Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[leafs in five]

my second family dog was a border collie and we lived in view/earshot of our local rink, keeping him off the ice was not an option

 

[francis246]

Hm, still think that Panarins ability to score goals are what separates them though.

Panarin isn’t some elite goal scoring machine. Before last year, his career high in goals was less than Marners. But he’s definitely found a good shooting touch in New York! Panarin or Gaudreau would be the two comparables.

 

[ToneDog]

So Friedman said the Avs did not want to pay 3 players big bucks because they do not think they can win with 3 players making that kind of money. They are prepared to pay Makar more than Mac when the time comes but not two players. They are not OK with Mac being the 3rd highest paid Av.

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This was from yesterday's Fan hockey show with Futa and Marchese. Kyper also had Friedman on his show and he shared his this thoughts which Friedman refused to touch. Kyper says Ranta would have taken less money but I don't think he is right when he says he thinks $12m gets it done. I'm guessing closer to $12.5m which is a significant discount from Draisaitl money.

 

[Hallonbroder]

Panarin isn’t some elite goal scoring machine. Before last year, his career high in goals was less than Marners. But he’s definitely found a good shooting touch in New York! Panarin or Gaudreau would be the two comparables.

Haha, why would you discount his best year though? He’s also got more 30-goal seasons than Richy (4vs2). I guess Gaudreau would be an OK comparable

 

[francis246]

Haha, why would you discount his best year though? He’s also got more 30-goal seasons than Richy (4vs2). I guess Gaudreau would be an OK comparable

Not discounting it, he broke out last year in terms of goal scoring. So I’m saying it’s an outlier. Same as Marners 35 at this point. Panarin is a 30 goal scorer. I’d say Mitch is a 25ish goal scorer. So they are fairly similar if you look at their overall careers.

 

[francis246]

So Friedman said the Avs did not want to pay 3 players big bucks because they do not think you can win with 3 players making that kind of money. They are prepared to pay makar more than Mac when the time comes though but not two players.

Kipper is saying the 14 million offer was bullshit. Rantanen’s camp wanted a little more than the Pastrnak contract and the Avs said no. Time stamp, 28:14.

So if true and kipper hate to say it, is usually in the know.. like I said a few days ago. This was not about money. This was a character issue being disguised as a cap issue. They did not want Rantanen apart of the program. You could have had Rantanen at a hair over 11.5 and you walk away from that?! Completely changes my opinion on the situation if true and I feel that it’s a dumb decision by Colorado.

And also if that’s true, I don’t see a world at ALL where Marner is making 14 million. Zero. If Rantanen isn’t asking for 14, there’s no market for wingers at 14. There probably isn’t even a market for wingers past 12.5 at this point.

 

[Jojalu]

Kipper is saying the 14 million offer was bullshit. Rantanen’s camp wanted a little more than the Pastrnak contract and the Avs said no. Time stamp, 28:14.

So if true and kipper hate to say it, is usually in the know.. like I said a few days ago. This was not about money. This was a character issue being disguised as a cap issue. They did not want Rantanen apart of the program. You could have had Rantanen at a hair over 11.5 and you walk away from that?! Completely changes my opinion on the situation if true and I feel that it’s a dumb decision by Colorado.

And also if that’s true, I don’t see a world at ALL where Marner is making 14 million. Zero. If Rantanen isn’t asking for 14, there’s no market for wingers at 14. There probably isn’t even a market for wingers past 12.5 at this point.

It just worries me that the Leafs have shown they kind of operate in their own cap world.

Even if Rantanen signs for 11.5 or even 12, I feel the Leafs will certainly pay Marner more.

14 and I might pull my remaining hair out. 13 will make me want to puke. But I do feel like it will be 12 something sadly

 

[Hallonbroder]

Kipper is saying the 14 million offer was bullshit. Rantanen’s camp wanted a little more than the Pastrnak contract and the Avs said no. Time stamp, 28:14.

So if true and kipper hate to say it, is usually in the know.. like I said a few days ago. This was not about money. This was a character issue being disguised as a cap issue. They did not want Rantanen apart of the program. You could have had Rantanen at a hair over 11.5 and you walk away from that?! Completely changes my opinion on the situation if true and I feel that it’s a dumb decision by Colorado.

And also if that’s true, I don’t see a world at ALL where Marner is making 14 million. Zero. If Rantanen isn’t asking for 14, there’s no market for wingers at 14. There probably isn’t even a market for wingers past 12.5 at this point.

Leafs will pay him that anyway. My guess is 13,8. He should be around 10-11, in a real franchise.

 

[tuckerintensity]

So Friedman said the Avs did not want to pay 3 players big bucks because they do not think you can win with 3 players making that kind of money. They are prepared to pay makar more than Mac when the time comes though but not two players.

In the sense that he didn't say that at all, sure, that's what he said.

 

[francis246]

It just worries me that the Leafs have shown they kind of operate in their own cap world.

Even if Rantanen signs for 11.5 or even 12, I feel the Leafs will certainly pay Marner more.

14 and I might pull my remaining hair out. 13 will make me want to puke. But I do feel like it will be 12 something sadly

Exactly what went through my head too. I’m guessing 12.5. I just hope they surprise us and agree at like 11.9 or something reasonable. Maybe Brad can correct the ship?

It also showed me we fans are dumb and believe anything. Colorado put on a master class of controlling the narrative. You can tell from Rantanens comments, he was completely blind sided.

My honest opinion is that they had decided long ago they weren’t resigning him. I think his hold out from last time pissed off Sakic and McFarland. They made sure to get him in a limited NTC, so that when they win the cup they can move him. Gotta give them credit it’s great long term planning. I’m sure they probably leaked the 14 mill number as well to take less backlash when they eventually made the move.

 

[francis246]

Leafs will pay him that anyway. My guess is 13,8. He should be around 10-11, in a real franchise.

God I hope not.

 

[GoonieFace]

Exactly what went through my head too. I’m guessing 12.5. I just hope they surprise us and agree at like 11.9 or something reasonable. Maybe Brad can correct the ship?

It also showed me we fans are dumb and believe anything. Colorado put on a master class of controlling the narrative. You can tell from Rantanens comments, he was completely blind sided.

My honest opinion is that they had decided long ago they weren’t resigning him. I think his hold out from last time pissed off Sakic and McFarland. They made sure to get him in a limited NTC, so that when they win the cup they can move him. Gotta give them credit it’s great long term planning. I’m sure they probably leaked the 14 mill number as well to take less backlash when they eventually made the move.

We really can’t trust what anyone says, there are only a few people that know what exactly happened.

Either way, I don’t think it affects Marner at all, as the Leafs operate in their own fantasy land.

 

[francis246]

We really can’t trust what anyone says, there are only a few people that know what exactly happened.

Either way, I don’t think it affects Marner at all, as the Leafs operate in their own fantasy land.

Absolutely we don’t know for sure, but more and more reports coming out that the asking price was no where close to 14. So who would have leaked that number? The only thing that makes sense is the Avs did. Ultimately all I’m saying is teams also have agenda’s so in that regard I do think it relates to Marner. We shouldn’t assume he’s been asking for 14.

I also agree with you the leafs operate in what I call Lala land.

 

[Hallonbroder]

Exactly what went through my head too. I’m guessing 12.5. I just hope they surprise us and agree at like 11.9 or something reasonable. Maybe Brad can correct the ship?

It also showed me we fans are dumb and believe anything. Colorado put on a master class of controlling the narrative. You can tell from Rantanens comments, he was completely blind sided.

My honest opinion is that they had decided long ago they weren’t resigning him. I think his hold out from last time pissed off Sakic and McFarland. They made sure to get him in a limited NTC, so that when they win the cup they can move him. Gotta give them credit it’s great long term planning. I’m sure they probably leaked the 14 mill number as well to take less backlash when they eventually made the move.

Given how he bent over on that Nylander deal (who should be around 9-10 mil) I’d say “don’t bet on it”

 

[GoonieFace]

Absolutely we don’t know for sure, but more and more reports coming out that the asking price was no where close to 14. So who would have leaked that number? The only thing that makes sense is the Avs did. Ultimately all I’m saying is teams also have agenda’s so in that regard I do think it relates to Marner. We shouldn’t assume he’s been asking for 14.

I also agree with you the leafs operate in what I call Lala land.

I also have a hard time believing they think he is worth $14 mil. Maybe they asked just for jokes. It’s a tough situation to get a read on.

 

[Hallonbroder]

I also have a hard time believing they think he is worth $14 mil. Maybe they asked just for jokes. It’s a tough situation to get a read on.

Kypreos would pay him 14,8 if he was the GM

 

[francis246]

I also have a hard time believing they think he is worth $14 mil. Maybe they asked just for jokes. It’s a tough situation to get a read on.

I’m sure the number was thrown out there as part of, Draisaitl made that and maybe that’s what I could get out on the market. Cause Rantanen’s one of the best playoff performers in the NHL. But I’m sure he wasn’t asking for it.

It’s definitely hard to read. I’m just inferring a bit. But it seems like they felt they were gonna get screwed or didn’t want to take the risk of getting screwed by Rantanen and decided to move off him. Probably some of that comes from past negotiations. But who knows. Whole situations got a weird vibe to it.

I also have a hard time believing they think he is worth $14 mil. Maybe they asked just for jokes. It’s a tough situation to get a read on.

In terms of Marner, I think he wants more than Nylander. So that’s what they are competing with. How much more? Only Marner knows.

 

[Hallonbroder]

I’m sure the number was thrown out there as part of, Draisaitl made that and maybe that’s what I could get out on the market. Cause Rantanen’s one of the best playoff performers in the NHL. But I’m sure he wasn’t asking for it.

It’s definitely hard to read. I’m just inferring a bit. But it seems like they felt they were gonna get screwed or didn’t want to take the risk of getting screwed by Rantanen and decided to move off him. Probably some of that comes from past negotiations. But who knows. Whole situations got a weird vibe to it.



In terms of Marner, I think he wants more than Nylander. So that’s what they are competing with. How much more? Only Marner knows.

If he wants that (and if course he does), what does Brad etc have to counter that with? Some reasonable ones;
- Willy performed way above his previous deal and deserved a raise (not that big though)
- Willy scores more goals
- Willy had stronger playoffs
- Mitch already got paid. A lot.
- “Hometown boy” who should take a discount?
- …..

I dunno. Feels like we all know that Marner will get way more than his market value.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That’s why they were overpaid, it didn’t pan out and they want raises as if it did. It doesn’t matter to them next year’s cap in all likelihood should have been the cap 2 years ago. That’s what we based their pay on. Therefore guys like Marner aren’t being underpaid by not getting an increase now.

The previous contract and past league situation has nothing to do with this contract. They weren't the ones that stagnated the cap, and the stagnated cap hurt both player and team. The team didn't get as much surplus value as they would have otherwise through those contracts, and the player is now having to re-sign under a lower cap than they would have otherwise. All contracts are based on some level of cap inflation, but they still weren't overpaid. They outperformed those contracts, even at the cap we had. And now they just want to be paid what they're worth, like everybody else.

I'm sure they can, and I'm sure they can very accurately too, if you actually had a track record of proving anything correct I'm sure more posters would take interest but that just ain't the case.

I have an excellent track record of being correct, but you still never learn.
Also not really sure what this has to do with the different types and forms of points.

11.75M actually lines up remarkably well with how other elite wingers are valued/paid around the league

Top tier UFAs get more than 12-13%. They tend to get above 14%, with the very top usually around 15-16%. This is more Seguin type money. Heck, it's less than Panarin got.

I'm sure Makar will be negotiated relative to the value the best defensemen in the league would carry.

I'm sure he will. And when that's more than 12.6m, are they going to trade him?

 

[ToneDog]

Kipper is saying the 14 million offer was bullshit. Rantanen’s camp wanted a little more than the Pastrnak contract and the Avs said no. Time stamp, 28:14.

So if true and kipper hate to say it, is usually in the know.. like I said a few days ago. This was not about money. This was a character issue being disguised as a cap issue. They did not want Rantanen apart of the program. You could have had Rantanen at a hair over 11.5 and you walk away from that?! Completely changes my opinion on the situation if true and I feel that it’s a dumb decision by Colorado.

And also if that’s true, I don’t see a world at ALL where Marner is making 14 million. Zero. If Rantanen isn’t asking for 14, there’s no market for wingers at 14. There probably isn’t even a market for wingers past 12.5 at this point.

I'm not sure about the $14m because Friedman has said it in the past. Kyper also thought $12m was a significant discount. I'm thinking it was higher. You could be right but there is no indication it was anything other than not wanting to pay him and eventually Makar more than MacKinnon.

According to Friedman, Avs offered to make him highest winger @ 11.75m so not sure where you got hair over 11.5m.

Friedman also thinks they got along but there may have been some bad feelings over their last negotiations 15 something minute mark.

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[ToneDog]

In the sense that he didn't say that at all, sure, that's what he said.

Maybe it was "they did not think they could win with 3 guys making the big money".

Real Kyper and Bourne

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If he wants that (and if course he does), what does Brad etc have to counter that with? Some reasonable ones;
- Willy performed way above his previous deal and deserved a raise (not that big though)
- Willy scores more goals
- Willy had stronger playoffs
- Mitch already got paid. A lot.
- “Hometown boy” who should take a discount?
- …..

I dunno. Feels like we all know that Marner will get way more than his market value.

No question about it. I can see Canes signing Ranta and then Leafs signing Marner for more. Trust me, it will not go well for Marner and Leafs management if he and the team do not perform in the playoffs.

 

[francis246]

If he wants that (and if course he does), what does Brad etc have to counter that with? Some reasonable ones;
- Willy performed way above his previous deal and deserved a raise (not that big though)
- Willy scores more goals
- Willy had stronger playoffs
- Mitch already got paid. A lot.
- “Hometown boy” who should take a discount?
- …..

I dunno. Feels like we all know that Marner will get way more than his market value.

I’m not arguing in favour of Marner being paid significantly more than Nylander. But he’s a better overall player. I’d love matching deals IMO. But with the scales and cap it won’t happen. This team made a few mistakes back during the ELC years. They either should have burned a year of one of Nylander or Marner’s contract the year prior. They drafted well in the first round but it was kinda crazy to think you could have all 3 expire so close together. Personally I think the decision to not burn 9 games for Marner the year before turned out to be a bad one, hindsight of course. The team was bad anyways, give him 10 games and send him back to junior. Would have expired same year as Willy and you could have gotten both at a cost controlled number. They had no idea Matthews would land in their lap.

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

I think we all need to get a bit more in-line with reality. Dude probably ain't going anywhere. This lil' wait here isn't because of some tough negotiation. This isn't about seeing how he does in the playoffs, either. Both Mitch and the team would sign a deal yesterday if they could. They're waiting to see where the cap lands and going to do a deal based on a reasonably prescriptive (for both sides), % of the cap. What that % is that they settle on, I have no idea.

With all the numbers being thrown into the sky, I still and have always felt like 12.5 x 8 gets Mitch his big ticket #, as he would be the first player in Leaf History to get a $100M contract. That's gotta be worth something to the ego, and the Leafs should hinge their offer on this to keep the number around there. It also gets him the 'status' marker, between Matty and Willy.

Anything more would be an unnecessary cash grab, and would seem like the team getting out-negotiated once again, to me.

Now for all our "% of the cap" guys out there, if the cap does forecast up to 100M, is 12.5% reasonable for a long-term commitment to an elite winger around the league?

 

[IPS]

I have an excellent track record of being correct, but you still never learn.
Also not really sure what this has to do with the different types and forms of points.

Your reputation is pretty well established around here regardless of what you attempt to assert

 

[IPS]

Top tier UFAs get more than 12-13%. They tend to get above 14%, with the very top usually around 15-16%. This is more Seguin type money. Heck, it's less than Panarin got.

There's been one UFA winger in recent years who signed above 14% and it was Panarin

Way off the mark here sparky.