Miscellaneous NHL Discussion XCVI: Third Round (Poll in OP)

[Ghosts Beer]

Insane stat:

 

[DancingPanther]

Its not that wild. Tkachuk was as good in the regular season and has been Conn Smythe level in the Playoffs. Still taking Hughes long term but its not outlandish to pick Tkachuk (other than the the biggest factor, the age gap).

Wilder than Minnesota, bro

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Insane stat:

The Flyers “rebuild” just had two years cut off of it.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I shall cheer for The Bob

 

[BernieParent]

I'm very confused about why you're all naming players who are competing for 2nd best American on their best day.

The Flyers “rebuild” just had two years cut off of it.

"Just get in and you never know."

Spoiler alert: we know.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

It’s interesting that the Canes are drawing a lot of heat for taking too many low-% shots, too many point shots, shooting for the sake of shooting.

Not what you’d expect from the stuff you read here about Brind’Amour being a creative offensive coach. In fact, it’s a strategy the same people who rave about Brind’Amour have blasted in other teams.

 

[VladDrag]

It’s interesting that the Canes are drawing a lot of heat for taking too many low-% shots, too many point shots, shooting for the sake of shooting.

Not what you’d expect from the stuff you read here about Brind’Amour being a creative offensive coach. In fact, it’s a strategy the same people who rave about Brind’Amour have blasted in other teams.

During both playoffs and regular season, Carolina basically lead the in xGF at 5v5...So even if they did take a few low% shots, they also had plenty of other goal scoring opportunities.

Playoffs

Regular Season

 

[DancingPanther]

"Just get in and you never know."

Spoiler alert: we know.

Said the Phillies for this season

 

[Ghosts Beer]

During both playoffs and regular season, Carolina basically lead the in xGF at 5v5...So even if they did take a few low% shots, they also had plenty of other goal scoring opportunities.

Playoffs
View attachment 712517

Regular Season
View attachment 712518

Did it look to you like Carolina had a ton of Grade A chances (I’m not saying that sarcastically; I’m genuinely curious)? It didn’t to me.

I mean, how many times did you see Carolina walk into the slot for an open shot like Tkachuk did on the winner?

I guess I’ve got to question how the stat is defined & tracked, & perhaps if Carolina padded its numbers against NJ.

 

[BernieParent]

Said the Phillies for this season

I am a baseball atheist.

 

[deadhead]

Did it look to you like Carolina had a ton of Grade A chances (I’m not saying that sarcastically; I’m genuinely curious)? It didn’t to me.

I mean, how many times did you see Carolina walk into the slot for an open shot like Tkachuk did on the winner?

I guess I’ve got to question how the stat is defined & tracked, & perhaps if Carolina padded its numbers against NJ.

I think they missed Svechnikov and Pacioretty more in the playoffs than the regular season, the windows get tighter and you need to be more physical in the dirty areas to generate HDCF. There was a shot by Ghost that typlified their situation, Aho was on the side of the net, looking for a deflection, but Ghost shot it into Bob's breadbasket with no screen - Aho is too small to park in front of a goalie, Ghost probably wasn't with Carolina long enough to have the chemistry to shoot it at Aho and let him try and deflect it.

This is one aspect of "luck," Carolina added big scorers to play a physical style of offense in the playoffs, then lost two of those forwards to injury.

You can pad your xGF against bad defenses in the regular season, not so much in the playoffs - since the surviving teams have been able to shut down opposing offenses there's often less room and time to operate.

What made Briere special in the playoffs is he had no fear, and went to the dirty areas and made things happen. Which is why I suspect the smaller players the Flyers draft will have similar qualities - maybe not as fast on their skates as prettier scorers, but with the hands, vision and true grit to score in crowds.

 

[wankstifier]

If the NHL wants to prevent concussions, they’ll need to ban hits where any part of the checker’s body drives into the head, even if not the initial or principal point of contact. The checker must be held more liable for damage. Defies logic that major head contact on high hits is viewed as unlucky and incidental instead of probable

 

[deadhead]

Did it look to you like Carolina had a ton of Grade A chances (I’m not saying that sarcastically; I’m genuinely curious)? It didn’t to me.

I mean, how many times did you see Carolina walk into the slot for an open shot like Tkachuk did on the winner?

I guess I’ve got to question how the stat is defined & tracked, & perhaps if Carolina padded its numbers against NJ.

Carolina - NYI: 5x5 SVA xGF 52.55%
Carolina - NJ 51.88%
Carolina - FLA 56.51%

xGF is based on where the shot is and type of shot, but it's a crude proxy.
But it'll weigh a shot from the slot much higher than one thirty feet away, but not sure they incorporate factors like screens, etc.

If the NHL wants to prevent concussions, they’ll need to ban hits where any part of the checker’s body drives into the head, even if not the initial or principal point of contact. The checker must be held more liable for damage. Defies logic that major head contact on high hits is viewed as unlucky and incidental instead of probable

Might as well ban hitting, period, and make the NHL the equivalent of flag football.
I'd like to see the data, but I'd suspect the crack down on dirty hits (elbows, boarding, etc) has greatly reduced the rate of concussions.

 

[Beef Invictus]

It’s interesting that the Canes are drawing a lot of heat for taking too many low-% shots, too many point shots, shooting for the sake of shooting.

Not what you’d expect from the stuff you read here about Brind’Amour being a creative offensive coach. In fact, it’s a strategy the same people who rave about Brind’Amour have blasted in other teams.

They also take a shitload of high quality shots.

Rod's creativity shines through on designed plays off faceoffs and in entries, and often to set up those high quality shots. You're not noticing that? Or is it deliberate contrarianism?

 

[gertbfrobe16]

If the NHL wants to prevent concussions, they’ll need to ban hits where any part of the checker’s body drives into the head, even if not the initial or principal point of contact. The checker must be held more liable for damage. Defies logic that major head contact on high hits is viewed as unlucky and incidental instead of probable

They might accomplish this by not allowing skates to leave the ice on hits, even on follow through. That seems to be where most of the incidental head contact occurs.

 

[Tripod]

Plays the gotcha card of Canes taking lots of shots from outside

Is countered with not so fast card that proves that isn't the case

Comes back with I don't trust the vality of those stats


I think I have seen this before

 

[Ghosts Beer]

xGF is based on where the shot is and type of shot, but it's a crude proxy.
But it'll weigh a shot from the slot much higher than one thirty feet away, but not sure they incorporate factors like screens, etc.

Who’s doing the tracking? I presume someone different at every home arena?

This is why giveaways, for example, are tracked so unreliably. And hits. Are the real-time trackers in Carolina more generous with their shot logging?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Did it look to you like Carolina had a ton of Grade A chances (I’m not saying that sarcastically; I’m genuinely curious)? It didn’t to me.

I mean, how many times did you see Carolina walk into the slot for an open shot like Tkachuk did on the winner?

I guess I’ve got to question how the stat is defined & tracked, & perhaps if Carolina padded its numbers against NJ.

Yes it did look like they did, because they did. That's why I'm so heavy with the Bob praise. The stats matched what happened. You were wrong. Take the L instead of waging war on math and easy, simple counting done by professionals.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Who’s doing the tracking? I presume someone different at every home arena?

This is why giveaways, for example, are tracked so unreliably. And hits. Are the real-time trackers in Carolina more generous with their shot logging?

You can easily check this by breaking down stats by home and away. If there's an abnormal disparity, then you know. I bet there isn't.

 

[VladDrag]

Did it look to you like Carolina had a ton of Grade A chances (I’m not saying that sarcastically; I’m genuinely curious)? It didn’t to me.

I mean, how many times did you see Carolina walk into the slot for an open shot like Tkachuk did on the winner?

I guess I’ve got to question how the stat is defined & tracked, & perhaps if Carolina padded its numbers against NJ.

Tkachuck scored on a PP goal, which is not 5v5. Teams get better chances with PPs.

Carolina xGF/60 @ 5v5 Stats by round:

First round: 2.94
Second Round 2.84
Third Round 3.14

They had their best chances, statistically, in the third round against Florida. So they did not pad their stats against NJ.

I do have some issues with xG models/data being solely used to compare players, or how teams operate. I don't think it is as strong of a metric as many like to use it as, so I understand to a degree why you feel the way you do. But the xG model is very good at predicting shots that actually happened, and actually defining chances. It's best use, in my opinion, is evaluating team-wide scoring chances.

This is the shot map at 5v5 from last night.

This is the shot map from all situations.

If we play this game 100 times, which one are you picking?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Carolina, especially after all of the key injuries, was kind of built to rely on a volume over quality strategy because they are probably the best puck retrieval team in the league.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You can pull up Moneypuck during a game and verify shots as they appear on the tracker. It's neat. It's also more than accurate enough. You don't need baseball levels of precision. Shots don't get wildly misplaced to a degree that it impacts the models.

 

[Tripod]

Oohhh....someone played the double down card.

Then was proven wrong again.

I bet this is where he says oops, I guess I was wrong.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

You can pull up Moneypuck during a game and verify shots as they appear on the tracker. It's neat. It's also more than accurate enough.

I would do that, but the Deserve-To-Win meter would start making me sad.

 

[VladDrag]

Carolina, especially after all of the key injuries, was kind of built to rely on a volume over quality strategy because they are probably the best puck retrieval team in the league.

The stats at all three zones say they were, but there's nothing wrong with shooting from the points for deflections and rebounds, IF you're also generating high quality chances from the slot.

And clearly, Carolina was doing that.