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Miscellaneous NHL Discussion XCVI: Third Round (Poll in OP)

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On third thought, my pick to win the Cup is...

  • Lord Stanley will renew his Florida tan

    Votes: 5 14.7%

  • Lord Stanley will experience a Ghost sighting

    Votes: 23 67.6%

  • Lord Stanley is the brightest star in the sky

    Votes: 2 5.9%

  • Lord Stanley is about to double down

    Votes: 4 11.8%
  • Total voters
    34
  • Poll closed .
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Surrounded By Ahos said:
I would do that, but the Deserve-To-Win meter would start making me sad.
Click to expand...

3cb.gifv
 
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VladDrag said:
The stats at all three zones say they were, but there's nothing wrong with shooting from the points for deflections and rebounds, IF you're also generating high quality chances from the slot.

And clearly, Carolina was doing that.
Click to expand...

Yeah, there's a heaping difference between that, and shooting from the corners of the blueline with minimal or no net presence by design. Like a certain team did for years.
 
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VladDrag said:
The stats at all three zones say they were, but there's nothing wrong with shooting from the points for deflections and rebounds, IF you're also generating high quality chances from the slot.

And clearly, Carolina was doing that.
Click to expand...
Problem for Carolina is they were missing their two top "dirty area" scorers - the guys who can feast on those rebounds and set screens.
While it's nice to have nifty playmakers, you also want PFs to go to the net.
Torts pushed Tippett to go to the net and not settle for wrist shots from 20 feet. I'm sure he'll do the same with Foerster and Gauthier.
One key to beating good goalies is the big strong forward who can park near the net, screen the goalie, jump on rebounds and deflect shots.

One problem I had with Hayes and Voracek is they didn't do so, and JVR, while he had good hands around the net, tended to park on the side, which is really a strategy for smaller forwards like TK or Aho - a big boy should be willing to give and take punishment to crowd the goalie.

Strangely enough, Risto might have been our best net front "forward" last year, and was used in that role on the PP at times.
 
VladDrag said:
Tkachuck scored on a PP goal, which is not 5v5. Teams get better chances with PPs.

Carolina xGF/60 @ 5v5 Stats by round:

First round: 2.94
Second Round 2.84
Third Round 3.14

They had their best chances, statistically, in the third round against Florida. So they did not pad their stats against NJ.

I do have some issues with xG models/data being solely used to compare players, or how teams operate. I don't think it is as strong of a metric as many like to use it as, so I understand to a degree why you feel the way you do. But the xG model is very good at predicting shots that actually happened, and actually defining chances. It's best use, in my opinion, is evaluating team-wide scoring chances.

This is the shot map at 5v5 from last night.


View attachment 712535

This is the shot map from all situations.

View attachment 712536

If we play this game 100 times, which one are you picking?
Click to expand...
Thorough answer, & I appreciate it.

I’ve always had some issues with xGF, how it’s calculated, tracked, & used.

And it didn’t seem to match my & many others’ observations last night, for instance, wherein Carolina seemed by eye to have many volume/distance/low-% shots.

Nothing more to add besides that. Again, I appreciate your response.
 
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Striiker said:
I’d rather see Florida lose because they decided to lose with Giroux last year.

If they were going to win a cup, that was the one. They let him down, so f*** them forever and I hope they get moved to Arizona.

Plus, they killed the Ghost revenge tour dream. So double f*** them.
Click to expand...
Yeah but f*** vegas
 
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ajgoal said:
Fletcher traded Tuch to them so they'd pick Haula in expansion. Tuch was then traded to get Eichel.
Click to expand...

Yep. We pretty much owe the dominance of Vegas to Charles Danger Fletcher and Dale Tallon. Without the stupidity of those assholes, they wouldn't have been nearly good their 1st season which has set them up for success in subsequent seasons.
 
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ajgoal said:
Fletcher traded Tuch to them so they'd pick Haula in expansion. Tuch was then traded to get Eichel.
Click to expand...
Oh, gotcha. Didn’t realize what CEF meant initially.

I’d kill to see him get a new GM job, given he helps improve every team but his own and he owes us now.
 
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