Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[Hallonbroder]

Having Marner isn't the reason that we haven't won a cup, and keeping Marner is our best chance at a cup.

But….WHY? HOW???

 

[Dekes For Days]

But….WHY? HOW???

Because he's one of the best players in the league.

 

[Hallonbroder]

I can’t help anyone who thinks Marner has been better than Rantanen. That’s just false. We also can’t argue Tkachuk numbers especially the year the lost and playing with a broken chest essentially.

I do think sometimes the lack of team success bleeds over onto Marner’s shoulders unfairly. But it comes with the cap hit. I think Montreal was really the worst because if he gives us a goal we win that series.

Isn’t the whole argument that Marners a perimeter player, which works when there’s more space in the regular season, but not in the playoffs?

He is one of the best players on the leafs, hence he deserves a lot of the criticism, especially since his cap hit’s been way higher than say Nylanders up til this season.

Also - I get it, you don’t want to lose home for nothing. Sure. But what you’re actually getting is a lot of cap space and the means to try something else instead of just rinse and repeating what doesn’t work.

 

[LeafEgo]

Tkachuk is really overrated as this prototype playoff player. Couldn’t do shit in Calgary. Forced a trade to the best team In the NHL and was carried in the playoffs last year. He didn’t score a goal in like the last 9 or 10 games of the playoffs and took some boneheaded penalties that allowed Edmonton back in the series.

Verhaghe and Reinhart were much more productive and were the heart beat of Florida’s win if we are being really honest with ourselves.

Chucky is over a point per game with Florida in the playoffs, 17 goals, most points on the team (by eight, led both years), most game winning goals in the 23 tournament (despite a broken sternum), second in hits, scf, sc win, dear lord.

Don't know where this Calgary narrative started either he was great for them as well they just wern't a great team.

 

[Hallonbroder]

Because he's one of the best players in the league.

Pretty crazy that the leafs hasnt won more than one series in 8 years with two of the best players in the world, no?

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think Montreal was really the worst because if he gives us a goal we win that series.

He did give us a goal in the Montreal series. They just incorrectly attributed it to Hyman. What we really needed was for Hyman to score 1 goal on the 4.9 expected goals Marner set up for him.

 

[arso40]

He did give us a goal in the Montreal series. They just incorrectly attributed it to Hyman. What we really needed was for Hyman to score 1 goal on the 4.9 expected goals Marner set up for him.

Your something lol I’ll give you that

 

[GoonieFace]

He did give us a goal in the Montreal series. They just incorrectly attributed it to Hyman. What we really needed was for Hyman to score 1 goal on the 4.9 expected goals Marner set up for him.

Man, you are exhausting

 

[Gary Nylund]

Your something lol I’ll give you that

Not sure who you're talking to, but I'm guessing that he might even be something else.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Pretty crazy that the leafs hasnt won more than one series in 8 years with two of the best players in the world, no?

A lot more factors into winning a cup in hockey. It's an unfortunate trivia fact that makes more sense when you look deeper at the context, and doesn't mean what some people want it to mean.

Man, you are exhausting

Ditto. Y'all are welcome to try and find the puck actually hitting his stick.

 

[Racer88]

But….WHY? HOW???

There are many reasons why we have only 1 single round win the last 9 years……….from bad luck to Covid and everything in between.
It simply can’t be the players because we all know they are so awesome

 

[Antropovsky]

I like Marner but he is very, very much a perimeter player. It seems to work in the regular season but does not in the playoffs - obviously. You can see it by his goal totals. Goals, especially in the playoffs, are going to be scored closer to the goalie - within the perimeter.

This year he has become even better at playing the perimeter. But getting better at something that doesn't work in the playoffs doesn't mean thaaaat much to me.

Even as a playmaker, he NEEDS to get in closer to the net to be effective in the playoffs. He's just not doing that at all.

3 of columbus 4 goals yesterday were created a few feet from the net.

The only Leaf goal created was similarly a few feet from the net, set up by Nylander. In fact I saw Nylander take the puck to the net and few times, instead of cruise the perimeter.

Marner primarily is trying to create plays 30-60 feet from the net.

Yesterday's highlights were primarily Nylander and then the Columbus goals. There were a couple Domi line chances but 0 Matthews Marner chances on the highlights.

I recall one point blank slot shots by Marner that I believe Matthews set up. Marner soft one timer hit the goalie right in the crest. I don't recall any point blank chances by Matthews set up by Marner. Though i missed some of the play. Did Marner set Matthews up much?

I also think Marner setting Matthews up is very predictable for goalies because Marner literally is just focused on passing to Matthews. So goalies are usually prepared to make the save.

 

[Racer88]

Your something lol I’ll give you that

Expected goals……..a totally bogus stat for the losing team. Winners count real goals not pretend ones

 

[WTFMAN99]

Expected goals……..a totally bogus stat for the losing team. Winners count real goals not pretend ones

Leafs have won the corsi / GF% / expected goals cup so many years...they don't raise banners for that though.

 

[ACC1224]

Chucky is over a point per game with Florida in the playoffs, 17 goals, most points on the team (by eight, led both years), most game winning goals in the 23 tournament (despite a broken sternum), second in hits, scf, sc win, dear lord.

Don't know where this Calgary narrative started either he was great for them as well they just wern't a great team.

Yep, hockey is a team sport.

 

[arso40]

Yep, hockey is a team sport.

Unless the individual is marner ?

 

[francis246]

There are many reasons why we have only 1 single round win the last 9 years……….from bad luck to Covid and everything in between.
It simply can’t be the players because we all know they are so awesome

Shitty luck is like 5% , 95% on the players management.

Like Woll not playing because he tweaked his back o. A save he didn’t have to make with 1 second left is true bad luck. Perry destroying Tavares was bad luck as well. That robbed us of Game 1. There was no focus for a legit reason after that. I think those are the two unlucky things. Everything else was our own doing really

 

[Aashir]

Nah the two Covid seasons. He was legit the best RW in the league. 2022/2023 he was legit unbelieveable for the leafs. I would say from 2020-2023 he was worth his contract. Some underwhelming playoff performances but he was legit a goal scoring threat and good defensively those years especially 21/22

His 2023/24 season was also impressive. If he doesn’t get injured there for almost 15 games he probably finishes with close to 40 goals and above 100 points. He had 85 in 69GP and 26 goals.

Anyone who think Marner hasn’t been worth his contract during the regular season is out to lunch. Barring maybe 19-20 where he didn’t show improvement from the year prior, he’s been a 100 point player every year and ~30 goal scorer.

Personally find the 2022-2023 and 2021-2022 seasons as his peaks (so far). 21-22 was pure class offensively, with an almost 40 goal pace and 110 point pace, around top 8 in the league. 2022-23 was his best relative to the team, outscored nylander by 12 point and was a great two way player on a top 5 GAA team. Playoffs are another story, but regular season wise, he’s lived up to most expectations I’ve had since watching this team.

 

[Evilhomer]

Leafs have won the corsi / GF% / expected goals cup so many years...they don't raise banners for that though.

If Trudeau was still in charge, they would.

 

[LeafEgo]

Anyone who think Marner hasn’t been worth his contract during the regular season is out to lunch. Barring maybe 19-20 where he didn’t show improvement from the year prior, he’s been a 100 point player every year and ~30 goal scorer.

Personally find the 2022-2023 and 2021-2022 seasons as his peaks (so far). 21-22 was pure class offensively, with an almost 40 goal pace and 110 point pace, around top 8 in the league. 2022-23 was his best relative to the team, outscored nylander by 12 point and was a great two way player on a top 5 GAA team. Playoffs are another story, but regular season wise, he’s lived up to most expectations I’ve had since watching this team.

There's no constructive value at all in thinking about it this way. He was an RFA.

His contract created an unnecessary competitive disadvantage against the market - probably to the tune of 2-4M per annum amongst other cumulative hardships - which is the only thing that's important.

The price point was a debacle, there's no other useful/innovative perspective here.

100% Dubies fault btw.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Anyone who think Marner hasn’t been worth his contract during the regular season is out to lunch. Barring maybe 19-20 where he didn’t show improvement from the year prior, he’s been a 100 point player every year and ~30 goal scorer.

Personally find the 2022-2023 and 2021-2022 seasons as his peaks (so far). 21-22 was pure class offensively, with an almost 40 goal pace and 110 point pace, around top 8 in the league. 2022-23 was his best relative to the team, outscored nylander by 12 point and was a great two way player on a top 5 GAA team. Playoffs are another story, but regular season wise, he’s lived up to most expectations I’ve had since watching this team.

This year, sure. Over the entire contract, I'd say no. Close maybe, but still falls short IMHO.

It's too bad Dubas overpaid him, had he signed Marner for a fair price which would have been ~9m, then he'd have been like Nylander - overall good value for the money. Not great value in the early years, but in the later years overperformed for his cap hit.

Marner at 11m on the other hand, overall I don't think he's earned his pay, not even in the regular season. Last few years maybe, but that doesn't make up for the early years. He was a top 10 cap hit for years (even top 5 for a year or two if I'm not mistaken) and he's never been a top 10 player.

Before the Pauls start frothing, that's not on Marner, it's on Dubas. That contract was I'd say his 2nd biggest mistake as GM, the biggest was not moving on from Marner and reshaping the salary structure after losing to MTL.

If Trudeau was still in charge, they would.

Nah, they'd just light up the CN tower in MTL colors.

There's no constructive value at all in thinking about it this way. He was an RFA.

His contract created an unnecessary competitive disadvantage against the market - probably to the tune of 2-4M per annum amongst other cumulative hardships - which is the only thing that's important.

The price point was a debacle, there's no other useful/innovative perspective here.

100% Dubies fault btw.

Ha, I was just typing similar thoughts while you were posting this. I didn't mention he was an RFA but that's actually super important - that was leverage that we had, and Dubas was an idiot for not using it.

We have leverage now as well, I guess we'll soon find out if Tre has more brains than Dubas.

 

[Evilhomer]

That contract was I'd say his 2nd biggest mistake as GM, the biggest was not moving on from Marner and reshaping the salary structure after losing to MTL.

If there was ever going to be a change here, it was after that Montreal series. I tend to think that was the point of no return. When the team elected to not make any material changes after that series, they committed to tying the franchise to this group indefinitely. Hopefully it's a bet that pays off.

 

[notDatsyuk]

We haven't overvalued/overpaid for it. At least not with Marner. Marner has been worth his 10.9m every year.

Sorry, I'd forgotten you still believe that.

 

[Madap]

Correction Marner has won 3 major NHL awards.. NHL All Rookie Team in 2017 and 2x NHL First All Star Team in 2021 and 2022. So he’s won awards as those are considered major awards. But he has yet to win a major individual trophy.

I’m not in a hurry to sign Marner, but I’m also not in a hurry to punt a guy of his calibre out the door for nothing. It’s not that black and white in my opinion. For example a lot of people want to get rid of Marner to bring in Bennett. what the hell is Bennett gonna do on the leafs? They aren’t built like Florida so his effectiveness probably won’t be the same. Hell he barely scores for Florida right now.

My worry isn’t so much about letting Marner go, it’s that our GM’s/pro scouting staff haven’t proven that they are exceptional on July 1st. So arming them with 22 mill and expecting them to make no mistakes is silly IMO. I’m trying to think rationally.

We already struggle for offense and we want to punt a 90 point guy and get a bunch of 30/40 guys at the best and Hope combined they not only replace Marner’s offense but bring other elements to make us successful. It’s not far fetched or out of reach but it’s a tall task for any GM. I’m not sure you’d find a GM in the league that would openly say they that would agree with that strategy.

That’s of course a fair point, we have to replace him with useful players that are worth their cap. I guess the question becomes who do you trust more? The GM to do their job or Marner to do his in the playoffs? Marner has near a decade of playoff failure while Treliving has not had much free rein here, although jf Shanahan stays at the helm then I have zero trust in management.

I agree that not many GMs would let him go, however let’s not pretend like we are in a common situation. The Leafs playoff failures are unprecedented and it’s starting to seem like we need some different thinking than we’ve seen in the past.

 

[francis246]

That’s of course a fair point, we have to replace him with useful players that are worth their cap. I guess the question becomes who do you trust more? The GM to do their job or Marner to do his in the playoffs? Marner has near a decade of playoff failure while Treliving has not had much free rein here, although jf Shanahan stays at the helm then I have zero trust in management.

I agree that not many GMs would let him go, however let’s not pretend like we are in a common situation. The Leafs playoff failures are unprecedented and it’s starting to seem like we need some different thinking than we’ve seen in the past.

Agreed, I do think change might be necessary but I also feel like they already passed the point of changing the core. That should have been done through trade and when they didn’t do that after Montreal or after Florida before the NMC’s kicked in, They decided they were committed to this group.

I just don’t see us being able to replace Marner through UFA. I don’t. I really want to believe it but unless it’s Rantanen in and Marner out, there isn’t anything out there that would convince me we would be better. Maybe if you get Ehlers + Ekblad for a little more than Marner I might be swayed but again that’s two very injury prone guys who could be past their primes. Ehlers would bring more goal scoring but he’s also a small guy.

I personally believe we will see this core win a cup or make a cup finals. They are just too skilled, it might be longer than we expected but I think they find away to break through. Have always believed in this group even though they have let us down. They are good players and at the end of the day they want to be Maple Leafs, that’s gotta count for something. The core wants to win here, none of them want to jump ship. Nothing would be more satisfying than our home grown drafted stars leading us to glory.