Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[francis246]

A lot of people around here don't feel things like ticket price fatigue are part of the teams decision making process


Dubas was shit and is still a shit GM

Agreed, more importantly it kind of changes the narrative that players completely f***ed over the organization like Mess is trying to claim. Dubas probably could have had these guys all on 8 year deals but prioritized aligning their contracts with a potential cap raises. Maximizing both team options and giving the players the best opportunity to make as much money as they can. This is coming straight from his mouth. I think he honestly believed he was going to be innovative in terms of contracts and the rest of the league would follow and probably convinced the players of the same. Ended up backfiring.

 

[Confucius]

I think that deal is already on the table. It’s probably inbetween 12 and 13. We’ve already heard the leafs have made Marner the offer and their internal cap is not higher than Matthews. So they’ve probably already set the number. That’s why I think people worrying about 14 are working themselves up for nothing. If Marner is making 14, he won’t be a Maple Leaf. So at the end of the day it’s a win.

I also disagree with Marner saving himself. He’s been over PPG every year since signing that contract. Shit the bed in the playoffs for sure, no goals in 2 years is bad. But this idea that he only turns up in contract years is pretty false and the numbers back that up.



Did attendance drop during the Kessel era when they were ass for 9/10 years lol?

I never heard we made an offer but if we did offer that, fire the guy who made it.

 

[francis246]

I never heard we made an offer but if we did offer that, fire the guy who made it.

Marner ain’t making 11 like you suggested. His market value is at least 12. I don’t think it’s 14. But a UFA team would give him 12 for sure. He’s making more than Nylander so expecting him not to is a pipe dream.

 

[Confucius]

Marner ain’t making 11 like you suggested. His market value is at least 12. I don’t think it’s 14. But a UFA team would give him 12 for sure. He’s making more than Nylander so expecting him not to is a pipe dream.

If he is worth 12 and some team offers it, he’ll take 11 to stay.

 

[francis246]

They have cap to make them better and Necas is good. That is making the team better

Has anyone actually calculated how much Colorado is expected to save with this move?

 

[Hallonbroder]

Has anyone actually calculated how much Colorado is expected to save with this move?

Well, now they have space (kinda) to activate Landeskog if he’s ready, or get a another top 6fwd for this years playoffs.

If this is just straight up for Necas, then they’re saving a few mil/per since he’s not getting a Rantanen-kinda deal

 

[thewave]

Has anyone actually calculated how much Colorado is expected to save with this move?

They have 6m or so extra to spend next season. Heck they could probably throw 7m to JT.

 

[ULF_55]

I suspect the agent is waiting out the league to formally announce the next cap, or at least give a firmer confirmation of just how high the raise will be. , Gives them the ability to up the AAV based on cap hit %

He should just sign a 1 year contract, that way he could get an increase every year until he can't.

Be interesting to see who gets more Rantanen or marner?

 

[Sypher04]

If he is worth 12 and some team offers it, he’ll take 11 to stay.

He makes 10.9 now, I see no chance that he’s taking 11 to stay.

His extension will start with a 12 imo, probably mid 12s

Take the Nylander deal, adjust it for cap inflation and add a bit more and that is where Mitch extension like lands

 

[ToneDog]

I think that deal is already on the table. It’s probably inbetween 12 and 13. We’ve already heard the leafs have made Marner the offer and their internal cap is not higher than Matthews. So they’ve probably already set the number. That’s why I think people worrying about 14 are working themselves up for nothing. If Marner is making 14, he won’t be a Maple Leaf. So at the end of the day it’s a win.

I also disagree with Marner saving himself. He’s been over PPG every year since signing that contract. Shit the bed in the playoffs for sure, no goals in 2 years is bad. But this idea that he only turns up in contract years is pretty false and the numbers back that up.



Did attendance drop during the Kessel era when they were ass for 9/10 years lol?

Does not mean the paying customer is happy. Pretty sure I've heard Kyper say corps paying for platinum seats put pressure on the team to ice an entertaining product and I believe him.

 

[francis246]

If he is worth 12 and some team offers it, he’ll take 11 to stay.

Haha, I want whatever you’re taking right now!

Unfortunately players don’t negotiate in terms of dollars. It’s cap percentage. So even if Marner agrees to Nylander’s cap percentage it will end up higher

 

[Confucius]

Haha, I want whatever you’re taking right now!

Unfortunately players don’t negotiate in terms of dollars. It’s cap percentage. So even if Marner agrees to Nylander’s cap percentage it will end up higher

Well he’s definitely getting less cap percentage. When you see 11 don’t forget to send your apologies

 

[ToneDog]

He makes 10.9 now, I see no chance that he’s taking 11 to stay.

His extension will start with a 12 imo, probably mid 12s

Take the Nylander deal, adjust it for cap inflation and add a bit more and that is where Mitch extension like lands

According to Mirtle, such a deal would have been done if Mitch accepted it.. Ferris seems to be dug in over $1m higher probably closer to $13.8m (ironically the number Kyper threw out there the day after he said Marner was asking Draisaitl money and took a lot of heat).

 

[Sypher04]

Haha, I want whatever you’re taking right now!

Unfortunately players don’t negotiate in terms of dollars. It’s cap percentage. So even if Marner agrees to Nylander’s cap percentage it will end up higher

Nylander’s 13.1% x projected cap next year, is the baseline and probably then add a bit from there.

If next year is 92.5 million then I think it’ll end up around 12.5 million AAV

If they actually go up to ~97 million then it’ll be more, think closer to $13 million AAV.

 

[TMLAM34]

If the Leafs get knocked out of the playoffs early and Marner has another disappointing playoffs, I sure as hell am not throwing 12.5 million at him to stay. Time for a change.

 

[ToneDog]

Nylander’s 13.1% x projected cap next year, is the baseline and probably then add a bit from there.

If next year is 92.5 million then I think it’ll end up around 12.5 million AAV

If they actually go up to ~97 million then it’ll be more, think closer to $13 million AAV.

This is why I think he should take $12.8m and run. His goal scoring is trending down. Be happy Tre offers you that money because I would not. This team can't score goals, especially on nights when Nylander goes AWOL. Be interesting to see if the Leafs offer him less than Ranta if Ranta signs first.

 

[Sypher04]

Actually looking at 34 and 88 deals:

Nylander 13.1% cap
Matthews 15.1% cap

Not saying I want this necessarily, but you could see where a Marner deal might split the difference at around 14.1%

14.1% of 92.5 million cap = $13,042,500
14.1% of 97.0 million cap = $13,677,000

It’d be nice to know what of the reported figures for projected cap next year teams are currently having to negotiate against.

You can see where the higher 13 numbers are coming from if the 97 mil cap projection is what’s being used.

 

[Antropovsky]

[

LMFAOO if there was a gold medal in mental gymnastics you would win by a landslide.

I’ve never seen someone make a bigger deal out of little phrases than you.

Marner said “help this team” instead of “our team” negotiations must be going oh so bad,

That phrasing literally doesn’t stand out for anyone except you. If you have a clear bias against someone those are things that are over anyalzed.

They’ve been playing like shit. Wins and losses. He hasn’t been playing his best either. You think he’s gonna be all happy and rainbows when they are losing games they feel like they should be winning? Additionally there could be 10,000 things happening in a persons life. That can cause them to be withdrawn. Maybe it’s not even hockey related. So reading into a little comment & spinning it as some sort of fact is pure delusion and should be called out.

Nylander and Robertson both showed a ton of frustration on Saturday, slamming sticks on the glass. Shaking heads. Marner was frustrated as well. The offense has dried up, the team is frustrated that they cannot produce offense/cannot score. That will obviously reflect in their comments post game.

Do you ever actually read others posts attentively, or are you always too busy focusing on your own responses? I was talking specifically about interviews after beating Jersey and before the following game vs Tampa.

Marner was subdued in the Jersey post game after "winning", he was subdued in the following pregame interview vs Tampa too. By comparison other leafs in the same postgame and pregames actually were upbeat. That attitude seemed to carry over into the game VS Tampa where he was caught on the broadcast having a mini tantrum on the bench, and the broadcast team for Tampa noticed and discussed Marner being upset with something. Later Marner was hit in the game hard and got up and had a bit of a tantrum. Somebody in the reddit Leaf thread noticed the out of character response to the hit too. Even after scoring his empty net goal vs Tampa to secure the "victory" he still just shook his head, scowl and muttered things to himself instead of celebrate the goal whatsoever with his teammates. Which is off because it was a great empty net goal (for an empty net goal).

 

[thewave]

Actually looking at 34 and 88 deals:

Nylander 13.1% cap
Matthews 15.1% cap

Not saying I want this necessarily, but you could see where a Marner deal could split the difference at around 14.1%

14.1% of 92.5 million cap = $13,042,500
14.1% of 97.0 million cap = $13,677,000

It’d be nice to know what of the reported figures for projected cap next year teams are currently having to negotiate against.

You can see where the higher 13 numbers are coming from if the 97 mil cap projection is what’s being used.

This is yet another very flawed way of looking at it. A multiple Rocket winning Center is not comparable to nothing winning winger.

Nylander is not worth 13.1%
Marner is not worth 13.1%

Matthews as best scorer in the league multiple times is getting top dollar. The Marner people are dreaming up creative ways to give this guy a raise. It's weird.

 

[Sypher04]

This is yet another very flawed way of looking at it. A multiple Rocket winning Center is not comparable to nothing winning winger.

Nylander is not worth 13.1%
Marner is not worth 13.1%

Matthews as best scorer in the league multiple times is getting top dollar. The Marner people are dreaming up creative ways to give this guy a raise. It's weird.

It’s flawed only in that we don’t know where between 13.1 and 15.1 it’ll land, but the logic that it will be between those numbers is very very sound. The rest is just me picking a number obviously

Also go away with the “marner people” stuff. I’m not dreaming up creative ways to give the man a raise, I’m talking logically about the fact we can expect marner to land cap percentage wise between two other stars on this team, as conventional thinking is that’s where he belongs in quality amongst the three amigos

 

[thewave]

It’s flawed only in that we don’t know where between 13.1 and 15.1 it’ll land, but the logic that it will be between those numbers is very very sound. The rest is just me picking a number obviously

By all rights it should land with him waiving and getting shipped out of town for a Necas type deal. That's where he will discover anywhere else in the world he is worth at best what he is making today, about 11m.

They need to take back the cap structure

 

[Confucius]

This is yet another very flawed way of looking at it. A multiple Rocket winning Center is not comparable to nothing winning winger.

Nylander is not worth 13.1%
Marner is not worth 13.1%

Matthews as best scorer in the league multiple times is getting top dollar. The Marner people are dreaming up creative ways to give this guy a raise. It's weird.

Another flaw is because we overpaid you before we have to keep doing it. Since we have more to spend we should take that into account an add that on as well

 

[Sypher04]

By all rights it should land with him waiving and getting shipped out of town for a Necas type deal. That's where he will discover anywhere else in the world he is worth at best what he is making today, about 11m.

That’s certainly one opinion.

I garuantee Marner gets more than $11M on the open market.
This isn’t even really a question.

Another flaw is because we overpaid you before we have to keep doing it. Since we have more to spend we should take that into account an add that on as well

If contracts around the league have ever worked like that you might have a point.

My post is less flawed than it is that you and thewave need to join reality here

Nylander got 13.1 last offseason. The cap is going way up, and Marner is the better player by most accounts, on this team he’s going to get a higher percentage.

 

[francis246]

Well he’s definitely getting less cap percentage. When you see 11 don’t forget to send your apologies

Lololol. I’m gonna book mark this. If they get him at 11, I’ll happily eat crow and apologize… but I think there’s maybe a 5 percent chance that happens. If Marner did that, he’d probably be the most beloved leaf again.

 

[Antropovsky]

He makes 10.9 now, I see no chance that he’s taking 11 to stay.

His extension will start with a 12 imo, probably mid 12s

Take the Nylander deal, adjust it for cap inflation and add a bit more and that is where Mitch extension like lands

Gaudreau coming off a 40 g 115 point season and 14 points in 12 postseason games only received 11.82% of the cap x7 years as a UFA. That would be about 11.3 million next season if the cap is 95 million.

I think there is a distinct drop between Draisaitl, Mackinnon etc to Marner and teams know this. Wingers just don't have the same importance to centers and also Marner is a runt and size matters in the NHL.