NHL Talk Miscellaneous NHL Discussion CIX: Processing a Tremendous Amount of Insane Information

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What's more is we have a valuation on not just any goalie prospect, but an unhappy one who just asked for a trade after an 8 yr deal was given to the incumbent. Not exactly a market setting move.

The Flyers list of untouchables probably included Noah Cates
Flyers list of touchables:
- Morgan Frost
 
must be nice to have a plan and actualy commit to it instead of spewing verbal poo ...
It's a good start for them for sure.

I think they provide a nice compare and contrast option for us fans to look at over the next few years. They are basically doing what a lot of people here wanted. A full tear down and then a rebuild.

It will be interesting to see which team is doing better 3-4 years from now.
 
I don’t think the flyers should be trade 1sts for a goalie. I think they have a 2C. Outside of that, a goalie is the next best thing we have lined up.
Goalie is the last position you should trade assets to fill if you're rebuilding.
Reason is that a goalie can make a mediocre team look better than it is and force you to draft lower.

Rangers are a good example,
2021-22: xGF% 47.20 (23), PO 39.68% (15)
2022-23: xGF% 49.71 (18), PO 42.58% (16)
2023-24: xGF% 49.28 (20), PO 43.59% (14)

GA - xGA
2021-22: -29, PO -25
2022-23: -27, PO -9
2023-24: -23, PO -12

GF - xGF
2021-22: +16, PO: +5
2022-23: +7, PO: -3
2023-24: +10, PO +1

STs (net goals for and against)
2021-22: +16, PO: +6
2022-23: +20, PO: -1
2023-24: +31, PO: +9

Rangers drafts last four years:
2024: Emery D #30, no 2nd, 3rd
2023: Perreault #23, no 2nd, Fortescue #90
2022: no 1st, Sykora #63, McConnell-Barker #97
2021: Othmann #16, no 2nd, Grubbe #65, Korczak #75
4 previous drafts, LaFreniere #1, Schneider #19, Kukko #2, Kravtsov #9, Miller #22, Lundqvist #28, Andersson #7, Chytil #21
 
Wait wait, hold the phone.

It's bad for rebuilding teams to win and finish higher in the standings?
It's bad if it's driven by a goalie, like the Flyers in 2015-16, which convinced Hextall to stop the rebuild for two years, before Mason's meltdown exposed how mediocre the rest of the team was.

Ersson's meltdown was timed perfectly, b/c the team was competitive until the last couple weeks, giving young players experience playing games that mattered, then picked #12 and got a shot at a top 6 center.
 
It's bad if it's driven by a goalie, like the Flyers in 2015-16, which convinced Hextall to stop the rebuild for two years, before Mason's meltdown exposed how mediocre the rest of the team was.

Ersson's meltdown was timed perfectly, b/c the team was competitive until the last couple weeks, giving young players experience playing games that mattered, then picked #12 and got a shot at a top 6 center.

Hextall stopped the rebuild?
 
1724688165171.png
 
Between summer 2015 and the Schenn trade, Hextall sat on his hands.
1/6/16 Vinnie & L Schenn for Weal and a 2016 3rd
7/1/16 signed Weise (28) to 4 year deal
3/1/17 Streit for Filppula and 2017 4th
6/16/17 Cousins for 2018 5th

6/23/17 B Schenn for Lehtera and 2017, 2018 1st

2017 team: G (30), Voracek (28), Simmonds (29), Filppula (33), Raffl (29), Weise (29), Lehtera (30), MacDonald (31),
25 and under: Couts (25), TK (20), Lindblom (21), Patrick (19), Laughton (23), Weal (25), Provorov (21), Ghost (24), Sanheim (21), Hagg (22)

So what was Hextall's strategy? This is four years after he took over in 2014.
 
Between summer 2015 and the Schenn trade, Hextall sat on his hands.
1/6/16 Vinnie & L Schenn for Weal and a 2016 3rd
7/1/16 signed Weise (28) to 4 year deal
3/1/17 Streit for Filppula and 2017 4th
6/16/17 Cousins for 2018 5th

6/23/17 B Schenn for Lehtera and 2017, 2018 1st

2017 team: G (30), Voracek (28), Simmonds (29), Filppula (33), Raffl (29), Weise (29), Lehtera (30), MacDonald (31),
25 and under: Couts (25), TK (20), Lindblom (21), Patrick (19), Laughton (23), Weal (25), Provorov (21), Ghost (24), Sanheim (21), Hagg (22)

So what was Hextall's strategy? This is four years after he took over in 2014.
Run the clock on all of Holmgren’s terrible contracts
 
Between summer 2015 and the Schenn trade, Hextall sat on his hands.
1/6/16 Vinnie & L Schenn for Weal and a 2016 3rd
7/1/16 signed Weise (28) to 4 year deal
3/1/17 Streit for Filppula and 2017 4th
6/16/17 Cousins for 2018 5th

6/23/17 B Schenn for Lehtera and 2017, 2018 1st

2017 team: G (30), Voracek (28), Simmonds (29), Filppula (33), Raffl (29), Weise (29), Lehtera (30), MacDonald (31),
25 and under: Couts (25), TK (20), Lindblom (21), Patrick (19), Laughton (23), Weal (25), Provorov (21), Ghost (24), Sanheim (21), Hagg (22)

So what was Hextall's strategy? This is four years after he took over in 2014.
Much like Chuck and not Danny there really is none.
 
So counting on better than average outcomes on the young guys you draft is sitting in your hands? Filing that one away for every discussion this year.
Four years after he starts a rebuild, 8 of 22 are 29 or older.

His core of young players was basically Couts (25), TK (20), Lindblom (21), Patrick (19), Laughton (23), Provorov (21), Ghost (24), Sanheim (21). Adds Frost and Farabee in the 2017/2018 drafts, but we're now 5 years into a "rebuild."

They had some bad luck with Patrick and Lindblom, but I'd expect a deeper pool of young talent.
He missed a lot of 1st and 2nd rd picks,
2014: NAK #48, 2016: Rubtsov #22, Laberge #36, Allison #52, 2017: Patrick #2, Ratcliffe #35, 2018: O'Brien #19, Ginning #50.

Hextall simply wouldn't tear it down and couldn't build it up.
Holmgren could have rebuilt in 2012, Hextall had the mandate in 2014, Holmgren was right to fire Hextall but should have rebuilt after 2018-19.
 
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Four years after he starts a rebuild, 8 of 22 are 29 or older.

His core of young players was basically Couts (25), TK (20), Lindblom (21), Patrick (19), Laughton (23), Provorov (21), Ghost (24), Sanheim (21). Adds Frost and Farabee in the 2017/2018 drafts, but we're now 5 years into a "rebuild."

They had some bad luck with Patrick and Lindblom, but I'd expect a deeper pool of young talent.
He missed a lot of 1st and 2nd rd picks,
2014: NAK #48, 2016: Rubtsov #22, Laberge #36, Allison #52, 2017: Patrick #2, Ratcliffe #35, 2018: O'Brien #19, Ginning #50.

Hextall simply wouldn't tear it down and couldn't build it up.
Holmgren could have rebuilt in 2012, Hextall had the mandate in 2014, Holmgren was right to fire Hextall but should have rebuilt after 2018-19.

So that group is heading into 2017-18 im this scenario. I have to tell you, I find that a significantly better base than what they have today, even with Michkov. Remember, this is before Patrick plays an NHL game.

You’ll point to them betting everything on the ‘25 draft and you won’t be wrong. But you’ll trust them to hit a home run and I’ll sit here thinking about their stated reasons for passing on Buium. Around and around we go.
 

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