Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[francis246]

We simply needed Hyman to score more. Why does it have to have a name like expected goals?
It seems to me that it doesn’t take into account the goalie

in fairness Hyman was utter dog shit against Montreal. The guy missed so many DAMN CHANCES. I actually humoured myself and watched a few highlights. The top line in general was complete trash against Montreal. Wasn't that the Alex Kerfoot series? Thinking back to the Montreal series brings back such horrid memories.

 

[Martin Skoula]

in fairness Hyman was utter dog shit against Montreal. The guy missed so many DAMN CHANCES. I actually humoured myself and watched a few highlights. The top line in general was complete trash against Montreal. Wasn't that the Alex Kerfoot series? Thinking back to the Montreal series brings back such horrid memories.

I feel like people forget that Hyman had the same season he had with us his first year in Edmonton, his numbers didn’t take off until he started getting top unit PP time and miraculously learned to quickly lift pucks in tight at 30. I went through quite literally every single one of his goals with us at one point, there was maybe 3 that weren’t a tip, slid in along the ice, or a shot on the PK where he was in alone and had time to load up a wrist shot. The Knies/JVR style roofs in tight simply did not happen here, all his work in front of the net here was shovelling in pucks along the ice. When you watch his recent Edmonton highlights it’s night and day.

 

[LeafEgo]

Two things can be true:

1) He signed an unreasonable contract,

2) he lived up to said contract in the regular season.

If Marner had Rantanen’s playoff production everyone would he saying “we paid into potential, and it worked” or “we bought in early”.

Think about it like this, adding 500k per term year, the eight year equivalent RFA contracts signed in that era:

Matty 13.1M
McD 12.5M
Mitch 11.9M

Ranta 10.2M
Makar 10M
Eichel 10M
J Rob 9.7M
Connor 7.6M

I dont think Matty or Mitch lived up to those RFA price points, they just wern't reasonable. And if you create a hypothetical where they did, it still wasn't necessary.

 

[Racer88]

in fairness Hyman was utter dog shit against Montreal. The guy missed so many DAMN CHANCES. I actually humoured myself and watched a few highlights. The top line in general was complete trash against Montreal. Wasn't that the Alex Kerfoot series? Thinking back to the Montreal series brings back such horrid memories.

Stop……I’m trying to quit. lol

 

[leafs in five]

If Trudeau was still in charge, they would.

Give this a few more seconds of thought

Shitty luck is like 5% , 95% on the players management.

Like Woll not playing because he tweaked his back o. A save he didn’t have to make with 1 second left is true bad luck. Perry destroying Tavares was bad luck as well. That robbed us of Game 1. There was no focus for a legit reason after that. I think those are the two unlucky things. Everything else was our own doing really

Woll only had to try to make that save because the skaters on the ice stopped playing with 5 seconds left

 

[Dekes For Days]

We simply needed Hyman to score more. Why does it have to have a name like expected goals? It seems to me that it doesn’t take into account the goalie

We needed Hyman to score more. Their strategy was throw everything at Matthews and Marner, and we needed Hyman to do something with that space and those chances.

Individual expected goals is how many goals a league average shooter would score on league average goaltending, given the quantity and quality of their shots. It just helps give perspective on how much of the conversion struggles were tied to him. He scored 4.9 goals less than a league average shooter would score on a league average goalie in those 7 games.

Price did really well in that series, so it's not all on Hyman, but he's definitely a focus if we're talking about needing that one more goal from someone. If anything, Marner was the most effective one on that line. He still generated chances as the playmaker. We just had Matthews suffering through a surgery-requiring wrist injury, Hyman struggling to convert, and Price standing on his head.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Think about it like this, adding 500k per term year, the eight year equivalent RFA contracts signed in that era:

Matty 13.1M
McD 12.5M
Mitch 11.9M

Ranta 10.2M
Makar 10M
Eichel 10M
J Rob 9.7M
Connor 7.6M

I dont think Matty or Mitch lived up to those RFA price points, they just wern't reasonable. And if you create a hypothetical where they did, it still wasn't necessary.

If you adjust for the cap and add 500k per year, the 8 year equivalent RFA contracts under an 81.5m cap would be:

McDavid (negotiated): 14.4m
McDavid (post discount): 13.6m
Matthews: 13.4m
Marner: 11.9m
Eichel: 10.9m
Rantanen: 10.3m

Much more reasonable. I'm not really sure why you added a defenseman, a bridge contract, and a player from Nylander's tier, but picking out some of the higher surplus value contracts in the league is not how you evaluate contracts. Whether or not you think they provided as much surplus value as those contracts, they provided more value than their cap hits. This was the necessary cost to sign them, and signing them was absolutely the right choice.

 

[Aashir]

If you adjust for the cap and add 500k per year, the 8 year equivalent RFA contracts under an 81.5m cap would be:

McDavid (negotiated): 14.4m
McDavid (post discount): 13.6m
Matthews: 13.4m
Marner: 11.9m
Eichel: 10.9m
Rantanen: 10.3m

Much more reasonable. I'm not really sure why you added a defenseman, a bridge contract, and a player from Nylander's tier, but picking out some of the higher surplus value contracts in the league is not how you evaluate contracts. Whether or not you think they provided as much surplus value as those contracts, they provided more value than their cap hits. This was the necessary cost to sign them, and signing them was absolutely the right choice.

why is what mcdavid "negotiated" even matter, he didn't sign that.

The "discount" is what set the standard, not some number that wasn't ever in the contract. Even that isn't reasonable as Matthews had a calder to mcdavid's catalogue of major awards.

I'm not even going to argue with you about marner being a worse player than eichel and rantanen, as we both know neither of us will agree there.

 

[Dekes For Days]

why is what mcdavid "negotiated" even matter, he didn't sign that. The "discount" is what set the standard, not some number that wasn't ever in the contract. Even that isn't reasonable as Matthews had a calder to mcdavid's catalogue of major awards.

I included both, but the negotiated is technically the standard. That's what the team offered the player. That's what the player was worth. McDavid and Matthews were a lot closer in quality through their respective pre-signing periods than people like to admit. Even with McDavid's production advantages, they both actually had the exact same primary points per game.

I'm not even going to argue with you about marner being a worse player than eichel and rantanen, as we both know neither of us will agree there.

I get how people make the mistake with Rantanen because his raw production was inflated, but the Eichel one is baffling. He hadn't even hit P/GP.

 

[francis246]

Stop……I’m trying to quit. lol

Go back and watch the series man. It is bad. Mitch wasn’t great, but I gotta give @Dekes For Days credit. You will be disgusted at the open looks Hyman missed. Price definitely played out of his mind but there were some where Hyman should have buried a few. I maybe wouldn’t go as far as to say Mitch was the most effective but Matthews and Mitch set up Hyman a lot and a ton of slot chances and there’s nothing to show for it. I’m always on the side of reviewing the tape and if you go back and watch it’s true.

 

[Evilhomer]

Give this a few more seconds of thought

I wouldn't want to waste any additional seconds on the Liberal Party of Canada.

 

[Gabriel426]

in fairness Hyman was utter dog shit against Montreal. The guy missed so many DAMN CHANCES. I actually humoured myself and watched a few highlights. The top line in general was complete trash against Montreal. Wasn't that the Alex Kerfoot series? Thinking back to the Montreal series brings back such horrid memories.

The Habs series was the Willie series where he pretty much dominated.
Kerfoot showed that a graduate from Harvard doesn’t mean high IQ on Ice.
Also the over the glass play by MM in the elimination game.

 

[Divine]

Colorado just traded Rantanen but we can't trade Marner because he's too valuable. I'd have offered Marner straight up for him but Marner wouldn't waive his NTC knowing we're getting a better player

 

[Evilhomer]

Colorado just traded Rantanen but we can't trade Marner because he's too valuable. I'd have offered Marner straight up for him but Marner wouldn't waive his NTC knowing we're getting a better player

This is going to go so badly for Carolina. He will not resign there, and they will have given up significant assets for nothing. Sweet trade.

 

[kevsh]

Sakic understands something that MLSE still doesn't: You can have multiple $10M+ players on your roster and win.

Even before Rantanen's new deal (if he re-signed) Colorado had depth problems. Toronto also has depth problems, but their answer is to keep giving raises to their stars apparently still holding onto the hope that their greatness will overshadow that lack of depth.

But I do wonder what Treliving is thinking right now. If he wasn't handcuffed by Shanahan, would he by trying to move Mitch for the same reason Colorado is moving on from Rantanen? Or is just 100% all-in on the MLSE philosophy?

 

[francis246]

Colorado just traded Rantanen but we can't trade Marner because he's too valuable. I'd have offered Marner straight up for him but Marner wouldn't waive his NTC knowing we're getting a better player

Rantanen has a limited NTC bud. Marner has a full. I’m sure if Marner had limited Trade protection they would be open to trading him.

Also would just like to point out I knew Rantanen would not be an Avalanche next year!!

 

[ACC1224]

This is going to go so badly for Carolina. He will not resign there, and they will have given up significant assets for nothing. Sweet trade.

I’m sure they know he’ll sign, they don’t have the Mackinnon cap.

 

[francis246]

Sakic understands something that MLSE still doesn't: You can have multiple $10M+ players on your roster and win.

Even before Rantanen's new deal (if he re-signed) Colorado had depth problems. Toronto also has depth problems, but their answer is to keep giving raises to their stars apparently still holding onto the hope that their greatness will overshadow that lack of depth.

But I do wonder what Treliving is thinking right now. If he wasn't handcuffed by Shanahan, would he by trying to move Mitch for the same reason Colorado is moving on from Rantanen? Or is just 100% all-in on the MLSE philosophy?

Lmfao. No. Sakic understands this is a player who’s been unhappy for a while. There’s been smoke of Rantanen not feeling valued by management. We’ll see how he does in Carolina.

 

[Divine]

Rantanen has a limited NTC bud. Marner has a full. I’m sure if Marner had limited Trade protection they would be open to trading him.

Also would just like to point out I knew Rantanen would not be an Avalanche next year!!

Both will be UFA's July 1st. Choose Rantanen.

Is Carolina going to give Rantanen 14M? They lost Guentzel because they wouldn't give him 9M.

 

[Evilhomer]

They j

I’m sure they know he’ll sign, they don’t have the Mackinnon cap.

ust went through this with Guentzel. I would be shocked if Rantanen doesn't go to free agency.

 

[LeafEgo]

If you adjust for the cap and add 500k per year, the 8 year equivalent RFA contracts under an 81.5m cap would be:

McDavid (negotiated): 14.4m
McDavid (post discount): 13.6m
Matthews: 13.4m
Marner: 11.9m
Eichel: 10.9m
Rantanen: 10.3m

Much more reasonable. I'm not really sure why you added a defenseman, a bridge contract, and a player from Nylander's tier, but picking out some of the higher surplus value contracts in the league is not how you evaluate contracts. Whether or not you think they provided as much surplus value as those contracts, they provided more value than their cap hits. This was the necessary cost to sign them, and signing them was absolutely the right choice.

Some a bit before and some a bit after, dmen are fine, which is why we came to the same conclusion. If we have to nickel and dime this thing let's note that Ranta only had a nine team ntc.

The only thing that matters is how cap hits relate to other teams. That was the only point of this, not rehashing old news.

 

[Mr_Fun]

Go back and watch the series man. It is bad. Mitch wasn’t great, but I gotta give @Dekes For Days credit. You will be disgusted at the open looks Hyman missed. Price definitely played out of his mind but there were some where Hyman should have buried a few. I maybe wouldn’t go as far as to say Mitch was the most effective but Matthews and Mitch set up Hyman a lot and a ton of slot chances and there’s nothing to show for it. I’m always on the side of reviewing the tape and if you go back and watch it’s true.

I'm interested now. Is there a video that you recommend that just has the the highlights, or, are you saying watch every game from start to finish?

 

[ACC1224]

They j

ust went through this with Guentzel. I would be shocked if Rantanen doesn't go to free agency.

More to the point Avalanche wouldn’t give him more than MacKinnon so he was good with leaving

 

[Evilhomer]

More to the point Avalanche wouldn’t give him more than MacKinnon so he was good with leaving

I guess, but I'm not sure I follow the logic. Colorado is a worse team today but they get to pound their chest because they kept their salary structure intact? Isn't the idea to assemble the best players you can in order to win? Colorado is farther away from winning now than they were a few hours ago.

As for Carolina, my guess is that they will lose MR to free agency, lose in the second or third round as they always do because they still refuse to upgrade their goaltending, and be left with Taylor Hall. Meanwhile, Vegas will somehow find a way to sign MR on July 1.

 

[ToneDog]

This is going to go so badly for Carolina. He will not resign there, and they will have given up significant assets for nothing. Sweet trade.

Not if he helps them get to the SCF. If he will not resign there, this trade could open the door for Ranta to sign here. Only if Shanny and Pelley show some balls of course and show Marner to Pearson.