right players. What are the odds the leafs correctly pick 3 impact players in UFA and all 3 are worth their contracts? I’d say probably 0%. Chances are you probably hit on one but the other two would be terrible contracts.

So it comes down to is management willing to let Marner go and trust that they will confidently hit on 2-3 impact players with JT and Marner’s money. That is a tall ask.

 

[Smif]

You just pulled a shifty shift. I never liked Domi.



Everyone has a peak year around that age

Your bff Antro did. He wanted to replace Marner with Domi because his points per 60 stats said it would work. Low and behold he used a period of 2 weeks of proof. He uses shadows and mirrors to prove everything. Anyone could prove anything with the amount of time he puts into micro-analyzing stats. It's just that it's hollow stats because it's all from a biased perspective.

 

[francis246]

You just pulled a shifty shift. I never liked Domi.



Everyone has a peak year around that age

lol Tavares had one great year with Marner and you’re saying he elevated Marner, yet he’s not been able to replicate it. Where as Marner is no longer playing Tavares and been pretty consistent at 90 points. So who elevated who?

Matthews goal totals also increased immediately once paired with Marner’s money. Yeah the 5 on 5 stats haven’t always been great but Matthews did become a more lethal goal scorer once playing with Marner. I’ll even account for the fact that maybe the injuries played a part in Matthews numbers a little bit during the ELC years.